Realized P&L
-$203.9K
Unrealized P&L
+$8.16K
Hit rate
45.6%
Resolved
35,409
Trades
304,855
lifetime
Volume
$4.59M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$15
Open exposure
$31.6K
30 positions
First seen
2026-06-19
last 10-28 07:59
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 131 days
Categories
Other
90% 41% -$181,897
Politics
6% 36% -$14,383
Tech
2% 32% -$4,006
Sports
1% 36% -$1,402
Crypto
0% 31% -$881
Pop-Culture
0% 12% -$1,289
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 4561 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of October 2026? Yes +2,252 $1,389 95¢ $2.1K +$757 09-18 01:51
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? No +2,721 $1,228 76¢ $2.1K +$854 09-16 04:07
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? Yes +2,088 $1,212 88¢ $1.8K +$615 10-26 10:43
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? No +1,632 $1,081 97¢ $1.6K +$500 10-20 15:11
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? No +1,808 $1,536 77¢ $1.4K -$151 10-01 16:11
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in October? No +1,307 $427 99¢ $1.3K +$869 10-08 03:56
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027? No +1,463 $915 88¢ $1.3K +$365 10-07 10:49
Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026? No +1,399 $909 92¢ $1.3K +$371 10-18 13:31
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? No +1,533 $842 82¢ $1.3K +$415 09-25 18:31
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? No +1,291 $887 96¢ $1.2K +$346 10-01 17:55
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond? No +1,871 $1,186 62¢ $1.2K -$31 10-26 00:06
France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026? No +1,046 $823 94¢ $978 +$155 10-20 01:20
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes +975 $793 96¢ $934 +$140 10-25 20:55
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026? No +983 $609 91¢ $895 +$286 10-13 19:07
France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026? No +900 $810 99¢ $891 +$81 10-19 18:16
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? No +899 $305 96¢ $868 +$562 09-21 22:10
Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026? Yes +926 $272 93¢ $861 +$589 10-26 11:27
Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin? Yes +1,010 $564 84¢ $843 +$279 09-11 16:10
Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? No +1,314 $629 64¢ $841 +$212 10-16 21:12
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026? Yes +818 $350 98¢ $800 +$450 09-30 22:47
viktor orban arrested by december 31 20260708001041551 No +914 $696 86¢ $789 +$93 10-23 23:33
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? No +1,019 $570 75¢ $765 +$194 09-25 09:23
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? No +1,227 $585 62¢ $761 +$176 09-25 20:45
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026? No +1,341 $813 55¢ $744 -$68 10-08 01:13
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? Yes +3,150 $1,852 24¢ $740 -$1,111 09-16 09:42
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? No +761 $192 92¢ $703 +$512 10-26 06:13
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement? No +897 $519 76¢ $685 +$166 10-20 01:47
Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026? Yes +1,028 $209 66¢ $683 +$475 10-26 12:14
next white house press secretary announced by october 31 2026 No +669 $544 97¢ $649 +$105 10-18 00:25
over 60m committed to the 1w public sale No +893 $676 70¢ $630 -$47 10-28 07:22