Grumpy-Invader — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$53

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

86.3%

Resolved

476

Trades

16,337

lifetime

Volume

$203.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-03

last 08-21 17:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Other

48% 0% $-11

Politics

28% — —

Sports

10% — —

Crypto

8% 89% $-42

Tech

5% — —

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

84 active days in 12wk • peak 485 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
gpt 5pt6 released by july 7 2026	126	$2.7K	1,964	1,963	+1	open	—	07-07 11:40
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	130	$2.6K	2,450	2,498	-48	open	—	07-22 19:00
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	90	$2.0K	2,201	2,200	+1	open	—	08-01 18:49
iran military action against a gulf state on july 19 20260708212322944	95	$1.4K	1,542	1,540	+1	open	—	07-19 18:55
taylor swift x travis kelce get married by july 3	76	$1.3K	1,168	1,167	+1	open	—	07-02 23:03
iran military action against a gulf state on july 9 20260708212322934	90	$1.2K	1,273	1,272	+1	open	—	07-14 00:52
israel closes its airspace by july 24	39	$1.2K	890	888	+1	open	—	07-20 18:34
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 20 20260716224448965	65	$1.2K	1,137	1,136	+1	open	—	07-20 06:12
iran military action against a gulf state on july 11 20260708212322936	77	$1.2K	1,438	1,437	+1	open	—	07-12 21:58
iran full airspace closure by july 24	44	$1.0K	1,159	1,158	+0	open	—	07-24 19:56
iran charges hormuz fees by july 31	36	$1.0K	738	737	+0	open	—	07-20 02:44
will mishal al ahmad al jaber al sabah sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950083	34	$1.0K	600	643	-43	open	—	06-21 03:44
will trump say fake news during white house correspondents dinner 20260715212255815	43	$1.0K	701	700	+1	open	—	07-25 01:38
israel closes its airspace by august 15	43	$970	918	917	+1	open	—	08-05 16:40
iran military action against a gulf state on july 12 20260708212322937	35	$907	694	694	+0	open	—	07-14 02:00
will mohammed bin salman sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950077	24	$890	490	490	+0	open	—	06-22 10:36
will spy dip to 700 in june 2026	25	$850	647	645	+2	open	—	06-26 15:52
iran military action against a gulf state on july 14 20260708212322939	59	$836	883	883	+1	open	—	07-15 23:43
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 16 2026 20260612160513701	36	$832	733	781	-49	open	—	06-17 06:17
iran military action against a gulf state on july 15 20260708212322940	30	$806	533	532	+1	open	—	07-19 09:15
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?	33	$799	737	737	-1	open	—	05-23 05:16
iran military action against a gulf state on july 10 20260708212322935	39	$791	697	696	+1	open	—	07-11 02:24
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026?	44	$778	873	872	+2	open	—	06-22 19:13
will dow say carbon 5 times during earnings call 20260717163814086	29	$777	608	607	+1	open	—	07-24 11:24
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 13	42	$760	770	706	+64	open	—	06-14 22:53
will lab dip to 6 before 2027	30	$748	501	501	+1	open	—	06-29 12:50
Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?	34	$730	726	726	+0	open	—	05-17 16:09
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?	29	$683	610	609	+1	open	—	06-30 19:12
will trump say crazy or amazing 5 times during ufc 250 20260610182827976	36	$683	546	586	-40	open	—	06-17 16:59
qcom quarterly earnings nongaap eps 07 29 2026 2pt23	16	$661	362	361	+1	open	—	07-25 13:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-21 21:49:16	will russia target kyiv by august 22 2026	No	SELL	30	2¢	$1	0x273a1e…
08-21 21:47:21	will russia target kyiv by august 22 2026	No	BUY	30	5¢	$1	0x02248d…
08-21 21:43:15	will russia target kyiv by august 22 2026	No	SELL	30	2¢	$1	0x99661d…
08-21 21:40:43	will russia target kyiv by august 22 2026	No	BUY	30	5¢	$1	0x7f596d…
08-21 21:19:13	will russia target kyiv by august 22 2026	No	SELL	30	2¢	$1	0x7dc613…
08-21 21:16:06	will russia target kyiv by august 22 2026	No	BUY	30	5¢	$1	0x7d5340…
08-21 20:31:22	will crisp penta in lpl split 3 2026 20260730215841831	Yes	SELL	40	0¢	$0	0x893f86…
08-21 17:40:46	which cities face tornado risk on august 21 2026 wichita ks	Yes	SELL	50	3¢	$2	0xb28c48…
08-21 17:39:03	which cities face tornado risk on august 21 2026 wichita ks	Yes	BUY	18	5¢	$1	0x09ce1d…
08-21 17:39:00	which cities face tornado risk on august 21 2026 wichita ks	Yes	BUY	32	5¢	$2	0x287c80…
08-21 17:37:48	which cities face tornado risk on august 21 2026 wichita ks	Yes	SELL	50	6¢	$3	0xfae6f1…
08-21 17:35:30	which cities face tornado risk on august 21 2026 wichita ks	Yes	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0x431363…
08-21 17:32:13	which cities face tornado risk on august 21 2026 minneapolis mn	Yes	SELL	1	2¢	$0	0x465a57…
08-21 17:27:12	which cities face tornado risk on august 21 2026 minneapolis mn	Yes	BUY	1	3¢	$0	0x2dce3c…
08-21 17:26:07	which cities face tornado risk on august 21 2026 birmingham al	Yes	SELL	30	3¢	$1	0x2b9f50…
08-21 17:22:46	which cities face tornado risk on august 21 2026 birmingham al	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0x6cacad…
08-21 17:20:15	which cities face tornado risk on august 21 2026 fort worth tx	Yes	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0xaa9f6f…
08-21 17:19:55	which cities face tornado risk on august 21 2026 tampa fl	Yes	SELL	50	3¢	$2	0xa93b2e…
08-21 17:17:52	which cities face tornado risk on august 21 2026 birmingham al	Yes	BUY	50	5¢	$2	0x9c09bd…
08-21 17:17:21	which cities face tornado risk on august 21 2026 fort worth tx	Yes	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0x39a63d…
08-21 17:16:10	which cities face tornado risk on august 21 2026 tampa fl	Yes	BUY	50	5¢	$2	0x4936bf…
08-21 17:14:10	which cities face tornado risk on august 21 2026 austin tx	Yes	SELL	29	3¢	$1	0x26f66a…
08-21 17:14:09	which cities face tornado risk on august 21 2026 st louis mo	Yes	SELL	30	5¢	$2	0x3fca7a…
08-21 17:13:48	which cities face tornado risk on august 21 2026 birmingham al	Yes	SELL	50	5¢	$2	0xcf0bff…
08-21 17:11:48	which cities face tornado risk on august 21 2026 austin tx	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0x5afbf9…
08-21 17:11:46	which cities face tornado risk on august 21 2026 austin tx	Yes	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0xdcea9c…
08-21 17:11:06	which cities face tornado risk on august 21 2026 austin tx	Yes	SELL	40	4¢	$2	0xf075bb…
08-21 17:11:04	which cities face tornado risk on august 21 2026 fort worth tx	Yes	SELL	40	3¢	$1	0xd9be4f…
08-21 17:10:51	which cities face tornado risk on august 21 2026 tampa fl	Yes	SELL	50	5¢	$2	0x902b73…
08-21 17:10:49	which cities face tornado risk on august 21 2026 st louis mo	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x7d32cd…
08-21 17:10:42	which cities face tornado risk on august 21 2026 st louis mo	Yes	BUY	10	5¢	$0	0xe49fb2…
08-21 17:10:00	which cities face tornado risk on august 21 2026 birmingham al	Yes	BUY	50	5¢	$2	0xbf050d…
08-21 17:08:48	which cities face tornado risk on august 21 2026 austin tx	Yes	BUY	40	5¢	$2	0xd35edd…
08-21 17:07:52	which cities face tornado risk on august 21 2026 tampa fl	Yes	BUY	50	5¢	$2	0x67efe2…
08-21 17:06:06	which cities face tornado risk on august 21 2026 austin tx	Yes	SELL	40	5¢	$2	0xfa38e7…
08-21 17:05:24	which cities face tornado risk on august 21 2026 fort worth tx	Yes	BUY	40	5¢	$2	0x2b202d…
08-21 17:02:06	which cities face tornado risk on august 21 2026 austin tx	Yes	BUY	40	5¢	$2	0x6ab112…
08-21 16:27:21	will russia target kyiv by august 22 2026	No	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0xa953bb…
08-21 16:27:13	will elon post tesla on x this week 20260823	No	SELL	43	1¢	$0	0xde34b8…
08-21 16:21:36	will russia target kyiv by august 22 2026	No	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0x10e3b7…
08-21 16:21:28	will elon post tesla on x this week 20260823	No	SELL	6	1¢	$0	0x5b4844…
08-21 12:08:52	Will Dave Bronson advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?	No	SELL	40	4¢	$2	0x2f1fb8…
08-21 12:05:49	Will Dave Bronson advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?	No	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0x5d484b…
08-21 12:05:48	Will Dave Bronson advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?	No	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0x174d72…
08-21 12:05:45	Will Dave Bronson advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?	No	SELL	50	4¢	$2	0xef4bc1…
08-21 12:04:12	Will Dave Bronson advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?	No	BUY	50	5¢	$2	0xd2820b…
08-21 10:08:45	Will Dave Bronson advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?	No	SELL	50	4¢	$2	0x91b7eb…
08-21 10:05:24	Will Dave Bronson advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?	No	BUY	50	5¢	$2	0x592e87…
08-21 10:00:03	will elon post tesla on x this week 20260823	No	BUY	36	4¢	$1	0xbe49a7…
08-21 09:59:40	will elon post tesla on x this week 20260823	No	BUY	14	4¢	$1	0x5956d3…
08-21 08:29:42	wti closes above 89 on august 21 2026	Yes	SELL	30	2¢	$1	0xada23c…
08-21 08:26:09	wti closes above 89 on august 21 2026	Yes	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0x53f640…
08-21 08:25:00	wti closes above 89 on august 21 2026	Yes	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0x0eb1af…
08-21 08:23:07	wti closes above 85 on august 21 2026	Yes	SELL	30	81¢	$24	0x8b3538…
08-21 08:23:07	wti closes above 85 on august 21 2026	Yes	SELL	20	81¢	$16	0x61c89a…
08-21 08:19:46	wti closes above 85 on august 21 2026	Yes	BUY	50	85¢	$42	0xee9d58…
08-21 07:08:07	wti closes above 89 on august 21 2026	Yes	SELL	50	4¢	$2	0xf87419…
08-21 07:04:45	wti closes above 89 on august 21 2026	Yes	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0x10422a…
08-21 06:59:39	spy closes above 780 on august 21 2026	Yes	SELL	20	0¢	$0	0x28d905…
08-21 06:53:48	will mrbeast say prize during his next youtube video 20260818	Yes	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0xa17593…
08-21 06:50:34	will mrbeast say prize during his next youtube video 20260818	Yes	SELL	30	3¢	$1	0xc8b2b1…
08-21 06:46:45	will mrbeast say prize during his next youtube video 20260818	Yes	BUY	50	7¢	$4	0x586204…
08-21 06:32:45	Will Click Bishop advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	11	3¢	$0	0x0c3922…
08-21 06:29:40	Will Click Bishop advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?	Yes	BUY	11	4¢	$0	0x08c985…
08-21 06:26:37	spy closes above 780 on august 21 2026	Yes	SELL	15	0¢	$0	0xf0ff55…
08-21 06:23:25	spy closes above 785 on august 21 2026	Yes	SELL	50	0¢	$0	0x50e1c3…
08-21 06:23:18	spy closes above 780 on august 21 2026	Yes	SELL	15	1¢	$0	0xb892f7…
08-21 06:21:25	spy closes above 785 on august 21 2026	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xbcee3d…
08-21 06:21:01	spy closes above 780 on august 21 2026	Yes	BUY	50	3¢	$1	0xce096e…
08-21 05:59:18	will kai and speed beat the gauntlet within 24 hours	No	SELL	50	0¢	$0	0xe92078…
08-21 05:57:39	will kai and speed beat the gauntlet within 24 hours	No	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x70d387…
08-21 05:50:46	will kai and speed beat the gauntlet within 14 hours	Yes	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x1897c9…
08-21 05:50:34	will kai and speed beat the gauntlet within 14 hours	No	SELL	50	0¢	$0	0x595ef2…
08-21 05:50:27	will kai and speed beat the gauntlet within 18 hours	Yes	SELL	50	98¢	$49	0xf880ba…
08-21 05:50:18	will kai and speed beat the gauntlet within 24 hours	No	SELL	50	0¢	$0	0xcbb449…
08-21 05:47:51	will kai and speed beat the gauntlet within 14 hours	No	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x7a6a18…
08-21 05:46:13	will kai and speed beat the gauntlet within 14 hours	Yes	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x26d14a…
08-21 05:46:03	will kai and speed beat the gauntlet within 24 hours	No	BUY	50	1¢	$0	0xc53daa…
08-21 05:44:51	will kai and speed beat the gauntlet within 20 hours	No	SELL	40	1¢	$0	0x974ebd…
08-21 05:44:46	will kai and speed beat the gauntlet within 14 hours	Yes	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0x96f192…
08-21 05:44:46	will kai and speed beat the gauntlet within 14 hours	Yes	SELL	39	91¢	$36	0x021d25…
08-21 05:44:43	will kai and speed beat the gauntlet within 14 hours	Yes	SELL	10	91¢	$9	0x1f0efe…
08-21 05:41:13	will kai and speed beat the gauntlet within 18 hours	Yes	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x3fd0c7…
08-21 05:40:43	will kai and speed beat the gauntlet within 14 hours	Yes	BUY	18	96¢	$17	0x6a4d66…
08-21 05:40:43	will kai and speed beat the gauntlet within 14 hours	Yes	BUY	26	96¢	$25	0x4958c4…
08-21 05:40:43	will kai and speed beat the gauntlet within 14 hours	Yes	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0x21ca25…
08-21 05:40:39	will kai and speed beat the gauntlet within 20 hours	No	BUY	40	1¢	$0	0xf5063e…
08-21 05:29:06	will bitcoin hit 150k by march 31 2027	No	SELL	50	87¢	$44	0x67ef4f…
08-21 05:25:58	will bitcoin hit 150k by march 31 2027	No	BUY	50	93¢	$46	0x2339b8…
08-21 04:44:03	will the earnings call not air 20260826	Yes	SELL	50	1¢	$0	0xc7e988…
08-21 04:41:58	will the earnings call not air 20260826	Yes	BUY	50	3¢	$2	0x0f869f…
08-21 04:29:10	will kai and speed beat the gauntlet within 10 hours	No	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0xd97204…
08-21 04:25:15	will kai and speed beat the gauntlet within 10 hours	No	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0x9b51b5…
08-21 04:23:09	will kai and speed beat the gauntlet within 10 hours	No	SELL	50	94¢	$47	0x29aba4…
08-21 04:21:33	will kai and speed beat the gauntlet within 10 hours	No	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0x07bc13…
08-21 04:20:43	will nvidia say ai 20 times during earnings call	No	SELL	16	2¢	$0	0x5fb6ed…
08-21 04:20:30	will kai and speed beat the gauntlet within 10 hours	Yes	SELL	50	2¢	$1	0xdf61d1…
08-21 04:17:15	will nvidia say ai 20 times during earnings call	No	SELL	33	3¢	$1	0x434624…
08-21 04:16:40	will kai and speed beat the gauntlet within 10 hours	Yes	BUY	50	4¢	$2	0xa4e398…
08-21 04:14:12	will kai and speed beat the gauntlet within 10 hours	No	SELL	50	87¢	$43	0x9a9a03…