Quarterly-Humidity — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$74

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

19.0%

Resolved

Trades

5,309

lifetime

Volume

$40.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-28

last 06-18 05:58

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 16 days

Categories

Other

55% 14% $-71

Politics

34% 29% $-3

Tech

8% — —

Sports

2% 0% $-0

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

20 active days in 12wk • peak 82 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 25?	54	$438	430	480	-50	open	—	04-24 12:46
Tulsi Gabbard out by April 30?	28	$427	548	506	+42	open	—	04-28 18:41
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 70m?	36	$403	457	456	+1	open	—	04-27 17:15
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?	6	$388	201	201	+0	open	—	04-23 18:03
internet access restored in iran by april 30 2026	10	$377	284	283	+1	open	—	04-20 18:47
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by April 30?	7	$370	203	202	+2	open	—	04-19 22:33
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	2	$348	201	201	+0	open	—	04-07 00:29
will hezbollah disarm by april 30 343	4	$336	380	380	+0	open	—	04-12 07:40
Will Putin visit China by May 31?	4	$333	202	202	+0	open	—	04-23 14:55
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	2	$265	201	201	+0	open	—	04-07 12:11
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	19	$264	276	276	+0	open	—	04-06 14:40
Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027?	3	$257	201	201	+0	open	—	04-04 20:04
will the bank of russia make no change to the key rate after the april meeting	35	$232	222	214	+8	open	—	04-24 12:41
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 5, 2026?	19	$229	266	214	+52	open	—	04-05 12:28
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 7, 2026?	27	$228	338	391	-52	open	—	04-11 04:41
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by April 30?	14	$223	235	229	+6	open	—	04-29 09:42
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by April 26, 2026?	11	$206	255	255	+0	open	—	04-20 14:00
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 21, 2026?	25	$205	180	180	+0	open	—	04-21 08:33
Will the DHS shutdown end between April 29-30, 2026?	24	$204	255	252	+3	open	—	04-25 21:05
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?	25	$202	216	215	+0	open	—	04-20 23:33
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 5, 2026?	9	$201	158	158	+0	open	—	04-06 06:41
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?	27	$200	205	203	+3	open	—	04-21 02:11
Will Reform UK win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	6	$199	202	202	+0	Yes	$-5	04-24 21:34
military action against iran ends by may 31 2026	7	$199	202	201	+1	open	—	04-09 20:27
Will the People's Bank of China decrease rates in April?	7	$198	145	142	+3	open	—	04-20 01:01
Will OpenAI have the #2 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	11	$197	204	202	+2	open	—	04-21 12:32
Will the Green Party win at least 500 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	24	$197	185	184	+1	Yes	$-0	05-07 00:41
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?	5	$196	201	201	+0	open	—	04-21 11:28
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by May 31?	27	$196	204	222	-18	open	—	05-28 22:59
usb quarterly earnings gaap eps 04 16 2026 1pt14	21	$195	204	199	+5	open	—	04-16 05:50

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-18 05:58:41	Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Yes	SELL	1	7¢	$0	0xac0012…
06-18 05:45:26	Will Donald Trump visit Lebanon in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	6¢	$0	0x2061d7…
06-18 05:43:19	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1	8¢	$0	0xd9e98e…
06-18 05:43:05	Will OpenAI announce a necklace-style wearable in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	9¢	$0	0xd22231…
06-18 05:42:49	Will OpenAI announce a computer (Laptop/Desktop) in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	12¢	$0	0xa7714d…
06-18 05:42:29	Will Bernie endorse Antonio Delgado for NY-Gov by Nov 2 2026 ET?	Yes	SELL	1	8¢	$0	0x39495b…
06-18 05:39:04	Ramp IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1	10¢	$0	0x32fab4…
06-18 05:38:56	Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Yes	SELL	0	61¢	$0	0x66ce2a…
06-18 05:38:46	Will Lovable be acquired before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1	22¢	$0	0x81155d…
06-18 05:37:43	Will Loretta Lynch be arrested before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1	23¢	$0	0xd092f0…
06-10 10:12:22	AI bubble burst in 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	24¢	$0	0x1451cf…
06-10 10:12:15	Will Edna DeVries advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	2	3¢	$0	0x9dc6c9…
06-10 10:12:07	Will Cursor be acquired before 2027?	No	SELL	1	11¢	$0	0x1d517d…
06-10 08:41:00	Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	17¢	$0	0x016e46…
06-10 08:13:57	Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	10¢	$0	0xd568ca…
06-10 08:13:49	Will Pam Bondi be arrested before 2027?	Yes	SELL	2	3¢	$0	0x2268ae…
06-10 08:13:43	Will Bernie endorse Kshama Sawant for WA-09 by Nov 2 2026 ET?	Yes	SELL	1	8¢	$0	0x85c9fd…
06-10 08:13:30	Diddy released from custody in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	5¢	$0	0x861bba…
06-10 08:11:34	will tori launch a token by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	21	0¢	$0	0xc76604…
06-10 08:10:13	Will any AI model reach 1550 Coding Arena Score by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	21¢	$0	0x2cd8d2…
06-10 08:09:45	Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Exam?	Yes	SELL	1	9¢	$0	0xa79cd2…
06-10 07:52:27	will trump meet with mohammed bin salman in june 2026	Yes	SELL	1	33¢	$0	0xf337d9…
06-09 10:34:10	Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	13¢	$0	0xbb2cbe…
06-09 10:33:52	OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B?	No	SELL	1	13¢	$0	0xc8b024…
06-09 10:33:40	Will Russia enter Shevchenko by June 30?	No	SELL	0	83¢	$0	0xd21137…
06-09 10:33:16	Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay	No	SELL	0	82¢	$0	0x0d47c1…
06-09 10:32:36	Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	SELL	0	89¢	$0	0x073559…
06-09 10:31:27	Will Trump meet with MrBeast in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	17¢	$0	0x60daaf…
06-09 10:31:13	Brex IPO before 2027?	No	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x478bb8…
06-09 10:31:06	Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30?	No	SELL	0	88¢	$0	0x3a1f96…
06-09 10:30:57	Will Adam Schiff be arrested before 2027?	No	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0x078f46…
06-09 10:30:49	Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1	18¢	$0	0x23d9a1…
06-09 10:30:45	Will OpenAI announce a watch in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	15¢	$0	0xf14eb8…
06-09 10:30:39	OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	0	56¢	$0	0xee8fcf…
06-09 10:30:30	Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?	No	SELL	0	87¢	$0	0x7adfe1…
06-09 10:30:16	Will Benny Gantz join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by June 30?	No	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0xeb27d4…
06-09 10:29:42	Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0xe05869…
06-09 10:29:36	Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	1	23¢	$0	0x7e6599…
06-09 10:29:22	Will Ivanka Trump announce a presidential run before 2027?	No	SELL	0	93¢	$0	0x52f0ea…
06-09 10:29:03	Will Donald Trump visit Pakistan in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	21¢	$0	0x9467ac…
06-09 10:28:42	Will Xi Jinping purge Zhang Shengmin in 2026?	No	SELL	0	95¢	$0	0x28f0ec…
06-09 10:28:27	Will Frontier Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1	18¢	$0	0x1f79fe…
06-09 10:28:16	Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30?	No	SELL	0	97¢	$0	0x0890a0…
06-09 10:28:04	Will Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	15¢	$0	0x792d2e…
06-09 10:28:00	will russia capture all of chasiv yar by september 30	No	SELL	0	72¢	$0	0x293712…
06-09 10:27:39	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	0	96¢	$0	0x8aaf90…
06-09 10:27:27	Will US unemployment reach at least 5.5% in 2026?	No	SELL	0	89¢	$0	0xbeb102…
06-09 10:27:13	Will Israel annex Gaza territory by June 30 2026?	No	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x9d6de3…
06-09 10:27:01	Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	74¢	$0	0xc43489…
06-09 10:26:54	OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B?	Yes	SELL	0	84¢	$0	0xa0a8eb…
06-09 10:26:09	Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	89¢	$0	0x99663b…
06-09 10:25:33	Will OpenAI announce a computer (Laptop/Desktop) in 2026?	No	SELL	0	87¢	$0	0xae4d46…
06-09 10:25:00	Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Exam?	No	SELL	0	91¢	$0	0x50abbd…
06-09 10:24:43	Will Bernie endorse Kshama Sawant for WA-09 by Nov 2 2026 ET?	No	SELL	0	85¢	$0	0x24b52a…
06-09 10:23:58	trump meets with putin by june 30	No	SELL	0	95¢	$0	0x2bfa8e…
06-09 10:23:49	Will Valve remove Overpass from the Map Pool?	No	SELL	0	97¢	$0	0x4f49bc…
06-09 10:23:21	Japanese parliament dissolved in 2026?	No	SELL	0	89¢	$0	0x32f86e…
06-09 10:23:13	Vanta IPO before 2027?	No	SELL	0	86¢	$0	0xcc0359…
06-09 10:22:58	Will Nina Linh advance from the CA-40 primary election?	No	SELL	0	96¢	$0	0x32dd21…
06-09 10:22:09	Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?	No	SELL	0	97¢	$0	0xf65dcb…
06-09 10:21:45	OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?	Yes	SELL	1	28¢	$0	0x7b9be4…
06-09 10:21:37	Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.75% or lower before 2027?	No	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0xb94f0a…
06-09 10:21:28	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	Yes	SELL	1	45¢	$0	0xdf0f30…
06-09 10:20:54	European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?	No	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x81a582…
06-09 10:20:42	Will Trump end Department of Education before 2027?	Yes	SELL	4	6¢	$0	0x71c9cb…
06-09 10:20:30	Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?	No	SELL	0	87¢	$0	0x7c0637…
06-09 10:20:00	Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	0	85¢	$0	0x637e72…
06-09 10:19:45	Jonathan Majors as Kang?	No	SELL	0	90¢	$0	0xdb5381…
06-09 10:19:18	Will Nancy Dahlstrom advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?	No	SELL	0	97¢	$0	0x3be57a…
06-09 10:18:52	New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	1	51¢	$0	0xdc7a76…
06-09 10:18:39	Steve Bannon exonerated by June 30?	No	SELL	1	62¢	$0	0xf1e411…
06-09 10:18:31	Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?	No	SELL	1	83¢	$0	0x6efa07…
06-09 10:18:18	Will Hillary Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?	No	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0x054f91…
06-09 10:18:04	Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	0	87¢	$0	0xffd75e…
06-09 10:17:58	Will Tom Begich advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?	Yes	SELL	0	91¢	$0	0x7bf7e3…
06-09 10:17:51	Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?	No	SELL	0	98¢	$0	0x9ce983…
06-09 10:17:24	Will US unemployment reach at least 10.0% in 2026?	No	SELL	0	96¢	$0	0x7f1ed2…
06-09 10:17:07	State of Siege declared in Chile by June 30?	No	SELL	0	97¢	$0	0x62ae5c…
06-09 10:16:36	Epic Games IPO before 2027?	No	SELL	1	86¢	$0	0x22a7b9…
06-09 10:15:51	Will Kevin Spacey be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$0	0x7fc022…
06-09 10:15:43	Will Virginia use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x412632…
06-09 10:15:36	Will Hillary Clinton be arrested before 2027?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x5cddd6…
06-09 10:15:24	Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 6,000 in 2026?	No	SELL	1	73¢	$1	0x916ccd…
06-09 10:15:16	Peru General Election invalidated by June 30?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x618706…
06-09 10:15:10	Another Elon baby by June 30?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x13228f…
06-09 10:14:58	Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?	No	SELL	1	81¢	$1	0x50d06e…
06-09 10:14:25	Will Marie Gluesenkamp Perez advance to the general election for WA-03?	Yes	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0xe95173…
06-09 10:14:06	Will Trump pardon Do Kwon before 2027?	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xc71b34…
06-09 10:13:58	Will the RSF capture Khartoum by June 30?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x8d0025…
06-09 10:06:10	Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	SELL	1	71¢	$1	0x652a55…
06-09 10:05:43	will donald trump publicly insult elon musk by june 30 2026	No	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0x621def…
06-09 10:04:58	Will Waymo launch in Las Vegas by June 30 2026?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x56fc1c…
06-09 10:04:19	Will Woody Allen be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xd6fa69…
06-09 10:04:01	Will Michael Jackson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x5fd8ce…
06-09 10:03:48	Will Baidu have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0xc17c3c…
06-09 10:03:39	Will Hillary Clinton announce a Presidential run before 2027?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xbdd22f…
06-09 10:03:31	Will Xi Jinping purge Wang Yi in 2026?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xa179e2…
06-09 10:02:54	Will Hunter Biden announce a Presidential run before 2027?	No	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0xa061d5…
06-09 10:02:46	Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0x902cdf…
06-09 10:02:31	Over $1B crypto hack value in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0xa69881…