Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$493

Unrealized P&L

+$29

Hit rate

77.1%

Resolved

Trades

856

lifetime

Volume

$15.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$18

Open exposure

$737

18 positions

First seen

2026-09-20

last 10-27 07:57

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 20 days

Categories

Other

96% 41% +$289

Tech

3% 67% +$124

Sports

1% 50% +$36

Politics

0% 25% +$44

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

38 active days in 12wk • peak 69 trades/day

Open positions (18) Resolved markets (5) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?	No	+200	$107	88¢	$175	+$68	10-14 13:54
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?	No	+150	$115	96¢	$145	+$30	10-08 10:41
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	No	+157	$129	82¢	$130	+$0	10-26 12:29
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% before 2027?	No	+118	$41	50¢	$59	+$17	10-18 12:01
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	No	+77	$55	68¢	$53	-$3	10-26 13:06
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	No	+50	$32	72¢	$36	+$4	10-22 13:44
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% before 2027?	Yes	+59	$52	50¢	$30	-$23	09-24 12:25
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+100	$36	26¢	$26	-$9	10-18 14:33
Will more than 8 tropical cyclones make landfall in China during 2026?	Yes	+100	$23	17¢	$17	-$6	10-05 11:30
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	Yes	+80	$14	18¢	$14	+$0	10-26 12:06
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	Yes	+50	$17	28¢	$14	-$3	10-22 12:53
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?	Yes	+100	$11	12¢	$12	+$2	10-06 12:41
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	+200	$12	6¢	$11	-$1	10-05 06:33
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?	Yes	+150	$26	4¢	$5	-$21	09-29 09:05
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?	Yes	+200	$9	2¢	$5	-$4	10-19 21:17
Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting?	No	+100	$10	2¢	$2	-$8	10-08 11:35
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31?	Yes	+100	$6	2¢	$2	-$4	09-27 10:01
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	+100	$11	1¢	$1	-$10	10-08 11:32

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 56.0 and 56.9 in October?	2	$530	580	20	+560	open	—	10-07 10:39
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 52.0 and 52.9 in October?	3	$523	361	205	+156	open	—	10-20 17:27
Will Character Select Agency Win the 2026 Esports Supporting Service of the Year Award?	16	$513	271	271	+0	open	—	10-07 08:36
Will “Pinky Up” by Katseye win Best Choreography at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?	13	$463	251	251	+0	No	+$32	09-28 02:37
Will “Nobody's Girl” by Tate McRae win Best Choreography at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?	11	$348	195	195	+0	No	+$36	09-28 02:36
Will the median home value in Austin Metro be at least $446,000 on December 31?	7	$313	188	149	+39	open	—	10-17 04:51
Will ISM Services PMI be at least 59.0 in October?	8	$307	387	50	+337	open	—	10-19 11:25
Will the median home value in Austin Metro be between $427,000 and $437,000 on December 31?	6	$304	165	165	+0	open	—	10-15 19:31
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.42% in September?	5	$291	150	150	+0	Yes	+$6	09-24 19:50
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.73% in October?	2	$282	286	0	+286	open	—	10-26 12:14
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in October?	23	$275	726	130	+596	open	—	10-20 13:11
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.80% before 2027?	6	$264	354	0	+354	open	—	10-26 12:12
Will Glean's valuation hit (HIGH) $8B by December 31?	3	$240	390	0	+390	open	—	10-05 18:41
Will NextEra Energy (NEE) Q3 operating revenue be above $9B?	4	$225	363	0	+363	No	+$58	10-21 11:34
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.50 and $2.75 on October 31, 2026?	6	$224	400	0	+400	open	—	10-25 08:36
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?	6	$208	400	100	+300	open	—	10-14 13:54
Will “Confessions II – The Film” by Madonna win Best Dance at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?	7	$205	402	100	+302	Yes	+$159	09-25 13:45
Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.95% in October?	9	$195	285	80	+205	open	—	10-26 12:16
Will ISM Services PMI be between 57.0 and 57.9 in October?	1	$186	221	0	+221	open	—	10-07 10:24
Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 5.00% in October?	9	$182	304	12	+291	open	—	10-26 12:16
Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be less than $303,000 on December 31?	1	$179	200	0	+200	open	—	10-09 16:58
Will STRC hit $100 by October 31?	2	$174	159	159	+0	open	—	10-18 10:05
Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $303,000 and $308,000 on December 31?	1	$172	200	0	+200	open	—	10-09 16:58
Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 5.20% before 2027?	4	$171	200	0	+200	open	—	10-08 10:03
Will Alibaba be the third-best AI lab at the end of November 2026?	1	$162	200	0	+200	open	—	10-12 14:24
Will Corning (GLW) Q3 Optical Communications sales be above $2.4B?	4	$156	191	0	+191	open	—	10-15 10:49
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 6.00% in October?	1	$145	147	0	+147	open	—	10-26 12:13
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	6	$143	237	0	+237	open	—	10-26 12:29
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?	2	$142	300	0	+300	open	—	10-08 10:41
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.70% in October?	2	$139	141	0	+141	open	—	10-26 12:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 07:57:47	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.50% before 2027?	No	BUY	77	36¢	$28	0x0f3b5b…
10-27 02:31:39	Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.50 and $6.00 on December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xd5e340…
10-27 02:31:39	Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.50 and $6.00 on December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	1¢	$0	0x12da7a…
10-26 20:34:41	Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.50 and $6.00 on December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	62	1¢	$1	0x4b8692…
10-26 20:29:03	Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.50 and $6.00 on December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x54a7a5…
10-26 20:29:03	Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.50 and $6.00 on December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x1b36d9…
10-26 19:32:30	Will the median home value in Denver Metro be between $468,000 and $473,000 on December 31?	Yes	BUY	6	10¢	$1	0xcf2d3f…
10-26 19:32:29	Will the median home value in Denver Metro be less than $458,000 on December 31?	Yes	BUY	0	10¢	$0	0x56c7b7…
10-26 19:21:29	Will the Central Bank of Chile increase the monetary policy rate by 25 bps at the October meeting?	Yes	BUY	54	1¢	$0	0x8d8a79…
10-26 18:37:06	Will the Central Bank of Chile increase the monetary policy rate by 25 bps at the October meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0x689cbc…
10-26 15:59:14	Will the Central Bank of Chile increase the monetary policy rate by 25 bps at the October meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0xb7e27f…
10-26 14:46:38	Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.15% before 2027?	No	BUY	100	58¢	$58	0xef8e81…
10-26 14:36:59	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?	No	BUY	60	98¢	$59	0xe06ddd…
10-26 13:06:27	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	No	BUY	77	72¢	$55	0xf79f1b…
10-26 12:29:21	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	No	BUY	77	83¢	$64	0x9beb7d…
10-26 12:18:29	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.08% in October?	No	BUY	40	95¢	$38	0x1cfb93…
10-26 12:18:21	Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.08% in October?	No	BUY	80	94¢	$76	0x166f78…
10-26 12:16:50	Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.95% in October?	No	BUY	115	95¢	$109	0xd225dc…
10-26 12:16:41	Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 5.00% in October?	No	BUY	40	96¢	$38	0xb4989d…
10-26 12:14:29	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.70% in October?	No	BUY	40	99¢	$40	0xc38336…
10-26 12:14:20	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.73% in October?	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0xb6d28c…
10-26 12:14:11	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.73% in October?	No	BUY	280	99¢	$276	0x163a94…
10-26 12:14:05	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.70% in October?	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x7004da…
10-26 12:13:20	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.85% in October?	No	BUY	24	99¢	$24	0x120598…
10-26 12:13:03	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 6.00% in October?	No	BUY	147	99¢	$145	0x31127d…
10-26 12:12:48	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.80% before 2027?	No	BUY	27	86¢	$23	0xf78f30…
10-26 12:06:03	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	80	17¢	$14	0xcb42a9…
10-26 12:03:14	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.80% before 2027?	No	BUY	50	85¢	$42	0x57f118…
10-26 12:02:50	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.80% before 2027?	No	BUY	77	87¢	$67	0x997fe4…
10-26 12:00:20	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.60% before 2027?	No	BUY	77	55¢	$42	0xa056f0…
10-26 07:08:29	Will George Russell win the 2026 Action of the Year?	Yes	BUY	6	1¢	$0	0x72d8fe…
10-26 01:54:00	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xbb8474…
10-26 01:54:00	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?	Yes	BUY	11	1¢	$0	0x928264…
10-25 23:06:48	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0xf2fb9c…
10-25 23:06:48	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?	Yes	BUY	30	1¢	$0	0xcce200…
10-25 23:06:48	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the December meeting?	Yes	BUY	11	1¢	$0	0x142606…
10-25 13:21:27	Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	58¢	$11	0x1806d3…
10-25 08:36:32	Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.50 and $2.75 on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	93	85¢	$79	0x261a1f…
10-24 21:15:36	Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.25 and $2.50 on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	28	97¢	$27	0x973cac…
10-24 19:03:15	Will The Debut win Best Original Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	5	17¢	$1	0xfb6339…
10-24 17:55:15	Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.25 and $2.50 on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	30	97¢	$30	0x89a8ce…
10-24 17:45:09	Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.50 and $2.75 on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0x7044bd…
10-24 16:33:50	Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	26¢	$8	0x1917d1…
10-24 14:48:38	Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $13.5B by December 31?	No	BUY	60	77¢	$46	0x516674…
10-24 10:31:14	Will the Ornn H100 Index be at least $4.00 on December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	60	83¢	$50	0xe925ac…
10-24 10:28:39	Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.75 and $3.00 on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	80¢	$80	0x7df6a9…
10-24 10:28:20	Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.50 and $2.75 on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0xdf74e7…
10-24 10:28:20	Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.25 and $2.50 on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	97¢	$6	0x41224b…
10-24 10:28:11	Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.50 and $2.75 on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	89	85¢	$76	0xd7e414…
10-24 10:28:11	Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.25 and $2.50 on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	35	97¢	$34	0x805ac7…
10-24 10:27:44	Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.50 and $2.75 on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0x2c7069…
10-23 22:56:15	Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $308,000 and $313,000 on December 31?	Yes	BUY	15	3¢	$0	0xaf8e8d…
10-23 22:56:15	Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $308,000 and $313,000 on December 31?	Yes	BUY	14	3¢	$0	0x51017c…
10-23 21:05:51	Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.25 and $2.50 on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0xe3cf0a…
10-23 21:05:51	Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.25 and $2.50 on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	2¢	$0	0xd16d43…
10-23 21:05:51	Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.25 and $2.50 on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0xc075fe…
10-23 21:05:51	Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.25 and $2.50 on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	1¢	$1	0x92ae95…
10-23 19:08:27	Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.50 and $6.00 on December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xedfb6a…
10-23 19:07:48	Will the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 6.50% (LOW) by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	30¢	$9	0x38f3b4…
10-23 16:33:00	Will the median home value in Miami be between $788,000 and $809,000 on December 31?	Yes	BUY	4	14¢	$1	0x87e09e…
10-23 16:32:59	Will the median home value in Miami be between $788,000 and $809,000 on December 31?	Yes	BUY	14	14¢	$2	0xfbb16d…
10-23 16:19:20	Will the median home value in Miami be between $788,000 and $809,000 on December 31?	Yes	BUY	13	14¢	$2	0x2f7e78…
10-23 15:46:24	Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x181840…
10-23 15:35:33	Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	58¢	$7	0xc8698f…
10-23 11:37:03	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.65% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	63¢	$63	0xbbc87a…
10-23 11:35:12	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.70% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	125	69¢	$86	0x112eb0…
10-23 10:20:09	Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.05% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	36¢	$36	0xbb127d…
10-23 10:16:44	Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.20% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	80	60¢	$48	0x962ec5…
10-23 10:10:05	Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.25% before 2027?	No	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0xece008…
10-23 10:04:47	Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.86% in October?	No	BUY	17	94¢	$16	0x834256…
10-23 10:04:42	Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.86% in October?	No	BUY	89	93¢	$83	0xca3ab0…
10-23 10:04:02	Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 5.00% in October?	No	BUY	49	97¢	$48	0x65603e…
10-23 10:03:48	Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.95% in October?	No	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0x7fcfff…
10-23 10:02:54	Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.92% in October?	Yes	SELL	80	4¢	$4	0x80b62f…
10-23 10:02:11	Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 5.00% in October?	Yes	SELL	12	4¢	$0	0x0c73a6…
10-23 10:02:02	Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.95% in October?	Yes	SELL	80	5¢	$4	0x9fa7a9…
10-23 03:12:44	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	No	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0xed21a9…
10-22 19:22:02	Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $12.5B by December 31?	No	BUY	60	52¢	$31	0xd98da9…
10-22 16:58:20	Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.67% in October?	No	BUY	48	28¢	$13	0x002168…
10-22 14:33:03	Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.92% in October?	No	BUY	91	90¢	$82	0x5bf9d6…
10-22 14:32:20	Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.89% in October?	No	BUY	25	82¢	$20	0x72c91c…
10-22 14:28:06	Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 5.00% in October?	No	BUY	21	90¢	$19	0x596c6d…
10-22 14:08:54	Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 4.95% in October?	Yes	BUY	60	15¢	$9	0xbb0fd4…
10-22 14:08:30	Will the 2-year Treasury yield hit 5.00% in October?	Yes	BUY	14	10¢	$1	0x8837b1…
10-22 13:44:56	Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	No	SELL	0	65¢	$0	0x05c304…
10-22 12:53:45	Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	Yes	BUY	17	34¢	$6	0x0a272e…
10-22 12:53:39	Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	Yes	BUY	22	34¢	$7	0xee670b…
10-22 12:53:39	Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	Yes	BUY	11	34¢	$4	0x0a81db…
10-22 09:00:50	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	No	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0x15a0b5…
10-22 08:24:38	Will the median home value in Miami be between $767,000 and $788,000 on December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	9¢	$1	0xeb177f…
10-22 08:24:38	Will the median home value in Miami be between $767,000 and $788,000 on December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	9¢	$1	0x9835a4…
10-22 07:17:36	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	No	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0xd7d42b…
10-21 22:21:39	Will world GDP growth be 3.2% in 2026?	No	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0x8b35a1…
10-21 22:21:18	Will world GDP growth be 3.1% in 2026?	No	BUY	83	70¢	$58	0x17538e…
10-21 16:38:36	Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.50 and $6.00 on December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x32b5d3…
10-21 11:34:15	Will NextEra Energy (NEE) Q3 operating revenue be above $9B?	Yes	BUY	43	4¢	$2	0x2dfefd…
10-21 11:34:09	Will NextEra Energy (NEE) Q3 operating revenue be above $8.5B?	Yes	BUY	87	10¢	$9	0xa95a53…
10-21 11:34:05	Will NextEra Energy (NEE) Q3 operating revenue be above $8.5B?	Yes	BUY	3	10¢	$0	0xaef9c7…
10-21 11:33:32	Will NextEra Energy (NEE) Q3 operating revenue be above $9B?	Yes	BUY	17	4¢	$1	0x5b0481…
10-21 11:33:32	Will NextEra Energy (NEE) Q3 operating revenue be above $8B?	No	BUY	20	17¢	$3	0x47e8d7…