Realized P&L
+$52.5K
Unrealized P&L
-$2.03K
Hit rate
67.8%
Resolved
724
Trades
7,595
lifetime
Volume
$1.55M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$205
Open exposure
$38.8K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-27 01:29
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 218 days
Categories
Politics
54% 59% +$39,868
Other
45% 54% +$13,971
Tech
0% 55% -$998
Crypto
0% 24% -$76
Sports
0% 25% -$195
Pop-Culture
0% 0% -$85
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
77 active days in 12wk • peak 54 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? Yes +7,298 $3,132 94¢ $6.9K +$3,727 10-24 06:01
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes +9,209 $3,984 54¢ $5.0K +$1,026 10-26 18:27
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes +36,890 $20,393 12¢ $4.2K -$16,151 09-25 06:37
US imports Russian diesel by November 30? Yes +4,375 $2,297 88¢ $3.8K +$1,531 10-21 08:52
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No +3,107 $1,801 94¢ $2.9K +$1,135 05-21 10:27
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? No -2,062 -$478 87¢ $-1794 -$1,316 06-25 14:18
ukraine election called by december 31 2026 No +1,699 $1,478 95¢ $1.6K +$143 07-28 06:10
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +3,262 $1,009 44¢ $1.4K +$412 09-28 15:44
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? No +1,819 -$12,135 72¢ $1.3K +$13,454 08-12 02:57
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? Yes +3,287 $1,386 36¢ $1.2K -$186 10-20 12:43
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes +1,415 $812 67¢ $948 +$136 10-25 22:46
will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt0t by december 31 922 No +3,057 $1,509 31¢ $948 -$562 10-14 17:58
us announces end of iranian blockade by november 30 2026 Yes +3,988 $1,390 24¢ $937 -$453 10-20 14:20
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? No +1,168 $642 68¢ $788 +$146 09-07 07:18
will iran reconstruction funding be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201638 No +814 $602 94¢ $761 +$158 08-13 03:27
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes +1,000 $590 60¢ $605 +$15 10-06 07:06
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? Yes +1,819 $947 28¢ $500 -$447 06-30 16:07
nigel farage out as reform uk leader in 2026 20260622233131512 No +516 -$1,059 92¢ $475 +$1,533 07-07 13:48
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes +3,552 $1,012 13¢ $474 -$538 09-28 18:33
us announces end of iranian blockade by october 31 2026 20260727171711632 Yes +8,238 $4,687 4¢ $288 -$4,399 10-21 23:39
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? No -300 -$258 91¢ $-273 -$15 06-10 19:31
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +300 $171 82¢ $244 +$73 05-25 16:53
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026? Yes +300 $147 71¢ $213 +$66 10-13 12:17
No one announced as next James Bond? No +250 $184 75¢ $188 +$4 10-09 09:34
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +2,198 $484 8¢ $187 -$297 05-08 21:51
ukraine election called by december 31 2026 Yes +3,978 $774 5¢ $183 -$591 07-16 07:04
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? Yes +1,210 $634 13¢ $157 -$477 06-22 04:00
Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +59,537 $238 0¢ $149 -$89 09-28 10:33
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond? Yes +400 $158 37¢ $147 -$11 09-08 10:03
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31? Yes +620 $196 23¢ $143 -$53 10-16 16:36