Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$255

Unrealized P&L

+$3

Hit rate

72.4%

Resolved

2,569

Trades

12,424

lifetime

Volume

$18.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

10 positions

First seen

2026-06-02

last 10-26 23:41

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 141 days

Categories

Other

59% 49% +$36

Politics

30% 52% +$148

Tech

9% 53% +$78

Pop-Culture

1% 52% +$4

Sports

0% 30% -$6

Crypto

0% 20% -$5

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

83 active days in 12wk • peak 195 trades/day

Open positions (10) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+20	$1	10¢	$2	+$1	10-26 17:59
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	No	+16	$2	12¢	$2	+$0	10-26 13:20
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?	Yes	+6	$2	23¢	$1	$0	10-26 04:10
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	+28	$2	4¢	$1	$0	10-26 10:33
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)?	No	+8	$2	12¢	$1	-$1	10-26 13:05
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	+10	$0	8¢	$1	+$1	10-26 12:19
will lebanon recognize israel by december 31	No	+0	-$1	92¢	$0	+$2	06-27 23:55
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	+0	$0	88¢	$0	$0	06-16 18:17
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+0	-$1	24¢	$0	+$1	10-26 23:03
gta vi released before november 2026	Yes	+1	$1	0¢	$0	-$1	06-22 13:32

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	61	$107	205	198	+7	Yes	+$11	06-20 13:28
will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	35	$63	116	116	+0	open	—	08-13 15:16
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	37	$63	129	129	+0	No	+$5	07-07 23:36
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	33	$60	145	145	+0	Yes	+$9	06-20 00:02
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31?	20	$59	115	115	+0	Yes	+$11	06-17 14:54
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	34	$56	98	98	+0	Yes	+$6	06-27 13:30
saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	30	$50	91	91	-0	No	+$4	09-29 20:34
will jd vance attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204739	28	$49	94	94	+0	No	+$6	06-21 17:12
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?	23	$49	92	78	+14	Yes	+$12	06-17 20:26
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	27	$49	115	115	+0	No	+$3	07-12 11:28
Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?	30	$48	132	132	-0	Yes	+$8	08-07 18:34
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	26	$47	78	78	+0	No	+$5	06-19 04:05
will abbas araghchi attend the us iran signing ceremonywill abbas araghchi attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204723	27	$46	94	94	+0	No	+$4	06-23 16:18
trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 12 20260607232556274	19	$45	255	255	-0	No	-$11	06-11 02:21
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 18, 2026?	25	$45	142	123	+19	Yes	+$6	09-15 12:24
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?	21	$43	108	89	+19	Yes	+$5	06-17 17:04
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	25	$42	101	101	+0	No	+$4	07-01 23:08
Will the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,000?	29	$41	89	77	+12	No	+$3	09-09 18:15
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	20	$40	78	78	+0	No	+$5	07-04 14:08
kanye west performs in russia by october 31	20	$40	125	125	+0	open	—	09-25 12:33
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?	32	$39	71	65	+6	Yes	+$3	06-18 20:00
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	26	$38	67	64	+3	Yes	+$4	06-20 15:14
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-04 House seat?	22	$38	117	117	+0	open	—	10-18 16:27
Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get less than 20 million views on week 1?	22	$37	91	91	+0	No	+$4	09-03 16:36
Will "Little House on the Prairie: Season 1" be the top US Netflix show this week?	28	$37	132	132	+0	No	+$9	07-20 23:26
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	24	$37	76	65	+10	No	+$1	06-20 13:30
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?	21	$36	73	65	+9	No	+$2	06-16 18:13
trump declassifies new ufo files by july 15	18	$35	155	133	+22	Yes	+$6	07-10 11:16
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	20	$35	73	73	+0	open	—	10-22 21:02
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	22	$35	60	60	+0	open	—	10-21 22:13

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 23:41:05	Carles Puigdemont back in Spain in 2026?	No	BUY	8	22¢	$2	0x4ab2f9…
10-26 23:04:32	Will South Korea GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.4%?	No	BUY	21	7¢	$1	0xc94fa9…
10-26 23:03:48	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	22¢	$0	0x05f346…
10-26 23:01:08	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	22¢	$1	0x5259f1…
10-26 23:00:03	Will South Korea GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 3.5% and 3.9%?	Yes	BUY	6	14¢	$1	0x45593d…
10-26 23:00:03	Will South Korea GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 3.5% and 3.9%?	Yes	BUY	5	14¢	$1	0x4276a7…
10-26 22:55:38	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	22¢	$1	0xd6e95b…
10-26 22:43:53	Gemini Carbon released by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	7	24¢	$2	0xaa267c…
10-26 22:36:18	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the November meeting?	Yes	SELL	8	26¢	$2	0xc12437…
10-26 21:57:05	Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	17¢	$3	0x2cc0e1…
10-26 20:31:39	Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	No	BUY	6	29¢	$2	0x0b177f…
10-26 18:40:32	Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the November meeting?	No	SELL	7	31¢	$2	0x104bf0…
10-26 18:06:33	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	16¢	$2	0x8e7408…
10-26 17:59:06	France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x1a0065…
10-26 17:53:26	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3	4¢	$0	0x0cd00e…
10-26 17:53:12	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	4¢	$0	0x6ccf91…
10-26 17:53:08	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0x78b209…
10-26 17:52:54	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	12	4¢	$0	0x575054…
10-26 17:52:53	Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0xa1e24d…
10-26 17:28:14	Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	11¢	$2	0x55f3c7…
10-26 14:28:09	Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering?	No	BUY	11	11¢	$1	0x653948…
10-26 14:26:48	Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering?	No	SELL	14	17¢	$2	0xbdcf3f…
10-26 14:23:17	Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering?	No	BUY	14	11¢	$2	0xa7d291…
10-26 13:57:09	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Yes	SELL	13	18¢	$2	0xcfff52…
10-26 13:20:59	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	16	10¢	$2	0xad472b…
10-26 13:13:06	Will "Nobody Wants This: Season 3" be the top US Netflix show this week?	Yes	SELL	5	26¢	$1	0xa90899…
10-26 13:13:06	Will "Nobody Wants This: Season 3" be the top US Netflix show this week?	Yes	SELL	3	26¢	$1	0x9a078c…
10-26 13:12:54	Will "Nobody Wants This: Season 3" be the top US Netflix show this week?	Yes	BUY	8	20¢	$2	0x10fb5e…
10-26 13:12:29	Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering?	Yes	BUY	6	27¢	$2	0x8404fd…
10-26 13:05:20	Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)?	No	BUY	8	20¢	$2	0x7a0e20…
10-26 12:36:06	Will Meta’s market capitalization be between $1.75T and $2.00T at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	10¢	$0	0xc5214b…
10-26 12:31:33	Will Meta’s market capitalization be between $1.75T and $2.00T at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x99be48…
10-26 12:22:29	Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the November meeting?	No	BUY	7	25¢	$2	0x8f583f…
10-26 12:22:27	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the November meeting?	Yes	BUY	8	20¢	$2	0x4550bd…
10-26 12:19:57	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	17¢	$2	0x0a8416…
10-26 12:07:38	Will PVEM win the most seats in the 2027 Colima Congress election?	Yes	BUY	16	10¢	$2	0xd2c42e…
10-26 10:33:45	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	28	6¢	$2	0x93a397…
10-26 09:16:20	Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil by December 31?	No	SELL	16	16¢	$3	0x5bf796…
10-26 09:16:18	Will Lula announce the nomination of an individual for Minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil by December 31?	No	BUY	16	10¢	$2	0xd14134…
10-26 07:56:08	Will the total domestic gross for "You Can See Everything" be between $125M and $150M by November 30?	Yes	SELL	12	6¢	$1	0x30affc…
10-26 07:52:57	Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	No	SELL	14	17¢	$2	0xdaf963…
10-26 07:47:20	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in October?	No	SELL	11	21¢	$2	0x2384e5…
10-26 07:12:53	Will Don Toliver be featured on GTA VI: The Album?	No	BUY	10	18¢	$2	0x8f50f6…
10-26 06:04:15	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	24¢	$2	0x19ca53…
10-26 05:14:32	Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	No	BUY	14	11¢	$2	0x3b2350…
10-26 04:10:53	Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?	Yes	BUY	6	28¢	$2	0x2982ea…
10-26 04:04:17	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	Yes	SELL	8	28¢	$2	0x2aa5e4…
10-26 04:03:53	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in October?	No	BUY	11	15¢	$2	0x8e9e57…
10-26 03:28:03	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	Yes	BUY	8	22¢	$2	0x5da874…
10-26 03:20:03	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in October?	Yes	BUY	13	12¢	$2	0x6e5c28…
10-26 03:18:02	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	Yes	SELL	8	28¢	$2	0x435f7c…
10-26 03:14:09	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on October 27?	Yes	BUY	1	11¢	$0	0xd05c9c…
10-26 02:46:32	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	Yes	BUY	8	22¢	$2	0xc2dff0…
10-26 02:40:30	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	Yes	SELL	8	28¢	$2	0x9879c2…
10-25 23:53:42	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	Yes	BUY	8	22¢	$2	0xb78938…
10-25 23:45:02	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	Yes	SELL	4	27¢	$1	0x25a30e…
10-25 23:43:35	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	Yes	SELL	5	24¢	$1	0x6035b9…
10-25 23:23:56	Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	No	SELL	8	23¢	$2	0xfa2e21…
10-25 22:51:33	Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	No	BUY	8	17¢	$1	0x28d84c…
10-25 22:09:59	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?	Yes	BUY	8	22¢	$2	0x0235c6…
10-25 21:39:36	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	Yes	BUY	4	18¢	$1	0x5d4b14…
10-25 21:39:27	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	Yes	BUY	5	18¢	$1	0xd390d2…
10-25 21:36:50	Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	26¢	$2	0x290eab…
10-25 21:36:42	Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	20¢	$2	0x79a6f1…
10-25 21:28:08	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?	Yes	SELL	7	31¢	$2	0x189ad4…
10-25 21:25:05	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?	Yes	BUY	7	25¢	$2	0xa9c383…
10-25 21:14:47	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	Yes	SELL	4	24¢	$1	0xe27f6c…
10-25 21:14:38	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	Yes	SELL	5	24¢	$1	0x637c53…
10-25 20:52:57	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?	Yes	SELL	7	33¢	$2	0x251308…
10-25 20:46:15	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?	Yes	BUY	7	27¢	$2	0xf50ae1…
10-25 20:30:53	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	Yes	BUY	9	18¢	$2	0x6a1d30…
10-25 20:20:41	Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	28¢	$0	0x7157ea…
10-25 20:20:38	Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	28¢	$2	0x3822d7…
10-25 20:19:56	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?	Yes	SELL	7	32¢	$2	0xbfc450…
10-25 20:08:35	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?	Yes	BUY	7	26¢	$2	0x288128…
10-25 19:59:50	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	6	29¢	$2	0xe20ca7…
10-25 19:35:54	Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy by October 31?	Yes	SELL	3	22¢	$1	0xedc485…
10-25 19:31:26	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	22¢	$0	0x74b63f…
10-25 19:31:26	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x109b3d…
10-25 19:30:59	Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	22¢	$2	0xb7e2a1…
10-25 19:20:09	Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy by October 31?	Yes	SELL	7	22¢	$2	0x2ae328…
10-25 18:44:36	Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	6	33¢	$2	0x76e666…
10-25 18:29:56	Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	6	27¢	$2	0xe029df…
10-25 18:15:08	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on October 26?	Yes	SELL	0	22¢	$0	0x2197b8…
10-25 15:41:29	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?	No	SELL	0	21¢	$0	0x917118…
10-25 15:38:23	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?	No	BUY	11	15¢	$2	0xe544ee…
10-25 15:13:20	Will "BbY WOW - KAROL G, Judeline, rusowsky" be the #2 song this week?	No	SELL	21	1¢	$0	0x3b8a0c…
10-25 15:08:23	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 FL-17 House election by 10%-15%?	Yes	SELL	13	18¢	$2	0xe98344…
10-25 14:20:50	Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 30?	No	SELL	3	19¢	$0	0xa3b772…
10-25 14:20:50	Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 30?	No	SELL	10	19¢	$2	0x273969…
10-25 14:15:09	Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 30?	No	BUY	13	13¢	$2	0x19cd35…
10-25 14:12:53	Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by October 31?	Yes	SELL	14	18¢	$2	0x1ea502…
10-25 13:57:48	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 FL-17 House election by 10%-15%?	Yes	BUY	13	12¢	$2	0xc1aa16…
10-25 13:43:14	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on October 26?	Yes	SELL	10	22¢	$2	0xb0bc31…
10-25 13:38:29	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	SELL	8	28¢	$2	0x3048f2…
10-25 13:12:29	Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?	Yes	SELL	38	10¢	$4	0x05288a…
10-25 12:53:32	Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	4¢	$0	0x18e2b4…
10-25 12:53:30	Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels before November 1, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	4¢	$1	0xd16887…
10-25 11:08:39	Will Alison Jarman win the next Devonport mayoral election?	No	SELL	11	20¢	$2	0xed3d0f…
10-25 11:06:51	Will Alison Jarman win the next Devonport mayoral election?	No	BUY	11	14¢	$2	0x628f6a…