Boiling-Feel — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$43.4K

Unrealized P&L

-$301

Hit rate

84.2%

Resolved

769

Trades

12,765

lifetime

Volume

$1.81M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$142

Open exposure

$4.59K

8 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-31 13:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 155 days

Categories

Politics

43% 71% +$10,399

Other

33% 72% +$13,431

Tech

22% 71% +$16,799

Sports

2% 75% +$1,041

Crypto

1% 100% +$1,693

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

44 active days in 12wk • peak 112 trades/day

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31?	No	-2,560	-$2,380	98¢	$-2505	-$124	05-25 15:31
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	-1,800	-$1,670	98¢	$-1760	-$90	05-20 22:12
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	Yes	+176	$112	62¢	$109	-$3	10-30 11:20
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?	Yes	+252	$198	29¢	$74	-$124	09-30 21:19
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	Yes	+200	$48	21¢	$41	-$6	10-31 13:09
will the next google gemini pro model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500	No	+40	-$95	82¢	$33	+$128	07-01 00:13
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	+150	$29	22¢	$32	+$3	10-29 07:09
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?	Yes	+175	$116	18¢	$31	-$85	09-30 21:17

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	210	$61.9K	51,638	44,304	+7,334	No	+$722	06-14 21:04
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	117	$48.4K	28,778	28,778	+0	Yes	+$42	07-01 20:14
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	85	$31.2K	21,246	17,084	+4,162	No	-$1,012	05-14 16:33
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	41	$29.4K	19,127	11,147	+7,980	Yes	+$579	03-10 13:34
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	142	$29.3K	17,056	17,046	+10	Yes	+$558	05-25 23:08
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	128	$29.1K	29,293	27,293	+2,000	Yes	+$2,204	06-14 23:54
new stranger things episode released by january 31 294	59	$27.5K	13,045	15,065	-2,019	No	+$193	01-28 14:09
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	6	$25.5K	25,566	0	+25,566	No	+$102	04-30 20:36
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	133	$22.0K	13,292	14,865	-1,573	No	+$84	04-21 20:54
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?	92	$20.0K	13,086	8,867	+4,219	Yes	+$837	04-23 18:05
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	180	$19.8K	16,770	18,126	-1,356	No	+$26	05-25 21:35
russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	29	$19.4K	12,643	7,000	+5,643	No	+$200	01-31 16:18
us strikes iran by january 23 2026 494 711 798 734 155	146	$19.1K	14,078	14,337	-259	No	-$43	01-23 23:18
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	7	$18.8K	9,451	9,451	+0	No	+$104	04-01 04:03
gpt 5pt5 released by april 23 2026 377 628 858 953 367 983 595	81	$18.2K	14,096	6,156	+7,940	Yes	+$973	04-23 18:04
will alex honnold free solo taipei 101	86	$17.9K	8,277	10,852	-2,575	Yes	+$385	01-25 02:42
netanyahu out by march 31 854	16	$16.7K	11,200	6,000	+5,200	No	+$521	03-31 15:21
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	23	$16.6K	12,614	4,523	+8,092	No	+$248	02-22 14:32
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	108	$16.3K	17,791	17,791	+0	No	-$145	06-21 02:00
iran closes its airspace by june 15	123	$16.2K	12,415	12,415	+0	Yes	-$181	06-09 08:23
will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	124	$16.2K	10,910	8,317	+2,593	Yes	+$1,851	06-09 17:03
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	83	$15.6K	14,150	9,687	+4,463	Yes	-$124	06-22 00:24
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	47	$14.8K	7,793	7,793	+0	No	+$422	06-21 22:10
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	35	$13.5K	7,656	6,876	+781	Yes	+$331	04-21 03:04
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 21 2026	39	$13.2K	12,891	1,867	+11,024	No	+$253	04-21 20:37
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	48	$12.4K	6,800	6,800	+0	No	+$114	05-21 18:59
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	137	$11.8K	9,610	7,178	+2,432	No	+$640	05-25 06:04
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	70	$11.7K	10,106	10,106	+0	Yes	+$1,100	06-14 22:00
new stranger things episode released by wednesday	27	$11.4K	7,444	4,086	+3,358	No	+$92	01-07 21:00
will axiom be accused of insider trading	58	$10.6K	5,979	6,429	-450	Yes	+$659	02-25 17:40

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-31 13:09:24	Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	Yes	BUY	200	24¢	$48	0x785d7a…
10-30 11:20:54	Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	Yes	SELL	200	64¢	$128	0x22ac2d…
10-29 21:54:22	Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	Yes	SELL	126	64¢	$80	0x3d9959…
10-29 07:09:22	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	63	24¢	$15	0x2e94a8…
10-29 00:17:59	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	87	24¢	$21	0x803e28…
10-27 23:05:51	Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	62¢	$62	0x1016a0…
10-27 20:11:38	Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	Yes	BUY	402	64¢	$258	0x9803c5…
10-26 22:45:36	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	159	22¢	$35	0xf2f5de…
10-26 22:45:36	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	30	22¢	$7	0xebc99d…
10-26 22:45:36	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	11	22¢	$2	0x6700d3…
10-26 21:50:35	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	100	22¢	$22	0x59dc75…
09-30 21:58:21	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?	Yes	BUY	200	81¢	$162	0x42d582…
09-30 21:58:03	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?	Yes	BUY	126	83¢	$105	0x294989…
09-30 21:48:21	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?	Yes	BUY	5	83¢	$4	0xcfbea5…
09-30 21:43:47	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?	Yes	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x948547…
09-30 21:43:47	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?	Yes	BUY	232	83¢	$193	0x913886…
09-30 21:43:47	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?	Yes	BUY	5	83¢	$5	0x15340d…
09-30 21:30:05	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?	Yes	SELL	123	85¢	$105	0x269eae…
09-30 21:29:09	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510?	No	BUY	300	16¢	$47	0x0ed6bf…
09-30 21:23:20	Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	123	8¢	$10	0xb76796…
09-30 21:19:21	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?	Yes	BUY	58	79¢	$46	0x8de7ce…
09-30 21:18:14	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?	Yes	BUY	194	78¢	$152	0x6287b9…
09-30 21:17:32	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?	Yes	BUY	135	72¢	$97	0xfb828b…
09-30 21:17:06	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?	Yes	BUY	122	72¢	$87	0xf0c56d…
09-30 21:16:17	Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	371	6¢	$21	0xa918ef…
09-30 21:12:12	Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1530 by December 31?	Yes	BUY	69	96¢	$66	0x566fdf…
09-30 21:12:05	Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1530 by December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0x7dfd17…
09-30 21:11:57	Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1530 by December 31?	Yes	BUY	108	95¢	$102	0xe11b65…
09-30 21:10:17	Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31?	No	SELL	566	95¢	$538	0xc9042a…
09-30 19:57:02	Will claude-fable-5.1-max be the best AI model on October 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	289	13¢	$38	0xba8d33…
09-30 19:56:39	Will any other model be the best AI model on October 5, 2026?	No	BUY	22	13¢	$3	0x10b8d7…
09-30 19:56:09	Will claude-fable-5.1-max be the best AI model on October 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	6¢	$1	0x57bd23…
09-28 17:37:26	Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released on September 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	87¢	$261	0xe6d810…
09-26 14:47:18	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	90¢	$1	0xdd0358…
09-26 14:47:14	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	90¢	$3	0x23f9ea…
09-26 14:47:11	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	90¢	$12	0x6b4cc3…
09-26 14:47:06	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	90¢	$3	0x14e55e…
09-26 14:43:44	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	65	90¢	$59	0x278ae2…
09-24 05:27:33	Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	263	56¢	$147	0xd4d3c9…
09-24 04:53:14	Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	36	56¢	$20	0x535ed4…
09-24 01:37:46	Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	56¢	$0	0x2fa47f…
09-22 21:25:24	Will SpaceXAI be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	84	94¢	$79	0x093175…
09-22 21:25:03	Will SpaceXAI be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	114	95¢	$108	0x81b53e…
09-22 17:59:39	Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) released by September 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	250	98¢	$245	0x6d54e0…
09-22 17:57:10	Next OpenAI GPT Sol (5.7+) released by September 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0xfc3607…
09-22 16:28:39	Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?	Yes	SELL	625	100¢	$624	0x404f8f…
09-22 15:48:01	Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	300	80¢	$241	0x864f24…
09-22 15:48:01	Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	88¢	$3	0x24270e…
09-22 15:48:01	Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	165	82¢	$135	0x05aae0…
09-22 15:45:51	Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	125	87¢	$109	0x89f17f…
09-22 15:44:55	Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	690	97¢	$673	0x31cd91…
09-18 14:39:49	Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	14¢	$3	0xd1532d…
09-18 14:14:50	Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	14¢	$0	0x8f1db0…
09-18 12:17:57	Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	14¢	$2	0x808c68…
09-18 12:17:57	Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	14¢	$0	0x3b4952…
09-18 12:09:31	Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	14¢	$0	0x7e9fb3…
09-18 11:33:46	Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0xfa973c…
09-18 11:20:19	Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	14¢	$1	0x9cd29a…
09-18 11:16:36	Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	14¢	$3	0xfedb84…
09-18 09:17:10	Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	206	14¢	$29	0xa424ca…
09-17 19:04:09	Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by September 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	14¢	$1	0x2d2f53…
09-13 09:36:19	Will SpaceXAI be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	62	23¢	$14	0xaa27aa…
09-13 03:42:30	Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	61	4¢	$2	0x264c03…
09-12 17:07:49	Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	304	4¢	$11	0xa8ebde…
09-12 14:32:36	Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	80¢	$10	0x4a94c6…
09-12 14:32:34	Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	80¢	$20	0xf6dd9a…
09-10 20:55:57	Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	80¢	$19	0x951069…
09-10 09:19:13	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510?	No	BUY	15	60¢	$9	0x286d85…
09-07 16:24:22	Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	82	80¢	$65	0xccee15…
09-07 12:15:03	Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	80¢	$8	0x0acf63…
09-07 09:03:54	Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	21	80¢	$17	0x895dbd…
09-05 20:45:39	Will Anthropic be the second-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	587	64¢	$374	0xf4a929…
09-05 01:58:52	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510?	No	SELL	4	86¢	$3	0xb977a1…
09-04 19:24:10	Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 4, 2026?	Yes	SELL	125	99¢	$123	0x0ab099…
09-04 19:19:03	Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x8cf9e8…
09-04 19:19:01	Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0x400cf7…
09-04 19:19:01	Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	117	98¢	$114	0x2cbef7…
09-04 19:17:45	Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released between August 31 and September 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	66	99¢	$65	0xa45a84…
09-04 18:53:54	will openais astra model be released by september 9 2026	No	BUY	10	5¢	$1	0xf12493…
09-04 18:53:54	will openais astra model be released by september 9 2026	No	BUY	190	5¢	$10	0x5d7d31…
09-04 18:51:36	will openais astra model be released by september 15 2026 835 392 233 788	Yes	SELL	800	99¢	$792	0xa23eac…
09-04 18:14:28	will openais astra model be released by september 7 2026	Yes	BUY	500	50¢	$250	0x65be39…
09-04 17:47:33	will openais astra model be released by september 9 2026	Yes	SELL	347	90¢	$311	0xfeb715…
09-04 17:24:13	Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x19b45e…
09-04 17:16:34	Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31?	Yes	BUY	119	92¢	$110	0x698958…
09-04 17:16:34	Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31?	No	SELL	91	8¢	$7	0x698958…
09-04 17:03:25	will openais astra model be released by september 9 2026	Yes	SELL	10	90¢	$9	0x471212…
09-04 17:02:07	will openais astra model be released by september 9 2026	Yes	SELL	10	90¢	$9	0xfad05c…
09-04 17:02:07	will openais astra model be released by september 9 2026	Yes	SELL	7	90¢	$6	0xbe20df…
09-04 17:01:12	will openais astra model be released by september 9 2026	Yes	SELL	5	90¢	$4	0x53b2e9…
09-04 16:35:22	Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1530 by December 31?	No	BUY	106	61¢	$65	0x5d10a7…
09-04 16:34:48	Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?	No	BUY	70	81¢	$57	0x4b3984…
09-04 16:34:37	will any ai model reach a chatbot arena score of at least 1540 by december 31	No	SELL	126	81¢	$103	0x4864c3…
09-04 16:28:39	will openais astra model be released by september 9 2026	Yes	SELL	8	90¢	$8	0xe118a7…
09-04 16:27:46	will openais astra model be released by september 9 2026	Yes	SELL	13	90¢	$12	0xc5c2d2…
09-04 16:27:28	will openais astra model be released by september 9 2026	Yes	SELL	2	90¢	$2	0xbd4a5d…
09-04 16:27:12	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510?	No	SELL	35	86¢	$30	0x08c4b7…
09-04 16:26:07	will gpt 6 be released by october 31 2026	No	SELL	263	1¢	$2	0xe8f0f5…
09-04 16:25:18	will gpt 6 be released by september 15 2026	Yes	SELL	458	98¢	$449	0x7a03db…
09-04 16:23:25	will openais astra model be released by september 9 2026	Yes	SELL	16	90¢	$14	0x65a7a1…