Realized P&L
+$508
Unrealized P&L
+$185
Hit rate
88.7%
Resolved
39
Trades
17,526
lifetime
Volume
$1.08M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$62
Open exposure
$12.1K
24 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-30 18:16
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 13 days
Categories
Politics
53% 75% +$491
Other
41% 59% +$17
Crypto
2%
Sports
2%
Tech
1%
Pop-Culture
1% 0% $-0
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 150 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? No +5,171 $5,098 100¢ $5.2K +$59 06-18 16:47
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? No +2,757 $2,696 99¢ $2.7K +$39 06-25 18:16
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? No +985 $976 100¢ $981 +$5 06-25 18:14
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No +850 $786 100¢ $848 +$62 06-12 09:21
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? No +1,000 $802 81¢ $814 +$12 06-30 17:53
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No +300 $293 100¢ $300 +$7 06-24 00:15
Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by June 30, 2026? No -222 $-221 100¢ $-222 $-0 06-26 14:26
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No +222 $198 100¢ $221 +$24 06-20 18:21
Will Intercontinental Exchange self-certify sports event contracts by June 30, 2026? No -220 $-209 99¢ $-219 $-10 05-30 19:18
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No +190 $171 90¢ $172 +$1 06-21 18:19
Will Xi Jinping purge Cai Qi in 2026? No +150 $143 94¢ $140 $-3 06-21 08:34
Will Amazon have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? No +86 $78 90¢ $78 +$0 06-11 08:32
Pluto reclassified as a planet by June 30? No -60 $-58 100¢ $-60 $-2 06-01 16:23
Tucker Carlson federally charged? No -55 $-54 100¢ $-55 $-1 06-03 05:46
Will Kansas use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? No -58 $-54 92¢ $-53 +$0 06-23 02:41
Will Xi Jinping purge Zhang Shengmin in 2026? No -42 $-40 94¢ $-39 +$1 06-12 22:12
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? Yes -213 $-11 $-10 +$1 06-29 16:05
Will Meituan have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? Yes -58 $-4 $-4 +$0 06-12 13:02
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes +850 $20 $2 $-18 06-12 04:16
Tabi FDV above $3B one day after launch? Yes -55 $-1 $-1 $-1 06-01 08:32
Will s1mple retire by June 30? Yes +555 $1 $1 +$0 06-30 08:40
Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30? Yes -50 $-0 $-0 +$0 06-05 07:10
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Yes -21 $-1 $-0 +$1 05-31 14:34
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes -0 $-6 $-0 +$6 06-29 16:27