Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$22.6K

Unrealized P&L

-$537

Hit rate

1.7%

Resolved

10,329

Trades

113,127

lifetime

Volume

$2.90M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$26

Open exposure

$819

30 positions

First seen

2026-05-11

last 10-27 10:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 153 days

Categories

Other

60% 3% -$16,196

Politics

27% 4% -$4,432

Sports

5% 3% -$727

Tech

4% 3% -$998

Crypto

3% 3% -$206

Pop-Culture

0% 8% -$64

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 2123 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (7) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	+340	$308	88¢	$298	-$10	10-14 20:32
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?	Yes	+321	$320	24¢	$75	-$245	09-30 21:40
will ohio enact a data center moratorium by june 30 2027	Yes	+314	$108	16¢	$49	-$60	09-30 10:15
Will Morgan Wallen be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026?	No	+200	$119	23¢	$46	-$73	08-14 22:28
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Yes	+340	$55	12¢	$43	-$13	10-14 20:18
Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027?	No	+40	$34	95¢	$38	+$4	10-11 22:34
will russia capture all of bilytske by december 31	No	+90	$68	37¢	$33	-$34	07-22 21:11
Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027?	No	+20	$17	96¢	$19	+$2	09-13 10:48
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	+50	$3	36¢	$18	+$15	10-20 18:54
Will Papertrade launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	+20	$5	88¢	$18	+$12	05-31 07:42
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	+400	$50	4¢	$18	-$32	09-12 16:50
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?	Yes	+20	$7	74¢	$15	+$8	08-13 09:13
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	+200	$23	7¢	$14	-$9	08-26 00:58
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T?	Yes	+20	$17	67¢	$13	-$3	09-14 22:37
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	+13	$14	95¢	$12	-$2	09-26 03:32
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?	Yes	+20	$16	57¢	$12	-$5	10-27 05:04
Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026?	No	+12	$7	96¢	$11	+$4	10-26 10:19
will russia capture mala tokmachka by december 31 2026	Yes	+50	$25	20¢	$10	-$15	10-03 17:23
Will Manchester City be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?	Yes	+20	$1	46¢	$9	+$8	09-23 07:10
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?	No	+20	$20	42¢	$9	-$11	10-27 05:04
Will Inter Milan win the 2026-27 Serie A Championship?	No	+20	$14	36¢	$7	-$7	07-13 07:17
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	No	+20	$2	36¢	$7	+$5	08-15 03:24
will openais valuation hit high 1pt5t by december 31 574 287	Yes	+50	$24	14¢	$7	-$17	09-22 06:56
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T?	No	+20	$13	33¢	$7	-$6	09-07 09:03
Will Oura's market cap be between $10B and $12.5B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	+650	$37	1¢	$6	-$30	09-27 06:35
Will the Republican Party win the NC-04 House seat?	Yes	+200	$13	3¢	$6	-$6	08-26 13:54
Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Yes	+90	$11	6¢	$6	-$5	10-26 15:40
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+150	$7	3¢	$5	-$2	09-08 14:21
gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	Yes	+100	$9	4¢	$5	-$5	10-26 20:59
Will Faker win a Finals MVP Award at an international event in 2026?	Yes	+100	$9	4¢	$4	-$5	10-25 01:08

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	78	$10.8K	9,820	9,420	+400	No	-$109	09-27 08:00
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	71	$10.6K	8,200	8,199	+0	Yes	-$76	09-22 00:25
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	66	$10.0K	7,715	7,715	+0	open	—	09-27 00:21
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	60	$9.6K	9,489	9,489	+0	open	—	09-28 07:27
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	111	$9.3K	9,216	9,216	+0	Yes	-$75	09-20 11:02
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	58	$8.4K	9,026	9,026	+0	open	—	09-27 14:59
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	80	$8.4K	8,596	8,596	+0	open	—	09-28 05:52
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	52	$8.2K	8,001	8,001	+0	open	—	10-07 20:12
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	68	$7.7K	7,521	7,521	+0	open	—	09-26 11:09
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	42	$7.7K	6,380	6,380	+0	open	—	10-11 18:42
israel x iran ceasefire continues through september 30	64	$7.7K	7,943	7,943	+0	Yes	-$73	09-26 12:10
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	42	$7.4K	7,074	7,074	+0	open	—	09-27 13:26
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	72	$7.2K	7,813	7,812	+0	No	-$75	09-13 18:48
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	99	$6.8K	6,042	6,042	+0	open	—	09-27 09:03
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	80	$6.8K	5,308	5,307	+0	open	—	09-23 18:09
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	88	$6.8K	6,624	6,624	+0	open	—	09-21 14:01
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	36	$6.7K	5,771	5,771	+0	open	—	09-25 17:23
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	71	$6.7K	6,850	6,850	+0	open	—	09-22 06:35
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	75	$6.5K	6,196	6,196	+0	open	—	09-28 19:32
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	54	$6.5K	6,685	6,685	+0	open	—	09-28 10:12
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	42	$6.4K	6,866	6,866	+0	open	—	09-26 02:41
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	53	$6.4K	6,630	6,630	+0	open	—	09-26 19:42
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	61	$6.3K	6,913	6,713	+200	No	-$12	09-16 12:02
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	62	$6.3K	6,618	6,618	+0	Yes	-$58	09-14 14:17
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	67	$6.2K	4,827	4,827	+0	open	—	10-25 14:01
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	46	$6.2K	6,334	6,334	+0	open	—	09-22 10:26
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	84	$6.2K	6,051	6,051	+0	open	—	09-26 13:48
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	52	$6.1K	5,211	5,211	+0	open	—	09-25 18:54
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	75	$5.9K	4,976	4,976	+0	open	—	10-04 14:10
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	106	$5.9K	7,007	7,007	+0	open	—	09-27 12:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 11:57:45	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MO-07 House election by 35%-40%?	Yes	SELL	5	21¢	$1	0xac5719…
10-27 11:57:26	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MO-07 House election by 35%-40%?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x4ad461…
10-27 11:53:03	Will Anthropic IPO on November 27, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	9¢	$1	0xdec72d…
10-27 11:52:42	Will Anthropic IPO on November 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	10¢	$1	0x8027cd…
10-27 11:48:29	Will Oxford's 2026 Word of the Year contain "maxx"?	Yes	SELL	10	7¢	$1	0x2a9211…
10-27 11:48:15	Will Oxford's 2026 Word of the Year contain "maxx"?	Yes	BUY	10	9¢	$1	0xef4f04…
10-27 11:34:44	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 RI-01 House election by 25%-30%?	Yes	SELL	20	20¢	$4	0xb618bd…
10-27 11:34:36	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 RI-01 House election by 25%-30%?	Yes	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0x9d53f2…
10-27 11:29:35	Will Magomed Ankalaev fight Jiri Prochazka next?	Yes	SELL	20	8¢	$2	0x355edc…
10-27 11:29:33	Will Magomed Ankalaev fight Jiri Prochazka next?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x408ba3…
10-27 11:24:15	Will Puffpaw launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	16¢	$1	0x3a72ef…
10-27 11:23:44	Will Puffpaw launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xa70d87…
10-27 11:20:12	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	SELL	2	52¢	$1	0x0e1b1f…
10-27 11:19:41	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xafbf6a…
10-27 11:13:12	Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?	Yes	SELL	22	2¢	$0	0x587c2d…
10-27 11:13:05	Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?	Yes	BUY	22	2¢	$0	0x496d9a…
10-27 11:08:11	Will the Republican Party win the NY-21 House seat?	No	SELL	11	34¢	$4	0x786935…
10-27 11:08:08	Will the Republican Party win the NY-21 House seat?	No	BUY	11	34¢	$4	0x6cb0e9…
10-27 11:07:38	Will Brock Purdy win the 2026 NFL MVP?	No	SELL	50	83¢	$41	0x5cf2d2…
10-27 11:07:36	Will Brock Purdy win the 2026 NFL MVP?	No	BUY	50	83¢	$42	0xfe0655…
10-27 11:07:02	Will Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?	No	SELL	50	87¢	$43	0x4c8a55…
10-27 11:06:50	Will Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?	No	BUY	50	88¢	$44	0xb08b84…
10-27 11:03:27	Will the New York Rangers make the 2026-27 NHL Playoffs?	Yes	SELL	20	31¢	$6	0x030adb…
10-27 11:03:18	Will the New York Rangers make the 2026-27 NHL Playoffs?	Yes	BUY	20	32¢	$6	0x5fdffa…
10-27 10:59:11	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-10 House election by 75%-80%?	Yes	SELL	20	16¢	$3	0xd48b5a…
10-27 10:59:08	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-10 House election by 75%-80%?	Yes	BUY	19	21¢	$4	0x61b252…
10-27 10:59:05	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-10 House election by 75%-80%?	Yes	BUY	1	21¢	$0	0xcedc56…
10-27 10:58:03	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 North Carolina Senate election by 6%-9%?	No	SELL	50	83¢	$42	0xde0d6d…
10-27 10:51:56	Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 32M tonnes at end of October 2026?	No	SELL	17	5¢	$1	0x320b84…
10-27 10:51:30	Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 32M tonnes at end of October 2026?	No	BUY	0	6¢	$0	0xe17154…
10-27 10:51:26	Will EU emergency diesel stocks be at least 32M tonnes at end of October 2026?	No	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xef82d3…
10-27 10:46:57	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $56 Week of October 26 2026?	No	SELL	20	68¢	$14	0xa59acc…
10-27 10:45:59	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $56 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	20	73¢	$15	0x447c47…
10-27 10:45:18	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in October?	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0x23dc87…
10-27 10:45:11	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in October?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x7553d1…
10-27 10:44:57	Will "The End of Oak Street" be nominated for Best Sound at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	1	81¢	$1	0x9e2db6…
10-27 10:42:54	Will "The End of Oak Street" be nominated for Best Sound at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	49	88¢	$43	0x912d15…
10-27 10:35:53	Will Quentin Johnston have 249.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	Yes	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0x23e94a…
10-27 10:05:45	Will Loretta Lynch be arrested before 2027?	Yes	SELL	61	1¢	$1	0x45af7e…
10-27 10:05:41	Will Loretta Lynch be arrested before 2027?	Yes	BUY	61	2¢	$1	0xe8b6f5…
10-27 10:03:59	Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31?	Yes	SELL	37	3¢	$1	0x39262c…
10-27 10:03:50	Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31?	Yes	BUY	37	3¢	$1	0xdbb091…
10-27 09:57:20	Will Ashton Jeanty have 974.5+ rushing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	No	SELL	20	88¢	$18	0xec41d4…
10-27 09:56:26	Will Ashton Jeanty have 974.5+ rushing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	No	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0x731f2e…
10-27 09:48:50	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-08 House election by 0%-5%?	Yes	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0xe1f21d…
10-27 09:48:47	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-08 House election by 0%-5%?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x6ecf0f…
10-27 09:47:18	Will OpenAI announce a ring in 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	4¢	$2	0x25c415…
10-27 09:46:51	Will OpenAI announce a ring in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0xec6d0a…
10-27 09:46:50	Will OpenAI announce a ring in 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	4¢	$1	0xf40d27…
10-27 09:43:42	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	6¢	$3	0x51a066…
10-27 09:43:41	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	7¢	$3	0x911e9a…
10-27 09:42:39	Lyon curfew effectively lifted by November 7?	No	SELL	100	3¢	$3	0x730443…
10-27 09:42:21	Lyon curfew effectively lifted by November 7?	No	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0x3f66be…
10-27 09:37:45	Will Democrats win Latino men in the midterms?	No	SELL	20	13¢	$3	0x6afbc9…
10-27 09:37:39	Will Democrats win Latino men in the midterms?	No	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0x5ab436…
10-27 09:36:26	Will the Republican Party hold exactly 46 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	20	15¢	$3	0x6d9159…
10-27 09:36:24	Will the Republican Party hold exactly 46 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	20	17¢	$3	0xe9c6fb…
10-27 09:33:08	Will Radomir Saičić win the next Serbia presidential election?	No	SELL	60	29¢	$17	0xb82192…
10-27 09:32:53	Will Radomir Saičić win the next Serbia presidential election?	No	BUY	60	33¢	$20	0xfd3087…
10-27 09:28:05	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	4¢	$0	0x99c569…
10-27 09:28:00	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	Yes	SELL	65	4¢	$3	0xdc7596…
10-27 09:27:59	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	5¢	$0	0x8f665b…
10-27 09:27:54	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	Yes	BUY	65	5¢	$3	0x3a4444…
10-27 09:19:50	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii be between 430,000 and 460,000?	Yes	SELL	60	15¢	$9	0x2d4553…
10-27 09:05:54	Will AC Milan qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League?	Yes	SELL	20	64¢	$13	0x5ec63d…
10-27 09:05:27	Will AC Milan qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League?	Yes	BUY	20	66¢	$13	0x5cb2e5…
10-27 09:05:23	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $49 Week of October 26 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0x1cc8f0…
10-27 09:05:15	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $49 Week of October 26 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0x4c8d0e…
10-27 09:01:57	Israeli airspace closed between Oct. 15 and Oct. 31?	Yes	SELL	89	2¢	$2	0xa2a7d1…
10-27 09:01:56	Israeli airspace closed between Oct. 15 and Oct. 31?	Yes	BUY	89	3¢	$3	0x1b1f5d…
10-27 09:00:56	Gemini Carbon released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	87¢	$44	0x6e54e0…
10-27 08:59:44	Will Çorum F.K. be relegated from the 2026-27 Süper Lig?	No	SELL	20	81¢	$16	0xaeea20…
10-27 08:59:23	Will Çorum F.K. be relegated from the 2026-27 Süper Lig?	No	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0x44df97…
10-27 08:57:42	Will Venezia be relegated from the 2026-27 Serie A?	No	SELL	20	39¢	$8	0x170b1a…
10-27 08:57:26	Will Venezia be relegated from the 2026-27 Serie A?	No	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0x74df04…
10-27 08:56:08	Felix Protocol FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	50	8¢	$4	0x98f2b2…
10-27 08:56:05	Felix Protocol FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	50	9¢	$5	0x07610b…
10-27 08:51:56	Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?	No	SELL	14	86¢	$12	0xd5504f…
10-27 08:51:51	Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?	No	BUY	14	87¢	$12	0x045d86…
10-27 08:41:50	Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	9	30¢	$3	0x01a7e1…
10-27 08:41:48	Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	9	31¢	$3	0x1e4ba0…
10-27 08:40:24	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-13 House election by 70%-75%?	No	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0x4f68c9…
10-27 08:37:54	Will Cash Cat be the first to hit a $1B FDV?	Yes	SELL	100	3¢	$3	0x3892e8…
10-27 08:37:48	Will Cash Cat be the first to hit a $1B FDV?	Yes	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0x925d34…
10-27 08:36:17	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-18 House election by 60%-65%?	Yes	SELL	20	18¢	$4	0x9277a3…
10-27 08:33:51	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MO-08 House election by 40%-45%?	No	SELL	1	70¢	$1	0x501ede…
10-27 08:33:50	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MO-08 House election by 40%-45%?	No	BUY	20	71¢	$14	0xa31061…
10-27 08:29:38	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 10 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	50	8¢	$4	0x1f493e…
10-27 08:29:03	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 10 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0xbbb9aa…
10-27 08:25:44	Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of November 7?	No	SELL	20	81¢	$16	0xc86e4e…
10-27 08:25:42	Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of November 7?	No	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0xd20ed6…
10-27 08:24:18	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 VA-09 House election by 55% or more?	Yes	SELL	0	8¢	$0	0x1199ca…
10-27 08:24:00	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 VA-09 House election by 55% or more?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0xdcd683…
10-27 08:23:17	Will Democrats win exactly 7 House seats in Michigan in the 2026 midterm elections?	No	SELL	20	78¢	$16	0x7b32bd…
10-27 08:23:02	Will Democrats win exactly 7 House seats in Michigan in the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0x0575b4…
10-27 08:18:44	Will Ethereum hit $6k by September 30, 2027?	No	SELL	20	83¢	$17	0x79d53e…
10-27 08:18:24	Will Ethereum hit $6k by September 30, 2027?	No	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0x83c6df…
10-27 08:03:06	Will Minotaur win Best International Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	100	8¢	$8	0xc7cc10…
10-27 08:03:00	Will Minotaur win Best International Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x7fbfb2…
10-27 08:01:17	Will USD be between 3.0M and 3.5M Iranian rials on December 31?	Yes	SELL	20	18¢	$4	0xced732…