Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
open
Total volume
$4,618
$104 in 24h
Trades
230
Unique wallets
52
Liquidity
$3,571
Latest YES mid
12¢
Latest NO mid
88¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-06-02
last 07-22 20:35
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 9 | $81 | $29 | +$52 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 16 | $188 | $1.4K | $1.2K |
| 🐟 Fish | 14 | $169 | $666 | $496 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 13 | $34 | $69 | $35 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏆 Top 5% | 4 | $52 | — | +$52 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 5 | $6 | $255 | $249 |
| Median | 2 | $15 | — | +$15 |
| Below median | 10 | $183 | $550 | $368 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 1 | — | — | +— |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 6 | $58 | $638 | $581 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 6 | $58 | $380 | $322 |
| unranked | 18 | $102 | $366 | $263 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spirited-Motorcar 0xe1b3…1426 | No | +430 | $361 | $361 | 1 | 07-01 06:07 |
| Silver-Meadow 0xa834…71ae | No | +369 | $300 | $300 | 1 | 06-03 11:06 |
| Productive-Brooch 0x34af…bd55 | No | +300 | $261 | $261 | 6 | 07-21 08:09 |
| Reflecting-Pantology 0x4c4e…297b | No | +200 | $146 | $454 | 2 | 06-04 15:53 |
| Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | Yes | +189 | $28 | $34 | 13 | 07-09 08:55 |
| (anonymous) 0xcd5c…626b | Yes | +124 | $20 | $20 | 1 | 06-28 18:43 |
| Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | No | +103 | $87 | $87 | 9 | 07-09 07:09 |
| Tangible-Fuel 0x6f67…102c | Yes | +89 | $12 | $15 | 5 | 07-02 18:09 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | +80 | $68 | $68 | 4 | 06-29 10:39 |
| Straight-Hunting 0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | +73 | $9 | $35 | 6 | 07-22 17:55 |
| Calculating-Island 0x99f0…649f | No | +43 | $36 | $36 | 3 | 07-01 06:08 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | +40 | $5 | $5 | 2 | 07-08 19:37 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +37 | $6 | $6 | 4 | 07-01 06:08 |
| Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | +28 | $14 | $135 | 26 | 07-22 20:35 |
| (anonymous) 0x2cd0…f897 | Yes | +14 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-22 16:05 |
| (anonymous) 0xf685…1ddc | No | +11 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 07-01 06:07 |
| Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | +11 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 07-01 23:27 |
| Polished-Ear 0x379f…8e3e | No | +11 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 07-08 08:06 |
| Polished-Hexagon 0x7478…4003 | No | +11 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 07-11 23:13 |
| (anonymous) 0xa3b4…88df | Yes | +10 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-21 08:09 |
| (anonymous) 0x78d4…c133 | Yes | +10 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-21 21:12 |
| Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | +9 | $1 | $1 | 2 | 07-01 06:08 |
| Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595 | Yes | +8 | $2 | $2 | 2 | 06-03 11:44 |
| (anonymous) 0x39d3…7c7c | Yes | +8 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-10 05:49 |
| (anonymous) 0xfd5a…aa7a | No | +6 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 07-01 06:07 |
| Gaseous-Soybean 0xb2a3…79e0 | No | +5 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 07-01 06:07 |
| (anonymous) 0x58e8…bb5a | Yes | +5 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-22 17:55 |
| (anonymous) 0x972f…ab22 | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-14 07:44 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-22 20:35:24 | Long-Term-Overhead 0xbd14…76b4 | No | SELL | 22 | 87¢ | $19 | 0x35c94f… |
| 07-22 20:35:24 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | SELL | 22 | 13¢ | $3 | 0x35c94f… |
| 07-22 17:55:46 | (anonymous) 0x58e8…bb5a | Yes | BUY | 5 | 12¢ | $1 | 0xc58fc6… |
| 07-22 17:55:46 | Straight-Hunting 0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | BUY | 15 | 12¢ | $2 | 0xc58fc6… |
| 07-22 17:55:46 | Serpentine-Merchant 0x3d70…e9b0 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 12¢ | $2 | 0xc58fc6… |
| 07-21 08:09:30 | (anonymous) 0xa3b4…88df | Yes | BUY | 10 | 13¢ | $1 | 0x935834… |
| 07-21 08:09:30 | Straight-Hunting 0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 13¢ | $1 | 0x935834… |
| 07-21 08:09:28 | Productive-Brooch 0x34af…bd55 | No | BUY | 29 | 87¢ | $25 | 0xb9b1f2… |
| 07-21 08:09:28 | Straight-Hunting 0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | SELL | 92 | 13¢ | $12 | 0xb9b1f2… |
| 07-21 08:09:28 | Sore-Pitching 0x564f…7026 | No | SELL | 121 | 87¢ | $106 | 0xb9b1f2… |
| 07-18 08:52:10 | Productive-Brooch 0x34af…bd55 | No | BUY | 1 | 87¢ | $1 | 0x4b59d5… |
| 07-18 08:52:10 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 12¢ | $6 | 0x4b59d5… |
| 07-18 08:52:10 | Long-Term-Overhead 0xbd14…76b4 | No | BUY | 22 | 88¢ | $19 | 0x4b59d5… |
| 07-18 08:52:10 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | SELL | 27 | 12¢ | $3 | 0x4b59d5… |
| 07-18 01:21:36 | (anonymous) 0x8c8f…b385 | No | SELL | 50 | 87¢ | $44 | 0x26eba9… |
| 07-18 01:21:36 | Productive-Brooch 0x34af…bd55 | No | BUY | 50 | 87¢ | $44 | 0x26eba9… |
| 07-18 01:21:33 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | No | SELL | 84 | 87¢ | $73 | 0xd2a09e… |
| 07-18 01:21:33 | Productive-Brooch 0x34af…bd55 | No | BUY | 84 | 87¢ | $73 | 0xd2a09e… |
| 07-18 01:21:30 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | No | SELL | 92 | 88¢ | $81 | 0x094b5d… |
| 07-18 01:21:30 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | SELL | 42 | 12¢ | $5 | 0x094b5d… |
| 07-18 01:21:30 | (anonymous) 0x8c8f…b385 | No | BUY | 50 | 88¢ | $44 | 0x094b5d… |
| 07-18 01:20:57 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | No | BUY | 176 | 88¢ | $155 | 0x837fcb… |
| 07-18 01:20:57 | Jealous-Copywriter 0x226a…6411 | No | SELL | 224 | 88¢ | $198 | 0x837fcb… |
| 07-18 01:20:57 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | SELL | 49 | 12¢ | $6 | 0x837fcb… |
| 07-17 10:24:00 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | SELL | 119 | 12¢ | $14 | 0x9ee8ab… |
| 07-17 10:24:00 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 12¢ | $0 | 0x9ee8ab… |
| 07-17 10:24:00 | Straight-Hunting 0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | BUY | 120 | 12¢ | $14 | 0x9ee8ab… |
| 07-14 07:44:53 | (anonymous) 0x972f…ab22 | No | BUY | 1 | 89¢ | $1 | 0x893e24… |
| 07-14 07:44:53 | Jealous-Copywriter 0x226a…6411 | No | SELL | 1 | 89¢ | $1 | 0x893e24… |
| 07-11 23:13:01 | Jealous-Copywriter 0x226a…6411 | No | SELL | 11 | 89¢ | $10 | 0xd9a6b4… |
| 07-11 23:13:01 | Polished-Hexagon 0x7478…4003 | No | BUY | 11 | 89¢ | $10 | 0xd9a6b4… |
| 07-10 19:17:46 | Jealous-Copywriter 0x226a…6411 | No | SELL | 52 | 89¢ | $46 | 0x1a5090… |
| 07-10 19:17:46 | (anonymous) 0x9de6…e7f0 | No | SELL | 5 | 89¢ | $4 | 0x1a5090… |
| 07-10 19:17:46 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | SELL | 57 | 11¢ | $6 | 0x1a5090… |
| 07-10 05:49:49 | (anonymous) 0x39d3…7c7c | Yes | BUY | 8 | 12¢ | $1 | 0xebaa2e… |
| 07-10 05:49:49 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | SELL | 8 | 12¢ | $1 | 0xebaa2e… |
| 07-09 08:55:17 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 11¢ | $6 | 0xf8df3a… |
| 07-09 08:55:17 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | SELL | 59 | 11¢ | $7 | 0xf8df3a… |
| 07-09 08:55:17 | Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | Yes | BUY | 9 | 11¢ | $1 | 0xf8df3a… |
| 07-09 07:26:44 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | BUY | 39 | 11¢ | $4 | 0x908231… |
| 07-09 07:26:44 | Immediate-Memo 0xe786…9d92 | Yes | SELL | 39 | 11¢ | $4 | 0x908231… |
| 07-09 07:21:58 | Virtual-Ear 0x36b6…e523 | Yes | SELL | 39 | 11¢ | $4 | 0xf7b3e6… |
| 07-09 07:21:58 | Immediate-Memo 0xe786…9d92 | Yes | BUY | 39 | 11¢ | $4 | 0xf7b3e6… |
| 07-09 07:09:53 | Productive-Brooch 0x34af…bd55 | No | BUY | 26 | 87¢ | $23 | 0xc49da9… |
| 07-09 07:09:53 | Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | No | BUY | 13 | 88¢ | $12 | 0xc49da9… |
| 07-09 07:09:53 | Virtual-Ear 0x36b6…e523 | Yes | BUY | 39 | 13¢ | $5 | 0xc49da9… |
| 07-08 19:51:10 | Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | No | BUY | 7 | 88¢ | $6 | 0xba6622… |
| 07-08 19:51:10 | Elegant-Polliwog 0x2287…de14 | No | SELL | 12 | 88¢ | $10 | 0xba6622… |
| 07-08 19:51:10 | (anonymous) 0x9de6…e7f0 | No | BUY | 5 | 88¢ | $4 | 0xba6622… |
| 07-08 19:37:16 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | BUY | 20 | 12¢ | $2 | 0xe6673b… |
| 07-08 19:37:16 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 12¢ | $2 | 0xe6673b… |
| 07-08 19:37:16 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | SELL | 40 | 12¢ | $5 | 0xe6673b… |
| 07-08 09:06:35 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | BUY | 33 | 12¢ | $4 | 0xecb187… |
| 07-08 09:06:35 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | SELL | 33 | 12¢ | $4 | 0xecb187… |
| 07-08 08:06:55 | Polished-Ear 0x379f…8e3e | No | BUY | 11 | 88¢ | $10 | 0x8166f4… |
| 07-08 08:06:55 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | BUY | 11 | 12¢ | $1 | 0x8166f4… |
| 07-08 07:36:58 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | BUY | 33 | 12¢ | $4 | 0x4253be… |
| 07-08 07:36:58 | Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | Yes | BUY | 20 | 12¢ | $2 | 0x4253be… |
| 07-08 07:36:58 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | SELL | 53 | 12¢ | $6 | 0x4253be… |
| 07-07 20:46:28 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 12¢ | $1 | 0x2261c7… |
| 07-07 20:46:28 | (anonymous) 0xd10a…b9cd | Yes | SELL | 5 | 12¢ | $1 | 0x2261c7… |
| 07-07 06:25:16 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | BUY | 40 | 13¢ | $5 | 0xece77d… |
| 07-07 06:25:16 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | BUY | 20 | 13¢ | $3 | 0xece77d… |
| 07-07 06:25:16 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 13¢ | $4 | 0xece77d… |
| 07-07 06:25:16 | Productive-Brooch 0x34af…bd55 | No | BUY | 110 | 87¢ | $95 | 0xece77d… |
| 07-07 06:25:16 | Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | Yes | BUY | 20 | 13¢ | $3 | 0xece77d… |
| 07-05 08:52:28 | Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | Yes | BUY | 20 | 13¢ | $3 | 0xab0282… |
| 07-05 08:52:28 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 13¢ | $3 | 0xab0282… |
| 07-05 08:52:28 | Serpentine-Merchant 0x3d70…e9b0 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 13¢ | $3 | 0xab0282… |
| 07-05 08:52:28 | Immediate-Memo 0xe786…9d92 | Yes | SELL | 60 | 13¢ | $8 | 0xab0282… |
| 07-02 19:44:43 | Immediate-Memo 0xe786…9d92 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 13¢ | $7 | 0xefb067… |
| 07-02 19:44:43 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | SELL | 50 | 13¢ | $7 | 0xefb067… |
| 07-02 18:13:59 | Pointless-Casket 0x081a…66d0 | Yes | SELL | 30 | 14¢ | $4 | 0x233b09… |
| 07-02 18:13:59 | Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | Yes | BUY | 20 | 14¢ | $3 | 0x233b09… |
| 07-02 18:13:59 | Immediate-Memo 0xe786…9d92 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 13¢ | $1 | 0x233b09… |
| 07-02 18:09:43 | Tangible-Fuel 0x6f67…102c | Yes | BUY | 89 | 14¢ | $12 | 0xfd9f75… |
| 07-02 18:09:43 | Pointless-Casket 0x081a…66d0 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 14¢ | $4 | 0xfd9f75… |
| 07-02 18:09:43 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | BUY | 7 | 14¢ | $1 | 0xfd9f75… |
| 07-02 18:09:43 | Long-Term-Overhead 0xbd14…76b4 | Yes | SELL | 162 | 14¢ | $23 | 0xfd9f75… |
| 07-02 18:09:35 | Jealous-Copywriter 0x226a…6411 | No | BUY | 89 | 85¢ | $75 | 0xb5b6ed… |
| 07-02 18:09:35 | Straight-Hunting 0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 15¢ | $3 | 0xb5b6ed… |
| 07-02 18:09:35 | Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | Yes | BUY | 20 | 15¢ | $3 | 0xb5b6ed… |
| 07-02 18:09:35 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | BUY | 49 | 15¢ | $7 | 0xb5b6ed… |
| 07-02 12:12:53 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 15¢ | $3 | 0xc22ff3… |
| 07-02 12:12:53 | Immediate-Memo 0xe786…9d92 | No | SELL | 19 | 85¢ | $16 | 0xc22ff3… |
| 07-02 12:12:53 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 15¢ | $0 | 0xc22ff3… |
| 07-02 12:12:53 | Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | Yes | BUY | 20 | 15¢ | $3 | 0xc22ff3… |
| 07-02 12:12:53 | Jealous-Copywriter 0x226a…6411 | No | BUY | 200 | 85¢ | $170 | 0xc22ff3… |
| 07-01 23:27:02 | Immediate-Memo 0xe786…9d92 | No | SELL | 11 | 85¢ | $10 | 0x55eeef… |
| 07-01 23:27:02 | Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | BUY | 11 | 85¢ | $10 | 0x55eeef… |
| 07-01 19:45:07 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | SELL | 13 | 16¢ | $2 | 0x0e279d… |
| 07-01 19:45:07 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | BUY | 19 | 16¢ | $3 | 0x0e279d… |
| 07-01 19:45:07 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | SELL | 6 | 16¢ | $1 | 0x0e279d… |
| 07-01 16:16:41 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | SELL | 32 | 16¢ | $5 | 0xf0e042… |
| 07-01 16:16:41 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 16¢ | $8 | 0xf0e042… |
| 07-01 16:16:41 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | SELL | 18 | 16¢ | $3 | 0xf0e042… |
| 07-01 11:52:52 | Querulous-Marble 0xf33e…0ab8 | Yes | SELL | 50 | 15¢ | $8 | 0xb008b9… |
| 07-01 11:52:52 | Immediate-Memo 0xe786…9d92 | No | SELL | 50 | 85¢ | $42 | 0xb008b9… |
| 07-01 11:23:58 | Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | No | BUY | 20 | 84¢ | $17 | 0x87bf07… |
| 07-01 11:23:58 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 16¢ | $3 | 0x87bf07… |