Will Baidu have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
open
Total volume
$340
Trades
29
Unique wallets
10
Liquidity
$2,260
Latest YES mid
8¢
Latest NO mid
92¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-06-09
last 07-04 13:54
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
NO holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 1 | — | $1 | $1 |
| 🐟 Fish | 2 | $13 | — | +$13 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 7 | $14 | $248 | $235 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below median | 2 | $13 | $18 | $5 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 2 | — | $1 | $1 |
| unranked | 6 | $14 | $230 | $216 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | +162 | $14 | $14 | 2 | 07-04 13:54 |
| Slow-Exhibit 0x1411…2410 | No | +150 | $138 | $138 | 1 | 07-04 13:54 |
| Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | +50 | $3 | $23 | 14 | 07-04 13:54 |
| (anonymous) 0xdaaa…9dd8 | No | +40 | $37 | $37 | 1 | 07-04 01:31 |
| Moral-Model 0xbcfb…eceb | No | +20 | $18 | $18 | 2 | 06-29 05:07 |
| (anonymous) 0xf279…880b | No | +3 | $3 | $3 | 2 | 06-23 04:29 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-04 13:54:40 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | BUY | 43 | 8¢ | $3 | 0xbf52b0… |
| 07-04 13:54:40 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | BUY | 107 | 8¢ | $9 | 0xbf52b0… |
| 07-04 13:54:40 | Slow-Exhibit 0x1411…2410 | No | BUY | 150 | 92¢ | $138 | 0xbf52b0… |
| 07-04 01:31:38 | (anonymous) 0xdaaa…9dd8 | No | BUY | 40 | 92¢ | $37 | 0x065867… |
| 07-04 01:31:38 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | BUY | 40 | 8¢ | $3 | 0x065867… |
| 07-03 12:39:53 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 9¢ | $0 | 0x39353c… |
| 07-03 12:39:53 | (anonymous) 0x3175…9bb2 | No | SELL | 1 | 91¢ | $1 | 0x39353c… |
| 07-01 19:28:17 | (anonymous) 0x3175…9bb2 | No | BUY | 1 | 92¢ | $1 | 0x67a97d… |
| 07-01 19:28:17 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 8¢ | $0 | 0x67a97d… |
| 06-29 05:07:43 | Moral-Model 0xbcfb…eceb | No | BUY | 10 | 92¢ | $9 | 0x2dee0b… |
| 06-29 05:07:43 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 8¢ | $1 | 0x2dee0b… |
| 06-29 04:26:46 | Moral-Model 0xbcfb…eceb | No | BUY | 10 | 92¢ | $9 | 0x439b05… |
| 06-29 04:26:46 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 8¢ | $1 | 0x439b05… |
| 06-23 04:29:04 | (anonymous) 0xf279…880b | No | BUY | 1 | 92¢ | $1 | 0x2998bb… |
| 06-23 04:29:04 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 8¢ | $0 | 0x2998bb… |
| 06-22 17:12:38 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | BUY | 2 | 8¢ | $0 | 0x7b571e… |
| 06-22 17:12:38 | (anonymous) 0xf279…880b | No | BUY | 2 | 92¢ | $2 | 0x7b571e… |
| 06-22 02:39:16 | Wilted-Employ 0x1a96…9797 | No | SELL | 1 | 91¢ | $1 | 0xfc38fb… |
| 06-22 02:39:16 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 9¢ | $0 | 0xfc38fb… |
| 06-22 02:38:25 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 8¢ | $0 | 0x53f19c… |
| 06-22 02:38:25 | Wilted-Employ 0x1a96…9797 | No | BUY | 1 | 92¢ | $1 | 0x53f19c… |
| 06-17 09:42:58 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | SELL | 55 | 9¢ | $5 | 0xce9d2a… |
| 06-17 09:42:58 | (anonymous) 0x6235…df76 | No | SELL | 55 | 91¢ | $50 | 0xce9d2a… |
| 06-12 04:58:16 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | BUY | 55 | 8¢ | $4 | 0x27d374… |
| 06-12 04:58:16 | (anonymous) 0x6235…df76 | No | BUY | 55 | 92¢ | $51 | 0x27d374… |
| 06-11 08:33:24 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | BUY | 56 | 9¢ | $5 | 0xbd35ac… |
| 06-11 08:33:24 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | SELL | 56 | 9¢ | $5 | 0xbd35ac… |
| 06-09 10:03:48 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 9¢ | $0 | 0xc17c3c… |
| 06-09 10:03:48 | Quarterly-Humidity 0xd6fa…4f2d | No | SELL | 1 | 91¢ | $1 | 0xc17c3c… |