Calculating-Island — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$0

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

88.7%

Resolved

Trades

3,782

lifetime

Volume

$59.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$16

Open exposure

$103

6 positions

First seen

2026-01-07

last 06-11 08:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Politics

40% 67% +$11

Other

39% 100% +$1

Crypto

19% 33% $-12

Sports

1% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

70 active days in 12wk • peak 123 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	No	+60	$35	74¢	$45	+$10	06-04 17:50
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81	Yes	+103	$39	24¢	$25	$-14	06-03 09:09
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?	No	+89	$10	16¢	$15	+$5	06-04 17:52
Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	No	+10	$9	92¢	$9	+$0	06-02 08:16
Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	No	+5	$5	92¢	$5	+$0	06-02 08:16
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	No	+5	$4	90¢	$5	+$0	06-11 08:31

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	253	$5.1K	4,794	4,178	+617	open	—	06-01 13:21
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	142	$3.6K	3,458	2,984	+475	open	—	03-07 13:42
will russia enter druzkhivka by january 31	39	$2.2K	1,130	1,141	-11	open	—	01-31 21:42
epl ars sun 2026 02 07 ars	20	$2.2K	6,337	2,435	+3,903	open	—	02-07 15:47
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	126	$2.0K	2,430	3,419	-989	open	—	06-01 14:17
will russia capture all of stepnohirsk by january 31 2026 147	136	$1.8K	1,068	907	+162	open	—	01-31 04:24
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	40	$1.8K	1,372	983	+389	open	—	03-27 14:45
epl tot mac 2026 02 01 tot	8	$1.7K	1,294	514	+780	open	—	02-01 16:42
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	49	$1.6K	862	1,022	-161	open	—	03-30 00:53
will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	51	$1.5K	1,013	859	+155	open	—	03-23 15:04
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	33	$1.3K	1,057	966	+91	open	—	02-28 19:34
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	59	$1.2K	927	848	+79	open	—	03-08 21:18
will axiom be accused of insider trading	39	$1.1K	1,080	720	+360	open	—	02-26 13:08
will russia capture lyman by march 31 2026 494	73	$1.1K	1,097	1,182	-85	open	—	01-30 15:55
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	57	$1.0K	1,841	1,571	+270	open	—	04-03 20:00
will bitcoin dip to 60000 in february 694	24	$1.0K	508	631	-123	open	—	02-27 11:43
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	65	$856	1,005	886	+119	open	—	04-21 23:57
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	36	$760	840	727	+113	open	—	03-23 13:31
megaeth market cap fdv 1b one day after launch gj9e 189 291 824 352	3	$712	800	0	+800	open	—	04-29 10:58
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	16	$695	481	582	-101	open	—	04-20 16:52
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	37	$689	706	702	+4	open	—	04-07 22:54
will company b be accused of insider trading	40	$681	665	746	-81	open	—	02-25 18:18
russia x ukraine ceasefire by february 28 2026	58	$670	276	442	-166	open	—	01-31 12:57
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by march 13	23	$662	294	511	-217	open	—	03-12 13:22
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	37	$611	944	857	+87	open	—	04-24 11:18
Iran leadership change by April 30?	29	$587	516	424	+93	open	—	04-23 13:59
trump announces end of military operations against iran by march 31st	20	$583	591	511	+80	open	—	03-24 09:40
Over $6M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale?	28	$571	1,122	1,457	-335	open	—	03-27 02:40
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	7	$568	420	420	+0	open	—	02-20 13:52
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346	35	$559	559	646	-87	open	—	04-10 03:10

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-11 08:31:34	Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	90¢	$4	0xddd749…
06-11 06:24:48	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	7	89¢	$6	0xec9c1c…
06-11 06:24:48	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	7	89¢	$6	0xde160a…
06-11 03:19:49	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	7	89¢	$6	0xbf2066…
06-11 03:19:49	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	BUY	7	89¢	$6	0x89ce11…
06-11 01:21:37	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520	Yes	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0x93c453…
06-11 00:04:54	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520	Yes	BUY	13	90¢	$12	0x5fb30b…
06-11 00:04:03	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1530	Yes	BUY	28	93¢	$26	0x53fe91…
06-09 11:47:39	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520	No	SELL	7	42¢	$3	0xb4e162…
06-09 06:33:16	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520	No	SELL	10	35¢	$4	0x145f3f…
06-09 06:12:15	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520	No	BUY	1	30¢	$0	0x019f82…
06-09 05:51:12	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520	No	BUY	1	30¢	$0	0x251ed7…
06-09 04:33:07	will the next claude mythos model added to the arena leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1520	No	BUY	7	49¢	$3	0x080b70…
06-07 14:46:42	will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase june 2 8	Yes	BUY	37	87¢	$32	0xaa7593…
06-07 14:45:40	will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase june 2 8	Yes	BUY	29	90¢	$26	0x9c8313…
06-07 14:38:45	will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase june 2 8	Yes	BUY	40	94¢	$38	0x41bae7…
06-07 14:32:16	will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase june 2 8	Yes	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0xdde3ae…
06-07 13:56:28	will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase june 2 8	Yes	BUY	45	95¢	$43	0x36ae1c…
06-07 13:55:04	will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase june 2 8	Yes	BUY	96	95¢	$91	0x29a4db…
06-07 13:50:16	will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase june 2 8	Yes	BUY	88	95¢	$83	0x9f66c0…
06-07 13:50:04	will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase june 2 8	Yes	BUY	73	95¢	$69	0xe41f7c…
06-05 23:08:22	will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase june 2 8	Yes	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0x2c65d7…
06-05 14:49:36	will spacex have 14 launches in june 2026	No	BUY	9	61¢	$6	0xdd52f9…
06-05 14:49:36	will spacex have 14 launches in june 2026	No	BUY	9	62¢	$6	0x944818…
06-05 14:49:34	will spacex have exactly 13 launches in june 2026	Yes	BUY	7	17¢	$1	0xd72cf3…
06-05 14:49:34	will spacex have exactly 13 launches in june 2026	Yes	BUY	7	17¢	$1	0x92d525…
06-04 17:52:46	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?	No	BUY	33	11¢	$4	0xe9c247…
06-04 17:52:46	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?	No	BUY	33	11¢	$4	0x39d0aa…
06-04 17:52:16	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?	No	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0xade0c8…
06-04 17:50:21	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	No	BUY	1	58¢	$1	0xfc8ffa…
06-04 17:48:43	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	No	BUY	19	58¢	$11	0xc6b77d…
06-04 17:34:31	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	No	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0x9d2b6c…
06-04 17:34:31	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	No	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0x04f388…
06-04 12:15:34	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?	No	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x7c7c84…
06-04 12:15:34	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?	No	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x263105…
06-03 09:09:12	Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81	Yes	BUY	33	37¢	$12	0x0498d7…
06-03 06:39:53	Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81	Yes	BUY	33	38¢	$12	0xbde4b9…
06-03 05:45:14	Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81	Yes	BUY	33	39¢	$13	0xf5611f…
06-03 05:45:05	Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x27aa87…
06-02 16:30:12	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 5, 2026?	No	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0x2d5b10…
06-02 15:41:32	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	SELL	6	0¢	$0	0x99161b…
06-02 15:28:19	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	SELL	155	0¢	$0	0x8a26ce…
06-02 15:09:30	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	SELL	45	0¢	$0	0xb66b52…
06-02 13:32:03	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	SELL	375	0¢	$1	0xa860f6…
06-02 08:16:41	Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x53fabb…
06-02 08:16:14	Will Moonshot have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	91¢	$9	0x7f5605…
06-02 05:29:23	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	SELL	5	1¢	$0	0x46dcdd…
06-01 16:48:11	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	SELL	53	0¢	$0	0x287796…
06-01 16:46:30	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	SELL	93	0¢	$0	0x79861b…
06-01 16:10:35	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	BUY	5	0¢	$0	0x4d129e…
06-01 15:40:10	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1,150	0¢	$5	0x48e38e…
06-01 15:32:23	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	BUY	11	0¢	$0	0x0934de…
06-01 15:32:18	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	BUY	162	0¢	$1	0x51ae51…
06-01 15:30:10	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	BUY	172	0¢	$1	0x9c09db…
06-01 14:17:17	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	26	34¢	$9	0xad1e4e…
06-01 14:14:53	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	29¢	$2	0xccce2f…
06-01 14:14:53	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	29¢	$2	0x4e8eee…
06-01 14:14:53	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	29¢	$2	0x0700d4…
06-01 14:14:23	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	0	36¢	$0	0x8539cd…
06-01 14:14:23	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	36¢	$2	0x719ad1…
06-01 13:21:31	Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 26-June 1?	No	SELL	207	100¢	$206	0x408727…
06-01 13:21:11	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,069	100¢	$1,068	0x898614…
06-01 13:00:13	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	78	37¢	$29	0x5d2271…
06-01 12:59:56	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	35	36¢	$13	0x5b16b5…
06-01 12:59:52	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	25	36¢	$9	0x93f223…
06-01 12:59:50	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	140	36¢	$50	0x41bfba…
06-01 12:59:24	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	36¢	$72	0x8115c8…
06-01 12:57:23	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	42¢	$84	0x7c388b…
06-01 12:54:46	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	300	25¢	$75	0x82e5d6…
06-01 12:52:56	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	290	22¢	$65	0xf2da0b…
06-01 12:52:54	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	23¢	$46	0x907f4a…
06-01 12:52:54	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	22¢	$2	0x7998f5…
06-01 12:16:16	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	60	16¢	$10	0x2ff866…
06-01 12:12:06	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	222	20¢	$44	0xdc80f9…
06-01 12:12:06	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	60	17¢	$10	0x763e69…
06-01 12:12:00	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	46	18¢	$8	0xf19b3c…
06-01 12:12:00	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	14	18¢	$3	0xe0ee64…
06-01 12:11:24	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	43	19¢	$8	0xe13ff4…
06-01 12:11:24	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	43	19¢	$8	0x6fe084…
06-01 12:11:24	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	43	22¢	$10	0x456d39…
06-01 12:11:18	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	33	18¢	$6	0x9de183…
06-01 12:11:13	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	33	19¢	$6	0x7d94ea…
06-01 12:11:08	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	33	20¢	$7	0xd1bc01…
06-01 12:08:15	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	61	20¢	$12	0xd3f816…
06-01 12:08:13	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	22	20¢	$4	0x39a941…
06-01 12:07:57	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	87	22¢	$19	0x9acd73…
06-01 12:07:57	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	87	22¢	$19	0x960d18…
06-01 12:07:57	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	87	23¢	$20	0x5131b9…
06-01 12:07:26	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	53	25¢	$13	0xa6c369…
06-01 12:07:26	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	53	25¢	$13	0x9774a2…
06-01 12:07:26	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	53	25¢	$13	0x804926…
06-01 12:07:10	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	73	30¢	$22	0xca8204…
06-01 12:07:10	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	73	32¢	$24	0x1f0f22…
06-01 12:06:49	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	33	32¢	$11	0xc8ed0e…
06-01 12:06:49	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	33	34¢	$11	0xbc8169…
06-01 12:05:07	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	58	43¢	$25	0x9659fd…
06-01 12:05:06	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	180	43¢	$77	0xca4f1b…
06-01 12:05:06	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	285	43¢	$123	0xbc4ebc…
06-01 12:04:48	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	38¢	$38	0xe54c11…
06-01 12:04:39	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	40¢	$20	0xc22f09…