Realized P&L
Unrealized P&L
+$138
Hit rate
Resolved
0
Trades
8,586
lifetime
Volume
$1.29M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$150
Open exposure
$21.8K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-29 15:16
Equity curve
Not enough resolved markets yet to plot a curve.
Categories
Politics
45%
Other
34%
Tech
18%
Crypto
1%
Sports
1%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
76 active days in 12wk • peak 329 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? No +4,549 $4,215 99¢ $4.5K +$307 06-28 02:06
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No +3,500 $3,240 100¢ $3.5K +$246 06-08 14:25
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? No -3,280 $-3,258 100¢ $-3267 $-9 06-26 04:49
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No -1,812 $-1,160 99¢ $-1802 $-642 06-08 17:44
Iran leadership change by June 30? No +1,644 $1,529 100¢ $1.6K +$111 06-11 17:46
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No +838 $807 100¢ $835 +$28 06-13 20:40
Will Baidu have a #1 AI model by June 30? No -777 $-769 100¢ $-774 $-5 06-10 03:33
Will any AI model reach 1570 Coding Arena Score by June 30, 2026? No +626 $615 99¢ $621 +$6 06-25 18:01
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026? No +592 $416 98¢ $584 +$168 06-11 02:55
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before September 30, 2026? Yes +541 $529 98¢ $528 $-1 06-20 21:18
Will Meta have a #1 AI model by June 30? No +500 $485 100¢ $498 +$14 05-29 06:57
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026? No +355 $291 100¢ $353 +$62 06-11 02:53
Will any AI model reach 1550 Coding Arena Score by June 30, 2026? No -354 $-162 98¢ $-348 $-185 06-10 01:04
Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? Yes +659 $253 46¢ $307 +$53 06-27 21:12
Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by June 30, 2026? No +289 $285 100¢ $288 +$2 06-25 18:03
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by June 30? No +283 $275 100¢ $283 +$7 06-09 14:45
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? No +275 $214 100¢ $274 +$61 06-21 11:47
Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026? No -228 $-237 100¢ $-227 +$10 06-10 07:53
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? No +248 $220 90¢ $224 +$4 06-08 16:55
Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? No +316 $120 70¢ $221 +$101 06-16 14:59
Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by June 30? No -167 $-165 100¢ $-166 $-1 06-10 03:32
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes +400 $228 38¢ $154 $-74 06-13 17:03
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026? No +154 $141 96¢ $148 +$7 06-23 16:17
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? No +129 $123 100¢ $129 +$6 06-05 13:57
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? Yes +203 $151 40¢ $82 $-69 06-23 16:40
Will Dreamcash launch a token by December 31, 2026? No +44 $39 89¢ $39 +$0 06-29 15:16
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes +1,867 $118 $10 $-108 06-13 03:43
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? No +6 $-56 99¢ $6 +$62 06-28 12:11
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes +558 $131 $3 $-128 06-21 02:00
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes +787 $-102 $3 +$105 06-21 07:02