Gaseous-Soybean — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$79

Unrealized P&L

+$116

Hit rate

54.5%

Resolved

197

Trades

1,575

lifetime

Volume

$11.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$373

30 positions

First seen

2026-05-25

last 10-26 20:14

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 75 days

Categories

Other

56% 66% -$85

Politics

29% 49% -$39

Tech

13% 69% -$3

Crypto

2% 100% +$48

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

57 active days in 12wk • peak 81 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (13) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	+271	$29	88¢	$240	+$211	10-26 20:14
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+34	$31	82¢	$28	-$3	09-13 07:11
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	+18	$15	84¢	$15	$0	09-13 07:58
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	No	+16	$14	86¢	$14	$0	09-13 07:11
Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	+12	$11	86¢	$11	$0	09-13 07:11
Iran leadership change by November 30?	No	+11	$10	92¢	$10	$0	09-13 07:58
russia x ukraine ceasefire by october 31 2026	No	+8	$8	99¢	$8	+$0	09-13 07:12
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	+7	$6	94¢	$6	$0	09-13 07:58
Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?	No	+6	$5	97¢	$6	+$0	09-13 07:12
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	+6	$2	96¢	$5	+$3	10-19 14:37
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	+4	$4	98¢	$4	+$0	09-13 07:58
will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	+4	$4	97¢	$4	+$0	09-13 07:12
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	+4	$4	94¢	$3	$0	09-13 07:58
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	+5	$3	66¢	$3	+$0	10-26 13:58
Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026?	No	+3	$3	96¢	$3	$0	09-18 12:22
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?	No	+4	$3	76¢	$3	$0	09-13 07:12
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?	No	+3	$0	90¢	$3	+$3	09-13 07:12
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	+2	$1	60¢	$1	+$1	09-27 08:01
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81	Yes	+27	$21	3¢	$1	-$20	09-13 07:11
Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?	Yes	+27	$86	2¢	$1	-$85	09-28 00:20
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	No	+1	$0	99¢	$1	+$1	09-13 06:27
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	No	+1	$0	96¢	$1	+$1	09-13 06:27
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	+1	$1	94¢	$1	$0	09-13 06:27
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	No	+1	-$3	94¢	$1	+$3	09-13 06:27
will strc hit 100 by december 31 20260618001621119	Yes	+1	$0	78¢	$1	+$1	09-13 06:27
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	+1	-$4	97¢	$1	+$4	09-13 06:27
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	+0	$0	98¢	$0	+$0	09-13 06:27
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?	Yes	+8	$2	4¢	$0	-$2	09-07 10:08
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	No	+0	-$2	65¢	$0	+$2	09-13 06:27
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	Anthropic	+0	$0	97¢	$0	+$0	09-13 06:27

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	82	$3.2K	3,057	2,786	+271	open	—	10-26 20:14
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	17	$989	3,759	3,759	+0	open	—	07-22 09:25
Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?	51	$753	996	969	+27	open	—	09-28 00:20
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	24	$515	332	298	+34	open	—	09-13 07:11
Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?	20	$442	435	412	+23	Yes	-$22	08-04 15:52
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	27	$210	147	137	+10	Yes	-$33	09-15 21:55
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	26	$188	129	111	+18	open	—	09-13 07:58
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	10	$186	97	96	+1	open	—	09-13 06:27
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	47	$184	139	128	+11	open	—	09-07 10:08
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?	44	$174	1,484	1,484	+0	Yes	+$68	08-04 15:35
us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	26	$164	174	164	+10	No	-$15	08-12 11:36
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	17	$145	84	76	+8	open	—	09-13 07:12
will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 31	19	$123	81	69	+12	Yes	+$1	07-21 19:45
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	26	$116	149	31	+118	Yes	+$47	06-01 09:34
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	13	$106	67	66	+1	No	+$5	09-13 06:27
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	12	$101	53	52	+0	open	—	09-13 06:27
Will STRC hit $100 by September 30?	26	$99	167	151	+15	No	-$11	09-07 10:08
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	8	$96	63	47	+16	open	—	09-13 07:11
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	13	$95	51	51	+1	open	—	09-13 06:27
us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	14	$85	145	136	+9	No	-$5	08-17 02:11
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?	9	$73	283	30	+253	No	-$73	05-27 22:41
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81	20	$72	408	380	+27	open	—	09-13 07:11
Iran leadership change by December 31?	7	$71	47	35	+12	open	—	09-13 07:11
Iran leadership change by November 30?	9	$70	44	33	+11	open	—	09-13 07:58
will wti reach 85 in august 2026	12	$68	66	58	+8	Yes	+$13	08-17 18:38
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?	13	$68	116	116	+0	Yes	+$13	08-12 21:30
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	14	$66	34	34	+0	open	—	09-13 06:27
us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	8	$65	37	30	+6	No	+$1	08-14 18:33
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	9	$61	42	42	+1	open	—	09-13 06:27
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	12	$59	36	35	+1	open	—	09-13 06:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 20:14:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	18	88¢	$16	0x1faa90…
10-26 13:58:36	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0xcfda7d…
10-25 21:58:29	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	SELL	3	63¢	$2	0x3277d0…
10-25 21:57:54	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0xf86d3f…
10-25 21:55:32	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0x12c8d9…
10-22 22:13:02	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	SELL	4	42¢	$2	0x13feb9…
10-22 18:46:48	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	SELL	5	3¢	$0	0x84df89…
10-22 12:03:29	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	SELL	7	39¢	$3	0xf81b30…
10-22 12:02:33	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	SELL	0	40¢	$0	0xb326af…
10-22 12:01:21	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	SELL	0	40¢	$0	0xa72154…
10-22 09:38:41	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	SELL	0	40¢	$0	0x7eaceb…
10-21 20:16:06	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	SELL	1	16¢	$0	0xb56660…
10-21 20:13:18	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	SELL	1	21¢	$0	0x388500…
10-21 19:24:48	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	SELL	11	5¢	$1	0xe1dc09…
10-21 19:04:57	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	15	23¢	$3	0xc3a6ca…
10-21 19:04:30	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	0	23¢	$0	0x596a28…
10-21 19:04:21	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	SELL	4	5¢	$0	0xa72a38…
10-21 19:04:21	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	SELL	4	5¢	$0	0x7363ea…
10-21 19:03:36	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	5	23¢	$1	0xd8f0e9…
10-20 16:41:36	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	BUY	38	6¢	$2	0xb33864…
10-20 11:43:50	Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18?	No	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xd947cd…
10-19 23:50:53	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	SELL	9	8¢	$1	0xad7495…
10-19 18:34:50	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	9	34¢	$3	0x355894…
10-19 18:27:42	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	BUY	21	13¢	$3	0x642b3c…
10-19 18:25:30	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0x7eb3f3…
10-19 18:25:20	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	7	78¢	$5	0x98407a…
10-19 17:24:15	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	SELL	0	47¢	$0	0xde443d…
10-19 17:23:36	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	3	48¢	$1	0x3e3131…
10-19 16:43:39	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	7	64¢	$5	0x39c50f…
10-19 16:43:02	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	0	64¢	$0	0x42e730…
10-19 16:43:00	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	0	64¢	$0	0xcf9f37…
10-19 14:37:41	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	70¢	$9	0xfa9df9…
10-19 14:36:59	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	70¢	$0	0xf36c4d…
10-19 11:40:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	0	85¢	$0	0xf53007…
10-19 11:40:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	18	87¢	$15	0xb38857…
10-18 10:29:54	Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18?	No	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0xac8366…
10-13 15:45:45	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0xb06d6c…
10-13 03:01:54	Gemini 4.0 released by October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x1bc1f8…
10-13 03:01:51	Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	92¢	$1	0x544556…
10-11 06:01:51	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	Yes	BUY	8	96¢	$8	0x1a7530…
10-11 06:01:39	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	15	78¢	$11	0xd14890…
10-07 20:20:32	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?	No	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0x0b42cc…
10-07 12:01:16	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?	No	SELL	1	82¢	$1	0x486494…
10-07 10:59:57	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?	No	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0x49ebd0…
10-06 18:14:18	0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by October 31?	Yes	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0x349ade…
10-06 17:19:47	0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by October 31?	Yes	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x05ae45…
10-03 15:21:59	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	65¢	$2	0x5f175e…
10-03 15:20:14	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	64¢	$0	0xf2cc60…
10-03 12:52:59	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0x37a46b…
10-03 12:51:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	1	79¢	$0	0xaf3c73…
10-02 22:41:02	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	61¢	$2	0x4c73bc…
10-02 21:14:50	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0x40a6d6…
10-02 15:55:15	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	60¢	$0	0xffc01e…
10-02 14:08:48	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x76ab53…
10-02 13:23:41	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	60¢	$0	0xf26dc6…
10-02 13:09:06	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x0ec70a…
10-02 10:41:32	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	55¢	$0	0x28a002…
10-02 09:17:35	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0xc354b3…
09-30 20:26:57	Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0x375f4a…
09-30 20:15:14	Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	6	92¢	$6	0xf24d3c…
09-30 20:10:45	Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	7¢	$0	0xf736d0…
09-30 20:10:45	Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	7¢	$0	0x6dd1f9…
09-30 20:09:32	Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	16¢	$2	0x02730d…
09-30 20:08:53	Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	19¢	$1	0x6dddab…
09-30 11:42:08	Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	62¢	$0	0xa25268…
09-30 11:42:06	Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	62¢	$0	0x996f9a…
09-30 11:42:00	Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x26abaf…
09-30 11:27:30	Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	64¢	$0	0x10c401…
09-30 11:25:56	Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xf29109…
09-30 09:35:44	Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	70¢	$3	0x73ff2f…
09-30 06:27:50	0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by October 31?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x4bb9a9…
09-29 18:37:00	Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?	Yes	SELL	1	12¢	$0	0x302e56…
09-29 17:23:44	Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?	Yes	BUY	7	17¢	$1	0x625d43…
09-29 13:05:54	0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by September 30?	No	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0xa61ad4…
09-28 17:58:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	109	76¢	$83	0x5467dc…
09-28 17:27:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	102	76¢	$78	0x09d6ec…
09-28 17:18:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	104	75¢	$78	0x35d553…
09-28 17:17:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	10	76¢	$7	0x099107…
09-28 17:16:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	5	74¢	$4	0x4a1766…
09-28 17:16:27	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	5	74¢	$4	0x205215…
09-28 17:16:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	5	74¢	$4	0xe507bd…
09-28 17:14:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	115	76¢	$87	0x6e6384…
09-28 16:03:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	131	76¢	$100	0x3d04f0…
09-28 15:48:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	2	77¢	$2	0x4d9a6f…
09-28 15:38:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	118	78¢	$92	0xa002ec…
09-28 14:05:42	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?	No	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0x7bd56e…
09-28 14:05:36	Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?	No	BUY	4	65¢	$3	0x0453a8…
09-28 12:19:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	116	76¢	$88	0x8b7baa…
09-28 12:10:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	350	78¢	$273	0x9913a5…
09-28 12:08:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0x31c274…
09-28 12:08:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0x002a56…
09-28 00:20:29	Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	3¢	$0	0x033343…
09-27 09:08:48	Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	4¢	$0	0x0837c3…
09-27 08:35:24	Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	4¢	$0	0xb720f9…
09-27 08:01:11	Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	49¢	$0	0xeb4bb7…
09-27 07:27:47	Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x7110a7…
09-23 13:13:47	Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	5¢	$0	0xd83698…
09-23 12:35:47	Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	5¢	$0	0x5246e6…
09-23 04:31:16	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x43a0d9…
09-22 00:58:49	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in September?	No	BUY	3	94¢	$3	0x80c004…