Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?
open
Total volume
$873
Trades
104
Unique wallets
38
Liquidity
$1,873
Latest YES mid
24¢
Latest NO mid
76¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-28
last 06-19 12:09
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
+45.4¢
(top1%: 91% YES on $84
vs crowd: 46% YES on $698)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 4 | $62 | $178 | $117 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 7 | $164 | $24 | +$140 |
| 🐟 Fish | 8 | $27 | $154 | $127 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 19 | $68 | $21 | +$47 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 2 | $77 | $7 | +$69 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 2 | $83 | $75 | +$7 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 3 | $6 | $17 | $11 |
| Median | 6 | $26 | $8 | +$19 |
| Below median | 6 | $66 | — | +$66 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 3 | $32 | $109 | $77 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 1 | $1 | — | +$1 |
| unranked | 15 | $30 | $161 | $132 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greedy-Neighbourhood 0x6ffd…a637 | Yes | +206 | $77 | $77 | 4 | 06-15 00:24 |
| (anonymous) 0x27e5…fb20 | No | +177 | $127 | $127 | 4 | 06-19 12:09 |
| Experienced-Carpeting 0xbdcb…e811 | No | +142 | $103 | $103 | 1 | 06-11 08:29 |
| Capital-Endoderm 0xf27d…e6d3 | Yes | +141 | $40 | $68 | 7 | 06-03 12:59 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +128 | $75 | $75 | 9 | 06-11 10:54 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +106 | $29 | $29 | 5 | 06-11 19:15 |
| Kaleidoscopic-Walkway 0x1f2a…1e03 | Yes | +63 | $17 | $17 | 1 | 05-28 06:42 |
| Optimistic-Disposal 0x77c9…e0ac | Yes | +60 | $16 | $16 | 3 | 06-18 09:46 |
| Optimistic-Disposal 0x77c9…e0ac | No | +31 | $21 | $21 | 2 | 06-17 19:09 |
| Flustered-Dictaphone 0xf0cf…5acc | Yes | +31 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 06-17 19:09 |
| Grounded-Flick 0x4e94…d649 | Yes | +15 | $4 | $6 | 4 | 06-02 17:00 |
| (anonymous) 0x6c46…87a0 | Yes | +14 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-07 00:44 |
| Sardonic-Cue 0x8a7b…782f | Yes | +12 | $-1 | $55 | 2 | 06-11 19:15 |
| Crisp-Scarf 0x2ed8…93d4 | No | +10 | $7 | $7 | 2 | 06-16 19:51 |
| Defenseless-Eyebrow 0xe50c…d88c | Yes | +10 | $2 | $2 | 2 | 06-18 09:46 |
| Inexperienced-Combat 0x0981…5b7f | No | +10 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 05-29 12:45 |
| (anonymous) 0x3b5a…5651 | Yes | +5 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-29 15:59 |
| Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | +4 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-05 20:01 |
| Lost-Ovary 0xca09…0a03 | Yes | +4 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-30 15:39 |
| (anonymous) 0xb411…8a7c | Yes | +3 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-16 19:51 |
| (anonymous) 0x1790…6fd2 | No | +3 | $1 | $10 | 3 | 06-15 00:07 |
| Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | No | +2 | $1 | $22 | 3 | 05-30 01:53 |
| Minor-Oregano 0x70fc…88c1 | Yes | +2 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-10 04:56 |
| Frizzy-Sinuosity 0x9db3…1d38 | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-01 21:08 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-19 12:09:34 | (anonymous) 0x27e5…fb20 | No | BUY | 7 | 73¢ | $5 | 0x2755dc… |
| 06-19 12:09:34 | Light-Consumer 0xe337…0dc2 | Yes | BUY | 7 | 27¢ | $2 | 0x2755dc… |
| 06-18 09:46:31 | (anonymous) 0x27e5…fb20 | No | BUY | 30 | 75¢ | $22 | 0x84bcba… |
| 06-18 09:46:31 | Optimistic-Disposal 0x77c9…e0ac | Yes | BUY | 20 | 25¢ | $5 | 0x84bcba… |
| 06-18 09:46:31 | Defenseless-Eyebrow 0xe50c…d88c | Yes | BUY | 5 | 25¢ | $1 | 0x84bcba… |
| 06-18 09:46:23 | (anonymous) 0x27e5…fb20 | No | BUY | 40 | 73¢ | $29 | 0xc6895a… |
| 06-18 09:46:23 | Optimistic-Disposal 0x77c9…e0ac | Yes | BUY | 20 | 27¢ | $5 | 0xc6895a… |
| 06-17 19:09:50 | Optimistic-Disposal 0x77c9…e0ac | No | BUY | 11 | 67¢ | $7 | 0x376f97… |
| 06-17 19:09:50 | Flustered-Dictaphone 0xf0cf…5acc | Yes | BUY | 31 | 32¢ | $10 | 0x376f97… |
| 06-16 19:51:07 | (anonymous) 0xb411…8a7c | Yes | BUY | 3 | 32¢ | $1 | 0xd7af0a… |
| 06-16 19:51:07 | Crisp-Scarf 0x2ed8…93d4 | No | BUY | 3 | 68¢ | $2 | 0xd7af0a… |
| 06-15 00:24:13 | Greedy-Neighbourhood 0x6ffd…a637 | Yes | BUY | 100 | 30¢ | $30 | 0x919a90… |
| 06-15 00:24:13 | (anonymous) 0x27e5…fb20 | No | BUY | 100 | 70¢ | $70 | 0x919a90… |
| 06-15 00:07:12 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | BUY | 28 | 31¢ | $9 | 0x55c9e1… |
| 06-15 00:07:12 | (anonymous) 0x1790…6fd2 | No | SELL | 5 | 69¢ | $3 | 0x55c9e1… |
| 06-15 00:07:12 | Light-Consumer 0xe337…0dc2 | Yes | SELL | 32 | 31¢ | $10 | 0x55c9e1… |
| 06-14 18:06:30 | (anonymous) 0x1790…6fd2 | No | SELL | 2 | 68¢ | $1 | 0x545930… |
| 06-14 18:06:30 | Muffled-Mesenchyme 0xd3a7…c2dc | Yes | SELL | 2 | 32¢ | $1 | 0x545930… |
| 06-11 19:15:24 | Sardonic-Cue 0x8a7b…782f | Yes | SELL | 88 | 32¢ | $28 | 0xa1f1e9… |
| 06-11 19:15:24 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | BUY | 38 | 31¢ | $12 | 0xa1f1e9… |
| 06-11 19:15:24 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 32¢ | $16 | 0xa1f1e9… |
| 06-11 10:54:36 | Greedy-Neighbourhood 0x6ffd…a637 | Yes | BUY | 16 | 44¢ | $7 | 0xb70abb… |
| 06-11 10:54:36 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 16 | 56¢ | $9 | 0xb70abb… |
| 06-11 10:54:31 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 38 | 56¢ | $21 | 0xa7efdd… |
| 06-11 10:54:31 | Greedy-Neighbourhood 0x6ffd…a637 | Yes | BUY | 38 | 44¢ | $17 | 0xa7efdd… |
| 06-11 10:54:01 | Greedy-Neighbourhood 0x6ffd…a637 | Yes | BUY | 52 | 44¢ | $23 | 0x6b40a0… |
| 06-11 10:54:01 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 42 | 44¢ | $18 | 0x6b40a0… |
| 06-11 10:54:01 | (anonymous) 0x1790…6fd2 | No | BUY | 10 | 57¢ | $6 | 0x6b40a0… |
| 06-11 08:29:37 | Experienced-Carpeting 0xbdcb…e811 | No | BUY | 142 | 73¢ | $103 | 0xef2835… |
| 06-11 08:29:37 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | BUY | 42 | 28¢ | $12 | 0xef2835… |
| 06-11 08:29:37 | Sardonic-Cue 0x8a7b…782f | Yes | BUY | 100 | 27¢ | $27 | 0xef2835… |
| 06-11 02:57:18 | Bare-Patch-Airbag 0xc9af…91e5 | No | SELL | 3 | 53¢ | $2 | 0x6ff587… |
| 06-11 02:57:18 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 3 | 53¢ | $2 | 0x6ff587… |
| 06-10 04:56:42 | Minor-Oregano 0x70fc…88c1 | Yes | BUY | 2 | 48¢ | $1 | 0x09ab8e… |
| 06-10 04:56:42 | Unfortunate-Tangerine 0x300d…ab3d | Yes | SELL | 2 | 48¢ | $1 | 0x09ab8e… |
| 06-08 01:32:40 | Superb-Fellow 0x7cb6…a366 | Yes | SELL | 22 | 28¢ | $6 | 0x16c274… |
| 06-08 01:32:40 | Agreeable-Affair 0xe2d7…49d8 | No | SELL | 7 | 72¢ | $5 | 0x16c274… |
| 06-08 01:32:40 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 15 | 28¢ | $4 | 0x16c274… |
| 06-08 01:32:36 | Superb-Fellow 0x7cb6…a366 | Yes | BUY | 22 | 45¢ | $10 | 0x4414f9… |
| 06-08 01:32:36 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 22 | 55¢ | $12 | 0x4414f9… |
| 06-07 02:38:19 | Necessary-Battle-Pork 0x56d2…70a3 | No | SELL | 1 | 53¢ | $0 | 0x887d6d… |
| 06-07 02:38:19 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 1 | 53¢ | $0 | 0x887d6d… |
| 06-07 02:37:58 | Necessary-Battle-Pork 0x56d2…70a3 | No | SELL | 7 | 65¢ | $4 | 0x7ddad7… |
| 06-07 02:37:58 | Putrid-Reunion 0xa6f7…1f33 | Yes | SELL | 7 | 35¢ | $2 | 0x7ddad7… |
| 06-07 02:37:45 | Necessary-Battle-Pork 0x56d2…70a3 | No | BUY | 7 | 78¢ | $6 | 0x9785ca… |
| 06-07 02:37:45 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 7 | 22¢ | $2 | 0x9785ca… |
| 06-07 00:44:12 | (anonymous) 0x6c46…87a0 | Yes | BUY | 14 | 35¢ | $5 | 0x7ba7b1… |
| 06-07 00:44:12 | Putrid-Reunion 0xa6f7…1f33 | Yes | SELL | 14 | 35¢ | $5 | 0x7ba7b1… |
| 06-05 20:01:37 | Humongous-Sphynx 0x2c3c…4732 | Yes | SELL | 4 | 22¢ | $1 | 0x972201… |
| 06-05 20:01:37 | Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | BUY | 4 | 22¢ | $1 | 0x972201… |
| 06-05 19:20:49 | Putrid-Reunion 0xa6f7…1f33 | Yes | BUY | 21 | 28¢ | $6 | 0x0c7193… |
| 06-05 19:20:49 | Superb-Fellow 0x7cb6…a366 | Yes | SELL | 21 | 28¢ | $6 | 0x0c7193… |
| 06-05 19:20:46 | Superb-Fellow 0x7cb6…a366 | Yes | BUY | 21 | 47¢ | $10 | 0x907b88… |
| 06-05 19:20:46 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 21 | 53¢ | $11 | 0x907b88… |
| 06-03 12:59:47 | Incomplete-Vitamin 0xa7db…6688 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 26¢ | $1 | 0xb1ec8e… |
| 06-03 12:59:47 | Capital-Endoderm 0xf27d…e6d3 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 26¢ | $1 | 0xb1ec8e… |
| 06-02 17:00:18 | Muffled-Mesenchyme 0xd3a7…c2dc | Yes | SELL | 5 | 23¢ | $1 | 0x13da6d… |
| 06-02 17:00:18 | Bare-Patch-Airbag 0xc9af…91e5 | No | SELL | 7 | 82¢ | $6 | 0x89e198… |
| 06-02 17:00:18 | Grounded-Flick 0x4e94…d649 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 23¢ | $1 | 0x13da6d… |
| 06-02 17:00:18 | Muffled-Mesenchyme 0xd3a7…c2dc | Yes | SELL | 7 | 18¢ | $1 | 0x89e198… |
| 06-01 21:53:35 | Capital-Endoderm 0xf27d…e6d3 | Yes | BUY | 22 | 23¢ | $5 | 0x58d319… |
| 06-01 21:53:35 | Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | Yes | SELL | 22 | 23¢ | $5 | 0x58d319… |
| 06-01 21:08:56 | Frizzy-Sinuosity 0x9db3…1d38 | No | BUY | 1 | 77¢ | $1 | 0xee1618… |
| 06-01 21:08:56 | Humongous-Sphynx 0x2c3c…4732 | Yes | BUY | 4 | 23¢ | $1 | 0xee1618… |
| 06-01 21:08:56 | Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | Yes | SELL | 4 | 23¢ | $1 | 0xee1618… |
| 05-30 15:39:44 | Lost-Ovary 0xca09…0a03 | Yes | BUY | 4 | 24¢ | $1 | 0x680427… |
| 05-30 15:39:44 | Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | Yes | SELL | 4 | 24¢ | $1 | 0x680427… |
| 05-30 01:53:47 | (anonymous) 0xf528…7e5b | No | SELL | 7 | 81¢ | $6 | 0x4085e6… |
| 05-30 01:53:47 | Bare-Patch-Airbag 0xc9af…91e5 | No | SELL | 0 | 83¢ | $0 | 0x4085e6… |
| 05-30 01:53:47 | Impure-Contour 0x1d9f…c9c6 | Yes | SELL | 13 | 19¢ | $3 | 0x4085e6… |
| 05-30 01:53:47 | Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | No | SELL | 6 | 81¢ | $5 | 0x4085e6… |
| 05-29 15:59:34 | Grounded-Flick 0x4e94…d649 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 20¢ | $1 | 0xf17898… |
| 05-29 15:59:34 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 20¢ | $1 | 0xf17898… |
| 05-29 15:59:24 | Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | No | SELL | 6 | 81¢ | $5 | 0x620db4… |
| 05-29 15:59:24 | (anonymous) 0x3b5a…5651 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 19¢ | $1 | 0x620db4… |
| 05-29 15:59:24 | Capital-Endoderm 0xf27d…e6d3 | Yes | SELL | 11 | 19¢ | $2 | 0x620db4… |
| 05-29 15:59:19 | Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 20¢ | $6 | 0xa75a94… |
| 05-29 15:59:19 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 28 | 20¢ | $6 | 0xa75a94… |
| 05-29 15:59:19 | Capital-Endoderm 0xf27d…e6d3 | Yes | SELL | 58 | 20¢ | $12 | 0xa75a94… |
| 05-29 12:45:14 | Grounded-Flick 0x4e94…d649 | Yes | BUY | 8 | 24¢ | $2 | 0x44fff6… |
| 05-29 12:45:14 | Inexperienced-Combat 0x0981…5b7f | No | BUY | 10 | 76¢ | $8 | 0x44fff6… |
| 05-29 12:45:14 | Incomplete-Vitamin 0xa7db…6688 | Yes | BUY | 2 | 24¢ | $1 | 0x44fff6… |
| 05-28 20:17:43 | Muffled-Mesenchyme 0xd3a7…c2dc | Yes | BUY | 7 | 28¢ | $2 | 0x3fe4ba… |
| 05-28 20:17:43 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 7 | 72¢ | $5 | 0x3fe4ba… |
| 05-28 20:17:41 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 7 | 72¢ | $5 | 0x6674b5… |
| 05-28 20:17:41 | Muffled-Mesenchyme 0xd3a7…c2dc | Yes | BUY | 7 | 28¢ | $2 | 0x6674b5… |
| 05-28 14:30:01 | Grounded-Flick 0x4e94…d649 | Yes | BUY | 7 | 28¢ | $2 | 0x4ad24b… |
| 05-28 14:30:01 | Crisp-Scarf 0x2ed8…93d4 | No | BUY | 7 | 72¢ | $5 | 0x4ad24b… |
| 05-28 11:04:57 | Capital-Endoderm 0xf27d…e6d3 | Yes | BUY | 85 | 28¢ | $24 | 0x966404… |
| 05-28 11:04:57 | (anonymous) 0xb439…7418 | Yes | SELL | 85 | 28¢ | $24 | 0x966404… |
| 05-28 11:04:53 | Bare-Patch-Airbag 0xc9af…91e5 | No | BUY | 5 | 73¢ | $4 | 0x6d6385… |
| 05-28 11:04:53 | Capital-Endoderm 0xf27d…e6d3 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 27¢ | $1 | 0x6d6385… |
| 05-28 11:04:06 | Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | No | BUY | 15 | 76¢ | $11 | 0x651a28… |
| 05-28 11:04:06 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 79 | 24¢ | $19 | 0x651a28… |
| 05-28 11:04:06 | Capital-Endoderm 0xf27d…e6d3 | Yes | BUY | 94 | 24¢ | $23 | 0x651a28… |
| 05-28 07:48:36 | Impure-Contour 0x1d9f…c9c6 | Yes | BUY | 13 | 26¢ | $3 | 0xbb5a90… |
| 05-28 07:48:36 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 13 | 74¢ | $10 | 0xbb5a90… |
| 05-28 06:42:39 | Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | Yes | SELL | 24 | 29¢ | $7 | 0x6ff865… |
| 05-28 06:42:39 | Ashamed-Wok 0x4916…f56f | Yes | SELL | 5 | 26¢ | $1 | 0x6ff865… |
| 05-28 06:42:39 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | SELL | 0 | 32¢ | $0 | 0x6ff865… |