Realized P&L
-$2.84K
Unrealized P&L
+$809
Hit rate
8.3%
Resolved
2,642
Trades
46,076
lifetime
Volume
$354.9K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$8
Open exposure
$7.10K
30 positions
First seen
2026-04-30
last 10-31 14:12
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 84 days
Categories
Other
59% 15% -$2,171
Politics
30% 12% -$449
Sports
7% 10% -$77
Tech
3% 8% -$96
Pop-Culture
1% 9% -$20
Crypto
0% 13% -$28
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
75 active days in 12wk • peak 2249 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice? No +675 $515 92¢ $621 +$106 10-20 22:05
Kash Patel out by December 31? No +423 $332 82¢ $349 +$17 10-17 16:32
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? No +379 $349 92¢ $347 -$1 10-26 06:20
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31? No +341 $307 99¢ $336 +$29 10-17 12:19
Will "End of Beginning – Djo" be the top song for 2026? Yes +369 $292 82¢ $303 +$11 10-17 04:10
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No +385 $284 74¢ $283 -$1 10-18 00:52
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? No +282 $218 99¢ $279 +$61 10-08 13:47
Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026? No +446 $305 56¢ $250 -$55 10-27 10:52
Will "Babydoll — Dominic Fike" be the top song for 2026? No +285 $251 87¢ $249 -$2 10-14 21:26
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? No +398 $198 62¢ $249 +$51 09-26 02:28
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31? No +251 $222 96¢ $240 +$18 10-17 07:19
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026? No +240 $212 99¢ $237 +$26 10-18 03:02
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes +242 $222 91¢ $220 -$3 10-26 12:24
Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by June 30, 2027? Yes +283 $207 76¢ $217 +$10 10-26 23:18
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +206 $159 100¢ $205 +$46 08-24 16:48
will the us announce a diesel export ban by october 31 No +200 $143 100¢ $200 +$57 09-23 22:18
Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026? Yes +446 $156 44¢ $196 +$40 10-27 10:52
Will GitLab be acquired before 2027? No +210 $197 92¢ $193 -$4 10-24 03:28
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026? No +192 $115 99¢ $189 +$74 10-11 15:10
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? No +250 $138 74¢ $185 +$47 10-19 02:02
Will Drake be the top artist in the US for 2026? Yes +208 $175 88¢ $184 +$10 10-11 12:11
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No +202 $95 90¢ $181 +$86 08-26 08:18
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027? No +207 $163 87¢ $181 +$18 10-14 03:10
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +202 $133 88¢ $179 +$45 08-25 17:32
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31? No +206 $148 86¢ $178 +$30 08-25 22:19
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? No +181 $163 96¢ $173 +$10 10-11 15:08
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting? No +173 $120 99¢ $171 +$51 10-02 00:36
Will another city host the final of the 2030 FIFA World Cup? No +315 $184 54¢ $170 -$14 10-18 02:55
Blue wave in 2026? Yes +194 $158 88¢ $170 +$12 10-24 05:25
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026? No +180 $130 92¢ $165 +$35 10-06 19:45