Quarterly-Humidity 0xd6fa07…4b4f2d
bot 2L streak
← all wallets
Realized P&L
-$74
Unrealized P&L
-$0
Hit rate
19.0%
Resolved
81
Trades
5,309
lifetime
Volume
$40.6K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$8
Open exposure
$154
30 positions
First seen
2026-03-28
last 06-18 05:58
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 16 days
Categories
Other
55% 14% $-71
Politics
34% 29% $-3
Tech
8% — —
Sports
2% 0% $-0
Pop-Culture
1% — —
Crypto
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
61 active days in 12wk • peak 361 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Laurent Wauquiez be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? No +21 $19 97¢ $20 +$2 05-28 20:43
Will Xi Jinping purge Zhang Shengmin in 2026? No -21 $-20 94¢ $-20 +$0 06-09 10:28
Will Jean Castex be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? No -21 $-19 93¢ $-20 $-1 06-03 05:04
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B? Yes -14 $-12 83¢ $-12 $-0 06-09 10:26
Over $1B crypto hack value in 2026? Yes -10 $-9 96¢ $-9 $-1 06-09 10:02
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? No -9 $-8 88¢ $-8 +$0 06-09 10:20
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? Yes -48 $-8 17¢ $-8 $-0 05-29 15:03
Will J.D. Vance announce a presidential run before 2027? Yes -42 $-4 16¢ $-7 $-3 05-31 12:42
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? No -5 $-5 96¢ $-5 $-0 06-04 17:38
Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No -6 $-5 76¢ $-5 +$1 06-09 10:01
Will Bernie endorse Antonio Delgado for NY-Gov by Nov 2 2026 ET? No -4 $-4 96¢ $-4 $-0 06-03 05:04
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027? No -4 $-4 92¢ $-4 +$0 06-09 10:30
Will Hunter Biden announce a Presidential run before 2027? No -4 $-3 94¢ $-4 $-0 06-09 10:02
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Yes -51 $-6 7¢ $-3 +$2 05-31 10:39
Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? Yes -21 $-3 14¢ $-3 +$0 06-03 05:04
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? No -3 $-2 93¢ $-3 $-0 06-09 10:02
FDA approves Retatrutide this year? No -3 $-2 84¢ $-3 $-0 06-03 05:04
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? No -3 $-2 86¢ $-2 $-0 06-09 10:01
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting? No -2 $-2 85¢ $-2 $-0 06-09 10:18
Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? No -2 $-2 86¢ $-2 $-0 06-03 05:04
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31? Yes -16 $-2 10¢ $-2 +$0 06-03 05:04
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? No -2 $-1 86¢ $-1 $-0 06-09 10:14
Will Valve add Cobblestone to the map pool by August 30? Yes -21 $-2 6¢ $-1 +$0 06-03 12:59
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? Yes -3 $-2 41¢ $-1 +$1 06-09 10:27
Tom Lee charged by December 31? Yes +21 $1 6¢ $1 $-0 05-28 04:44
Will Elon Musk announce Presidential run before 2027? No -1 $-1 96¢ $-1 $-0 06-04 17:37
Ben Pasternak jailed? No -1 $-1 97¢ $-1 $-0 06-04 17:58
U.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by June 30, 2026? No -1 $-1 100¢ $-1 $-0 06-04 17:56
Jonathan Majors as Kang? Yes -5 $-1 16¢ $-1 $-0 06-03 12:59
AI bubble burst in 2026? No -1 $-1 81¢ $-1 $-0 06-04 18:02