Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027?
open
Total volume
$843
Trades
64
Unique wallets
26
Liquidity
$2,176
Latest YES mid
34¢
Latest NO mid
66¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-06-02
last 07-01 21:09
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-33.9¢
(top1%: 0% YES on $11
vs crowd: 34% YES on $314)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 5 | $19 | $52 | $33 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 6 | $14 | $34 | $20 |
| 🐟 Fish | 3 | — | — | +— |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 12 | $73 | $122 | $49 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 1 | — | $11 | $11 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 1 | — | $52 | $52 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 4 | $19 | $10 | +$9 |
| Median | 2 | — | $36 | $36 |
| Below median | 4 | — | — | +— |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 2 | $14 | — | +$14 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 1 | — | — | +— |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 1 | — | — | +— |
| unranked | 10 | $73 | $99 | $26 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (anonymous) 0x82b8…1b3b | Yes | +98 | $35 | $35 | 1 | 06-22 11:07 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +81 | $52 | $52 | 3 | 06-28 23:27 |
| Terrific-Subprime 0x06af…3741 | No | +41 | $22 | $22 | 1 | 06-03 22:06 |
| Greedy-Neighbourhood 0x6ffd…a637 | No | +19 | $11 | $11 | 1 | 06-11 10:54 |
| (anonymous) 0x4bac…5e79 | No | +19 | $13 | $13 | 1 | 06-24 09:55 |
| Astonishing-Eve 0xad99…53f6 | No | +7 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-22 11:23 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-01 21:09:20 | Low-Junior 0xa2fb…ff75 | Yes | SELL | 0 | 34¢ | $0 | 0x282388… |
| 07-01 21:09:20 | Juvenile-Hypothesis 0x3bef…f04e | No | SELL | 0 | 66¢ | $0 | 0x282388… |
| 07-01 21:09:19 | (anonymous) 0x4a7c…1dc7 | No | SELL | 78 | 65¢ | $51 | 0x134c71… |
| 07-01 21:09:19 | Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418 | Yes | SELL | 78 | 35¢ | $27 | 0x134c71… |
| 06-28 23:49:07 | Low-Junior 0xa2fb…ff75 | Yes | SELL | 0 | 31¢ | $0 | 0xeb29e9… |
| 06-28 23:49:07 | Juvenile-Hypothesis 0x3bef…f04e | No | SELL | 0 | 69¢ | $0 | 0xeb29e9… |
| 06-28 23:49:05 | Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418 | Yes | SELL | 18 | 35¢ | $6 | 0xd5f927… |
| 06-28 23:49:05 | (anonymous) 0xbd87…286b | No | SELL | 18 | 65¢ | $12 | 0xd5f927… |
| 06-28 23:27:14 | Low-Junior 0xa2fb…ff75 | Yes | SELL | 0 | 31¢ | $0 | 0x8346b0… |
| 06-28 23:27:14 | Juvenile-Hypothesis 0x3bef…f04e | No | SELL | 0 | 69¢ | $0 | 0x8346b0… |
| 06-28 23:27:13 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 20 | 65¢ | $13 | 0x2ad5c7… |
| 06-28 23:27:13 | (anonymous) 0xbd87…286b | No | SELL | 54 | 65¢ | $35 | 0x2ad5c7… |
| 06-28 23:27:13 | Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418 | Yes | SELL | 34 | 35¢ | $12 | 0x2ad5c7… |
| 06-25 22:09:34 | Juvenile-Hypothesis 0x3bef…f04e | No | SELL | 0 | 70¢ | $0 | 0x1aa0a0… |
| 06-25 22:09:34 | Low-Junior 0xa2fb…ff75 | Yes | SELL | 0 | 30¢ | $0 | 0x1aa0a0… |
| 06-25 22:09:32 | Evergreen-Wifi 0x71ed…d338 | No | SELL | 226 | 65¢ | $147 | 0x99bb81… |
| 06-25 22:09:32 | Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418 | Yes | SELL | 173 | 35¢ | $60 | 0x99bb81… |
| 06-25 22:09:32 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | SELL | 7 | 34¢ | $2 | 0x99bb81… |
| 06-25 22:09:32 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 46 | 35¢ | $16 | 0x99bb81… |
| 06-24 09:55:35 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | SELL | 9 | 29¢ | $3 | 0xb27e13… |
| 06-24 09:55:35 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 25 | 29¢ | $7 | 0xb27e13… |
| 06-24 09:55:35 | (anonymous) 0x4bac…5e79 | No | BUY | 19 | 71¢ | $13 | 0xb27e13… |
| 06-24 09:55:35 | Whirlwind-Logistics 0x21bc…4681 | No | SELL | 53 | 71¢ | $38 | 0xb27e13… |
| 06-24 08:08:10 | (anonymous) 0x2503…9be5 | Yes | SELL | 26 | 28¢ | $7 | 0xfa8e64… |
| 06-24 08:08:10 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | BUY | 16 | 28¢ | $4 | 0xfa8e64… |
| 06-24 08:08:10 | Sardonic-Cue 0x8a7b…782f | No | SELL | 11 | 72¢ | $8 | 0xfa8e64… |
| 06-22 20:55:34 | Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | No | SELL | 8 | 71¢ | $6 | 0xe23800… |
| 06-22 20:55:34 | (anonymous) 0x4a7c…1dc7 | No | BUY | 78 | 71¢ | $55 | 0xe23800… |
| 06-22 20:55:34 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 45 | 29¢ | $13 | 0xe23800… |
| 06-22 20:55:34 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 29¢ | $7 | 0xe23800… |
| 06-22 11:23:58 | Astonishing-Eve 0xad99…53f6 | No | BUY | 7 | 71¢ | $5 | 0x1bc4e0… |
| 06-22 11:23:58 | Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | No | SELL | 7 | 71¢ | $5 | 0x1bc4e0… |
| 06-22 11:07:43 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 58 | 64¢ | $38 | 0x65986d… |
| 06-22 11:07:43 | Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | No | BUY | 15 | 64¢ | $10 | 0x65986d… |
| 06-22 11:07:43 | (anonymous) 0x82b8…1b3b | Yes | BUY | 98 | 36¢ | $35 | 0x65986d… |
| 06-22 11:07:43 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 25 | 36¢ | $9 | 0x65986d… |
| 06-22 04:57:02 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | SELL | 7 | 35¢ | $3 | 0x2eef90… |
| 06-22 04:57:02 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 19 | 35¢ | $7 | 0x2eef90… |
| 06-22 04:57:02 | (anonymous) 0x2503…9be5 | Yes | BUY | 26 | 35¢ | $9 | 0x2eef90… |
| 06-22 02:02:07 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 28¢ | $7 | 0x5940f0… |
| 06-22 02:02:07 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 20 | 29¢ | $6 | 0x5940f0… |
| 06-22 02:02:07 | Whirlwind-Logistics 0x21bc…4681 | No | BUY | 45 | 72¢ | $32 | 0x5940f0… |
| 06-22 02:01:25 | Whirlwind-Logistics 0x21bc…4681 | No | BUY | 8 | 71¢ | $6 | 0xfcb15d… |
| 06-22 02:01:25 | (anonymous) 0x5146…ac5e | Yes | BUY | 8 | 29¢ | $2 | 0xfcb15d… |
| 06-11 10:54:54 | Juvenile-Hypothesis 0x3bef…f04e | No | SELL | 5 | 57¢ | $3 | 0xd0bfa4… |
| 06-11 10:54:54 | Greedy-Neighbourhood 0x6ffd…a637 | No | BUY | 19 | 57¢ | $11 | 0xd0bfa4… |
| 06-11 10:54:54 | Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | No | SELL | 7 | 57¢ | $4 | 0xd0bfa4… |
| 06-08 21:39:07 | Favorable-Cue 0x971a…0126 | No | SELL | 2 | 50¢ | $1 | 0x3ca867… |
| 06-08 21:39:07 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 2 | 50¢ | $1 | 0x3ca867… |
| 06-08 21:38:48 | Juvenile-Hypothesis 0x3bef…f04e | No | SELL | 5 | 56¢ | $3 | 0xec9d7e… |
| 06-08 21:38:48 | Favorable-Cue 0x971a…0126 | Yes | SELL | 6 | 44¢ | $3 | 0xec9d7e… |
| 06-08 21:38:48 | Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | No | SELL | 1 | 56¢ | $1 | 0xec9d7e… |
| 06-05 14:03:51 | Watchful-Softening 0x38f2…8690 | No | SELL | 15 | 53¢ | $8 | 0x1e7545… |
| 06-05 14:03:51 | Favorable-Cue 0x971a…0126 | Yes | SELL | 15 | 47¢ | $7 | 0x1e7545… |
| 06-03 22:45:12 | Watchful-Full 0x9f23…7d19 | No | SELL | 20 | 53¢ | $11 | 0x39d673… |
| 06-03 22:45:12 | Favorable-Cue 0x971a…0126 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 47¢ | $9 | 0x39d673… |
| 06-03 22:06:19 | Favorable-Cue 0x971a…0126 | Yes | BUY | 41 | 46¢ | $19 | 0x4333c2… |
| 06-03 22:06:19 | Terrific-Subprime 0x06af…3741 | No | BUY | 41 | 54¢ | $22 | 0x4333c2… |
| 06-02 09:16:23 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 7 | 50¢ | $4 | 0x4cdd0c… |
| 06-02 09:16:23 | Excitable-Granny 0x3c57…1748 | Yes | SELL | 7 | 48¢ | $3 | 0x4cdd0c… |
| 06-02 09:16:23 | Favorable-Cue 0x971a…0126 | No | BUY | 2 | 50¢ | $1 | 0x4cdd0c… |
| 06-02 09:16:23 | Remote-Demur 0x9a67…af26 | No | SELL | 17 | 51¢ | $8 | 0x4cdd0c… |
| 06-02 04:39:25 | Useless-Smoking 0xf609…e68b | Yes | SELL | 7 | 47¢ | $3 | 0x11a251… |
| 06-02 04:39:25 | Excitable-Granny 0x3c57…1748 | Yes | BUY | 7 | 47¢ | $3 | 0x11a251… |