Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027?
open
Total volume
$125
Trades
20
Unique wallets
12
Liquidity
$2,176
Latest YES mid
40¢
Latest NO mid
60¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-06-02
last 06-11 10:54
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
No active YES holders.
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-38.5¢
(top1%: 0% YES on $11
vs crowd: 39% YES on $58)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 2 | — | $1 | $1 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 2 | — | $11 | $11 |
| 🐟 Fish | 3 | — | — | +— |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 5 | $22 | $23 | $1 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 1 | — | $11 | $11 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 1 | — | $1 | $1 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 2 | — | — | +— |
| Median | 1 | — | $22 | $22 |
| Below median | 2 | — | — | +— |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 1 | — | — | +— |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 1 | — | — | +— |
| unranked | 3 | $22 | $1 | +$21 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrific-Subprime 0x06af…3741 | No | +41 | $22 | $22 | 1 | 06-03 22:06 |
| Greedy-Neighbourhood 0x6ffd…a637 | No | +19 | $11 | $11 | 1 | 06-11 10:54 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +2 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-08 21:39 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-11 10:54:54 | Greedy-Neighbourhood 0x6ffd…a637 | No | BUY | 19 | 57¢ | $11 | 0xd0bfa4… |
| 06-11 10:54:54 | Juvenile-Hypothesis 0x3bef…f04e | No | SELL | 5 | 57¢ | $3 | 0xd0bfa4… |
| 06-11 10:54:54 | Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | No | SELL | 7 | 57¢ | $4 | 0xd0bfa4… |
| 06-08 21:39:07 | Favorable-Cue 0x971a…0126 | No | SELL | 2 | 50¢ | $1 | 0x3ca867… |
| 06-08 21:39:07 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 2 | 50¢ | $1 | 0x3ca867… |
| 06-08 21:38:48 | Favorable-Cue 0x971a…0126 | Yes | SELL | 6 | 44¢ | $3 | 0xec9d7e… |
| 06-08 21:38:48 | Juvenile-Hypothesis 0x3bef…f04e | No | SELL | 5 | 56¢ | $3 | 0xec9d7e… |
| 06-08 21:38:48 | Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | No | SELL | 1 | 56¢ | $1 | 0xec9d7e… |
| 06-05 14:03:51 | Watchful-Softening 0x38f2…8690 | No | SELL | 15 | 53¢ | $8 | 0x1e7545… |
| 06-05 14:03:51 | Favorable-Cue 0x971a…0126 | Yes | SELL | 15 | 47¢ | $7 | 0x1e7545… |
| 06-03 22:45:12 | Watchful-Full 0x9f23…7d19 | No | SELL | 20 | 53¢ | $11 | 0x39d673… |
| 06-03 22:45:12 | Favorable-Cue 0x971a…0126 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 47¢ | $9 | 0x39d673… |
| 06-03 22:06:19 | Favorable-Cue 0x971a…0126 | Yes | BUY | 41 | 46¢ | $19 | 0x4333c2… |
| 06-03 22:06:19 | Terrific-Subprime 0x06af…3741 | No | BUY | 41 | 54¢ | $22 | 0x4333c2… |
| 06-02 09:16:23 | Favorable-Cue 0x971a…0126 | No | BUY | 2 | 50¢ | $1 | 0x4cdd0c… |
| 06-02 09:16:23 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 7 | 50¢ | $4 | 0x4cdd0c… |
| 06-02 09:16:23 | Remote-Demur 0x9a67…af26 | No | SELL | 17 | 51¢ | $8 | 0x4cdd0c… |
| 06-02 09:16:23 | Excitable-Granny 0x3c57…1748 | Yes | SELL | 7 | 48¢ | $3 | 0x4cdd0c… |
| 06-02 04:39:25 | Useless-Smoking 0xf609…e68b | Yes | SELL | 7 | 47¢ | $3 | 0x11a251… |
| 06-02 04:39:25 | Excitable-Granny 0x3c57…1748 | Yes | BUY | 7 | 47¢ | $3 | 0x11a251… |