Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?
open
Total volume
$7,823
Trades
486
Unique wallets
120
Liquidity
$1,873
Latest YES mid
36¢
Latest NO mid
64¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-28
last 08-03 22:49
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
+39.0¢
(top1%: 78% YES on $131
vs crowd: 39% YES on $5.8K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 9 | $194 | $545 | $351 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 20 | $440 | $259 | +$181 |
| 🐟 Fish | 35 | $1.1K | $2.3K | $1.1K |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 56 | $541 | $477 | +$63 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 5 | $103 | $29 | +$74 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 9 | $398 | $259 | +$139 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 8 | $163 | $80 | +$83 |
| Median | 17 | $67 | $250 | $182 |
| Below median | 13 | $834 | $31 | +$803 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 5 | $44 | $61 | $17 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 4 | $35 | $183 | $149 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 2 | $1 | $24 | $23 |
| unranked | 57 | $644 | $2.6K | $2.0K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (anonymous) 0x27e5…fb20 | No | +1,581 | $1,256 | $1,756 | 32 | 07-26 22:05 |
| Optimistic-Disposal 0x77c9…e0ac | No | +858 | $580 | $580 | 52 | 08-01 13:34 |
| Afraid-Pentagon 0x70a9…6a74 | Yes | +796 | $557 | $557 | 1 | 08-02 17:41 |
| Optimistic-Disposal 0x77c9…e0ac | Yes | +600 | $139 | $139 | 39 | 07-29 15:39 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +307 | $147 | $191 | 18 | 08-03 22:49 |
| (anonymous) 0x210c…7625 | Yes | +289 | $74 | $74 | 3 | 07-29 10:03 |
| Experienced-Carpeting 0xbdcb…e811 | No | +268 | $157 | $157 | 3 | 08-03 18:03 |
| (anonymous) 0x82b8…1b3b | Yes | +248 | $62 | $62 | 4 | 07-17 05:46 |
| Tepid-Authorization 0x7847…4007 | Yes | +240 | $179 | $179 | 1 | 08-01 13:34 |
| Slushy-Corral 0x2aa0…ee01 | No | +207 | $166 | $166 | 4 | 07-01 07:21 |
| Greedy-Neighbourhood 0x6ffd…a637 | Yes | +206 | $77 | $77 | 4 | 06-15 00:24 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +203 | $64 | $64 | 11 | 08-02 14:07 |
| (anonymous) 0x7a61…19a4 | No | +187 | $150 | $150 | 4 | 07-28 14:00 |
| Smug-Snowman 0x0547…fb35 | Yes | +186 | $64 | $64 | 7 | 07-26 22:05 |
| Cumbersome-Contrast 0xef0b…10f5 | No | +180 | $183 | $369 | 12 | 07-30 02:06 |
| (anonymous) 0xcdd4…4cf8 | Yes | +177 | $43 | $120 | 6 | 07-20 14:04 |
| (anonymous) 0xee8a…f0b0 | Yes | +171 | $58 | $58 | 5 | 07-24 05:56 |
| Wide-Councilman-Republican 0xcc82…6f90 | Yes | +132 | $25 | $25 | 1 | 07-09 08:20 |
| Flaky-Shadow 0xd1ee…a8ae | Yes | +131 | $94 | $94 | 2 | 07-31 21:31 |
| Athletic-North 0x6cef…af02 | Yes | +100 | $60 | $60 | 1 | 08-03 18:03 |
| (anonymous) 0x1790…6fd2 | Yes | +84 | $12 | $12 | 2 | 07-14 04:45 |
| (anonymous) 0x6706…2341 | Yes | +82 | $15 | $15 | 2 | 07-09 00:29 |
| Yearly-Takeover 0xe904…2d9f | Yes | +77 | $40 | $40 | 1 | 07-31 11:22 |
| Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | +77 | $19 | $97 | 14 | 08-02 17:41 |
| Kaleidoscopic-Walkway 0x1f2a…1e03 | Yes | +63 | $17 | $17 | 1 | 05-28 06:42 |
| (anonymous) 0x26bb…03cf | Yes | +61 | $11 | $11 | 1 | 07-09 00:28 |
| Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | +61 | $44 | $83 | 5 | 07-29 10:03 |
| (anonymous) 0xdc46…4fb8 | No | +60 | $19 | $19 | 5 | 07-31 21:31 |
| NoSteinNoGate 0xff7c…b233 | Yes | +53 | $13 | $13 | 1 | 07-21 17:02 |
| Sardonic-Cue 0x8a7b…782f | Yes | +52 | $7 | $63 | 3 | 07-13 21:52 |
| (anonymous) 0x8a13…e20f | Yes | +50 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 07-13 08:27 |
| (anonymous) 0xd787…7c12 | Yes | +46 | $13 | $13 | 3 | 07-23 08:59 |
| Thunderous-Acid 0xa0dd…1b9b | Yes | +42 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 07-12 10:46 |
| Great-Barbeque 0x07e0…1db9 | Yes | +40 | $8 | $8 | 2 | 07-01 07:21 |
| Hateful-Mastoid 0x62ba…31db | Yes | +37 | $25 | $25 | 1 | 07-31 17:32 |
| (anonymous) 0x1790…6fd2 | No | +33 | $25 | $34 | 4 | 07-13 17:42 |
| Flustered-Dictaphone 0xf0cf…5acc | Yes | +31 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 06-17 19:09 |
| Terrible-Ordinary 0x0a6d…1d0a | No | +30 | $21 | $21 | 1 | 07-20 14:04 |
| Fearful-Massage 0xafe2…b686 | No | +24 | $19 | $19 | 1 | 07-14 04:45 |
| MrMikhas 0x5fa5…b2f6 | Yes | +20 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 07-16 02:26 |
| (anonymous) 0xe8c4…ea5c | No | +20 | $16 | $16 | 2 | 07-22 07:33 |
| Terrible-Ordinary 0x0a6d…1d0a | Yes | +16 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 07-02 12:31 |
| (anonymous) 0xe2dd…be11 | No | +16 | $12 | $12 | 1 | 06-29 16:27 |
| (anonymous) 0xbc0d…d3a5 | No | +16 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 07-24 02:48 |
| (anonymous) 0xb119…680b | No | +15 | $8 | $17 | 4 | 07-30 02:06 |
| (anonymous) 0x6c46…87a0 | Yes | +14 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-07 00:44 |
| Pertinent-Vengeance 0x0275…b936 | No | +14 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 08-01 13:34 |
| Inexperienced-Combat 0x0981…5b7f | No | +10 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 05-29 12:45 |
| (anonymous) 0xaf05…33e2 | No | +10 | $8 | $8 | 2 | 07-09 08:20 |
| Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | +10 | $8 | $40 | 3 | 07-17 07:25 |
| United-Welcome 0x2afd…deb4 | No | +9 | $5 | $5 | 2 | 07-30 02:06 |
| (anonymous) 0x8f0c…a98f | No | +6 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 07-09 00:43 |
| (anonymous) 0xd823…12fe | No | +5 | $4 | $6 | 4 | 07-25 06:37 |
| (anonymous) 0x4bac…5e79 | No | +5 | $5 | $38 | 5 | 07-07 15:58 |
| (anonymous) 0xd10a…b9cd | No | +5 | $4 | $20 | 5 | 07-13 17:42 |
| (anonymous) 0x1ebd…1c5d | No | +4 | $4 | $31 | 3 | 06-25 10:18 |
| Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | No | +2 | $1 | $22 | 3 | 05-30 01:53 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 22:49:27 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 4 | 28¢ | $1 | 0xd4076b… |
| 08-03 22:49:27 | Indolent-Ceiling 0x4e48…a96d | Yes | BUY | 4 | 72¢ | $3 | 0xd4076b… |
| 08-03 19:34:00 | Fuzzy-Draft 0xfe93…8d0e | Yes | BUY | 4 | 60¢ | $2 | 0xded515… |
| 08-03 19:34:00 | (anonymous) 0xcc6e…c50a | Yes | SELL | 4 | 60¢ | $2 | 0xded515… |
| 08-03 18:03:20 | (anonymous) 0x00cd…c0ae | No | SELL | 5 | 39¢ | $2 | 0x965082… |
| 08-03 18:03:20 | Athletic-North 0x6cef…af02 | Yes | BUY | 100 | 60¢ | $60 | 0x965082… |
| 08-03 18:03:20 | Experienced-Carpeting 0xbdcb…e811 | No | BUY | 105 | 40¢ | $42 | 0x965082… |
| 08-03 16:08:50 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | No | SELL | 45 | 29¢ | $13 | 0x3929ff… |
| 08-03 16:08:50 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 45 | 29¢ | $13 | 0x3929ff… |
| 08-03 02:44:20 | (anonymous) 0x0cad…87f1 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 79¢ | $1 | 0x57f600… |
| 08-03 02:44:20 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 1 | 21¢ | $0 | 0x57f600… |
| 08-02 17:56:26 | (anonymous) 0xadb5…4d50 | Yes | SELL | 6 | 51¢ | $3 | 0xcdd048… |
| 08-02 17:56:26 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | No | SELL | 6 | 49¢ | $3 | 0xcdd048… |
| 08-02 17:41:24 | Third-Odyssey 0xa53b…4021 | Yes | SELL | 780 | 70¢ | $546 | 0x99d3aa… |
| 08-02 17:41:24 | Afraid-Pentagon 0x70a9…6a74 | Yes | BUY | 796 | 70¢ | $557 | 0x99d3aa… |
| 08-02 17:41:24 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 16 | 69¢ | $11 | 0x99d3aa… |
| 08-02 14:07:24 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 2 | 55¢ | $1 | 0xe55153… |
| 08-02 14:07:24 | (anonymous) 0x9db0…93f9 | Yes | SELL | 2 | 55¢ | $1 | 0xe55153… |
| 08-01 21:40:47 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 14 | 72¢ | $10 | 0xb23bc1… |
| 08-01 21:40:47 | Live-Aunt 0xf829…91ec | Yes | BUY | 14 | 72¢ | $10 | 0xb23bc1… |
| 08-01 20:03:29 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | No | SELL | 24 | 34¢ | $8 | 0x4fe9c8… |
| 08-01 20:03:29 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 30 | 67¢ | $20 | 0x4fe9c8… |
| 08-01 20:03:29 | (anonymous) 0xd5a3…5b70 | Yes | SELL | 54 | 67¢ | $36 | 0x4fe9c8… |
| 08-01 13:34:41 | Third-Odyssey 0xa53b…4021 | Yes | SELL | 87 | 75¢ | $65 | 0x2ca59c… |
| 08-01 13:34:41 | Blind-Minority 0xe298…9ef4 | Yes | SELL | 40 | 75¢ | $30 | 0x2ca59c… |
| 08-01 13:34:41 | Tepid-Authorization 0x7847…4007 | Yes | BUY | 240 | 75¢ | $179 | 0x2ca59c… |
| 08-01 13:34:41 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | No | BUY | 46 | 26¢ | $12 | 0x2ca59c… |
| 08-01 13:34:41 | (anonymous) 0x2d3a…3658 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 75¢ | $4 | 0x2ca59c… |
| 08-01 13:34:41 | (anonymous) 0xb119…680b | Yes | SELL | 7 | 72¢ | $5 | 0x2ca59c… |
| 08-01 13:34:41 | Pertinent-Vengeance 0x0275…b936 | No | BUY | 14 | 25¢ | $3 | 0x2ca59c… |
| 08-01 13:34:41 | Optimistic-Disposal 0x77c9…e0ac | No | BUY | 20 | 25¢ | $5 | 0x2ca59c… |
| 08-01 05:30:59 | (anonymous) 0xb119…680b | Yes | BUY | 7 | 58¢ | $4 | 0x86ce97… |
| 08-01 05:30:59 | Light-Consumer 0xe337…0dc2 | Yes | SELL | 7 | 58¢ | $4 | 0x86ce97… |
| 08-01 01:07:59 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | No | SELL | 3 | 43¢ | $1 | 0x7c309a… |
| 08-01 01:07:59 | Lost-Ovary 0xca09…0a03 | Yes | SELL | 3 | 57¢ | $2 | 0x7c309a… |
| 07-31 21:31:44 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 7 | 32¢ | $2 | 0x68fcd5… |
| 07-31 21:31:44 | (anonymous) 0x3d05…acde | No | SELL | 7 | 32¢ | $2 | 0x68fcd5… |
| 07-31 21:31:38 | (anonymous) 0xdc46…4fb8 | No | BUY | 1 | 32¢ | $0 | 0x775fe5… |
| 07-31 21:31:38 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | No | BUY | 33 | 26¢ | $8 | 0x775fe5… |
| 07-31 21:31:38 | (anonymous) 0x3d05…acde | No | BUY | 7 | 26¢ | $2 | 0x775fe5… |
| 07-31 21:31:38 | Flaky-Shadow 0xd1ee…a8ae | Yes | BUY | 110 | 73¢ | $80 | 0x775fe5… |
| 07-31 21:31:38 | Optimistic-Disposal 0x77c9…e0ac | No | BUY | 20 | 28¢ | $6 | 0x775fe5… |
| 07-31 21:31:38 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 50 | 28¢ | $14 | 0x775fe5… |
| 07-31 21:22:57 | (anonymous) 0xdc46…4fb8 | No | BUY | 21 | 32¢ | $7 | 0x82bb72… |
| 07-31 21:22:57 | Flaky-Shadow 0xd1ee…a8ae | Yes | BUY | 21 | 68¢ | $14 | 0x82bb72… |
| 07-31 18:52:59 | (anonymous) 0x10ff…de16 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 68¢ | $1 | 0x14f126… |
| 07-31 18:52:59 | (anonymous) 0xdc46…4fb8 | No | BUY | 1 | 32¢ | $0 | 0x14f126… |
| 07-31 17:32:14 | (anonymous) 0xdc46…4fb8 | No | BUY | 27 | 32¢ | $9 | 0x0858f5… |
| 07-31 17:32:14 | Hateful-Mastoid 0x62ba…31db | Yes | BUY | 37 | 67¢ | $25 | 0x0858f5… |
| 07-31 11:22:30 | Unfortunate-Tangerine 0x300d…ab3d | Yes | SELL | 33 | 53¢ | $17 | 0x78ff6c… |
| 07-31 11:22:30 | Optimistic-Disposal 0x77c9…e0ac | No | BUY | 20 | 48¢ | $10 | 0x78ff6c… |
| 07-31 11:22:30 | Yearly-Takeover 0xe904…2d9f | Yes | BUY | 77 | 52¢ | $40 | 0x78ff6c… |
| 07-31 04:58:35 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 21 | 44¢ | $9 | 0x624f73… |
| 07-31 04:58:35 | Experienced-Carpeting 0xbdcb…e811 | No | BUY | 21 | 56¢ | $12 | 0x624f73… |
| 07-30 15:24:53 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 2 | 44¢ | $1 | 0x5fa7b9… |
| 07-30 15:24:53 | Lost-Ovary 0xca09…0a03 | Yes | SELL | 2 | 44¢ | $1 | 0x5fa7b9… |
| 07-30 02:06:45 | (anonymous) 0xb119…680b | No | BUY | 8 | 54¢ | $4 | 0x483fcf… |
| 07-30 02:06:45 | Optimistic-Disposal 0x77c9…e0ac | No | BUY | 20 | 51¢ | $10 | 0x483fcf… |
| 07-30 02:06:45 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 50 | 57¢ | $28 | 0x483fcf… |
| 07-30 02:06:45 | Unfortunate-Tangerine 0x300d…ab3d | Yes | SELL | 29 | 50¢ | $14 | 0x483fcf… |
| 07-30 02:06:45 | Cumbersome-Contrast 0xef0b…10f5 | No | SELL | 173 | 54¢ | $93 | 0x483fcf… |
| 07-30 02:06:45 | United-Welcome 0x2afd…deb4 | No | BUY | 6 | 53¢ | $3 | 0x483fcf… |
| 07-29 18:42:39 | 0xfbfd14dd4bb607373119de95f1d4b21c3b6c0029 0xfbfd…0029 | No | SELL | 1 | 63¢ | $1 | 0xf5340f… |
| 07-29 18:42:39 | (anonymous) 0x9db0…93f9 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 37¢ | $0 | 0xf5340f… |
| 07-29 15:53:12 | (anonymous) 0xb119…680b | Yes | SELL | 8 | 35¢ | $3 | 0x10155c… |
| 07-29 15:53:12 | Flawed-Meander 0x42b7…abff | Yes | SELL | 140 | 36¢ | $50 | 0x10155c… |
| 07-29 15:53:12 | Optimistic-Disposal 0x77c9…e0ac | No | BUY | 20 | 63¢ | $13 | 0x10155c… |
| 07-29 15:53:12 | 0xfbfd14dd4bb607373119de95f1d4b21c3b6c0029 0xfbfd…0029 | No | SELL | 187 | 64¢ | $120 | 0x10155c… |
| 07-29 15:39:09 | (anonymous) 0xccb3…c2e4 | Yes | SELL | 3 | 30¢ | $1 | 0xef3aab… |
| 07-29 15:39:09 | Optimistic-Disposal 0x77c9…e0ac | Yes | BUY | 3 | 30¢ | $1 | 0xef3aab… |
| 07-29 10:03:11 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 31 | 65¢ | $20 | 0xcc1ec9… |
| 07-29 10:03:11 | Optimistic-Disposal 0x77c9…e0ac | No | BUY | 9 | 63¢ | $6 | 0xcc1ec9… |
| 07-29 10:03:11 | (anonymous) 0xb119…680b | Yes | SELL | 8 | 35¢ | $3 | 0xcc1ec9… |
| 07-29 10:03:11 | (anonymous) 0x210c…7625 | Yes | BUY | 68 | 36¢ | $24 | 0xcc1ec9… |
| 07-28 14:00:05 | Tired-Acoustics 0x61f2…e77a | No | SELL | 5 | 76¢ | $4 | 0xfe8787… |
| 07-28 14:00:05 | (anonymous) 0x7a61…19a4 | No | BUY | 53 | 75¢ | $40 | 0xfe8787… |
| 07-28 14:00:05 | (anonymous) 0xb119…680b | Yes | BUY | 8 | 25¢ | $2 | 0xfe8787… |
| 07-28 14:00:05 | Optimistic-Disposal 0x77c9…e0ac | Yes | BUY | 6 | 24¢ | $1 | 0xfe8787… |
| 07-28 14:00:05 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 15 | 26¢ | $4 | 0xfe8787… |
| 07-27 17:02:09 | (anonymous) 0xccb3…c2e4 | Yes | BUY | 3 | 36¢ | $1 | 0x345d0a… |
| 07-27 17:02:09 | United-Welcome 0x2afd…deb4 | No | BUY | 3 | 64¢ | $2 | 0x345d0a… |
| 07-26 22:05:36 | Smug-Snowman 0x0547…fb35 | Yes | BUY | 12 | 34¢ | $4 | 0x9c9cf2… |
| 07-26 22:05:36 | (anonymous) 0x27e5…fb20 | No | BUY | 12 | 66¢ | $8 | 0x9c9cf2… |
| 07-26 12:53:43 | (anonymous) 0x7a61…19a4 | No | BUY | 15 | 66¢ | $10 | 0x178032… |
| 07-26 12:53:43 | Smug-Snowman 0x0547…fb35 | Yes | BUY | 15 | 34¢ | $5 | 0x178032… |
| 07-25 09:59:48 | Capital-Endoderm 0xf27d…e6d3 | Yes | SELL | 28 | 34¢ | $10 | 0x6c2702… |
| 07-25 09:59:48 | Smug-Snowman 0x0547…fb35 | Yes | BUY | 28 | 34¢ | $10 | 0x6c2702… |
| 07-25 09:59:40 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 56 | 35¢ | $19 | 0xc07f8e… |
| 07-25 09:59:40 | Smug-Snowman 0x0547…fb35 | Yes | BUY | 94 | 34¢ | $32 | 0xc07f8e… |
| 07-25 09:59:40 | Capital-Endoderm 0xf27d…e6d3 | Yes | SELL | 150 | 34¢ | $52 | 0xc07f8e… |
| 07-25 09:59:13 | Smug-Snowman 0x0547…fb35 | Yes | BUY | 17 | 35¢ | $6 | 0xd82f8a… |
| 07-25 09:59:13 | (anonymous) 0xb119…680b | Yes | BUY | 8 | 35¢ | $3 | 0xd82f8a… |
| 07-25 09:59:13 | Capital-Endoderm 0xf27d…e6d3 | Yes | SELL | 54 | 35¢ | $19 | 0xd82f8a… |
| 07-25 09:59:13 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 30 | 35¢ | $10 | 0xd82f8a… |
| 07-25 06:37:21 | Fatal-Headquarters 0xa976…c2e7 | No | SELL | 2 | 62¢ | $1 | 0xc352b8… |
| 07-25 06:37:21 | (anonymous) 0xd823…12fe | No | BUY | 2 | 62¢ | $1 | 0xc352b8… |
| 07-24 17:49:42 | (anonymous) 0xb411…8a7c | Yes | SELL | 3 | 35¢ | $1 | 0x4b2fe3… |
| 07-24 17:49:42 | Smug-Snowman 0x0547…fb35 | Yes | BUY | 3 | 35¢ | $1 | 0x4b2fe3… |
| 07-24 11:39:06 | (anonymous) 0x9db0…93f9 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 36¢ | $0 | 0x581714… |
| 07-24 11:39:06 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 36¢ | $0 | 0x581714… |