Weak-Threshold — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$736

Unrealized P&L

+$5

Hit rate

79.5%

Resolved

Trades

819

lifetime

Volume

$8.03K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

$449

2 positions

First seen

2026-03-03

last 06-30 12:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 10 days

Categories

Other

71% 54% +$736

Crypto

29% — —

Tech

0% — —

Politics

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

40 active days in 12wk • peak 45 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (12) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Yes		+596	$441	74¢	$444	+$3	06-30 13:19
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes		-120	$-7	4¢	$-5	+$2	06-08 10:49

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs magic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2: Closed Qualifier Playoffs	36	$965	1,695	99	+1,596	open	—	05-03 08:51
Counter-Strike: Zomblers vs InControl (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship North American Playoffs	16	$664	1,334	0	+1,334	open	—	05-02 15:52
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Group Stage	20	$452	830	0	+830	Walczaki	+$378	05-06 11:20
LoL: Ultra Prime vs LNG Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana	1	$451	480	0	+480	LNG Esports	+$29	05-08 10:41
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	7	$441	596	0	+596	open	—	06-30 13:19
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs magic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2: Closed Qualifier Playoffs	23	$396	1,159	0	+1,159	open	—	05-02 12:01
Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs Isurus (BO3) - CCT South America Series #1 Group Stage	12	$226	363	0	+363	UNO MILLE	+$136	05-05 13:56
LoL: T1 vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner	4	$169	106	106	+0	T1	$-1	05-13 04:26
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Lavked (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series #1 Group Stage	9	$164	297	6	+291	Walczaki	+$133	05-05 14:28
Counter-Strike: BET-M 33 vs Walczaki (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Playoffs	4	$160	250	0	+250	Walczaki	+$90	05-12 07:42
will the republic of the congo have an ebola case in 2026	1	$150	200	0	+200	open	—	06-23 01:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	1	$84	105	0	+105	open	—	04-29 14:13
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner	11	$73	136	135	+1	open	—	05-14 12:33
Counter-Strike: Galorys vs paiN Academy (BO3) - CCT South America Series #1 Playoffs	4	$73	200	200	+0	Galorys	$-7	05-08 04:23
Games Total: O/U 2.5	8	$72	81	0	+81	Under	+$9	05-12 09:16
Counter-Strike: Imperial vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - CCT South America Series #1 Playoffs	1	$71	100	0	+100	Imperial	+$29	05-09 03:24
cs2 g1 100t 2026 06 20	2	$68	100	0	+100	open	—	06-20 11:59
Games Total: O/U 2.5	1	$67	100	0	+100	Over	$-67	05-12 07:46
cs2 lilmix newvis 2026 06 30	1	$62	100	0	+100	open	—	06-29 07:22
sol updown 15m 1773791100	3	$62	90	89	+1	open	—	03-17 23:53
cs2 isg mibra 2026 06 24	2	$62	99	0	+99	open	—	06-24 05:29
cs2 lilmix ene 2026 06 21	1	$50	100	0	+100	open	—	06-21 01:31
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs Walczaki (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Playoffs	1	$49	100	0	+100	open	—	05-14 01:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4AM ET	7	$49	90	0	+90	open	—	04-29 08:54
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 2 Winner	5	$48	126	5	+121	T1	+$7	05-12 09:26
LoL: T1 vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner	3	$46	28	28	+0	T1	+$1	05-13 04:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	2	$46	35	35	+0	open	—	04-29 13:43
Counter-Strike: ex-KRÜ Esports vs paiN Academy (BO3) - CCT South America Series 2 Group Stage	1	$43	100	0	+100	open	—	05-19 13:20
btc updown 15m 1772600400	4	$42	34	34	+0	open	—	03-04 05:14
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Walczaki (BO3) - Conquest of Prague Finals Playoffs	9	$42	100	0	+100	open	—	05-20 00:30

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-30 13:19:05	Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	75¢	$38	0x9ae424…
06-30 12:31:37	will rwanda have an ebola case in 2026	No	BUY	12	63¢	$8	0xe24170…
06-30 12:27:47	will rwanda have an ebola case in 2026	No	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x0dc144…
06-29 07:22:10	cs2 lilmix newvis 2026 06 30	NEW VISION	BUY	100	62¢	$62	0x818e9b…
06-24 05:29:35	cs2 isg mibra 2026 06 24	Isurus	BUY	93	62¢	$58	0x4d676b…
06-24 05:27:07	cs2 isg mibra 2026 06 24	Isurus	BUY	6	61¢	$4	0x314f21…
06-24 05:08:19	Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Yes	BUY	155	71¢	$110	0x801666…
06-24 05:03:59	Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	70¢	$6	0x2f77a2…
06-24 05:03:44	Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	70¢	$70	0xa9e3a3…
06-24 05:03:08	Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	70¢	$56	0x07d779…
06-24 05:02:38	Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	69¢	$14	0x7bd7d9…
06-23 02:05:53	Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Yes	BUY	182	81¢	$147	0xf9428f…
06-23 01:54:26	will the republic of the congo have an ebola case in 2026	No	BUY	200	75¢	$150	0xc6497f…
06-23 01:42:28	will china have an ebola case in 2026	No	BUY	8	74¢	$6	0x9be0f5…
06-23 01:42:26	will china have an ebola case in 2026	No	BUY	18	72¢	$13	0xcc0c22…
06-23 01:40:55	will rwanda have an ebola case in 2026	Yes	SELL	4	65¢	$2	0x7cbb1f…
06-21 01:31:16	cs2 lilmix ene 2026 06 21	Lilmix	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0x4bd384…
06-20 11:59:05	cs2 g1 100t 2026 06 20	100 Thieves	BUY	50	68¢	$34	0x385d01…
06-20 11:41:43	cs2 g1 100t 2026 06 20	100 Thieves	BUY	50	68¢	$34	0x9484f0…
06-20 07:32:23	val mdr qe 2026 06 23	AlQadsiah Esports	BUY	19	48¢	$9	0x6e99e2…
06-08 10:49:48	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	60	6¢	$3	0x7233b4…
06-08 10:43:34	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	60	6¢	$3	0xeb7dbc…
05-31 09:40:46	Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	23¢	$2	0x56bb9b…
05-31 09:29:30	Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	24¢	$2	0x470d78…
05-31 09:27:35	Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	121	18¢	$22	0x7a0011…
05-31 08:37:37	XRP Up or Down - May 31, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	SELL	0	11¢	$0	0xeb9003…
05-31 08:31:47	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	SELL	0	59¢	$0	0xb59080…
05-31 08:31:40	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Up	SELL	0	30¢	$0	0x8b6c0c…
05-31 08:31:33	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	SELL	0	16¢	$0	0x0aef83…
05-31 08:30:54	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	SELL	10	20¢	$2	0x5f556c…
05-31 08:30:44	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	10	22¢	$2	0x8c519f…
05-31 08:30:37	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Up	SELL	10	33¢	$3	0x434fc9…
05-31 08:30:28	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	10	37¢	$4	0x3612a6…
05-31 08:28:19	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	SELL	10	61¢	$6	0x0ce54c…
05-31 08:28:10	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	64¢	$7	0xb2b650…
05-31 01:47:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Up	SELL	0	75¢	$0	0x674434…
05-31 01:47:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Up	SELL	0	72¢	$0	0xf42221…
05-31 01:46:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Up	SELL	0	80¢	$0	0x65bb47…
05-31 01:46:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Up	SELL	10	78¢	$8	0xd7e2ea…
05-31 01:46:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0xd60e4a…
05-31 01:45:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Up	SELL	10	38¢	$4	0x271e40…
05-31 01:45:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	Up	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0x10bafe…
05-31 01:45:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Up	SELL	10	57¢	$6	0x7edede…
05-31 01:45:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0xe4dea7…
05-31 01:44:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Up	SELL	0	80¢	$0	0x49fa11…
05-31 01:43:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Up	SELL	10	86¢	$9	0xe5d1e8…
05-31 01:42:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0x5a7684…
05-30 21:44:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Up	SELL	9	45¢	$4	0x45fe21…
05-30 21:44:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Up	BUY	11	51¢	$6	0x816346…
05-30 21:43:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Up	SELL	10	60¢	$6	0x9bda9f…
05-30 21:43:05	BNB Up or Down - May 30, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0x6f48c8…
05-30 21:43:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Up	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0x6b95db…
05-30 21:43:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Up	SELL	10	49¢	$5	0xcf8291…
05-30 21:42:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Up	BUY	11	74¢	$8	0xf92fa6…
05-30 21:41:57	BNB Up or Down - May 30, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Down	SELL	10	67¢	$7	0xfc5d96…
05-30 21:41:53	BNB Up or Down - May 30, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	11	68¢	$7	0x11e2e2…
05-30 21:12:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	SELL	10	32¢	$3	0xe89e59…
05-30 21:12:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	11	34¢	$4	0x6b3ac9…
05-30 21:12:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	SELL	10	39¢	$4	0xb2406d…
05-30 21:12:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	12	48¢	$6	0x48a30b…
05-30 19:14:25	BNB Up or Down - May 30, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xeac757…
05-30 12:28:45	BNB Up or Down - May 30, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	10	14¢	$1	0xf09eb3…
05-30 11:29:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x004df1…
05-30 09:26:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0xe29429…
05-30 09:26:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x4b0de7…
05-30 08:28:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0xc83317…
05-30 08:13:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0xbded2f…
05-30 08:13:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	10	46¢	$5	0x089ba2…
05-29 08:44:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	10	33¢	$3	0xb0739f…
05-29 08:44:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	11	43¢	$5	0x916355…
05-29 08:44:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Up	SELL	5	34¢	$2	0xa92822…
05-29 08:44:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x250ffb…
05-29 08:44:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	16	35¢	$5	0xfbedee…
05-29 08:44:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	10	39¢	$4	0xb6a9b0…
05-29 04:42:37	hype updown 15m 1780029000	Down	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x3b6161…
05-29 03:59:09	Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Up	SELL	10	13¢	$1	0xf26b9c…
05-29 03:59:09	Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	11	13¢	$1	0x4bd7df…
05-29 03:56:07	Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	11	58¢	$6	0xef0cba…
05-28 14:12:55	Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x8f17d9…
05-26 03:56:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Up	SELL	1	60¢	$0	0x6dea42…
05-26 03:55:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Up	SELL	10	60¢	$6	0x7cd38d…
05-26 03:55:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	65¢	$7	0x231dc3…
05-26 03:55:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Up	SELL	10	55¢	$6	0x6e9128…
05-26 03:55:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0xdbbc31…
05-26 03:37:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Up	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x97ed64…
05-26 03:34:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Up	SELL	10	82¢	$8	0x9c06e2…
05-26 03:34:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	10	84¢	$9	0xc19730…
05-26 03:34:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Up	SELL	10	78¢	$8	0x86b138…
05-26 03:34:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	10	82¢	$8	0x223bac…
05-26 02:18:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Up	SELL	10	40¢	$4	0xcd0750…
05-26 02:18:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	41¢	$4	0x122ce8…
05-26 02:08:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Up	SELL	0	61¢	$0	0xdbb95a…
05-26 02:00:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Up	SELL	10	36¢	$4	0x973566…
05-26 02:00:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x51974b…
05-26 01:46:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Up	SELL	10	74¢	$7	0x96ac4b…
05-26 01:46:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	72¢	$7	0x2c3b1e…
05-26 01:19:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Up	SELL	10	12¢	$1	0x434516…
05-26 01:19:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	13¢	$1	0x94f1ce…
05-26 01:19:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Up	SELL	10	54¢	$5	0xaeb1af…
05-26 01:19:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	55¢	$6	0xa800ba…