Realized P&L (7d)
-$145
Unrealized P&L
+$454
Hit rate
68.6%
Resolved (7d)
54
Trades (7d)
110
1,024 lifetime
Volume (7d)
$3.06K
$19.1K lifetime
Avg / trade
$19
Open exposure
$2.72K
30 positions
First seen
2026-09-20
last 11-05 16:37
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 29 days
Categories
Other
94% 40% +$75
Tech
4% 67% +$124
Sports
1% 50% +$36
Crypto
0% — —
Politics
0% 25% +$44
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
47 active days in 12wk • peak 69 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will SB Energy not IPO before January 2027? Yes +250 $186 92¢ $231 +$44 11-01 11:18
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.25% before 2027? No +250 $216 92¢ $230 +$14 11-05 10:53
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027? No +200 $107 95¢ $191 +$83 10-14 13:54
Will the lowest St. Louis river level be 1.00 to 2.99 ft by November 30? Yes +200 $41 91¢ $182 +$141 10-20 18:11
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.15% before 2027? No +208 $177 85¢ $177 +$0 11-05 10:53
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027? No +150 $115 96¢ $144 +$28 10-08 10:41
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? No +157 $129 90¢ $141 +$11 10-26 12:29
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by December 31, 2026? No +100 $87 93¢ $93 +$6 10-31 19:19
Will OpenAI be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of November 2026? No +146 $111 64¢ $93 -$18 10-16 04:11
Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.70% before 2027? No +100 $54 88¢ $88 +$34 10-15 19:05
Will La Bola Negra win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? No +100 $65 87¢ $87 +$22 10-08 10:29
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% before 2027? No +118 $41 72¢ $86 +$44 10-18 12:01
Will Hyperliquid dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? No +100 $87 81¢ $81 -$6 11-01 11:23
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? No +100 $75 80¢ $80 +$6 10-10 20:03
Will world GDP growth be 3.1% in 2026? No +100 $70 70¢ $70 $0 10-21 22:21
Will world GDP growth be 3.2% in 2026? No +100 $86 65¢ $65 -$21 10-21 22:21
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.20% before 2027? Yes — +80 $48 80¢ $64 +$16 10-23 10:16
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? No +77 $55 83¢ $64 +$8 10-26 13:06
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes +77 $65 78¢ $60 -$5 11-04 14:38
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $15B by December 31? No — +65 $59 92¢ $60 +$0 11-01 11:20
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the December meeting? No +60 $59 98¢ $59 +$0 10-26 14:36
Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.6% and 0.7%? Yes +100 $16 52¢ $52 +$37 10-05 11:46
Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $318,000 and $323,000 on December 31? Yes — +166 $42 30¢ $50 +$7 11-01 11:24
Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of November 2026? No — +50 $45 96¢ $48 +$3 10-14 17:13
Will Hyperliquid dip to $70 by December 31, 2026? No +100 $61 44¢ $44 -$17 11-05 13:06
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.45% before 2027? Yes — +100 $17 43¢ $42 +$25 09-29 11:33
Will Hyperliquid reach $110 by December 31, 2026? Yes +200 $80 18¢ $37 -$43 10-18 07:09
Will world GDP growth be 3.2% in 2026? Yes +100 $11 35¢ $35 +$24 10-01 20:44
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? Yes +100 $36 34¢ $33 -$2 10-18 14:33
Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026? Yes +34 $20 91¢ $31 +$12 10-15 23:40