Calculating-Island — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$0

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

88.7%

Resolved

Trades

4,885

lifetime

Volume

$72.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$15

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-07

last 08-12 21:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Other

45% 100% +$1

Politics

37% 67% +$11

Crypto

16% 33% $-12

Tech

1% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

68 active days in 12wk • peak 123 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	253	$5.1K	4,794	4,178	+617	open	—	06-01 13:21
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	142	$3.6K	3,458	2,984	+475	open	—	03-07 13:42
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	130	$2.6K	4,686	3,049	+1,637	open	—	08-11 19:29
will russia enter druzkhivka by january 31	39	$2.2K	1,130	1,141	-11	open	—	01-31 21:42
epl ars sun 2026 02 07 ars	20	$2.2K	6,337	2,435	+3,903	open	—	02-07 15:47
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	126	$2.0K	2,430	3,419	-989	open	—	06-01 14:17
will russia capture all of stepnohirsk by january 31 2026 147	136	$1.8K	1,068	907	+162	open	—	01-31 04:24
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	40	$1.8K	1,372	983	+389	open	—	03-27 14:45
epl tot mac 2026 02 01 tot	8	$1.7K	1,294	514	+780	open	—	02-01 16:42
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	49	$1.6K	862	1,022	-161	open	—	03-30 00:53
will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	51	$1.5K	1,013	859	+155	open	—	03-23 15:04
0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	87	$1.4K	2,351	2,295	+57	open	—	08-04 15:28
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	33	$1.3K	1,057	966	+91	open	—	02-28 19:34
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	75	$1.3K	830	823	+7	open	—	07-01 12:14
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	59	$1.2K	927	848	+79	open	—	03-08 21:18
will axiom be accused of insider trading	39	$1.1K	1,080	720	+360	open	—	02-26 13:08
will russia capture lyman by march 31 2026 494	73	$1.1K	1,097	1,182	-85	open	—	01-30 15:55
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	57	$1.0K	1,841	1,571	+270	open	—	04-03 20:00
will bitcoin dip to 60000 in february 694	24	$1.0K	508	631	-123	open	—	02-27 11:43
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	65	$856	1,005	886	+119	open	—	04-21 23:57
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	36	$760	840	727	+113	open	—	03-23 13:31
megaeth market cap fdv 1b one day after launch gj9e 189 291 824 352	3	$712	800	0	+800	open	—	04-29 10:58
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	16	$695	481	582	-101	open	—	04-20 16:52
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	37	$689	706	702	+4	open	—	04-07 22:54
will company b be accused of insider trading	40	$681	665	746	-81	open	—	02-25 18:18
russia x ukraine ceasefire by february 28 2026	58	$670	276	442	-166	open	—	01-31 12:57
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by march 13	23	$662	294	511	-217	open	—	03-12 13:22
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	17	$620	400	400	+0	open	—	07-12 14:49
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	37	$611	944	857	+87	open	—	04-24 11:18
Iran leadership change by April 30?	29	$587	516	424	+93	open	—	04-23 13:59

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-13 03:17:48	nato x russia military clash by october 31 2026	No	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0x64c13d…
08-13 03:17:24	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0x30ebbe…
08-13 03:17:19	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0xf0ace2…
08-13 03:17:19	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0x0c8ddd…
08-13 03:17:09	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x2d45b1…
08-13 03:08:51	nato x russia military clash by october 31 2026	No	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xb911ea…
08-12 21:59:18	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	No	SELL	50	7¢	$3	0xf2ca9e…
08-12 21:55:37	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	No	BUY	5	12¢	$1	0xbbbc4f…
08-12 21:55:15	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	No	BUY	2	13¢	$0	0x41eec6…
08-12 21:51:37	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 13 20260807213124702	No	SELL	72	14¢	$10	0xeb82bb…
08-12 21:51:21	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	No	SELL	81	14¢	$11	0x9f1b57…
08-12 21:41:43	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	No	BUY	10	13¢	$1	0xf35872…
08-12 21:36:46	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	No	BUY	10	14¢	$1	0x6aea65…
08-12 21:36:45	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	No	BUY	10	14¢	$1	0xbb5137…
08-12 21:34:24	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	No	BUY	3	13¢	$0	0xd262a1…
08-12 21:33:09	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 13 20260807213124702	No	SELL	8	14¢	$1	0xeb9b46…
08-12 21:28:07	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	No	BUY	15	14¢	$2	0xce77fc…
08-12 21:28:07	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	No	BUY	15	14¢	$2	0xc0bce3…
08-12 21:28:07	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	No	BUY	15	13¢	$2	0x3ed651…
08-12 21:27:16	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	6	67¢	$4	0x9adffa…
08-12 21:26:40	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 13 20260807213124702	No	SELL	44	14¢	$6	0x145404…
08-12 21:25:12	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 13 20260807213124702	No	BUY	30	11¢	$3	0x2d9b48…
08-12 21:24:43	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 13 20260807213124702	No	BUY	4	12¢	$0	0x43df8b…
08-12 21:24:30	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	SELL	275	95¢	$261	0x907612…
08-12 21:24:28	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 13 20260807213124702	No	BUY	30	13¢	$4	0x899fb2…
08-12 21:24:12	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 13 20260807213124702	No	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xbf8073…
08-12 21:24:10	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 13 20260807213124702	No	BUY	23	12¢	$3	0xd53544…
08-12 21:24:10	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 13 20260807213124702	No	BUY	58	11¢	$6	0x8940cb…
08-12 21:24:10	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 13 20260807213124702	No	BUY	44	12¢	$5	0x6230f2…
08-12 21:24:09	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	7	67¢	$4	0x804290…
08-12 21:24:03	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	No	BUY	30	13¢	$4	0x4b8482…
08-12 21:24:01	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 13 20260807213124702	No	BUY	9	13¢	$1	0x99c199…
08-12 21:24:01	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 13 20260807213124702	No	BUY	57	13¢	$8	0x3ffc3f…
08-12 21:23:57	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	No	BUY	30	15¢	$4	0xca5f40…
08-12 21:23:42	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 13 20260807213124702	No	BUY	27	14¢	$4	0xeca79e…
08-12 21:23:42	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 13 20260807213124702	No	BUY	27	12¢	$3	0x399444…
08-12 21:23:31	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 13 20260807213124702	No	BUY	67	11¢	$8	0xc66aa2…
08-12 21:23:04	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 13 20260807213124702	No	BUY	67	12¢	$8	0xd82090…
08-12 21:21:52	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	No	BUY	68	16¢	$11	0x8b5f3c…
08-12 21:21:51	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	No	BUY	68	16¢	$11	0xbb2f9c…
08-12 21:21:51	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	No	BUY	68	16¢	$11	0xb9e5d7…
08-12 21:21:45	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 13 20260807213124702	No	BUY	60	13¢	$8	0x776ae7…
08-12 21:21:43	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	No	BUY	23	16¢	$4	0x4440f6…
08-12 21:21:12	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 13 20260807213124702	No	BUY	6	13¢	$1	0x4550f0…
08-12 21:19:24	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	No	BUY	23	17¢	$4	0xe1260b…
08-12 21:19:21	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	No	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xdb6798…
08-12 17:33:00	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	Yes	SELL	100	22¢	$22	0x1f810f…
08-12 17:31:18	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	Yes	BUY	58	17¢	$10	0xaa68a3…
08-12 17:31:13	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	Yes	BUY	58	19¢	$11	0xc50b14…
08-12 17:31:13	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	Yes	BUY	58	18¢	$11	0xbb5656…
08-12 17:30:25	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	Yes	BUY	52	17¢	$9	0xc26f1d…
08-12 17:30:25	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	Yes	BUY	52	17¢	$9	0xb418f6…
08-12 17:30:25	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 12 20260807213124701	Yes	BUY	52	17¢	$9	0x4bc49a…
08-12 16:09:54	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	SELL	48	46¢	$22	0x1b14d7…
08-12 16:07:46	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 14 20260807213124703	Yes	BUY	66	25¢	$16	0x534354…
08-12 16:07:43	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 14 20260807213124703	Yes	BUY	30	27¢	$8	0xdf142a…
08-12 16:07:43	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 14 20260807213124703	Yes	BUY	6	27¢	$2	0xdb8e0c…
08-12 16:07:43	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 14 20260807213124703	Yes	BUY	28	27¢	$8	0x756900…
08-12 16:07:39	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 13 20260807213124702	Yes	BUY	9	15¢	$1	0xa8112d…
08-12 16:07:37	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 13 20260807213124702	Yes	BUY	8	15¢	$1	0xb58bc0…
08-12 16:07:33	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 13 20260807213124702	Yes	BUY	35	15¢	$5	0x2b6d0e…
08-12 16:07:28	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 13 20260807213124702	Yes	BUY	62	16¢	$10	0x2f6fb5…
08-12 14:33:55	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0xcd1556…
08-12 14:33:55	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x42e812…
08-12 14:33:54	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	No	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0xc3dff2…
08-12 14:23:04	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	No	BUY	1	41¢	$0	0x42c426…
08-12 14:23:04	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	No	BUY	4	41¢	$2	0x2b6cb7…
08-12 14:23:01	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	No	BUY	4	41¢	$2	0xe6425c…
08-12 14:23:00	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	No	BUY	4	41¢	$2	0x32ae86…
08-12 14:23:00	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	No	BUY	4	41¢	$2	0x309d96…
08-12 14:22:57	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	No	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0xad8faf…
08-12 14:22:55	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	No	BUY	3	41¢	$1	0xa5cdbe…
08-12 14:22:40	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	No	BUY	6	42¢	$3	0x71c273…
08-12 14:22:40	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	No	BUY	6	42¢	$3	0x51bf38…
08-12 13:43:16	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	14	68¢	$9	0xe79394…
08-12 13:43:16	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	14	68¢	$9	0xb7979d…
08-12 13:21:01	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	5	68¢	$4	0xdc0cfb…
08-12 13:21:01	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642 513 584 641 939 632 729	No	BUY	5	68¢	$4	0xc9833c…
08-12 13:02:42	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151 668	No	BUY	40	91¢	$36	0x7fee78…
08-12 09:24:34	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by october 31 20260810151043583	No	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x7b8e2e…
08-12 09:24:30	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by october 31 20260810151043583	No	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0x501165…
08-12 09:24:28	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by october 31 20260810151043583	No	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0xd57c82…
08-12 09:24:28	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by october 31 20260810151043583	No	BUY	10	75¢	$8	0x0b968e…
08-12 09:24:27	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by october 31 20260810151043583	No	BUY	33	76¢	$25	0xe08ad2…
08-11 19:51:57	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by november 30 20260810151158765	No	BUY	73	66¢	$48	0x6b2711…
08-11 19:51:57	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by november 30 20260810151158765	No	BUY	73	66¢	$48	0x55b01c…
08-11 19:51:57	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by november 30 20260810151158765	No	BUY	73	66¢	$48	0x280e70…
08-11 19:51:39	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by november 30 20260810151158765	No	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0x064642…
08-11 19:29:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	5	53¢	$3	0x413dc9…
08-11 18:58:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	9	53¢	$5	0x12f531…
08-11 18:54:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	11	53¢	$6	0x321368…
08-11 18:52:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	2	53¢	$1	0xa6de8f…
08-11 18:52:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	47	53¢	$25	0x09bc38…
08-11 18:52:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	9	53¢	$5	0xab5a71…
08-11 18:52:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	7	53¢	$3	0x901413…
08-11 18:52:51	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	8	53¢	$4	0x729158…
08-11 18:52:51	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	5	53¢	$3	0x292fcd…
08-11 18:12:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	377	53¢	$200	0xf6cb63…
08-11 17:17:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	185	50¢	$93	0x618891…
08-11 17:12:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	185	51¢	$94	0x6288b0…