Realized P&L
-$4.86K
Unrealized P&L
+$550
Hit rate
12.8%
Resolved
3,777
Trades
55,812
lifetime
Volume
$837.3K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$15
Open exposure
$21.9K
30 positions
First seen
2026-09-06
last 10-30 05:00
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 54 days
Categories
Other
63% 17% -$3,745
Politics
28% 14% -$613
Tech
5% 9% -$224
Sports
3% 16% -$126
Crypto
1% 9% -$131
Pop-Culture
1% 15% -$18
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
55 active days in 12wk • peak 2433 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes +1,559 $1,493 95¢ $1.5K -$17 10-29 13:17
Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? No +1,400 $1,196 82¢ $1.1K -$55 10-16 20:31
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No +1,050 $962 94¢ $987 +$25 10-29 02:08
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Anthropic +1,000 $952 98¢ $980 +$28 10-25 23:51
Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026? Yes +1,000 $694 96¢ $962 +$268 10-28 13:28
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027? No +1,000 $904 90¢ $895 -$9 10-26 14:55
Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028? No +1,197 $922 72¢ $856 -$66 10-24 05:31
Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? No +1,050 $868 78¢ $814 -$54 10-15 14:29
Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029? No +1,047 $825 76¢ $801 -$24 10-27 01:07
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)? Yes +950 $595 84¢ $796 +$200 10-28 01:07
Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028? No +1,210 $926 64¢ $769 -$157 10-21 07:49
Will Lorne Doerkson be the next Premier of British Columbia? Yes +770 $501 96¢ $738 +$237 10-20 11:44
Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026? No +705 $661 94¢ $662 +$1 10-28 03:29
Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028? No +808 $652 80¢ $646 -$6 10-24 06:31
Will the Democratic Party win the WA-05 House seat? No +749 $639 85¢ $634 -$5 10-29 17:49
Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026? No +820 $636 77¢ $632 -$5 10-27 13:07
Will the Republicans win the Iowa governor race in 2026? No +707 $622 87¢ $615 -$7 10-25 22:52
Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026? Yes +649 $583 92¢ $600 +$17 10-26 05:25
Will Cash Cat be the first to hit a $1B FDV? No +620 $600 97¢ $599 -$1 10-27 08:37
Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026? Yes +635 $597 94¢ $596 -$1 10-28 03:29
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? No +600 $576 98¢ $588 +$12 10-11 01:21
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028? No +832 $617 70¢ $587 -$31 10-29 17:16
Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026? Yes +674 $593 86¢ $583 -$9 10-25 13:45
Will Oura's market cap be at least $20B at market close on IPO day? No +598 $584 97¢ $580 -$3 10-23 14:33
Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? No +600 $582 97¢ $579 -$3 10-22 15:21
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31? No +587 $539 98¢ $576 +$37 10-23 14:27
Will Artificial Inu be the first to hit a $1B FDV? No +580 $544 98¢ $566 +$22 10-27 07:14
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting? Yes +796 $516 70¢ $561 +$45 10-26 22:35
Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate? Yes +800 $511 70¢ $556 +$45 10-18 20:39
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026? Yes +600 $488 92¢ $555 +$67 10-29 17:43