Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.56% in November?
open
Total volume
$937
$96 in 24h
Trades
82
Unique wallets
22
Liquidity
$541
Latest YES mid
12¢
Latest NO mid
88¢
End date
2026-12-01
First seen
2026-11-04
last 11-11 18:21
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-5.3¢
(top1%: 35% YES on $67
vs crowd: 40% YES on $717)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 7 | $118 | $235 | $116 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 9 | $84 | $130 | $46 |
| 🐟 Fish | 6 | $87 | $64 | +$23 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 2 | $23 | $43 | $20 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 4 | $77 | $42 | +$35 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 1 | $20 | — | +$20 |
| Median | 1 | $2 | $22 | $20 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 1 | $4 | $30 | $27 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 3 | $21 | $73 | $51 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 10 | $141 | $218 | $76 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +281 | $111 | $111 | 11 | 11-11 07:53 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +235 | $118 | $118 | 8 | 11-11 00:18 |
| Prickly-Eyrie 0x66e7…8bcd | No | +70 | $45 | $45 | 3 | 11-10 14:40 |
| Dual-Cephalopod 0x460a…d738 | No | +70 | $56 | $56 | 5 | 11-11 18:21 |
| (anonymous) 0x037b…a36f | Yes | +49 | $28 | $28 | 1 | 11-08 14:20 |
| (anonymous) 0x5768…3bae | No | +35 | $21 | $63 | 5 | 11-10 16:39 |
| (anonymous) 0xc84a…8264 | Yes | +34 | $20 | $20 | 1 | 11-04 23:10 |
| (anonymous) 0xbb15…626c | Yes | +33 | $19 | $19 | 3 | 11-10 10:38 |
| (anonymous) 0xbb15…626c | No | +33 | $17 | $17 | 2 | 11-10 10:38 |
| Fuzzy-Draft 0xfe93…8d0e | Yes | +30 | $15 | $15 | 1 | 11-10 10:08 |
| (anonymous) 0x30fb…7db4 | Yes | +29 | $8 | $8 | 2 | 11-10 14:40 |
| Rubbery-Policy 0x2cfe…e4de | No | +25 | $14 | $14 | 1 | 11-10 13:49 |
| (anonymous) 0xf65f…bc73 | Yes | +20 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 11-11 18:21 |
| (anonymous) 0x4c9a…0cd4 | No | +17 | $14 | $14 | 1 | 11-11 06:37 |
| (anonymous) 0xf65f…bc73 | No | +12 | -$4 | $47 | 3 | 11-11 00:18 |
| (anonymous) 0x977a…4b41 | Yes | +11 | $2 | $5 | 2 | 11-11 07:53 |
| (anonymous) 0xa1cc…fa62 | Yes | +5 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 11-05 00:08 |
| (anonymous) 0x40c7…b1e8 | Yes | +5 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 11-10 14:40 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-11 18:21:04 | (anonymous) 0xf65f…bc73 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 10¢ | $2 | 0xee9bd5… |
| 11-11 18:21:04 | Dual-Cephalopod 0x460a…d738 | No | BUY | 20 | 90¢ | $18 | 0xee9bd5… |
| 11-11 07:53:06 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 9 | 13¢ | $1 | 0x2b1087… |
| 11-11 07:53:06 | (anonymous) 0x977a…4b41 | Yes | SELL | 9 | 13¢ | $1 | 0x2b1087… |
| 11-11 06:37:30 | (anonymous) 0xdc05…9a76 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 15¢ | $3 | 0x9ed713… |
| 11-11 06:37:30 | (anonymous) 0x4c9a…0cd4 | No | BUY | 17 | 85¢ | $14 | 0x9ed713… |
| 11-11 06:37:30 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 37 | 15¢ | $6 | 0x9ed713… |
| 11-11 00:18:49 | (anonymous) 0xf65f…bc73 | No | SELL | 30 | 84¢ | $25 | 0x21ce11… |
| 11-11 00:18:49 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 30 | 84¢ | $25 | 0x21ce11… |
| 11-11 00:08:34 | (anonymous) 0x977a…4b41 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 18¢ | $4 | 0x0f4e06… |
| 11-11 00:08:34 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 20 | 82¢ | $16 | 0x0f4e06… |
| 11-10 16:39:00 | Dual-Cephalopod 0x460a…d738 | No | BUY | 20 | 90¢ | $18 | 0xaa9a84… |
| 11-10 16:39:00 | (anonymous) 0x5768…3bae | No | SELL | 15 | 90¢ | $14 | 0xaa9a84… |
| 11-10 16:39:00 | (anonymous) 0x977a…4b41 | No | SELL | 5 | 89¢ | $4 | 0xaa9a84… |
| 11-10 14:40:19 | (anonymous) 0x40c7…b1e8 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 15¢ | $1 | 0xdf4192… |
| 11-10 14:40:19 | Dual-Cephalopod 0x460a…d738 | No | BUY | 5 | 85¢ | $4 | 0xdf4192… |
| 11-10 14:40:13 | (anonymous) 0x30fb…7db4 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 20¢ | $4 | 0x6420db… |
| 11-10 14:40:13 | (anonymous) 0x977a…4b41 | No | SELL | 15 | 80¢ | $12 | 0x7ebb65… |
| 11-10 14:40:13 | Dual-Cephalopod 0x460a…d738 | No | BUY | 15 | 80¢ | $12 | 0x7ebb65… |
| 11-10 14:40:13 | Prickly-Eyrie 0x66e7…8bcd | No | BUY | 20 | 80¢ | $16 | 0x6420db… |
| 11-10 14:07:33 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 32¢ | $16 | 0x1e8a45… |
| 11-10 14:07:33 | (anonymous) 0x5768…3bae | No | BUY | 50 | 68¢ | $34 | 0x1e8a45… |
| 11-10 13:50:00 | (anonymous) 0x30fb…7db4 | Yes | BUY | 9 | 42¢ | $4 | 0xd83626… |
| 11-10 13:50:00 | Neighboring-Eyebrows 0xedc8…3296 | No | SELL | 15 | 58¢ | $9 | 0xd83626… |
| 11-10 13:50:00 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 24 | 58¢ | $14 | 0xd83626… |
| 11-10 13:49:58 | Prickly-Eyrie 0x66e7…8bcd | No | BUY | 25 | 58¢ | $14 | 0xc0d0a0… |
| 11-10 13:49:58 | Neighboring-Eyebrows 0xedc8…3296 | No | SELL | 25 | 58¢ | $14 | 0xc0d0a0… |
| 11-10 13:49:57 | Rubbery-Policy 0x2cfe…e4de | No | BUY | 25 | 58¢ | $14 | 0xf7831c… |
| 11-10 13:49:57 | Neighboring-Eyebrows 0xedc8…3296 | No | SELL | 25 | 58¢ | $14 | 0xf7831c… |
| 11-10 13:49:52 | Prickly-Eyrie 0x66e7…8bcd | No | BUY | 25 | 58¢ | $14 | 0x137a15… |
| 11-10 13:49:52 | Neighboring-Eyebrows 0xedc8…3296 | No | SELL | 25 | 58¢ | $14 | 0x137a15… |
| 11-10 13:45:09 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 45¢ | $22 | 0x3e8ed1… |
| 11-10 13:45:09 | (anonymous) 0x5768…3bae | Yes | SELL | 50 | 45¢ | $22 | 0x3e8ed1… |
| 11-10 10:38:43 | (anonymous) 0x977a…4b41 | No | SELL | 0 | 57¢ | $0 | 0x18fe8d… |
| 11-10 10:38:43 | (anonymous) 0xbb15…626c | Yes | SELL | 0 | 43¢ | $0 | 0x18fe8d… |
| 11-10 10:38:37 | (anonymous) 0xbb15…626c | No | BUY | 20 | 57¢ | $11 | 0xc4e34d… |
| 11-10 10:38:37 | (anonymous) 0x977a…4b41 | No | SELL | 20 | 57¢ | $11 | 0xc4e34d… |
| 11-10 10:08:24 | Fuzzy-Draft 0xfe93…8d0e | Yes | BUY | 30 | 50¢ | $15 | 0xfbf68b… |
| 11-10 10:08:24 | Neighboring-Eyebrows 0xedc8…3296 | No | BUY | 90 | 48¢ | $43 | 0xfbf68b… |
| 11-10 10:08:24 | (anonymous) 0xdc05…9a76 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 53¢ | $11 | 0xfbf68b… |
| 11-10 10:08:24 | (anonymous) 0xbb15…626c | Yes | BUY | 20 | 53¢ | $11 | 0xfbf68b… |
| 11-10 10:08:24 | Oddball-Poison 0x2b9d…95f4 | No | SELL | 20 | 47¢ | $9 | 0xfbf68b… |
| 11-10 06:22:03 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 21 | 50¢ | $10 | 0xb03ca9… |
| 11-10 06:22:03 | (anonymous) 0xf65f…bc73 | No | BUY | 21 | 50¢ | $10 | 0xb03ca9… |
| 11-10 03:06:07 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 51¢ | $10 | 0x317ce1… |
| 11-10 03:06:07 | (anonymous) 0x977a…4b41 | No | BUY | 20 | 49¢ | $10 | 0x317ce1… |
| 11-10 02:23:18 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 21 | 47¢ | $10 | 0xa7dd54… |
| 11-10 02:23:18 | (anonymous) 0xf65f…bc73 | No | BUY | 21 | 53¢ | $11 | 0xa7dd54… |
| 11-08 14:20:28 | (anonymous) 0x037b…a36f | Yes | BUY | 49 | 56¢ | $28 | 0xdfae20… |
| 11-08 14:20:28 | (anonymous) 0x977a…4b41 | No | BUY | 20 | 44¢ | $9 | 0xdfae20… |
| 11-08 14:20:28 | Third-Odyssey 0xa53b…4021 | Yes | SELL | 29 | 56¢ | $16 | 0xdfae20… |
| 11-06 07:37:33 | Remarkable-Underpass 0xe102…71df | No | SELL | 20 | 30¢ | $6 | 0xbbbace… |
| 11-06 07:37:33 | Oddball-Poison 0x2b9d…95f4 | No | BUY | 20 | 30¢ | $6 | 0xbbbace… |
| 11-05 23:10:28 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 50 | 32¢ | $16 | 0x9105ca… |
| 11-05 23:10:28 | (anonymous) 0x5768…3bae | Yes | BUY | 50 | 68¢ | $34 | 0x9105ca… |
| 11-05 17:47:13 | (anonymous) 0x977a…4b41 | No | SELL | 20 | 37¢ | $7 | 0xa2a732… |
| 11-05 17:47:13 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 20 | 37¢ | $7 | 0xa2a732… |
| 11-05 15:51:55 | (anonymous) 0x5768…3bae | No | SELL | 18 | 40¢ | $7 | 0x68c49b… |
| 11-05 15:51:55 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 18 | 40¢ | $7 | 0x68c49b… |
| 11-05 12:26:07 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 13 | 56¢ | $7 | 0x44115a… |
| 11-05 12:26:07 | (anonymous) 0x5768…3bae | No | BUY | 13 | 44¢ | $6 | 0x44115a… |
| 11-05 00:08:52 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 56¢ | $11 | 0x8f8a2c… |
| 11-05 00:08:52 | Remarkable-Underpass 0xe102…71df | No | BUY | 20 | 44¢ | $9 | 0x8f8a2c… |
| 11-05 00:08:51 | (anonymous) 0xa1cc…fa62 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 55¢ | $3 | 0x2fc907… |
| 11-05 00:08:51 | (anonymous) 0x5768…3bae | No | BUY | 5 | 45¢ | $2 | 0x2fc907… |
| 11-05 00:08:48 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 21 | 48¢ | $10 | 0x6e2924… |
| 11-05 00:08:48 | Third-Odyssey 0xa53b…4021 | Yes | BUY | 21 | 52¢ | $11 | 0x6e2924… |
| 11-04 23:12:19 | Third-Odyssey 0xa53b…4021 | Yes | SELL | 13 | 63¢ | $8 | 0x078305… |
| 11-04 23:12:19 | (anonymous) 0xbb15…626c | Yes | BUY | 13 | 63¢ | $8 | 0x078305… |
| 11-04 23:10:18 | (anonymous) 0xbb15…626c | No | BUY | 13 | 41¢ | $5 | 0x496223… |
| 11-04 23:10:18 | (anonymous) 0x03a4…92ea | Yes | SELL | 21 | 59¢ | $12 | 0x496223… |
| 11-04 23:10:18 | (anonymous) 0xc84a…8264 | Yes | BUY | 34 | 59¢ | $20 | 0x496223… |
| 11-04 23:10:10 | Third-Odyssey 0xa53b…4021 | Yes | BUY | 21 | 59¢ | $12 | 0xcc62c8… |
| 11-04 23:10:10 | (anonymous) 0x4462…bfdf | No | SELL | 10 | 41¢ | $4 | 0xcc62c8… |
| 11-04 23:10:10 | (anonymous) 0x03a4…92ea | Yes | BUY | 21 | 59¢ | $12 | 0xcc62c8… |
| 11-04 23:10:10 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 52 | 41¢ | $21 | 0xcc62c8… |
| 11-04 22:24:45 | (anonymous) 0x4462…bfdf | No | SELL | 10 | 41¢ | $4 | 0x4b8bee… |
| 11-04 22:24:45 | Dual-Cephalopod 0x460a…d738 | No | BUY | 10 | 41¢ | $4 | 0x4b8bee… |
| 11-04 10:14:01 | (anonymous) 0x4462…bfdf | No | BUY | 20 | 59¢ | $12 | 0x932800… |
| 11-04 10:14:01 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 41¢ | $8 | 0x932800… |
| 11-04 00:10:52 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 41¢ | $8 | 0x8a923c… |
| 11-04 00:10:52 | (anonymous) 0x977a…4b41 | No | BUY | 20 | 59¢ | $12 | 0x8a923c… |