Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
open
Total volume
$409
Trades
29
Unique wallets
11
Liquidity
$2,188
Latest YES mid
8¢
Latest NO mid
92¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-06-02
last 06-30 10:40
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 1 | — | $32 | $32 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 4 | — | $125 | $125 |
| 🐟 Fish | 3 | $15 | $15 | +$0 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 3 | $12 | $59 | $47 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below median | 3 | $15 | $23 | $8 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 3 | — | $106 | $106 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 1 | — | $32 | $32 |
| unranked | 4 | $12 | $69 | $58 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | +56 | $5 | $15 | 4 | 06-17 09:53 |
| Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | +42 | $3 | $27 | 8 | 06-30 10:40 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | +40 | $36 | $36 | 3 | 06-17 09:53 |
| Tangible-Fuel 0x6f67…102c | No | +35 | $32 | $32 | 1 | 06-02 08:17 |
| Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | No | +20 | $18 | $18 | 2 | 06-02 08:17 |
| (anonymous) 0xe215…1c22 | Yes | +17 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-30 10:40 |
| Calculating-Island 0x99f0…649f | No | +5 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-02 08:16 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-30 10:40:19 | (anonymous) 0xe215…1c22 | Yes | BUY | 17 | 9¢ | $2 | 0xcee01d… |
| 06-30 10:40:19 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | SELL | 17 | 9¢ | $2 | 0xcee01d… |
| 06-17 09:53:02 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | BUY | 56 | 9¢ | $5 | 0x3d6685… |
| 06-17 09:53:02 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 9¢ | $0 | 0x3d6685… |
| 06-17 09:53:02 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | BUY | 20 | 91¢ | $18 | 0x3d6685… |
| 06-17 09:43:01 | (anonymous) 0x6235…df76 | No | SELL | 64 | 91¢ | $58 | 0x7ac607… |
| 06-17 09:43:01 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | SELL | 22 | 9¢ | $2 | 0x7ac607… |
| 06-17 09:43:01 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | SELL | 42 | 9¢ | $4 | 0x7ac607… |
| 06-12 04:59:36 | (anonymous) 0x6235…df76 | No | BUY | 64 | 92¢ | $59 | 0x8ee029… |
| 06-12 04:59:36 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | BUY | 64 | 8¢ | $5 | 0x8ee029… |
| 06-11 09:27:28 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | BUY | 9 | 91¢ | $8 | 0x442b52… |
| 06-11 09:27:28 | Pointless-Casket 0x081a…66d0 | No | SELL | 22 | 91¢ | $20 | 0x442b52… |
| 06-11 09:27:28 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | SELL | 13 | 9¢ | $1 | 0x442b52… |
| 06-11 09:26:24 | Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse 0xe457…5ab3 | No | SELL | 11 | 91¢ | $10 | 0xb2d69a… |
| 06-11 09:26:24 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | BUY | 11 | 91¢ | $10 | 0xb2d69a… |
| 06-11 09:26:19 | Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse 0xe457…5ab3 | No | BUY | 11 | 91¢ | $10 | 0xf39040… |
| 06-11 09:26:19 | Pointless-Casket 0x081a…66d0 | No | BUY | 22 | 91¢ | $20 | 0xf39040… |
| 06-11 09:26:19 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | BUY | 33 | 9¢ | $3 | 0xf39040… |
| 06-11 08:32:46 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | SELL | 56 | 9¢ | $5 | 0x578c63… |
| 06-11 08:32:46 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | BUY | 56 | 9¢ | $5 | 0x578c63… |
| 06-02 08:17:17 | Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | No | BUY | 15 | 91¢ | $14 | 0xa1af74… |
| 06-02 08:17:17 | Pointless-Casket 0x081a…66d0 | No | SELL | 50 | 91¢ | $46 | 0xa1af74… |
| 06-02 08:17:17 | Tangible-Fuel 0x6f67…102c | No | BUY | 35 | 91¢ | $32 | 0xa1af74… |
| 06-02 08:17:09 | Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | No | BUY | 5 | 91¢ | $5 | 0x3aa523… |
| 06-02 08:17:09 | Strong-Visual 0x168f…9e00 | No | SELL | 5 | 91¢ | $5 | 0x3aa523… |
| 06-02 08:16:41 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | BUY | 75 | 9¢ | $7 | 0x53fabb… |
| 06-02 08:16:41 | Calculating-Island 0x99f0…649f | No | BUY | 5 | 91¢ | $5 | 0x53fabb… |
| 06-02 08:16:41 | Pointless-Casket 0x081a…66d0 | No | BUY | 50 | 91¢ | $46 | 0x53fabb… |
| 06-02 08:16:41 | Strong-Visual 0x168f…9e00 | No | BUY | 5 | 91¢ | $5 | 0x53fabb… |