Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
open
Total volume
$1,002
Trades
63
Unique wallets
16
Liquidity
$1,691
Latest YES mid
8¢
Latest NO mid
92¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-06-11
last 07-21 19:50
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
NO holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 2 | $3 | — | +$3 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 6 | $11 | $154 | $143 |
| 🐟 Fish | 6 | $55 | $32 | +$23 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 2 | $1 | $138 | $137 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏆 Top 5% | 4 | $5 | — | +$5 |
| Below median | 3 | $34 | $134 | $100 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 1 | — | — | +— |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 3 | — | $20 | $20 |
| unranked | 5 | $31 | $170 | $138 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slow-Exhibit 0x1411…2410 | No | +150 | $138 | $138 | 1 | 07-04 13:56 |
| Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | +22 | $2 | $57 | 18 | 07-21 19:50 |
| Trustworthy-Crayon 0x6b44…be1e | No | +22 | $20 | $20 | 1 | 07-21 19:50 |
| Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | Yes | +17 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-10 19:18 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-21 19:50:54 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | BUY | 22 | 9¢ | $2 | 0xca8515… |
| 07-21 19:50:54 | Trustworthy-Crayon 0x6b44…be1e | No | BUY | 22 | 91¢ | $20 | 0xca8515… |
| 07-21 09:31:45 | Straight-Hunting 0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | SELL | 25 | 8¢ | $2 | 0x738875… |
| 07-21 09:31:45 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 8¢ | $2 | 0x738875… |
| 07-21 08:13:52 | Straight-Hunting 0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | SELL | 43 | 8¢ | $3 | 0x79a0e7… |
| 07-21 08:13:52 | Brave-Hummus 0x8673…4025 | No | SELL | 49 | 92¢ | $45 | 0x79a0e7… |
| 07-21 08:13:52 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | SELL | 6 | 8¢ | $0 | 0x79a0e7… |
| 07-21 08:12:01 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | SELL | 44 | 8¢ | $4 | 0x6f2233… |
| 07-21 08:12:01 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | No | SELL | 144 | 92¢ | $132 | 0x6f2233… |
| 07-21 08:11:31 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | No | BUY | 34 | 93¢ | $31 | 0x543db9… |
| 07-21 08:11:31 | (anonymous) 0xf7ec…e53a | No | SELL | 34 | 93¢ | $31 | 0x543db9… |
| 07-21 08:11:30 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | SELL | 150 | 7¢ | $11 | 0x019c00… |
| 07-21 08:11:30 | Flawed-Meander 0x42b7…abff | No | SELL | 15 | 93¢ | $14 | 0x045ddb… |
| 07-21 08:11:30 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | No | BUY | 95 | 93¢ | $88 | 0x019c00… |
| 07-21 08:11:30 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | No | BUY | 15 | 93¢ | $14 | 0x045ddb… |
| 07-21 08:11:30 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | SELL | 40 | 7¢ | $3 | 0x019c00… |
| 07-21 08:11:30 | Sore-Pitching 0x564f…7026 | No | SELL | 319 | 93¢ | $296 | 0x019c00… |
| 07-21 08:11:30 | (anonymous) 0xf7ec…e53a | No | BUY | 34 | 93¢ | $31 | 0x019c00… |
| 07-17 10:25:51 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | SELL | 31 | 7¢ | $2 | 0x7daeb5… |
| 07-17 10:25:51 | (anonymous) 0x9de6…e7f0 | No | BUY | 0 | 93¢ | $0 | 0x7daeb5… |
| 07-17 10:25:51 | Straight-Hunting 0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | BUY | 31 | 7¢ | $2 | 0x7daeb5… |
| 07-16 17:45:53 | (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | SELL | 14 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x49c8cf… |
| 07-16 17:45:53 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 7¢ | $0 | 0xc7e60a… |
| 07-16 17:45:53 | Sore-Pitching 0x564f…7026 | No | SELL | 14 | 94¢ | $13 | 0x49c8cf… |
| 07-16 17:45:53 | Flawed-Meander 0x42b7…abff | No | SELL | 1 | 93¢ | $1 | 0xc7e60a… |
| 07-15 14:59:13 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | BUY | 31 | 6¢ | $2 | 0x28c16f… |
| 07-15 14:59:13 | (anonymous) 0xc71b…e265 | Yes | SELL | 31 | 6¢ | $2 | 0x28c16f… |
| 07-15 08:39:56 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | BUY | 40 | 6¢ | $2 | 0x3387ce… |
| 07-15 08:39:56 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | SELL | 40 | 6¢ | $2 | 0x3387ce… |
| 07-14 19:57:14 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | SELL | 40 | 6¢ | $2 | 0x3f08c2… |
| 07-14 19:57:14 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | BUY | 40 | 6¢ | $2 | 0x3f08c2… |
| 07-14 12:18:16 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | BUY | 40 | 6¢ | $2 | 0xa95391… |
| 07-14 12:18:16 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | Yes | SELL | 40 | 6¢ | $2 | 0xa95391… |
| 07-14 12:18:13 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 7¢ | $4 | 0x138482… |
| 07-14 12:18:13 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | Yes | SELL | 50 | 7¢ | $4 | 0x138482… |
| 07-14 12:17:53 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 7¢ | $4 | 0xc70107… |
| 07-14 12:17:53 | (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 7¢ | $1 | 0xc70107… |
| 07-14 12:17:53 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | Yes | BUY | 90 | 7¢ | $6 | 0xc70107… |
| 07-14 12:17:53 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | SELL | 150 | 7¢ | $11 | 0xc70107… |
| 07-13 13:15:56 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 7¢ | $4 | 0x548541… |
| 07-13 13:15:56 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | SELL | 50 | 7¢ | $4 | 0x548541… |
| 07-13 10:58:16 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 7¢ | $1 | 0xfd9897… |
| 07-13 10:58:16 | (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | BUY | 4 | 7¢ | $0 | 0xfd9897… |
| 07-13 10:58:16 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | SELL | 74 | 7¢ | $5 | 0xfd9897… |
| 07-11 18:50:23 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 8¢ | $2 | 0x9a1c0a… |
| 07-11 18:50:23 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 8¢ | $2 | 0x9a1c0a… |
| 07-11 15:34:13 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 8¢ | $1 | 0xc64547… |
| 07-11 15:34:13 | Haunting-Rubric 0xdb40…3612 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 8¢ | $1 | 0xc64547… |
| 07-11 12:40:16 | (anonymous) 0xf7ec…e53a | Yes | SELL | 10 | 7¢ | $1 | 0x87ddfc… |
| 07-11 12:40:16 | Haunting-Rubric 0xdb40…3612 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 7¢ | $1 | 0x87ddfc… |
| 07-11 12:40:13 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | SELL | 60 | 8¢ | $5 | 0x17417d… |
| 07-11 12:40:13 | (anonymous) 0xf7ec…e53a | Yes | BUY | 10 | 8¢ | $1 | 0x17417d… |
| 07-11 12:40:13 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 8¢ | $4 | 0x17417d… |
| 07-10 19:18:37 | Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | Yes | BUY | 17 | 8¢ | $1 | 0xb3193b… |
| 07-10 19:18:37 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | Yes | SELL | 17 | 8¢ | $1 | 0xb3193b… |
| 07-10 19:18:31 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | SELL | 77 | 8¢ | $6 | 0xf3cee9… |
| 07-10 19:18:31 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | BUY | 60 | 8¢ | $5 | 0xf3cee9… |
| 07-10 19:18:31 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | Yes | BUY | 17 | 8¢ | $1 | 0xf3cee9… |
| 07-04 13:56:50 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | BUY | 79 | 8¢ | $6 | 0xae9acc… |
| 07-04 13:56:50 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | BUY | 71 | 8¢ | $6 | 0xae9acc… |
| 07-04 13:56:50 | Slow-Exhibit 0x1411…2410 | No | BUY | 150 | 92¢ | $138 | 0xae9acc… |
| 06-11 08:33:16 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | SELL | 56 | 9¢ | $5 | 0x9eb400… |
| 06-11 08:33:16 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | BUY | 56 | 9¢ | $5 | 0x9eb400… |