Realized P&L
Unrealized P&L
-$19
Hit rate
Resolved
0
Trades
7,869
lifetime
Volume
$1.19M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$151
Open exposure
$19.7K
23 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-09 18:17
Equity curve
Not enough resolved markets yet to plot a curve.
Categories
Politics
43%
Other
36%
Tech
19%
Crypto
1%
Sports
1%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
73 active days in 12wk • peak 329 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? No +4,205 $3,881 94¢ $3.9K +$51 06-09 08:24
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No +3,500 $3,240 94¢ $3.3K +$32 06-08 14:25
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? No +2,521 $2,360 93¢ $2.3K $-20 06-08 11:48
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes +2,259 $2,175 99¢ $2.2K +$63 06-08 13:05
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No -1,812 $-1,160 90¢ $-1640 $-480 06-08 17:44
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? No -1,625 $-1,607 99¢ $-1608 $-1 06-09 17:49
Iran leadership change by June 30? No +1,344 $1,244 96¢ $1.3K +$41 06-07 19:48
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No +841 $809 96¢ $808 $-1 06-07 09:13
Will Meta have a #1 AI model by June 30? No +500 $485 98¢ $492 +$7 05-29 06:57
Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? No +955 $452 51¢ $487 +$35 06-09 18:59
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by June 30? No +283 $275 99¢ $281 +$5 06-09 14:45
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? No +248 $220 92¢ $227 +$6 06-08 16:55
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026? No +258 $173 84¢ $218 +$45 06-09 01:55
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Yes -179 $-246 100¢ $-179 +$67 06-09 08:23
Will Baidu have a #1 AI model by June 30? No -159 $-157 99¢ $-157 +$0 06-09 14:47
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? No +129 $123 98¢ $127 +$4 06-05 13:57
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? Yes +155 $129 81¢ $125 $-4 06-09 01:57
Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? Yes +145 $124 76¢ $110 $-14 05-30 13:57
Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026? No +95 $70 91¢ $87 +$16 06-09 20:10
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes +1,077 $26 $46 +$19 06-08 12:31
Will any AI model reach 1550 Coding Arena Score by June 30, 2026? No -308 $-145 12¢ $-37 +$108 06-06 19:49
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Yes -600 $-26 $-15 +$11 05-30 19:45
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? No +44 $11 $0 $-11 06-07 18:56