Realized P&L
-$511
Unrealized P&L
-$67
Hit rate
10.4%
Resolved
115
Trades
24,818
lifetime
Volume
$806.3K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$32
Open exposure
$468
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-29
last 07-01 00:03
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 18 days
Categories
Other
71% 6% $-373
Sports
13% 33% $-13
Politics
11% 17% $-100
Crypto
3%
Tech
1% 0% $-12
Pop-Culture
0% 0% $-13
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 582 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Fed rate hike in 2026? No +201 $129 46¢ $91 $-37 06-19 00:30
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Yes +100 $60 72¢ $72 +$12 06-27 01:13
Will Jean Castex be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? No +35 $32 93¢ $32 +$1 05-28 20:45
Will Lebanon join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No +35 $30 76¢ $26 $-4 05-28 22:59
Will Tuyo launch a token by September 30, 2026? No +34 $28 78¢ $26 $-2 06-01 18:16
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30? No +22 $21 100¢ $22 +$1 05-30 08:52
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.25% or lower before 2027? No +22 $21 96¢ $21 +$0 05-31 15:20
Will Fabien Roussel be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes -30 $-15 68¢ $-21 $-5 06-14 22:09
Will OpenAI announce a watch in 2026? Yes -100 $-12 18¢ $-18 $-5 05-31 17:38
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B? Yes +20 $17 83¢ $17 $-0 06-11 04:49
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026? Yes +60 $16 28¢ $16 +$1 06-25 19:49
Will Russia capture Prymorske by December 31, 2026? Yes -44 $-15 33¢ $-15 $-0 06-26 10:02
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes +71 $13 18¢ $12 $-0 06-13 23:34
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? Yes +35 $14 31¢ $11 $-4 06-13 13:43
Amazon 2026 capex above $200B? No -40 $-18 23¢ $-9 +$9 06-10 12:43
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B? No -38 $-4 17¢ $-6 $-2 06-15 12:38
Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027? Yes -45 $-2 14¢ $-6 $-4 06-16 09:11
Hugh Jackman as Wolverine? No +40 $7 16¢ $6 $-1 06-14 18:38
Will Frontier Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31? Yes +73 $13 $5 $-8 05-31 20:19
Will Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +8 $4 52¢ $4 +$1 05-28 05:14
Will Karol G perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? Yes -55 $-2 $-4 $-2 06-14 18:44
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? Yes -21 $-2 18¢ $-4 $-1 06-13 18:30
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Yes +50 $6 $3 $-2 06-01 20:30
Will Russia capture Prymorske by September 30, 2026? Yes -30 $-1 11¢ $-3 $-2 06-19 13:35
Deel IPO before 2027? Yes -65 $-3 $-3 $-0 06-17 02:48
Will OpenAI acquire Pinterest in 2026? Yes +70 $5 $3 $-2 05-30 07:45
Will Laurent Wauquiez be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? No +3 $4 96¢ $3 $-1 06-21 23:07
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? Yes -29 $-2 $-2 $-1 06-15 06:39
Will Azerbaijan join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes -20 $3 10¢ $-2 $-5 06-09 02:19
US strike on Colombia by December 31? Yes -8 $-0 20¢ $-2 $-1 06-16 02:10