Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027?
open
Total volume
$2,477
Trades
114
Unique wallets
44
Liquidity
$2,176
Latest YES mid
12¢
Latest NO mid
88¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-06-02
last 08-10 22:33
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
+58.2¢
(top1%: 95% YES on $200
vs crowd: 36% YES on $879)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 8 | $212 | $52 | +$160 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 7 | $18 | $121 | $103 |
| 🐟 Fish | 7 | $12 | $104 | $92 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 22 | $79 | $282 | $203 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 3 | $189 | $11 | +$179 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 2 | $14 | $52 | $38 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 5 | $20 | $97 | $77 |
| Median | 3 | $2 | $104 | $102 |
| Below median | 6 | $1 | — | +$1 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 2 | $14 | — | +$14 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 1 | — | — | +— |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 1 | — | — | +— |
| unranked | 21 | $79 | $295 | $217 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mundane-Hood 0x5e73…6697 | Yes | +1,410 | $186 | $186 | 1 | 08-07 12:48 |
| (anonymous) 0x82b8…1b3b | Yes | +98 | $35 | $35 | 1 | 06-22 11:07 |
| Flaky-Shadow 0xd1ee…a8ae | No | +91 | $87 | $87 | 1 | 08-10 22:33 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +81 | $52 | $52 | 3 | 06-28 23:27 |
| Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | +80 | $11 | $12 | 4 | 07-25 06:55 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +61 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 08-10 22:33 |
| (anonymous) 0x97e1…7efa | No | +55 | $52 | $52 | 1 | 08-04 20:58 |
| (anonymous) 0xc85c…36c7 | No | +53 | $50 | $50 | 1 | 08-07 12:48 |
| (anonymous) 0x4083…05e5 | No | +53 | $50 | $50 | 1 | 08-07 12:48 |
| Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | +30 | $-2 | $43 | 5 | 08-10 22:33 |
| Terrible-Ordinary 0x0a6d…1d0a | Yes | +27 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 07-13 09:59 |
| Greedy-Neighbourhood 0x6ffd…a637 | No | +19 | $11 | $11 | 1 | 06-11 10:54 |
| Live-Aunt 0xf829…91ec | No | +11 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 08-01 21:40 |
| (anonymous) 0x783e…5a19 | No | +6 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 08-07 12:48 |
| (anonymous) 0x4bac…5e79 | No | +5 | $4 | $23 | 2 | 07-08 16:35 |
| Frivolous-Countryside 0x35e1…f41d | No | +5 | $-3 | $100 | 2 | 08-04 20:58 |
| (anonymous) 0xfe91…4cd3 | No | +5 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 08-07 12:48 |
| (anonymous) 0x4bac…5e79 | Yes | +5 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 07-08 16:35 |
| (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | +5 | $2 | $20 | 9 | 08-07 12:48 |
| Candid-Nut 0xcb3b…a2b6 | Yes | +1 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 08-01 21:40 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-10 22:33:10 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 30 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xe67695… |
| 08-10 22:33:10 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 61 | 4¢ | $2 | 0xe67695… |
| 08-10 22:33:10 | Flaky-Shadow 0xd1ee…a8ae | No | BUY | 91 | 96¢ | $87 | 0xe67695… |
| 08-07 12:48:37 | Low-Junior 0xa2fb…ff75 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xf4def7… |
| 08-07 12:48:37 | (anonymous) 0xbe90…acb5 | No | SELL | 1 | 98¢ | $1 | 0xf4def7… |
| 08-07 12:48:36 | Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418 | Yes | SELL | 1,254 | 14¢ | $176 | 0xaec522… |
| 08-07 12:48:36 | (anonymous) 0xfe91…4cd3 | No | BUY | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0xaec522… |
| 08-07 12:48:36 | Mundane-Hood 0x5e73…6697 | Yes | BUY | 1,410 | 13¢ | $186 | 0xaec522… |
| 08-07 12:48:36 | United-Welcome 0x2afd…deb4 | Yes | SELL | 16 | 6¢ | $1 | 0xaec522… |
| 08-07 12:48:36 | (anonymous) 0x4083…05e5 | No | BUY | 53 | 94¢ | $50 | 0xaec522… |
| 08-07 12:48:36 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | SELL | 18 | 6¢ | $1 | 0xaec522… |
| 08-07 12:48:36 | (anonymous) 0xc85c…36c7 | No | BUY | 53 | 94¢ | $50 | 0xaec522… |
| 08-07 12:48:36 | (anonymous) 0xd81e…0fe5 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 13¢ | $1 | 0xaec522… |
| 08-07 12:48:36 | (anonymous) 0x783e…5a19 | No | BUY | 6 | 86¢ | $5 | 0xaec522… |
| 08-04 20:58:59 | (anonymous) 0x97e1…7efa | No | BUY | 55 | 94¢ | $52 | 0xf6bfcd… |
| 08-04 20:58:59 | Frivolous-Countryside 0x35e1…f41d | No | SELL | 55 | 94¢ | $52 | 0xf6bfcd… |
| 08-01 21:40:54 | Candid-Nut 0xcb3b…a2b6 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 1¢ | $0 | 0xecc65d… |
| 08-01 21:40:54 | Live-Aunt 0xf829…91ec | No | BUY | 11 | 93¢ | $10 | 0xecc65d… |
| 08-01 21:40:54 | Terrific-Subprime 0x06af…3741 | No | SELL | 9 | 92¢ | $9 | 0xecc65d… |
| 07-25 06:56:00 | Low-Junior 0xa2fb…ff75 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 8¢ | $0 | 0xecad4c… |
| 07-25 06:56:00 | Terrific-Subprime 0x06af…3741 | No | SELL | 1 | 92¢ | $1 | 0xecad4c… |
| 07-25 06:55:58 | (anonymous) 0xd81e…0fe5 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 9¢ | $0 | 0x2bb50c… |
| 07-25 06:55:58 | Terrific-Subprime 0x06af…3741 | No | SELL | 584 | 92¢ | $540 | 0x2bb50c… |
| 07-25 06:55:58 | Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418 | Yes | SELL | 645 | 8¢ | $49 | 0x2bb50c… |
| 07-25 06:55:58 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 40 | 9¢ | $4 | 0x2bb50c… |
| 07-25 06:55:58 | United-Welcome 0x2afd…deb4 | Yes | BUY | 17 | 9¢ | $1 | 0x2bb50c… |
| 07-23 13:24:19 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | BUY | 0 | 9¢ | $0 | 0xb4ec0b… |
| 07-23 13:24:19 | Low-Junior 0xa2fb…ff75 | Yes | SELL | 0 | 9¢ | $0 | 0xb4ec0b… |
| 07-23 13:24:18 | Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418 | Yes | SELL | 185 | 19¢ | $34 | 0xc49fb8… |
| 07-23 13:24:18 | Sardonic-Cue 0x8a7b…782f | No | SELL | 185 | 81¢ | $151 | 0xc49fb8… |
| 07-21 14:35:48 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 40 | 19¢ | $8 | 0x38a05e… |
| 07-21 14:35:48 | Frivolous-Countryside 0x35e1…f41d | No | BUY | 60 | 81¢ | $49 | 0x38a05e… |
| 07-21 14:35:48 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | BUY | 20 | 19¢ | $4 | 0x38a05e… |
| 07-17 16:34:52 | (anonymous) 0x7b2c…c9a8 | Yes | BUY | 0 | 19¢ | $0 | 0x25634b… |
| 07-17 16:34:52 | Low-Junior 0xa2fb…ff75 | Yes | SELL | 0 | 19¢ | $0 | 0x25634b… |
| 07-17 16:34:51 | (anonymous) 0x8d52…094c | No | SELL | 34 | 65¢ | $22 | 0x9e60ea… |
| 07-17 16:34:51 | Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418 | Yes | SELL | 34 | 35¢ | $12 | 0x9e60ea… |
| 07-16 01:43:16 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | SELL | 3 | 21¢ | $1 | 0x1989e8… |
| 07-16 01:43:16 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | BUY | 3 | 21¢ | $1 | 0x1989e8… |
| 07-15 02:04:53 | (anonymous) 0x6e0d…4483 | Yes | SELL | 3 | 14¢ | $0 | 0x0cfa75… |
| 07-15 02:04:53 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 3 | 14¢ | $0 | 0x0cfa75… |
| 07-15 01:03:07 | (anonymous) 0x6e0d…4483 | Yes | BUY | 3 | 35¢ | $1 | 0x05eb02… |
| 07-15 01:03:07 | Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418 | Yes | SELL | 3 | 35¢ | $1 | 0x05eb02… |
| 07-13 09:59:46 | Astonishing-Eve 0xad99…53f6 | No | SELL | 7 | 73¢ | $5 | 0x158bde… |
| 07-13 09:59:46 | Terrible-Ordinary 0x0a6d…1d0a | Yes | BUY | 27 | 14¢ | $4 | 0x158bde… |
| 07-13 09:59:46 | (anonymous) 0x8d52…094c | No | BUY | 34 | 83¢ | $28 | 0x158bde… |
| 07-08 16:35:28 | Juvenile-Hypothesis 0x3bef…f04e | No | SELL | 6 | 66¢ | $4 | 0xd9187d… |
| 07-08 16:35:28 | (anonymous) 0x4bac…5e79 | No | SELL | 14 | 66¢ | $9 | 0xd9187d… |
| 07-08 16:35:28 | Terrific-Subprime 0x06af…3741 | No | BUY | 25 | 66¢ | $17 | 0xd9187d… |
| 07-08 16:35:28 | (anonymous) 0x4bac…5e79 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 34¢ | $2 | 0xd9187d… |
| 07-01 21:09:20 | Juvenile-Hypothesis 0x3bef…f04e | No | SELL | 0 | 66¢ | $0 | 0x282388… |
| 07-01 21:09:20 | Low-Junior 0xa2fb…ff75 | Yes | SELL | 0 | 34¢ | $0 | 0x282388… |
| 07-01 21:09:19 | Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418 | Yes | SELL | 78 | 35¢ | $27 | 0x134c71… |
| 07-01 21:09:19 | (anonymous) 0x4a7c…1dc7 | No | SELL | 78 | 65¢ | $51 | 0x134c71… |
| 06-28 23:49:07 | Low-Junior 0xa2fb…ff75 | Yes | SELL | 0 | 31¢ | $0 | 0xeb29e9… |
| 06-28 23:49:07 | Juvenile-Hypothesis 0x3bef…f04e | No | SELL | 0 | 69¢ | $0 | 0xeb29e9… |
| 06-28 23:49:05 | (anonymous) 0xbd87…286b | No | SELL | 18 | 65¢ | $12 | 0xd5f927… |
| 06-28 23:49:05 | Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418 | Yes | SELL | 18 | 35¢ | $6 | 0xd5f927… |
| 06-28 23:27:14 | Juvenile-Hypothesis 0x3bef…f04e | No | SELL | 0 | 69¢ | $0 | 0x8346b0… |
| 06-28 23:27:14 | Low-Junior 0xa2fb…ff75 | Yes | SELL | 0 | 31¢ | $0 | 0x8346b0… |
| 06-28 23:27:13 | (anonymous) 0xbd87…286b | No | SELL | 54 | 65¢ | $35 | 0x2ad5c7… |
| 06-28 23:27:13 | Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418 | Yes | SELL | 34 | 35¢ | $12 | 0x2ad5c7… |
| 06-28 23:27:13 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 20 | 65¢ | $13 | 0x2ad5c7… |
| 06-25 22:09:34 | Low-Junior 0xa2fb…ff75 | Yes | SELL | 0 | 30¢ | $0 | 0x1aa0a0… |
| 06-25 22:09:34 | Juvenile-Hypothesis 0x3bef…f04e | No | SELL | 0 | 70¢ | $0 | 0x1aa0a0… |
| 06-25 22:09:32 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | SELL | 7 | 34¢ | $2 | 0x99bb81… |
| 06-25 22:09:32 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 46 | 35¢ | $16 | 0x99bb81… |
| 06-25 22:09:32 | Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418 | Yes | SELL | 173 | 35¢ | $60 | 0x99bb81… |
| 06-25 22:09:32 | Evergreen-Wifi 0x71ed…d338 | No | SELL | 226 | 65¢ | $147 | 0x99bb81… |
| 06-24 09:55:35 | (anonymous) 0x4bac…5e79 | No | BUY | 19 | 71¢ | $13 | 0xb27e13… |
| 06-24 09:55:35 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | SELL | 9 | 29¢ | $3 | 0xb27e13… |
| 06-24 09:55:35 | Whirlwind-Logistics 0x21bc…4681 | No | SELL | 53 | 71¢ | $38 | 0xb27e13… |
| 06-24 09:55:35 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 25 | 29¢ | $7 | 0xb27e13… |
| 06-24 08:08:10 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | BUY | 16 | 28¢ | $4 | 0xfa8e64… |
| 06-24 08:08:10 | (anonymous) 0x2503…9be5 | Yes | SELL | 26 | 28¢ | $7 | 0xfa8e64… |
| 06-24 08:08:10 | Sardonic-Cue 0x8a7b…782f | No | SELL | 11 | 72¢ | $8 | 0xfa8e64… |
| 06-22 20:55:34 | Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | No | SELL | 8 | 71¢ | $6 | 0xe23800… |
| 06-22 20:55:34 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 29¢ | $7 | 0xe23800… |
| 06-22 20:55:34 | (anonymous) 0x4a7c…1dc7 | No | BUY | 78 | 71¢ | $55 | 0xe23800… |
| 06-22 20:55:34 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 45 | 29¢ | $13 | 0xe23800… |
| 06-22 11:23:58 | Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | No | SELL | 7 | 71¢ | $5 | 0x1bc4e0… |
| 06-22 11:23:58 | Astonishing-Eve 0xad99…53f6 | No | BUY | 7 | 71¢ | $5 | 0x1bc4e0… |
| 06-22 11:07:43 | (anonymous) 0x82b8…1b3b | Yes | BUY | 98 | 36¢ | $35 | 0x65986d… |
| 06-22 11:07:43 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 25 | 36¢ | $9 | 0x65986d… |
| 06-22 11:07:43 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 58 | 64¢ | $38 | 0x65986d… |
| 06-22 11:07:43 | Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | No | BUY | 15 | 64¢ | $10 | 0x65986d… |
| 06-22 04:57:02 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | SELL | 7 | 35¢ | $3 | 0x2eef90… |
| 06-22 04:57:02 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 19 | 35¢ | $7 | 0x2eef90… |
| 06-22 04:57:02 | (anonymous) 0x2503…9be5 | Yes | BUY | 26 | 35¢ | $9 | 0x2eef90… |
| 06-22 02:02:07 | Whirlwind-Logistics 0x21bc…4681 | No | BUY | 45 | 72¢ | $32 | 0x5940f0… |
| 06-22 02:02:07 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 28¢ | $7 | 0x5940f0… |
| 06-22 02:02:07 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 20 | 29¢ | $6 | 0x5940f0… |
| 06-22 02:01:25 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | BUY | 8 | 29¢ | $2 | 0xfcb15d… |
| 06-22 02:01:25 | Whirlwind-Logistics 0x21bc…4681 | No | BUY | 8 | 71¢ | $6 | 0xfcb15d… |
| 06-11 10:54:54 | Greedy-Neighbourhood 0x6ffd…a637 | No | BUY | 19 | 57¢ | $11 | 0xd0bfa4… |
| 06-11 10:54:54 | Juvenile-Hypothesis 0x3bef…f04e | No | SELL | 5 | 57¢ | $3 | 0xd0bfa4… |
| 06-11 10:54:54 | Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | No | SELL | 7 | 57¢ | $4 | 0xd0bfa4… |
| 06-08 21:39:07 | Favorable-Cue 0x971a…0126 | No | SELL | 2 | 50¢ | $1 | 0x3ca867… |
| 06-08 21:39:07 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 2 | 50¢ | $1 | 0x3ca867… |
| 06-08 21:38:48 | Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | No | SELL | 1 | 56¢ | $1 | 0xec9d7e… |