Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$48.5K

Unrealized P&L

+$1.53K

Hit rate

77.6%

Resolved

1,833

Trades

24,100

lifetime

Volume

$1.85M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$77

Open exposure

$24.6K

30 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-27 08:45

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 269 days

Categories

Other

55% 49% +$29,780

Politics

44% 53% +$18,631

Tech

1% 32% +$136

Crypto

0% 38% +$61

Sports

0% 0% -$107

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 283 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (21) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027?	No	+4,118	$3,160	70¢	$2.9K	-$267	10-14 23:17
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	Yes	+2,611	$2,407	98¢	$2.6K	+$165	10-25 22:14
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be less than $1T?	Yes	+7,975	$1,093	28¢	$2.2K	+$1,144	10-26 00:35
US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?	Yes	+3,603	$2,494	60¢	$2.2K	-$314	10-20 19:26
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	+2,018	$1,761	98¢	$2.0K	+$217	10-10 21:20
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No	-1,847	-$1,460	97¢	$-1787	-$327	06-14 01:35
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	No	+1,609	$1,482	93¢	$1.5K	+$15	10-16 14:54
Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?	Yes	+5,000	$1,000	18¢	$875	-$125	10-03 06:15
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026?	No	+819	$564	97¢	$797	+$233	08-05 16:41
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31?	No	+682	$512	98¢	$668	+$156	10-14 00:41
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	+664	$655	87¢	$575	-$80	09-28 19:25
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of December?	No	+599	$245	94¢	$560	+$315	09-28 10:46
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	+2,852	$362	18¢	$521	+$158	10-18 23:15
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	-513	-$519	94¢	$-485	+$34	07-21 03:48
will the 10 year treasury yield hit 5pt4 before 2027	No	+636	$390	76¢	$480	+$90	10-18 22:58
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of December?	No	-420	-$406	99¢	$-414	-$9	07-27 05:41
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?	No	+422	$319	88¢	$369	+$50	10-18 22:58
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?	Yes	+2,663	$1,099	13¢	$346	-$753	09-29 18:05
iran charges hormuz fees by october 31	No	+342	$287	96¢	$329	+$42	09-29 18:11
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	+1,068	$433	30¢	$326	-$107	10-25 22:04
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% before 2027?	No	+643	-$211	50¢	$320	+$531	10-27 06:36
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	No	+361	$253	86¢	$312	+$60	10-25 13:49
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $12,000 by end of December?	No	-299	-$304	99¢	$-296	+$8	08-20 21:39
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $15,000 by end of December?	No	-291	-$312	99¢	$-288	+$24	07-29 04:05
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	No	+273	$6	100¢	$272	+$266	09-06 09:17
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	-280	-$249	97¢	$-271	-$22	05-25 20:48
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	No	+1,248	$200	21¢	$262	+$62	10-07 05:17
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Yes	+4,660	$345	6¢	$256	-$89	10-20 16:39
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	-245	-$228	98¢	$-240	-$11	05-25 20:49
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+1,080	$173	22¢	$238	+$65	10-07 04:10

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	106	$40.7K	28,340	26,634	+1,706	No	+$1,227	09-29 00:54
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be at least $2.5T?	20	$32.8K	18,659	17,856	+802	open	—	10-19 21:16
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	547	$32.2K	71,413	70,422	+991	Yes	+$981	03-29 16:52
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?	46	$21.7K	12,132	11,582	+550	No	+$165	07-28 13:58
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	71	$21.7K	16,365	15,701	+664	open	—	09-28 19:25
will crude oil cl hit high 120 by end of march 766 813 597	381	$21.5K	48,376	48,482	-107	No	+$1,342	03-31 09:06
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	83	$20.1K	23,102	22,888	+215	open	—	10-24 21:03
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	48	$19.3K	18,028	13,020	+5,008	Yes	+$262	09-29 22:35
will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	526	$18.6K	116,857	115,941	+916	No	+$1,094	03-29 21:04
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	101	$18.0K	24,141	24,141	+0	open	—	10-19 19:34
will crude oil cl hit high 130 by end of march 366 294	289	$17.9K	59,388	60,737	-1,349	No	+$621	03-30 02:15
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	77	$17.1K	17,894	17,394	+500	No	+$747	08-28 21:32
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	68	$16.0K	15,821	15,331	+490	open	—	10-27 08:03
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	261	$15.7K	26,714	25,959	+756	No	+$1,488	03-31 15:37
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	99	$15.5K	18,209	18,209	+0	No	+$592	09-20 12:34
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	201	$14.9K	19,668	19,668	+0	No	+$331	03-31 16:52
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	55	$14.2K	19,042	18,839	+204	open	—	10-26 00:09
will crude oil cl hit high 140 by end of march 934 621	311	$13.7K	61,874	60,174	+1,700	No	+$537	03-30 11:43
israel x iran ceasefire continues through september 15	16	$12.2K	8,855	3,730	+5,125	Yes	+$147	09-15 21:01
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	96	$11.9K	14,792	14,627	+165	No	+$931	06-14 19:49
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	9	$11.5K	6,566	6,107	+459	No	+$363	09-08 12:24
will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	600	$10.9K	152,157	154,146	-1,989	No	+$269	03-28 13:45
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?	38	$10.8K	11,443	11,443	+0	Yes	+$220	09-22 18:17
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	38	$10.7K	15,726	15,726	+0	open	—	10-21 22:49
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31?	11	$10.6K	6,698	6,698	+0	open	—	10-23 09:50
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	53	$10.4K	9,754	9,754	+0	No	+$911	05-28 11:09
israel x iran ceasefire continues through december 31 415	54	$10.1K	13,543	13,543	+0	open	—	10-27 08:03
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	69	$10.0K	9,225	9,312	-87	Yes	-$398	06-15 03:05
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	59	$9.8K	19,293	17,683	+1,610	No	+$308	08-04 20:23
us announces end of iranian blockade by october 15 2026	24	$9.7K	8,907	6,111	+2,795	No	+$532	10-15 05:36

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 08:45:21	Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 4.95% before 2027?	No	SELL	189	86¢	$163	0x5b272c…
10-27 08:43:21	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in October?	Yes	SELL	3,637	0¢	$7	0x8ac477…
10-27 08:42:53	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in October?	Yes	BUY	1,533	1¢	$9	0x4a2a97…
10-27 08:03:23	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	SELL	514	41¢	$209	0x2c64ff…
10-27 08:03:03	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	1,571	93¢	$1,461	0x1b6a5e…
10-27 07:57:47	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.50% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	263	62¢	$164	0x0f3b5b…
10-27 07:54:50	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 4.90% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	550	73¢	$401	0x69c862…
10-27 07:51:53	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.60% before 2027?	No	BUY	429	50¢	$213	0x0f5744…
10-27 07:51:14	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.70% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	350	74¢	$260	0x54073c…
10-27 07:50:59	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.65% before 2027?	No	BUY	346	38¢	$130	0x01a379…
10-27 07:42:38	Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.50% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	40	47¢	$19	0xda5594…
10-27 07:29:24	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.45% before 2027?	No	BUY	918	74¢	$681	0xfb9f99…
10-27 07:28:57	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.50% before 2027?	No	SELL	235	71¢	$167	0x1212d4…
10-27 07:28:41	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.55% before 2027?	No	SELL	40	64¢	$26	0xfbc24b…
10-27 07:21:41	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.50% before 2027?	No	BUY	1,026	64¢	$656	0x382300…
10-27 07:12:54	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.55% before 2027?	No	BUY	264	55¢	$146	0x7956dc…
10-27 07:04:41	Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.30% before 2027?	No	BUY	319	79¢	$253	0xcd7a9e…
10-27 06:36:09	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.05% before 2027?	No	SELL	474	47¢	$224	0xb020ff…
10-27 06:36:09	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% before 2027?	No	SELL	1,855	53¢	$988	0x8088b8…
10-27 06:36:09	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.05% before 2027?	No	SELL	95	44¢	$42	0x4e05fd…
10-27 06:36:09	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.05% before 2027?	No	SELL	48	44¢	$21	0x21afe3…
10-27 04:52:23	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.05% before 2027?	No	BUY	1,498	43¢	$652	0xb76a1f…
10-27 04:51:42	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% before 2027?	No	BUY	1,847	49¢	$914	0xeb02f7…
10-27 04:51:42	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% before 2027?	No	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0xa8f097…
10-27 02:54:05	Will 0 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	260	77¢	$200	0xff7051…
10-26 21:23:26	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.45% before 2027?	No	SELL	217	72¢	$156	0xdf43ff…
10-26 15:18:57	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	Yes	SELL	300	63¢	$189	0x3f04e5…
10-26 15:18:50	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	BUY	514	38¢	$195	0x37b69c…
10-26 15:11:39	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	515	91¢	$468	0x868829…
10-26 15:11:18	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	620	90¢	$558	0x637dda…
10-26 14:19:44	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.65% before 2027?	No	SELL	204	42¢	$87	0xaa689d…
10-26 14:19:26	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.70% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	333	77¢	$257	0x865e23…
10-26 14:17:27	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.00% before 2027?	No	BUY	343	36¢	$123	0x590c2f…
10-26 14:16:29	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.3% before 2027?	No	BUY	62	57¢	$36	0x1357e0…
10-26 14:10:44	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 4.90% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	486	81¢	$396	0x6b7a2e…
10-26 13:16:51	Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T?	No	SELL	378	70¢	$264	0x66ffe2…
10-26 12:38:50	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.25% in October?	No	SELL	586	98¢	$575	0xb06f7c…
10-26 12:14:11	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.73% in October?	No	SELL	213	99¢	$211	0x163a94…
10-26 12:14:05	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.70% in October?	No	SELL	61	99¢	$60	0x7004da…
10-26 08:47:50	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	436	90¢	$393	0xe6cd64…
10-26 08:22:15	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.60% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	377	55¢	$206	0xc5750a…
10-26 08:09:56	Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 4.95% before 2027?	No	BUY	523	84¢	$439	0x431fee…
10-26 08:09:27	Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.00% before 2027?	No	BUY	757	80¢	$606	0x0eb592…
10-26 08:04:56	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 4.90% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	575	74¢	$426	0x8ee457…
10-26 07:53:35	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.55% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	310	49¢	$152	0x8f2f7c…
10-26 07:53:17	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.60% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0xbc84b4…
10-26 07:52:53	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.65% before 2027?	No	BUY	131	31¢	$40	0x942db3…
10-26 07:52:47	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.60% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	128	60¢	$76	0x8abec2…
10-26 07:52:44	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.60% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0xa0a0f6…
10-26 07:52:42	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.60% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1,086	64¢	$699	0xc098e4…
10-26 07:52:42	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.60% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	66	60¢	$40	0x61e4e8…
10-26 07:52:42	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.70% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	380	83¢	$316	0x5d2c06…
10-26 07:52:41	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.60% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	120	60¢	$72	0x3d5fa6…
10-26 07:52:41	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.60% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0x1b3a64…
10-26 07:39:12	Will 0 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	266	78¢	$207	0x73dbfb…
10-26 07:34:50	Will the Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by October 31?	No	BUY	299	95¢	$284	0xb8c2a2…
10-26 07:33:42	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	750	0¢	$2	0x720765…
10-26 05:33:03	IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?	Yes	BUY	200	13¢	$26	0xf21393…
10-26 04:06:42	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.55% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	516	51¢	$263	0xf463d7…
10-26 04:02:51	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.60% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0x23d9ba…
10-26 04:02:47	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.55% before 2027?	No	BUY	588	45¢	$263	0xdc5afc…
10-26 04:02:47	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.60% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	539	59¢	$316	0x528757…
10-26 03:47:12	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in October?	Yes	BUY	390	2¢	$10	0x5c978b…
10-26 03:31:32	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in October?	Yes	BUY	6	2¢	$0	0xa4c2a7…
10-26 03:25:41	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in October?	Yes	SELL	157	1¢	$1	0x183569…
10-26 03:25:09	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	BUY	250	56¢	$140	0x69cca8…
10-26 03:21:12	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in October?	Yes	BUY	994	2¢	$20	0x320d94…
10-26 01:32:56	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.65% before 2027?	No	SELL	87	38¢	$33	0xd7018b…
10-26 01:31:00	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.05% before 2027?	No	BUY	205	36¢	$73	0x459538…
10-26 01:30:44	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.00% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	380	71¢	$269	0x88743a…
10-26 01:30:36	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 4.90% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	404	84¢	$339	0x88e329…
10-26 01:27:38	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.3% before 2027?	No	BUY	90	59¢	$53	0x0ed5bf…
10-26 01:27:02	Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.9% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	40	78¢	$31	0x26975b…
10-26 01:21:00	Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.25% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	270	80¢	$216	0x4b9a9a…
10-26 01:20:32	Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.25% in October?	Yes	BUY	20	36¢	$7	0x1dd340…
10-26 01:13:02	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.32% in October?	Yes	BUY	31	2¢	$0	0x08cebb…
10-26 00:51:41	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.55% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	423	45¢	$192	0xaea733…
10-26 00:51:29	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.50% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	206	39¢	$80	0x7a4d85…
10-26 00:51:05	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.70% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	465	72¢	$336	0xdef61f…
10-26 00:50:14	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.65% before 2027?	No	SELL	102	42¢	$43	0x380435…
10-26 00:35:15	Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be less than $1T?	Yes	BUY	532	29¢	$155	0xc3e447…
10-26 00:09:08	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Yes	SELL	853	18¢	$153	0x97e038…
10-25 23:59:38	Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.90% in October?	No	SELL	22	84¢	$18	0x4f1aca…
10-25 23:57:50	Will Iran sabotage undersea internet cables by October 31?	No	BUY	936	94¢	$879	0x544e19…
10-25 23:07:17	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Yes	SELL	284	19¢	$54	0x9170e6…
10-25 23:03:39	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in October?	Yes	BUY	1,700	1¢	$10	0x61ebd3…
10-25 22:46:21	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in October?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$4	0x76d202…
10-25 22:41:56	Will 0 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	94	86¢	$81	0x62f40e…
10-25 22:41:47	Will 0 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	153	86¢	$132	0x446f11…
10-25 22:41:42	Will 0 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	118	91¢	$108	0x51d24a…
10-25 22:39:48	Will 0 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	31	86¢	$27	0xf1ab81…
10-25 22:39:44	Will 0 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	31	91¢	$28	0x71371a…
10-25 22:37:32	Will 0 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	47	86¢	$40	0x308ddf…
10-25 22:37:24	Will 0 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	250	86¢	$215	0x19780c…
10-25 22:37:11	Will 0 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	111	86¢	$95	0x5d27a7…
10-25 22:37:05	Will 0 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	25	86¢	$21	0x2c9a15…
10-25 22:15:11	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in October?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0xab51ec…
10-25 22:14:15	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	Yes	BUY	250	90¢	$225	0x980af5…
10-25 22:08:33	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	Yes	BUY	1,182	91¢	$1,076	0x29757a…
10-25 22:08:27	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in October?	Yes	BUY	1,063	1¢	$15	0x52a30e…