Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
open
Total volume
$1,642
Trades
69
Unique wallets
19
Liquidity
$2,188
Latest YES mid
6¢
Latest NO mid
94¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-06-02
last 07-17 10:26
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 4 | $23 | $32 | $9 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 9 | $17 | $940 | $923 |
| 🐟 Fish | 4 | $79 | $5 | +$75 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 2 | $2 | $59 | $57 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏆 Top 5% | 3 | $16 | — | +$16 |
| Median | 1 | — | — | +— |
| Below median | 3 | $45 | $23 | +$22 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 2 | $7 | — | +$7 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 4 | $3 | $911 | $908 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 2 | $10 | $32 | $22 |
| unranked | 4 | $40 | $69 | $29 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Productive-Brooch 0x34af…bd55 | No | +594 | $543 | $1,067 | 5 | 07-14 12:19 |
| Haunting-Rubric 0xdb40…3612 | Yes | +169 | $11 | $14 | 4 | 07-17 10:26 |
| Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | +125 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 07-07 09:57 |
| Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | +100 | $11 | $66 | 11 | 07-10 19:20 |
| Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | +96 | $11 | $70 | 17 | 07-14 12:19 |
| Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | Yes | +60 | $4 | $4 | 3 | 07-09 08:56 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | +40 | $3 | $3 | 2 | 07-08 18:33 |
| Straight-Hunting 0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | +40 | $3 | $3 | 2 | 07-17 10:26 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | +40 | $36 | $36 | 3 | 06-17 09:53 |
| Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | No | +20 | $18 | $18 | 2 | 06-02 08:17 |
| Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | +19 | $2 | $5 | 4 | 07-15 16:23 |
| (anonymous) 0xe215…1c22 | Yes | +17 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-30 10:40 |
| (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | +5 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 07-08 19:38 |
| Calculating-Island 0x99f0…649f | No | +5 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-02 08:16 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-17 10:26:37 | Haunting-Rubric 0xdb40…3612 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 7¢ | $1 | 0x993a76… |
| 07-17 10:26:37 | Straight-Hunting 0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 7¢ | $1 | 0x993a76… |
| 07-15 16:23:05 | Ripe-Pod 0xd038…3142 | No | SELL | 2 | 93¢ | $2 | 0x5f3474… |
| 07-15 16:23:05 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | SELL | 2 | 7¢ | $0 | 0x5f3474… |
| 07-14 12:19:52 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | SELL | 150 | 6¢ | $9 | 0x6372bc… |
| 07-14 12:19:52 | Productive-Brooch 0x34af…bd55 | No | SELL | 150 | 94¢ | $141 | 0x6372bc… |
| 07-10 19:20:43 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | SELL | 100 | 6¢ | $6 | 0xa0d63c… |
| 07-10 19:20:43 | Productive-Brooch 0x34af…bd55 | No | SELL | 100 | 94¢ | $94 | 0xa0d63c… |
| 07-09 08:56:01 | Productive-Brooch 0x34af…bd55 | No | SELL | 28 | 94¢ | $27 | 0x050e6c… |
| 07-09 08:56:01 | Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | Yes | BUY | 20 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x050e6c… |
| 07-09 08:56:01 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | SELL | 148 | 6¢ | $9 | 0x050e6c… |
| 07-09 08:56:01 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | BUY | 100 | 6¢ | $6 | 0x050e6c… |
| 07-08 19:38:23 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | BUY | 100 | 6¢ | $6 | 0x11902c… |
| 07-08 19:38:23 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | SELL | 200 | 6¢ | $12 | 0x11902c… |
| 07-08 19:38:23 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | BUY | 5 | 6¢ | $0 | 0x11902c… |
| 07-08 19:38:23 | Haunting-Rubric 0xdb40…3612 | Yes | BUY | 95 | 6¢ | $6 | 0x11902c… |
| 07-08 18:33:16 | Productive-Brooch 0x34af…bd55 | No | BUY | 251 | 93¢ | $233 | 0xbba155… |
| 07-08 18:33:16 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | BUY | 20 | 7¢ | $1 | 0xbba155… |
| 07-08 18:33:16 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | BUY | 21 | 7¢ | $1 | 0xbba155… |
| 07-08 18:33:16 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | BUY | 40 | 7¢ | $3 | 0xbba155… |
| 07-08 18:33:16 | Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | Yes | BUY | 20 | 7¢ | $1 | 0xbba155… |
| 07-08 18:33:16 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | BUY | 150 | 7¢ | $11 | 0xbba155… |
| 07-07 21:14:25 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | SELL | 21 | 7¢ | $1 | 0xb6e064… |
| 07-07 21:14:25 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | BUY | 21 | 7¢ | $1 | 0xb6e064… |
| 07-07 11:39:29 | Haunting-Rubric 0xdb40…3612 | Yes | BUY | 44 | 7¢ | $3 | 0x164cd5… |
| 07-07 11:39:29 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | SELL | 44 | 7¢ | $3 | 0x164cd5… |
| 07-07 09:57:32 | Wilted-Hurdle 0xb31b…b140 | Yes | SELL | 50 | 7¢ | $4 | 0xb48975… |
| 07-07 09:57:32 | Haunting-Rubric 0xdb40…3612 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 7¢ | $4 | 0xb48975… |
| 07-07 09:57:29 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | BUY | 125 | 8¢ | $10 | 0x8b855d… |
| 07-07 09:57:29 | Tangible-Fuel 0x6f67…102c | No | SELL | 35 | 92¢ | $32 | 0x8b855d… |
| 07-07 09:57:29 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | BUY | 20 | 8¢ | $2 | 0x8b855d… |
| 07-07 09:57:29 | Straight-Hunting 0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 8¢ | $2 | 0x8b855d… |
| 07-07 09:57:29 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | BUY | 73 | 8¢ | $6 | 0x8b855d… |
| 07-07 09:57:29 | Wilted-Hurdle 0xb31b…b140 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 8¢ | $4 | 0x8b855d… |
| 07-07 09:57:29 | Productive-Brooch 0x34af…bd55 | No | BUY | 621 | 92¢ | $571 | 0x8b855d… |
| 07-07 09:57:29 | Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | Yes | BUY | 20 | 8¢ | $2 | 0x8b855d… |
| 07-07 09:57:29 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | BUY | 150 | 8¢ | $12 | 0x8b855d… |
| 07-07 09:57:29 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | BUY | 21 | 8¢ | $2 | 0x8b855d… |
| 07-06 20:28:10 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | SELL | 11 | 9¢ | $1 | 0x66fb7a… |
| 07-06 20:28:10 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | BUY | 11 | 9¢ | $1 | 0x66fb7a… |
| 06-30 10:40:19 | (anonymous) 0xe215…1c22 | Yes | BUY | 17 | 9¢ | $2 | 0xcee01d… |
| 06-30 10:40:19 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | SELL | 17 | 9¢ | $2 | 0xcee01d… |
| 06-17 09:53:02 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | BUY | 20 | 91¢ | $18 | 0x3d6685… |
| 06-17 09:53:02 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | BUY | 56 | 9¢ | $5 | 0x3d6685… |
| 06-17 09:53:02 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 9¢ | $0 | 0x3d6685… |
| 06-17 09:43:01 | (anonymous) 0x6235…df76 | No | SELL | 64 | 91¢ | $58 | 0x7ac607… |
| 06-17 09:43:01 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | SELL | 22 | 9¢ | $2 | 0x7ac607… |
| 06-17 09:43:01 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | SELL | 42 | 9¢ | $4 | 0x7ac607… |
| 06-12 04:59:36 | (anonymous) 0x6235…df76 | No | BUY | 64 | 92¢ | $59 | 0x8ee029… |
| 06-12 04:59:36 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | BUY | 64 | 8¢ | $5 | 0x8ee029… |
| 06-11 09:27:28 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | BUY | 9 | 91¢ | $8 | 0x442b52… |
| 06-11 09:27:28 | Pointless-Casket 0x081a…66d0 | No | SELL | 22 | 91¢ | $20 | 0x442b52… |
| 06-11 09:27:28 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | SELL | 13 | 9¢ | $1 | 0x442b52… |
| 06-11 09:26:24 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | BUY | 11 | 91¢ | $10 | 0xb2d69a… |
| 06-11 09:26:24 | Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse 0xe457…5ab3 | No | SELL | 11 | 91¢ | $10 | 0xb2d69a… |
| 06-11 09:26:19 | Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse 0xe457…5ab3 | No | BUY | 11 | 91¢ | $10 | 0xf39040… |
| 06-11 09:26:19 | Pointless-Casket 0x081a…66d0 | No | BUY | 22 | 91¢ | $20 | 0xf39040… |
| 06-11 09:26:19 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | BUY | 33 | 9¢ | $3 | 0xf39040… |
| 06-11 08:32:46 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | BUY | 56 | 9¢ | $5 | 0x578c63… |
| 06-11 08:32:46 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | SELL | 56 | 9¢ | $5 | 0x578c63… |
| 06-02 08:17:17 | Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | No | BUY | 15 | 91¢ | $14 | 0xa1af74… |
| 06-02 08:17:17 | Pointless-Casket 0x081a…66d0 | No | SELL | 50 | 91¢ | $46 | 0xa1af74… |
| 06-02 08:17:17 | Tangible-Fuel 0x6f67…102c | No | BUY | 35 | 91¢ | $32 | 0xa1af74… |
| 06-02 08:17:09 | Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | No | BUY | 5 | 91¢ | $5 | 0x3aa523… |
| 06-02 08:17:09 | Strong-Visual 0x168f…9e00 | No | SELL | 5 | 91¢ | $5 | 0x3aa523… |
| 06-02 08:16:41 | Pointless-Casket 0x081a…66d0 | No | BUY | 50 | 91¢ | $46 | 0x53fabb… |
| 06-02 08:16:41 | Strong-Visual 0x168f…9e00 | No | BUY | 5 | 91¢ | $5 | 0x53fabb… |
| 06-02 08:16:41 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | BUY | 75 | 9¢ | $7 | 0x53fabb… |
| 06-02 08:16:41 | Calculating-Island 0x99f0…649f | No | BUY | 5 | 91¢ | $5 | 0x53fabb… |