Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
open
Total volume
$3,327
$104 in 24h
Trades
160
Unique wallets
41
Liquidity
$3,571
Latest YES mid
14¢
Latest NO mid
86¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-06-02
last 07-02 19:44
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 9 | $81 | $10 | +$72 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 13 | $151 | $975 | $824 |
| 🐟 Fish | 9 | $63 | $664 | $601 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 10 | $94 | $20 | +$74 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏆 Top 5% | 4 | $36 | — | +$36 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 3 | $1 | $245 | $244 |
| Median | 1 | $12 | — | +$12 |
| Below median | 8 | $144 | $351 | $207 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 2 | — | $300 | $300 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 4 | $52 | $77 | $25 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 6 | $58 | $361 | $303 |
| unranked | 13 | $85 | $333 | $248 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spirited-Motorcar 0xe1b3…1426 | No | +430 | $361 | $361 | 1 | 07-01 06:07 |
| Silver-Meadow 0xa834…71ae | No | +369 | $300 | $300 | 1 | 06-03 11:06 |
| Jealous-Copywriter 0x226a…6411 | No | +289 | $245 | $245 | 2 | 07-02 18:09 |
| Reflecting-Pantology 0x4c4e…297b | No | +200 | $146 | $454 | 2 | 06-04 15:53 |
| (anonymous) 0xcd5c…626b | Yes | +124 | $20 | $20 | 1 | 06-28 18:43 |
| Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | Yes | +120 | $20 | $25 | 9 | 07-02 18:13 |
| Tangible-Fuel 0x6f67…102c | Yes | +89 | $12 | $15 | 5 | 07-02 18:09 |
| Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | +87 | $21 | $85 | 16 | 07-02 18:09 |
| Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | No | +83 | $70 | $70 | 7 | 07-01 11:23 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | +80 | $68 | $68 | 4 | 06-29 10:39 |
| (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | +69 | $10 | $22 | 8 | 07-02 18:09 |
| Immediate-Memo 0xe786…9d92 | Yes | +60 | $12 | $112 | 13 | 07-02 19:44 |
| Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | +50 | $15 | $96 | 18 | 07-02 19:44 |
| Calculating-Island 0x99f0…649f | No | +43 | $36 | $36 | 3 | 07-01 06:08 |
| Straight-Hunting 0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | +40 | $6 | $6 | 2 | 07-02 18:09 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +37 | $6 | $6 | 4 | 07-01 06:08 |
| (anonymous) 0x2cd0…f897 | Yes | +14 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-22 16:05 |
| Elegant-Polliwog 0x2287…de14 | No | +12 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 07-01 06:08 |
| (anonymous) 0xf685…1ddc | No | +11 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 07-01 06:07 |
| Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | +11 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 07-01 23:27 |
| (anonymous) 0x78d4…c133 | Yes | +10 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-21 21:12 |
| Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | +9 | $1 | $1 | 2 | 07-01 06:08 |
| Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | +8 | $2 | $2 | 2 | 06-03 11:44 |
| (anonymous) 0xfd5a…aa7a | No | +6 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 07-01 06:07 |
| Gaseous-Soybean 0xb2a3…79e0 | No | +5 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 07-01 06:07 |
| (anonymous) 0xd10a…b9cd | Yes | +5 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-01 06:07 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-02 19:44:43 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | SELL | 50 | 13¢ | $7 | 0xefb067… |
| 07-02 19:44:43 | Immediate-Memo 0xe786…9d92 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 13¢ | $7 | 0xefb067… |
| 07-02 18:13:59 | Pointless-Casket 0x081a…66d0 | Yes | SELL | 30 | 14¢ | $4 | 0x233b09… |
| 07-02 18:13:59 | Immediate-Memo 0xe786…9d92 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 13¢ | $1 | 0x233b09… |
| 07-02 18:13:59 | Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | Yes | BUY | 20 | 14¢ | $3 | 0x233b09… |
| 07-02 18:09:43 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | BUY | 7 | 14¢ | $1 | 0xfd9f75… |
| 07-02 18:09:43 | Pointless-Casket 0x081a…66d0 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 14¢ | $4 | 0xfd9f75… |
| 07-02 18:09:43 | Long-Term-Overhead 0xbd14…76b4 | Yes | SELL | 162 | 14¢ | $23 | 0xfd9f75… |
| 07-02 18:09:43 | Tangible-Fuel 0x6f67…102c | Yes | BUY | 89 | 14¢ | $12 | 0xfd9f75… |
| 07-02 18:09:35 | Jealous-Copywriter 0x226a…6411 | No | BUY | 89 | 85¢ | $75 | 0xb5b6ed… |
| 07-02 18:09:35 | Straight-Hunting 0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 15¢ | $3 | 0xb5b6ed… |
| 07-02 18:09:35 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | BUY | 49 | 15¢ | $7 | 0xb5b6ed… |
| 07-02 18:09:35 | Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | Yes | BUY | 20 | 15¢ | $3 | 0xb5b6ed… |
| 07-02 12:12:53 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 15¢ | $3 | 0xc22ff3… |
| 07-02 12:12:53 | Immediate-Memo 0xe786…9d92 | No | SELL | 19 | 85¢ | $16 | 0xc22ff3… |
| 07-02 12:12:53 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 15¢ | $0 | 0xc22ff3… |
| 07-02 12:12:53 | Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | Yes | BUY | 20 | 15¢ | $3 | 0xc22ff3… |
| 07-02 12:12:53 | Jealous-Copywriter 0x226a…6411 | No | BUY | 200 | 85¢ | $170 | 0xc22ff3… |
| 07-01 23:27:02 | Immediate-Memo 0xe786…9d92 | No | SELL | 11 | 85¢ | $10 | 0x55eeef… |
| 07-01 23:27:02 | Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | BUY | 11 | 85¢ | $10 | 0x55eeef… |
| 07-01 19:45:07 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | SELL | 6 | 16¢ | $1 | 0x0e279d… |
| 07-01 19:45:07 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | SELL | 13 | 16¢ | $2 | 0x0e279d… |
| 07-01 19:45:07 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | BUY | 19 | 16¢ | $3 | 0x0e279d… |
| 07-01 16:16:41 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | SELL | 18 | 16¢ | $3 | 0xf0e042… |
| 07-01 16:16:41 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | SELL | 32 | 16¢ | $5 | 0xf0e042… |
| 07-01 16:16:41 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 16¢ | $8 | 0xf0e042… |
| 07-01 11:52:52 | Immediate-Memo 0xe786…9d92 | No | SELL | 50 | 85¢ | $42 | 0xb008b9… |
| 07-01 11:52:52 | Querulous-Marble 0xf33e…0ab8 | Yes | SELL | 50 | 15¢ | $8 | 0xb008b9… |
| 07-01 11:23:58 | Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | No | BUY | 20 | 84¢ | $17 | 0x87bf07… |
| 07-01 11:23:58 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 16¢ | $3 | 0x87bf07… |
| 07-01 06:09:35 | Immediate-Memo 0xe786…9d92 | No | SELL | 10 | 85¢ | $8 | 0xe31801… |
| 07-01 06:09:35 | (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 15¢ | $1 | 0xe31801… |
| 07-01 06:08:53 | Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | Yes | BUY | 20 | 16¢ | $3 | 0x550611… |
| 07-01 06:08:53 | Mealy-Elbow 0x2a20…89d2 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 16¢ | $3 | 0x550611… |
| 07-01 06:08:04 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 9 | 16¢ | $1 | 0x056aa5… |
| 07-01 06:08:04 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 3 | 16¢ | $0 | 0x056aa5… |
| 07-01 06:08:04 | Elegant-Polliwog 0x2287…de14 | No | BUY | 12 | 84¢ | $10 | 0x056aa5… |
| 07-01 06:08:02 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | BUY | 14 | 16¢ | $2 | 0xd53a5e… |
| 07-01 06:08:02 | Calculating-Island 0x99f0…649f | No | BUY | 14 | 84¢ | $12 | 0x29ebe6… |
| 07-01 06:08:02 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 11 | 16¢ | $2 | 0x3dd00c… |
| 07-01 06:08:02 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | BUY | 3 | 16¢ | $1 | 0x3dd00c… |
| 07-01 06:08:02 | Calculating-Island 0x99f0…649f | No | BUY | 14 | 84¢ | $12 | 0x3dd00c… |
| 07-01 06:08:02 | Calculating-Island 0x99f0…649f | No | BUY | 14 | 84¢ | $12 | 0xd53a5e… |
| 07-01 06:08:02 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | BUY | 14 | 16¢ | $2 | 0x29ebe6… |
| 07-01 06:07:46 | Gaseous-Soybean 0xb2a3…79e0 | No | BUY | 5 | 84¢ | $4 | 0xd27daa… |
| 07-01 06:07:46 | (anonymous) 0xf685…1ddc | No | BUY | 11 | 84¢ | $10 | 0xbfb5bf… |
| 07-01 06:07:46 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 16¢ | $1 | 0xd27daa… |
| 07-01 06:07:46 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 11 | 16¢ | $2 | 0xbfb5bf… |
| 07-01 06:07:43 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | Yes | SELL | 20 | 16¢ | $3 | 0x350ef2… |
| 07-01 06:07:43 | Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | Yes | BUY | 14 | 16¢ | $2 | 0x350ef2… |
| 07-01 06:07:43 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 6 | 16¢ | $1 | 0x350ef2… |
| 07-01 06:07:38 | (anonymous) 0xfd5a…aa7a | No | BUY | 6 | 84¢ | $5 | 0x5aea3f… |
| 07-01 06:07:38 | Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | Yes | BUY | 6 | 16¢ | $1 | 0x5aea3f… |
| 07-01 06:07:37 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | Yes | BUY | 20 | 17¢ | $3 | 0x7924f5… |
| 07-01 06:07:37 | Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | Yes | BUY | 20 | 17¢ | $3 | 0x7924f5… |
| 07-01 06:07:37 | Mealy-Elbow 0x2a20…89d2 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 16¢ | $3 | 0x7924f5… |
| 07-01 06:07:37 | Querulous-Marble 0xf33e…0ab8 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 16¢ | $8 | 0x7924f5… |
| 07-01 06:07:37 | Immediate-Memo 0xe786…9d92 | No | SELL | 100 | 84¢ | $84 | 0x7924f5… |
| 07-01 06:07:37 | Spirited-Motorcar 0xe1b3…1426 | No | BUY | 430 | 84¢ | $361 | 0x7924f5… |
| 07-01 06:07:37 | (anonymous) 0xd10a…b9cd | Yes | BUY | 5 | 16¢ | $1 | 0x7924f5… |
| 07-01 06:07:37 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | BUY | 32 | 16¢ | $5 | 0x7924f5… |
| 07-01 06:07:37 | (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 17¢ | $2 | 0x7924f5… |
| 07-01 06:07:37 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | SELL | 12 | 83¢ | $10 | 0x7924f5… |
| 07-01 06:07:37 | Long-Term-Overhead 0xbd14…76b4 | Yes | BUY | 162 | 16¢ | $26 | 0x7924f5… |
| 06-29 10:39:14 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | BUY | 20 | 82¢ | $16 | 0x758364… |
| 06-29 10:39:14 | Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | No | BUY | 1 | 82¢ | $1 | 0x758364… |
| 06-29 10:39:14 | Immediate-Memo 0xe786…9d92 | No | BUY | 100 | 82¢ | $82 | 0x758364… |
| 06-29 10:39:14 | Sore-Pitching 0x564f…7026 | No | SELL | 121 | 82¢ | $100 | 0x758364… |
| 06-28 19:13:44 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | No | SELL | 20 | 83¢ | $17 | 0xcf1186… |
| 06-28 19:13:44 | Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | No | BUY | 20 | 83¢ | $17 | 0xcf1186… |
| 06-28 18:43:26 | (anonymous) 0xcd5c…626b | Yes | BUY | 124 | 16¢ | $20 | 0xe3b146… |
| 06-28 18:43:26 | Immediate-Memo 0xe786…9d92 | No | BUY | 19 | 83¢ | $16 | 0xe3b146… |
| 06-28 18:43:26 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | BUY | 20 | 84¢ | $17 | 0xe3b146… |
| 06-28 18:43:26 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | SELL | 25 | 16¢ | $4 | 0xe3b146… |
| 06-28 18:43:26 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | No | BUY | 20 | 84¢ | $17 | 0xe3b146… |
| 06-28 18:43:26 | Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | No | BUY | 20 | 84¢ | $17 | 0xe3b146… |
| 06-28 18:43:26 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 16¢ | $3 | 0xe3b146… |
| 06-24 03:22:20 | Immediate-Memo 0xe786…9d92 | No | BUY | 6 | 84¢ | $5 | 0x5065db… |
| 06-24 03:22:20 | (anonymous) 0xdf0e…c02b | No | SELL | 6 | 84¢ | $5 | 0x5065db… |
| 06-23 07:12:43 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 16¢ | $3 | 0xf09a0b… |
| 06-23 07:12:43 | Immediate-Memo 0xe786…9d92 | No | BUY | 20 | 84¢ | $17 | 0xf09a0b… |
| 06-23 06:54:20 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 16¢ | $4 | 0x5669b5… |
| 06-23 06:54:20 | Immediate-Memo 0xe786…9d92 | No | BUY | 25 | 84¢ | $21 | 0x5669b5… |
| 06-23 03:22:20 | Few-Apparel 0x09e6…24a1 | No | SELL | 169 | 85¢ | $144 | 0xe6dacf… |
| 06-23 03:22:20 | Immediate-Memo 0xe786…9d92 | No | BUY | 100 | 85¢ | $85 | 0xe6dacf… |
| 06-23 03:22:20 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | SELL | 25 | 14¢ | $4 | 0xe6dacf… |
| 06-23 03:22:20 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | SELL | 37 | 14¢ | $5 | 0xe6dacf… |
| 06-23 03:22:20 | (anonymous) 0xdf0e…c02b | No | BUY | 6 | 85¢ | $5 | 0xe6dacf… |
| 06-22 21:39:04 | Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | No | BUY | 1 | 86¢ | $1 | 0xd63cff… |
| 06-22 21:39:04 | Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse 0xe457…5ab3 | No | SELL | 1 | 86¢ | $1 | 0xd63cff… |
| 06-22 21:39:02 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | BUY | 21 | 14¢ | $3 | 0x5b037f… |
| 06-22 21:39:02 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 14¢ | $3 | 0x5b037f… |
| 06-22 21:39:02 | Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse 0xe457…5ab3 | No | BUY | 1 | 86¢ | $1 | 0x5b037f… |
| 06-22 16:21:55 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | SELL | 36 | 14¢ | $5 | 0xb3e290… |
| 06-22 16:21:55 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | BUY | 36 | 14¢ | $5 | 0xb3e290… |
| 06-22 16:05:37 | (anonymous) 0x2cd0…f897 | Yes | BUY | 14 | 14¢ | $2 | 0x10c3ff… |
| 06-22 16:05:37 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | SELL | 14 | 14¢ | $2 | 0x10c3ff… |
| 06-21 21:12:55 | Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | No | BUY | 4 | 86¢ | $4 | 0x5e44e5… |
| 06-21 21:12:55 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | SELL | 6 | 14¢ | $1 | 0x5e44e5… |
| 06-21 21:12:55 | (anonymous) 0x78d4…c133 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 14¢ | $1 | 0x5e44e5… |