Realized P&L
-$9.42K
Unrealized P&L
+$1.23K
Hit rate
42.2%
Resolved
9,957
Trades
48,943
lifetime
Volume
$196.7K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$4
Open exposure
$4.05K
30 positions
First seen
2026-03-02
last 10-27 09:51
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 115 days
Categories
Other
71% 22% -$5,583
Politics
15% 20% -$2,224
Crypto
7% 5% -$1,515
Tech
5% 9% -$880
Pop-Culture
1% 7% -$84
Sports
0% 18% +$866
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
72 active days in 12wk • peak 1833 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)? Yes +609 $92 87¢ $531 +$439 10-03 04:32
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? No +555 $389 92¢ $509 +$120 10-24 08:05
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by less than 10%? Yes +331 $5 100¢ $330 +$325 10-22 23:04
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)? No +302 $104 100¢ $300 +$197 09-18 20:11
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? Yes +295 $190 91¢ $267 +$77 10-24 08:05
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 10%-20%? No +230 $112 100¢ $230 +$118 10-23 08:07
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? Yes +377 $135 56¢ $209 +$74 10-26 00:37
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in December 2026 (ET)? No +217 $185 91¢ $198 +$13 10-27 09:24
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026? No +203 $81 81¢ $165 +$84 09-28 07:56
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? No +1,352 $150 9¢ $127 -$23 10-27 06:44
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 20%-30%? No +120 $102 100¢ $120 +$18 10-22 21:05
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? Yes +376 $81 30¢ $111 +$30 10-25 22:45
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 30%-40%? No +100 $93 100¢ $100 +$7 10-20 21:41
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? Yes +228 $32 40¢ $90 +$58 10-25 21:50
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)? No +634 $438 13¢ $81 -$357 10-26 11:26
Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026? No +100 $67 72¢ $72 +$6 10-26 09:22
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31? No +79 $3 82¢ $64 +$62 10-16 00:36
Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028? Yes +200 $52 30¢ $59 +$7 10-13 19:22
Skin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by June 30, 2027? Yes +65 $55 76¢ $50 -$5 10-24 09:07
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026? Yes +591 $74 8¢ $48 -$25 10-26 21:42
Israel Election: Which Bloc Wins More Seats? Opp. +79 $45 60¢ $47 +$2 10-27 08:37
Trump renames New Mexico to New America by December 31, 2026? No +50 $45 91¢ $46 +$1 10-19 21:00
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? No +55 $44 80¢ $44 +$0 10-27 04:20
Will no next Israeli Minister of Justice be appointed by February 28, 2027? Yes +100 $41 41¢ $41 +$0 10-23 09:26
Will Pam Alexis win the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election? Yes +1,111 $88 4¢ $40 -$48 09-22 20:08
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026? Yes +50 $46 79¢ $40 -$7 10-05 01:54
Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad? Yes +897 $17 4¢ $35 +$17 10-10 03:25
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 29? Yes +40 $32 84¢ $34 +$2 10-25 21:03
will russia capture all of kostyantynivka by june 30 2027 No +75 $8 42¢ $32 +$24 10-03 16:14
will the 10 year treasury yield hit 5pt4 before 2027 No +42 $22 76¢ $32 +$10 09-28 07:32