Thunderous-Acid — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2.28K

Unrealized P&L

-$66

Hit rate

74.1%

Resolved

541

Trades

2,610

lifetime

Volume

$164.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$63

Open exposure

$349

18 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-23 18:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 159 days

Categories

Other

75% 42% -$9,098

Crypto

9% 50% +$1,798

Politics

7% 49% -$222

Tech

7% 56% +$5,287

Sports

2% 33% -$43

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

50 active days in 12wk • peak 19 trades/day

Open positions (18) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US recession by end of 2026?	No	+256	$192	92¢	$237	+$45	05-04 07:36
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	+100	$77	57¢	$57	-$20	10-04 18:46
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be less than $1T?	No	+20	$16	70¢	$14	-$2	10-11 18:55
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	No	+50	$10	19¢	$10	$0	06-16 13:20
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	Yes	-291	-$9	2¢	$-7	+$2	09-20 07:27
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?	Yes	+130	$17	3¢	$4	-$13	05-05 08:10
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	+100	$30	4¢	$4	-$26	05-22 06:25
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Yes	+60	$10	6¢	$3	-$7	05-05 07:24
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?	Yes	+50	$6	6¢	$3	-$3	10-11 18:46
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+100	$9	2¢	$2	-$6	05-05 09:43
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	+100	$7	2¢	$2	-$5	05-21 07:04
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+30	$12	6¢	$2	-$10	06-13 11:35
Plague pandemic in 2026?	Yes	+80	$4	2¢	$2	-$2	10-07 13:56
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	+200	$1	0¢	$0	-$1	06-02 12:25
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	+120	$4	0¢	$0	-$4	05-20 02:23
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	+200	$12	0¢	$0	-$12	06-03 09:06
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	+100	$1	0¢	$0	-$1	05-19 23:26
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	+120	$1	0¢	$0	-$1	05-20 05:01

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	115	$13.0K	10,187	10,187	+0	No	+$2,352	05-25 17:35
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	48	$10.8K	11,558	0	+11,558	No	+$721	06-13 07:54
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	2	$8.4K	13,000	400	+12,600	No	+$4,908	06-12 16:04
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?	15	$6.4K	8,922	0	+8,922	No	+$2,503	04-21 12:29
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	11	$6.4K	7,109	0	+7,109	No	+$715	04-28 14:00
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?	6	$5.6K	3,117	2,910	+206	Yes	+$133	04-17 12:25
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	46	$5.0K	8,258	100	+8,158	No	+$3,220	05-26 11:33
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	44	$4.9K	5,833	1,548	+4,285	No	+$1,974	05-26 10:39
US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31?	12	$4.9K	2,424	2,685	-262	No	+$85	05-15 14:26
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	60	$4.9K	10,763	1,466	+9,297	Yes	-$2,727	05-25 16:50
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	1	$4.9K	5,800	0	+5,800	No	-$4,872	06-20 21:10
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	23	$4.8K	5,694	0	+5,694	Yes	+$864	05-18 12:44
will wti crude oil wti hit low 75 in june 987	68	$4.7K	9,580	0	+9,580	Yes	-$4,684	06-16 16:30
will wti dip to 70 in june 2026 532 385 742	44	$4.0K	5,278	0	+5,278	Yes	-$4,033	06-18 06:11
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	1	$4.0K	5,000	0	+5,000	No	+$1,000	06-20 14:45
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?	50	$4.0K	4,430	0	+4,430	No	+$443	06-17 22:17
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?	1	$3.3K	3,855	0	+3,855	No	+$578	06-19 21:57
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in April?	27	$2.5K	3,853	0	+3,853	Yes	+$1,350	04-22 07:17
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	10	$2.4K	2,570	0	+2,570	No	+$96	06-14 17:25
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	38	$2.4K	5,231	0	+5,231	Yes	+$2,835	04-18 08:30
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	27	$2.3K	4,998	0	+4,998	Yes	-$2,285	04-17 16:41
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	8	$2.0K	1,800	1,475	+325	No	+$359	06-12 16:04
will wti reach 100 in june 2026 823 791 134	64	$1.8K	3,568	200	+3,368	No	-$1,681	06-14 21:31
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03?	18	$1.4K	2,100	0	+2,100	Yes	+$714	06-03 05:37
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-07?	1	$1.4K	1,626	0	+1,626	Yes	+$260	06-07 18:36
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May?	31	$1.3K	2,957	400	+2,557	Yes	-$553	05-22 17:29
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-02?	1	$1.3K	1,400	0	+1,400	Yes	+$140	06-02 06:34
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	1	$1.2K	1,423	0	+1,423	No	+$185	04-25 15:47
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June?	35	$1.2K	4,547	0	+4,547	Yes	-$1,223	06-15 07:25
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?	18	$1.2K	1,635	810	+825	Yes	+$913	04-29 12:48

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-23 18:40:08	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,300 in October?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x010c92…
10-23 13:45:17	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,200 in October?	Yes	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0xd754b1…
10-23 13:11:24	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in October?	Yes	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0xf0b779…
10-22 16:47:36	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in October?	Yes	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0xeb6aaf…
10-21 17:22:03	Will Sporting CP win on 2026-10-21?	Yes	BUY	100	74¢	$74	0x0179b5…
10-21 08:19:08	Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-10-21?	Yes	BUY	100	79¢	$79	0x82738c…
10-20 15:34:09	Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-10-20?	No	BUY	100	44¢	$44	0x2f2e39…
10-17 14:59:38	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in October?	No	SELL	100	90¢	$90	0x1ce8f7…
10-16 21:26:32	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in October?	Yes	BUY	169	86¢	$145	0xc8d0fb…
10-16 16:17:09	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 in October?	Yes	BUY	100	9¢	$9	0xeb8afa…
10-16 13:35:12	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,200 in October?	Yes	BUY	48	90¢	$43	0x52b925…
10-16 13:32:49	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,300 in October?	Yes	BUY	100	46¢	$46	0x12658a…
10-16 13:27:49	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,200 in October?	Yes	BUY	12	90¢	$11	0xbb5f8a…
10-16 12:54:09	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,300 in October?	Yes	BUY	100	46¢	$46	0x1fe74a…
10-16 12:50:16	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 in October?	Yes	BUY	200	22¢	$44	0x63ab24…
10-15 19:28:23	Will SK Brann win on 2026-10-15?	Yes	BUY	20	57¢	$11	0xa32d1e…
10-14 06:50:28	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in October?	Yes	BUY	30	49¢	$15	0xfdbe53…
10-14 06:43:49	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in October?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x0177b3…
10-13 20:16:04	Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-13?	Yes	BUY	62	57¢	$35	0x898c4e…
10-13 19:04:18	Will Viking FK win on 2026-10-13?	No	BUY	17	88¢	$15	0x84d69d…
10-13 19:04:18	Will Viking FK win on 2026-10-13?	No	BUY	150	88¢	$132	0x18d2ac…
10-13 19:04:16	Will Viking FK win on 2026-10-13?	No	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0xa16873…
10-12 14:09:09	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $790 in October?	Yes	BUY	60	57¢	$34	0x6bb637…
10-11 18:55:33	Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be less than $1T?	No	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0x5ee77a…
10-11 18:55:01	Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be less than $1T?	No	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0x858884…
10-11 18:46:03	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	13¢	$6	0xb03e93…
10-11 16:54:39	Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-10-11?	Yes	BUY	47	2¢	$1	0x7eba0c…
10-11 16:54:37	Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-10-11?	Yes	BUY	53	2¢	$1	0x4af0c1…
10-11 16:49:55	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in October?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x7553d6…
10-11 16:18:55	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in October?	Yes	BUY	70	2¢	$1	0x92ac11…
10-07 13:56:40	Plague pandemic in 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	4¢	$2	0xc7b4ac…
10-07 13:56:40	Plague pandemic in 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	5¢	$2	0xb84d22…
10-06 16:00:56	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in October?	Yes	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0xc4ef23…
10-06 13:54:24	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $755 Week of October 5 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	5¢	$0	0xeedf77…
10-06 11:46:46	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $755 Week of October 5 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x34ded0…
10-06 11:45:42	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $755 Week of October 5 2026?	Yes	BUY	105	5¢	$5	0x8301f3…
10-05 02:53:40	will spy dip to 735 by october 5 2026	Yes	BUY	200	2¢	$4	0xcf7a07…
10-04 18:46:38	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	BUY	100	77¢	$77	0xa2adfc…
10-04 17:58:50	Will Portugal win on 2026-10-04?	Yes	BUY	100	57¢	$57	0x702a92…
10-04 17:19:50	will wti dip to 85 in october 2026	No	BUY	100	41¢	$41	0x69fc36…
10-04 14:26:38	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 5?	Down	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x491d56…
10-04 13:08:35	Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be between $1.00T and $1.25T at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xcd4386…
10-04 13:08:35	Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be less than $1.00T at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	2¢	$0	0xc14dfa…
10-04 13:08:35	Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be less than $1.00T at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0xbcab0c…
10-04 13:08:35	Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be between $1.00T and $1.25T at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	1¢	$0	0x29a38f…
10-04 11:52:41	Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be between $1.00T and $1.25T at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xb0deb0…
10-04 11:52:41	Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be less than $1.00T at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x9af6cb…
10-04 11:52:41	Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be less than $1.00T at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x920853…
10-04 11:52:41	Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be between $1.00T and $1.25T at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x0e7548…
10-04 11:52:40	Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be between $1.00T and $1.25T at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	1¢	$0	0xed5135…
10-04 11:52:40	Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be less than $1.00T at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	2¢	$0	0xcea56e…
10-04 11:08:01	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 5?	Down	BUY	8	40¢	$3	0x007522…
10-04 10:25:02	Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (LOW) $120 in October?	Yes	BUY	50	4¢	$2	0x88fcd3…
10-04 10:24:55	Will SpaceX (SPCX) hit (LOW) $115 in October?	Yes	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0xa24892…
10-03 01:59:21	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $74 in October?	Yes	BUY	40	5¢	$2	0x0081b8…
09-30 23:06:30	will xagusd reach 68 in october 2026	Yes	BUY	1	16¢	$0	0x63783d…
09-30 21:03:11	will spy dip to 700 in october 2026	Yes	BUY	60	7¢	$4	0x7927d7…
09-30 20:41:54	will xagusd reach 68 in october 2026	Yes	BUY	5	16¢	$1	0x152276…
09-30 20:27:32	will spy dip to 700 in october 2026	Yes	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0xd6be69…
09-26 16:28:09	Will Luxembourg win on 2026-09-26?	Yes	SELL	50	10¢	$5	0x39dd87…
09-26 16:19:21	Will Luxembourg win on 2026-09-26?	Yes	BUY	50	29¢	$14	0x5e572f…
09-26 14:52:33	Will Luxembourg win on 2026-09-26?	No	BUY	200	74¢	$148	0x4368e0…
09-24 13:58:13	Will IR Iran win on 2026-09-24?	No	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0xbb1be4…
09-24 13:26:08	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in September?	Yes	BUY	174	2¢	$3	0x83ff16…
09-23 14:55:00	Will Tajikistan win on 2026-09-23?	No	BUY	397	80¢	$318	0xb8d2fc…
09-23 07:16:20	Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-09-23?	Yes	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x0247de…
09-23 06:42:37	Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-09-23?	Yes	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x8add26…
09-23 06:42:35	Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-09-23?	Yes	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x3788ed…
09-23 06:41:58	Will Gibraltar win on 2026-09-23?	Yes	BUY	12	68¢	$8	0x948a45…
09-23 06:41:58	Will Gibraltar win on 2026-09-23?	Yes	BUY	88	68¢	$60	0x212364…
09-23 05:49:29	Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-09-23?	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x06d3ee…
09-23 05:47:55	Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-09-23?	Yes	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0x330160…
09-23 03:15:02	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 in September?	Yes	BUY	40	7¢	$3	0xbb838f…
09-22 18:09:40	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	50	78¢	$39	0x3ba8b1…
09-21 22:41:57	Will Italy win on 2026-09-25?	No	BUY	17	54¢	$9	0xa6a3c0…
09-21 17:24:04	Will Italy win on 2026-09-25?	No	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x965bf0…
09-21 17:09:03	Will Italy win on 2026-09-25?	No	BUY	11	54¢	$6	0xbf1d64…
09-21 14:47:14	Will Türkiye win on 2026-09-25?	Yes	BUY	6	13¢	$1	0x238969…
09-21 12:51:20	Will Belgium win on 2026-09-25?	Yes	BUY	30	28¢	$8	0x3e8465…
09-21 07:27:29	Will France win on 2026-09-25?	No	BUY	40	33¢	$13	0xbc23a6…
09-20 19:58:16	Will Portugal win on 2026-09-24?	Yes	BUY	76	79¢	$60	0x990d72…
09-20 16:49:57	Will Portugal win on 2026-09-24?	Yes	BUY	24	79¢	$19	0x191788…
09-20 13:45:00	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in September?	Yes	BUY	40	56¢	$22	0x681ae4…
09-20 12:10:07	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in September?	Yes	BUY	10	15¢	$2	0x06c073…
09-20 11:09:43	Will Sandefjord Fotball win on 2026-09-20?	Yes	BUY	54	45¢	$24	0x10e82e…
09-20 11:08:16	Will Hamarkameratene win on 2026-09-20?	Yes	BUY	70	14¢	$10	0x4a802f…
09-20 07:27:34	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	Yes	SELL	291	3¢	$9	0x18563f…
09-19 10:14:52	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in September?	Yes	BUY	50	8¢	$4	0xf568b7…
09-19 06:26:48	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in September?	Yes	BUY	10	8¢	$1	0x15a994…
09-19 06:25:00	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in September?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x7595bd…
09-15 10:23:57	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	100	11¢	$11	0x9c1e05…
09-15 10:22:27	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	40	9¢	$4	0x437284…
09-14 16:49:13	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $750 in September?	Yes	BUY	60	49¢	$29	0x0691ac…
09-14 16:47:12	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $750 in September?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x9aa7e4…
09-14 16:24:01	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $750 in September?	Yes	BUY	25	50¢	$12	0xc782fa…
09-14 16:23:01	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $750 in September?	Yes	BUY	25	50¢	$12	0xf89883…
09-14 16:21:42	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $750 in September?	Yes	BUY	80	50¢	$40	0xe45d85…
09-12 09:48:36	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $750 in September?	Yes	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x7c36ea…
09-08 15:53:45	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $750 in September?	Yes	BUY	8	42¢	$3	0xf312e0…
09-04 11:28:18	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in September?	Yes	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0x40430f…