Realized P&L
-$9.04K
Unrealized P&L
+$25
Hit rate
8.8%
Resolved
10,331
Trades
64,332
lifetime
Volume
$491.8K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$8
Open exposure
$2.44K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-30 04:58
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 247 days
Categories
Other
77% 6% -$6,109
Politics
14% 8% -$2,117
Tech
5% 18% -$405
Sports
3% 12% -$451
Crypto
1% 13% +$152
Pop-Culture
0% 5% -$114
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk • peak 1621 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No -225 -$183 95¢ $-214 -$30 07-29 22:26
Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election? Yes +230 $145 72¢ $164 +$19 10-30 00:50
Will Joint List win 12 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections? No +120 $116 98¢ $118 +$2 10-29 17:19
Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 150m and 160m by October 31? Yes +120 $108 98¢ $118 +$10 10-21 01:46
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +115 $102 98¢ $113 +$11 10-21 23:43
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No -120 -$93 90¢ $-107 -$14 08-24 08:51
Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026? No +160 $67 64¢ $103 +$36 10-17 20:26
Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? No +195 $113 52¢ $101 -$12 10-17 08:23
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31? No +100 $93 96¢ $96 +$4 10-26 19:28
Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? Yes +195 $96 48¢ $94 -$2 10-17 08:23
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes +90 $85 99¢ $89 +$4 10-28 09:14
Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026? Yes +90 $59 96¢ $86 +$28 10-27 15:46
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? No -85 -$76 98¢ $-83 -$8 07-29 22:26
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of October 2026? Yes +76 $77 98¢ $74 -$3 10-28 20:09
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027? Yes +171 $56 41¢ $70 +$14 10-23 03:46
Israeli Knesset election annulled? No — +70 $64 97¢ $68 +$4 10-28 21:42
Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election? No +230 $93 29¢ $66 -$27 10-30 00:50
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting? No +70 $65 88¢ $62 -$4 10-28 11:33
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting? Yes +70 $63 87¢ $61 -$2 10-28 09:49
Predict.fun FDV above $3B one day after launch? No — +60 $53 96¢ $58 +$4 10-22 00:53
Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election? No +80 $59 72¢ $57 -$2 10-26 10:44
Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026? Yes +160 $95 36¢ $57 -$38 10-17 20:26
Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026? No -59 -$56 96¢ $-56 +$0 05-27 19:40
Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026? No +55 $27 98¢ $54 +$27 10-27 15:32
Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary? No +60 $50 90¢ $54 +$4 10-17 10:29
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026? No — +60 $56 90¢ $54 -$2 10-30 04:11
Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary? No +60 $54 82¢ $49 -$5 10-26 20:09
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026? Yes +40 $38 99¢ $40 +$2 10-16 03:28
NATO x Russia military clash by November 30, 2026? No +40 $30 92¢ $37 +$7 10-22 18:52
Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes +40 $37 92¢ $37 $0 10-27 21:10