Realized P&L
+$28.9K
Unrealized P&L
+$4.99K
Hit rate
90.2%
Resolved
2,780
Trades
24,138
lifetime
Volume
$2.18M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$90
Open exposure
$82.4K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-29 14:14
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 265 days
Categories
Politics
49% 67% +$616
Other
46% 61% +$27,308
Sports
2% 52% +$516
Crypto
1% 67% +$573
Tech
1% 56% +$541
Pop-Culture
1% 50% -$650
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
82 active days in 12wk • peak 65 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No +20,000 $18,600 94¢ $18.7K +$100 10-29 14:14
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31? No +11,590 $10,150 97¢ $11.2K +$1,098 10-28 17:34
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +7,503 $6,188 97¢ $7.3K +$1,090 10-29 09:55
iran charges hormuz fees by october 31 No +6,755 $5,715 98¢ $6.7K +$935 10-08 20:48
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? Yes +6,602 $6,549 100¢ $6.6K +$53 10-29 07:39
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +5,888 $5,114 96¢ $5.7K +$568 10-29 01:27
Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026? No +4,444 $3,763 98¢ $4.4K +$592 10-28 10:04
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2? No +2,500 $2,185 93¢ $2.3K +$149 10-19 11:15
Will a US-Iran deal in 2026 include Surrender of Iranian Enriched Uranium? No +2,500 $2,325 92¢ $2.3K -$12 10-19 12:10
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +2,500 $1,794 82¢ $2.1K +$268 10-02 18:03
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting? Yes +8,000 $1,880 22¢ $1.7K -$160 10-14 18:07
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? No +1,935 $1,539 88¢ $1.7K +$154 10-21 07:39
will a 5 uranium enrichment cap 1 year be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201637 No +1,755 $995 88¢ $1.5K +$540 10-06 23:01
Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31? No +1,784 $1,387 84¢ $1.5K +$103 10-12 19:01
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? Yes +3,522 $2,057 38¢ $1.3K -$736 10-10 10:54
will dilution of iranian uranium be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201639 No +1,500 $1,154 87¢ $1.3K +$151 10-15 00:30
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? Yes +2,000 $1,270 52¢ $1.0K -$220 10-06 19:43
Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? No +809 $680 88¢ $716 +$36 10-25 15:41
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No +700 $632 96¢ $672 +$40 08-25 22:14
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 31? No +555 $527 99¢ $548 +$21 09-28 06:48
Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? No +622 $440 88¢ $544 +$105 10-13 14:46
Will Oklahoma enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026? No +559 $536 97¢ $541 +$5 10-16 20:01
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No +486 $396 98¢ $474 +$78 06-17 04:41
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? No +407 $346 98¢ $399 +$53 10-29 11:35
Ebola pandemic in 2026? No +323 $284 97¢ $314 +$30 05-27 04:47
Iran nuclear test before 2027? No -250 -$230 96¢ $-239 -$9 05-04 23:07
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? No -226 -$216 99¢ $-223 -$7 04-29 17:11
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? No -150 -$140 100¢ $-149 -$9 06-19 04:04
Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026? Yes +144 $128 84¢ $121 -$7 10-16 08:32
Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026? No -116 -$96 99¢ $-115 -$19 05-01 11:23