Tight-Email — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$413

Unrealized P&L

-$90

Hit rate

27.6%

Resolved

Trades

5,123

lifetime

Volume

$23.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$12

6 positions

First seen

2026-01-03

last 11-03 10:56

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 32 days

Categories

Other

97% 36% -$100

Politics

2% 47% -$32

Tech

0% 0% -$281

Crypto

0% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

65 active days in 12wk • peak 58 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt5t by december 31 169	Yes	-40	$18	12¢	$-5	-$23	08-13 02:31
will anthropics valuation hit high 3pt0t by december 31	Yes	-49	$8	6¢	$-3	-$11	09-04 07:28
will anthropics valuation hit low 600b by december 31 732	Yes	+93	$18	2¢	$2	-$16	09-13 19:32
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?	Yes	-23	$8	5¢	$-1	-$9	10-04 14:11
will anthropics valuation hit high 4pt0t by december 31	Yes	-50	$30	2¢	$-1	-$31	09-13 19:32
Will Apple stop selling MacBook Neo?	Yes	-4	$0	8¢	$-0	$0	06-02 17:46

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	95	$855	1,836	1,876	-40	open	—	08-13 02:31
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	119	$781	2,613	2,662	-49	open	—	09-04 07:28
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?	127	$740	3,718	3,718	+0	open	—	09-13 19:32
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	126	$688	2,352	2,352	+0	open	—	10-04 14:09
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?	74	$533	3,149	3,199	-50	open	—	09-13 19:32
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	73	$519	1,336	1,336	+0	open	—	10-04 14:10
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?	73	$492	1,174	1,174	+0	open	—	09-27 17:35
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?	98	$453	1,631	1,631	+0	open	—	09-17 14:18
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?	47	$428	977	1,000	-23	open	—	10-04 14:11
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	41	$409	839	839	+0	open	—	08-31 13:59
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	64	$385	1,510	1,510	+0	open	—	09-13 19:33
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by December 31?	68	$381	1,318	1,318	+0	open	—	09-17 14:35
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $500B by December 31?	94	$358	2,082	2,082	+0	open	—	09-15 13:01
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?	94	$357	2,538	2,538	+0	open	—	09-13 19:32
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $800B by December 31?	48	$356	1,073	922	+152	open	—	10-05 22:08
Will Lambda's valuation hit (LOW) $6B by December 31?	46	$305	1,049	1,049	+0	open	—	09-20 08:32
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by December 31?	51	$294	819	819	+0	open	—	09-27 18:47
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	8	$294	404	404	+0	No	-$10	05-11 21:05
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $12.5B by December 31?	38	$288	698	698	+0	open	—	10-27 20:20
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $700B by December 31?	27	$286	572	572	+0	open	—	08-17 19:30
Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $100B by December 31?	58	$269	1,311	1,311	+0	open	—	09-17 14:30
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31?	44	$255	945	945	+0	open	—	10-11 18:44
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $25B by December 31?	30	$255	594	594	+0	open	—	09-08 18:19
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?	33	$244	641	641	+0	open	—	10-27 20:20
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	22	$243	305	305	+0	open	—	07-23 06:51
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by December 31?	49	$222	1,189	1,189	+0	open	—	10-01 14:39
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $300B by December 31?	58	$221	1,117	1,015	+103	open	—	10-30 10:25
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $150B by December 31?	28	$217	446	446	+0	open	—	08-28 17:12
Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	61	$212	899	898	+0	open	—	10-27 20:17
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $225B by December 31?	32	$212	506	506	+0	open	—	07-23 00:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-03 10:56:07	Will Baidu have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	150	4¢	$6	0x09a13c…
10-30 10:25:03	Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $300B by December 31?	Yes	SELL	48	2¢	$1	0x1c2a1a…
10-29 17:37:08	Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	38	13¢	$5	0xa04222…
10-29 17:05:01	Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	13¢	$0	0xbf77cb…
10-29 14:20:26	Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	13¢	$2	0x654205…
10-29 03:22:47	Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	14¢	$0	0x969f02…
10-28 15:06:23	Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x39f2bd…
10-27 20:20:50	Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $12.5B by December 31?	Yes	SELL	83	1¢	$1	0xc4e9db…
10-27 20:20:14	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?	Yes	SELL	50	5¢	$2	0xdd379a…
10-27 20:18:51	Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	116	4¢	$5	0x22e911…
10-27 20:18:44	Will Microsoft have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	4¢	$2	0xcc11af…
10-27 20:18:30	Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	97	4¢	$4	0xfdf922…
10-27 20:17:38	Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	128	5¢	$6	0xb12412…
10-27 20:17:17	Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	11¢	$4	0x8cba38…
10-26 08:33:30	Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	10¢	$0	0x6b7363…
10-25 15:41:27	Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	10¢	$2	0x107bbf…
10-23 23:02:24	Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	8¢	$2	0x0edbaf…
10-23 23:02:06	Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	8¢	$1	0xb46538…
10-23 23:01:42	Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	48	8¢	$4	0xee3030…
10-23 19:28:44	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?	Yes	BUY	41	5¢	$2	0x371382…
10-23 19:28:44	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?	Yes	BUY	9	5¢	$0	0x0c03bf…
10-22 02:57:26	Will Baidu have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0xfc64f8…
10-22 02:34:27	Will Baidu have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	4¢	$1	0xee5638…
10-20 21:26:44	Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	5¢	$2	0x7c6aa7…
10-20 20:17:38	Will ByteDance's valuation hit (LOW) $500B by December 31?	Yes	SELL	4	6¢	$0	0xb65ded…
10-20 09:37:06	Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	8¢	$0	0x89cea3…
10-20 09:18:09	Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	8¢	$1	0x05ad84…
10-20 09:17:48	Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	8¢	$1	0x5cab2b…
10-20 07:45:02	Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	8¢	$1	0x15d917…
10-20 07:31:01	Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	8¢	$1	0xc7b656…
10-20 07:15:02	Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	8¢	$1	0x3e72ec…
10-20 06:57:13	Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	8¢	$0	0x2ecefa…
10-13 19:40:03	Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	17	13¢	$2	0x23c00b…
10-13 18:15:04	Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	9¢	$2	0x68b66f…
10-12 14:42:44	Will Baidu have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	5¢	$2	0x2d66f9…
10-12 10:52:35	Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0xc1c97b…
10-12 01:20:15	Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	13¢	$0	0xaedf3b…
10-11 18:46:03	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?	Yes	SELL	50	13¢	$6	0xb03e93…
10-11 18:45:55	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	200	1¢	$2	0xed4246…
10-11 18:44:52	Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31?	Yes	SELL	153	1¢	$1	0xa6e583…
10-11 18:44:37	Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	53	1¢	$1	0xda424c…
10-11 18:44:01	Will ByteDance have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	1¢	$1	0xe8c8d5…
10-11 18:43:49	Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	76	2¢	$2	0x367c01…
10-11 18:43:36	Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	141	2¢	$3	0xa28734…
10-11 18:43:24	Will Amazon have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	46	2¢	$1	0xa7f70d…
10-11 18:43:13	Will Meituan have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	80	2¢	$2	0xe7e674…
10-11 18:41:46	Will Baidu have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	5¢	$2	0xf698fd…
10-11 18:40:49	Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	9¢	$2	0x2fe62c…
10-11 18:40:12	Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	35	8¢	$3	0xde2714…
10-11 18:40:06	Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	35	8¢	$3	0xd54e5f…
10-11 18:35:57	Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	12¢	$2	0x1b8603…
10-11 18:26:39	Will ByteDance's valuation hit (LOW) $500B by December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	4¢	$2	0x89705f…
10-11 02:25:36	Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	8¢	$1	0xae01fd…
10-09 09:44:58	Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0x7df58a…
10-09 09:44:52	Will Baidu have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0x886ee9…
10-09 09:44:37	Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0x1703ff…
10-08 16:59:24	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?	Yes	SELL	57	11¢	$6	0x1bd0f1…
10-07 07:26:53	Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	2¢	$0	0xfd2a0a…
10-07 07:26:39	Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0x20d853…
10-07 07:26:21	Will Meituan have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	3¢	$1	0x1ee069…
10-06 22:44:11	Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	9¢	$1	0x84baa9…
10-06 20:30:09	Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	9¢	$1	0x715d56…
10-06 19:46:32	Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0x81d1b0…
10-05 22:08:52	Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $800B by December 31?	Yes	BUY	52	5¢	$3	0x10dd95…
10-05 21:19:07	Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0x6ac3bc…
10-05 16:04:35	Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0xf6f852…
10-05 07:23:43	Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	2¢	$0	0x94ae7c…
10-05 07:23:41	Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	2¢	$0	0x9fb454…
10-04 19:36:16	Will ByteDance's valuation hit (LOW) $500B by December 31?	Yes	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0x3b1a51…
10-04 19:36:05	Will ByteDance's valuation hit (LOW) $500B by December 31?	Yes	SELL	30	6¢	$2	0x5bb053…
10-04 19:32:16	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	9¢	$4	0x45db94…
10-04 19:28:05	Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	16¢	$3	0x10bd28…
10-04 19:27:49	Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	7¢	$1	0xee8260…
10-04 14:19:58	Will Microsoft have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	5¢	$2	0x37fe51…
10-04 14:13:11	Will Glean's valuation hit (HIGH) $10B by December 31?	Yes	SELL	50	14¢	$7	0x26cfb9…
10-04 14:11:56	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x06e268…
10-04 14:11:44	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?	Yes	SELL	117	7¢	$8	0x488252…
10-04 14:10:14	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	7¢	$7	0x9fedde…
10-04 14:09:43	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	91	6¢	$6	0x4488b4…
10-04 11:19:01	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?	Yes	SELL	33	9¢	$3	0x129702…
10-04 09:27:55	Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	3¢	$1	0x5a368d…
10-04 07:26:22	Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0x2e27fd…
10-04 01:47:10	Will Glean's valuation hit (HIGH) $10B by December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	9¢	$4	0x98f3f3…
10-03 23:07:41	Will Microsoft have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	55	5¢	$3	0xc9672c…
10-03 16:08:05	Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0x01c92d…
10-03 16:05:41	Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x97ff3c…
10-03 15:09:02	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?	Yes	BUY	47	9¢	$4	0xd66d07…
10-03 15:06:41	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	7¢	$4	0x926abd…
10-03 14:11:51	Will Glean's valuation hit (HIGH) $10B by December 31?	Yes	SELL	50	14¢	$7	0xc45139…
10-03 04:03:50	Will Revolut's valuation hit (LOW) $75B by December 31?	Yes	SELL	80	4¢	$3	0xa945bf…
10-02 20:17:02	Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	47	5¢	$2	0x8667ea…
10-02 04:55:30	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	37	13¢	$5	0xc4d83f…
10-02 04:55:21	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	13	13¢	$2	0x43d447…
10-02 03:28:35	Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x9fdda6…
10-01 23:35:47	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?	Yes	SELL	86	12¢	$10	0x25b03f…
10-01 19:15:44	Will ByteDance's valuation hit (LOW) $500B by December 31?	Yes	BUY	50	9¢	$4	0xe4f1c8…
10-01 17:55:20	Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	11¢	$0	0x326774…
10-01 17:00:53	Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $12.5B by December 31?	Yes	SELL	9	4¢	$0	0x07fc88…
10-01 14:40:33	Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $12.5B by December 31?	Yes	SELL	8	3¢	$0	0x030ef7…
10-01 14:39:41	Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by December 31?	Yes	SELL	151	6¢	$9	0xee3343…