Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$22.8K

Unrealized P&L

-$557

Hit rate

1.7%

Resolved

10,393

Trades

113,513

lifetime

Volume

$2.90M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$26

Open exposure

$814

30 positions

First seen

2026-05-11

last 10-28 14:53

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 154 days

Categories

Other

60% 3% -$16,351

Politics

27% 4% -$4,442

Sports

5% 3% -$727

Tech

4% 3% -$998

Crypto

3% 3% -$206

Pop-Culture

0% 8% -$64

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 2123 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (7) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	No	+340	$308	87¢	$296	-$12	10-14 20:32
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?	Yes	+321	$320	24¢	$75	-$245	09-30 21:40
will ohio enact a data center moratorium by june 30 2027	Yes	+314	$108	16¢	$49	-$60	09-30 10:15
Will Morgan Wallen be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026?	No	+200	$119	22¢	$45	-$74	08-14 22:28
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Yes	+340	$55	13¢	$44	-$11	10-14 20:18
Will Zoom Video Communications be acquired before 2027?	No	+40	$34	95¢	$38	+$4	10-11 22:34
will russia capture all of bilytske by december 31	No	+90	$68	36¢	$33	-$35	07-22 21:11
Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027?	No	+20	$17	95¢	$19	+$2	09-13 10:48
Will Papertrade launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	+20	$5	89¢	$18	+$13	05-31 07:42
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	+400	$50	4¢	$18	-$32	09-12 16:50
iaea visits isfahan fordow or natanz nuclear site by december 31 128	No	+20	$19	84¢	$17	-$2	10-28 08:46
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?	Yes	+20	$7	77¢	$15	+$8	08-13 09:13
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T?	Yes	+20	$17	70¢	$14	-$3	09-14 22:37
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	+200	$23	7¢	$14	-$9	08-26 00:58
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?	No	+13	$14	94¢	$12	-$2	09-26 03:32
Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026?	No	+12	$7	95¢	$11	+$4	10-26 10:19
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?	Yes	+20	$16	55¢	$11	-$5	10-27 05:04
will russia capture mala tokmachka by december 31 2026	Yes	+50	$25	20¢	$10	-$15	10-03 17:23
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time?	No	+20	$20	46¢	$9	-$10	10-27 05:04
Will Manchester City be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?	Yes	+20	$1	40¢	$8	+$7	09-23 07:10
will openais valuation hit high 1pt5t by december 31 574 287	Yes	+50	$24	15¢	$8	-$17	09-22 06:56
Will Inter Milan win the 2026-27 Serie A Championship?	No	+20	$14	36¢	$7	-$7	07-13 07:17
Will Oura's market cap be between $10B and $12.5B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	+650	$37	1¢	$6	-$30	09-27 06:35
Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	+100	$8	6¢	$6	-$1	10-23 21:55
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?	No	+20	$2	30¢	$6	+$4	08-15 03:24
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1T?	No	+20	$13	30¢	$6	-$7	09-07 09:03
Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Yes	+90	$11	6¢	$5	-$5	10-26 15:40
Will the Republican Party win the NC-04 House seat?	Yes	+200	$13	2¢	$5	-$8	08-26 13:54
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+150	$7	3¢	$5	-$2	09-08 14:21
gianni infantino out as fifa president by december 31 20260706195547871	Yes	+100	$9	4¢	$4	-$6	10-26 20:59

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	78	$10.8K	9,820	9,420	+400	No	-$109	09-27 08:00
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	71	$10.6K	8,200	8,199	+0	Yes	-$76	09-22 00:25
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	66	$10.0K	7,715	7,715	+0	open	—	09-27 00:21
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	60	$9.6K	9,489	9,489	+0	open	—	09-28 07:27
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	111	$9.3K	9,216	9,216	+0	Yes	-$75	09-20 11:02
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	58	$8.4K	9,026	9,026	+0	open	—	09-27 14:59
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	80	$8.4K	8,596	8,596	+0	open	—	09-28 05:52
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	52	$8.2K	8,001	8,001	+0	open	—	10-07 20:12
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	68	$7.7K	7,521	7,521	+0	open	—	09-26 11:09
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	42	$7.7K	6,380	6,380	+0	open	—	10-11 18:42
israel x iran ceasefire continues through september 30	64	$7.7K	7,943	7,943	+0	Yes	-$73	09-26 12:10
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	42	$7.4K	7,074	7,074	+0	open	—	09-27 13:26
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	72	$7.2K	7,813	7,812	+0	No	-$75	09-13 18:48
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	99	$6.8K	6,042	6,042	+0	open	—	09-27 09:03
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	80	$6.8K	5,308	5,307	+0	open	—	09-23 18:09
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	88	$6.8K	6,624	6,624	+0	open	—	09-21 14:01
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	36	$6.7K	5,771	5,771	+0	open	—	09-25 17:23
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	71	$6.7K	6,850	6,850	+0	open	—	09-22 06:35
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	75	$6.5K	6,196	6,196	+0	open	—	09-28 19:32
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	54	$6.5K	6,685	6,685	+0	open	—	09-28 10:12
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	42	$6.4K	6,866	6,866	+0	open	—	09-26 02:41
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	53	$6.4K	6,630	6,630	+0	open	—	09-26 19:42
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?	61	$6.3K	6,913	6,713	+200	No	-$12	09-16 12:02
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	62	$6.3K	6,618	6,618	+0	Yes	-$58	09-14 14:17
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?	67	$6.2K	4,827	4,827	+0	open	—	10-25 14:01
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	46	$6.2K	6,334	6,334	+0	open	—	09-22 10:26
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	84	$6.2K	6,051	6,051	+0	open	—	09-26 13:48
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	52	$6.1K	5,211	5,211	+0	open	—	09-25 18:54
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?	75	$5.9K	4,976	4,976	+0	open	—	10-04 14:10
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	106	$5.9K	7,007	7,007	+0	open	—	09-27 12:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 15:07:46	Will it snow in Buffalo, NY by November 30?	Yes	SELL	20	79¢	$16	0xb566c7…
10-28 14:53:38	Will the Buffalo Sabres make the 2026-27 NHL Playoffs?	No	SELL	6	59¢	$3	0x0d0842…
10-28 14:53:35	Will the Buffalo Sabres make the 2026-27 NHL Playoffs?	No	BUY	6	60¢	$4	0x4b7af2…
10-28 14:41:52	Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $165 in October?	No	SELL	20	37¢	$7	0xe71047…
10-28 14:41:47	Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $165 in October?	No	BUY	20	42¢	$8	0xf0ebf6…
10-28 14:41:10	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MI-02 House election by 10%-15%?	No	SELL	20	90¢	$18	0x8c3994…
10-28 14:40:59	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MI-02 House election by 10%-15%?	No	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0x8971b8…
10-28 14:10:29	Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $180 Week of October 26 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	7¢	$1	0x139ce5…
10-28 14:10:22	Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $180 Week of October 26 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0xf9c236…
10-28 13:54:29	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $600 in October?	Yes	SELL	20	45¢	$9	0x892f36…
10-28 13:49:19	Will the Republican Party win the MD-01 House seat?	Yes	SELL	100	82¢	$82	0xe7a313…
10-28 13:49:17	Will the Republican Party win the MD-01 House seat?	Yes	BUY	57	83¢	$48	0xef9dbb…
10-28 13:49:17	Will the Republican Party win the MD-01 House seat?	Yes	BUY	30	83¢	$25	0x691756…
10-28 13:49:17	Will the Republican Party win the MD-01 House seat?	Yes	BUY	13	83¢	$10	0x4924bf…
10-28 13:45:19	Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	9¢	$3	0x490659…
10-28 13:45:16	Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	10¢	$3	0xde0171…
10-28 13:41:31	Will the Democratic Party win the WA-05 House seat?	No	SELL	27	83¢	$23	0x874b70…
10-28 13:41:22	Will the Democratic Party win the WA-05 House seat?	No	SELL	73	83¢	$60	0x88bec4…
10-28 13:41:20	Will the Democratic Party win the WA-05 House seat?	No	BUY	27	84¢	$23	0xeb4f7c…
10-28 13:41:20	Will the Democratic Party win the WA-05 House seat?	No	BUY	73	84¢	$61	0xae9fc9…
10-28 13:33:47	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Maryland gubernatorial election by 35%-40%?	No	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0x11604e…
10-28 13:32:08	Will the Republican Party win the MO-06 House seat?	No	SELL	100	5¢	$5	0xece46f…
10-28 13:31:59	Will the Republican Party win the MO-06 House seat?	No	BUY	100	6¢	$6	0x3da9d8…
10-28 13:30:17	Will Anderlecht finish top 8 in UEL league phase?	Yes	SELL	20	8¢	$2	0xb3f9d1…
10-28 13:29:53	Will Anderlecht finish top 8 in UEL league phase?	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0xc45d77…
10-28 13:29:46	Will PPI YoY be 6.4% in October?	Yes	SELL	18	1¢	$0	0x6b006e…
10-28 13:28:13	Will PPI YoY be 6.4% in October?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x890cc1…
10-28 13:28:13	Will PPI YoY be 6.4% in October?	Yes	BUY	13	2¢	$0	0x868649…
10-28 13:26:50	Will RB Leipzig finish top 8 in UCL league phase?	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0x89c9db…
10-28 13:26:28	Muse Charm released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	86¢	$17	0x4d4049…
10-28 13:26:26	Muse Charm released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0x8542d6…
10-28 12:51:22	Will the Democratic Party win the FL-12 House seat?	No	SELL	100	84¢	$84	0xcb9fb6…
10-28 12:51:20	Will the Democratic Party win the FL-12 House seat?	No	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0x24df55…
10-28 12:43:22	Will Xavier Worthy have 649.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	No	SELL	60	50¢	$30	0xf55844…
10-28 12:34:13	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Illinois gubernatorial election by 30% or more?	No	SELL	20	81¢	$16	0xeda687…
10-28 12:33:46	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Illinois gubernatorial election by 30% or more?	No	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0x8402bf…
10-28 12:31:37	UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	5¢	$5	0x6a012e…
10-28 12:31:34	UAE x Saudi Arabia sever diplomatic relations in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0xb5af0c…
10-28 12:08:58	Extended listed on Coinbase within 30 days of TGE?	No	SELL	28	51¢	$14	0x26679b…
10-28 12:02:25	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Kansas gubernatorial election by 0%-3%?	Yes	SELL	16	15¢	$2	0xe2feff…
10-28 12:02:23	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Kansas gubernatorial election by 0%-3%?	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xcaacaf…
10-28 12:02:23	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Kansas gubernatorial election by 0%-3%?	Yes	BUY	10	16¢	$2	0x3eba4a…
10-28 12:00:31	Will TCU have more than 7.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	No	SELL	6	93¢	$6	0x87ce7a…
10-28 12:00:29	Will TCU have more than 7.5 wins during the 2026 CFB season?	No	BUY	6	94¢	$6	0x6a70b6…
10-28 11:51:19	Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.0T?	No	SELL	100	81¢	$81	0x5a5f80…
10-28 11:51:13	Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.0T?	No	BUY	100	84¢	$84	0x26465b…
10-28 11:42:55	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $335 Week of October 26 2026?	No	SELL	20	43¢	$9	0xf6137a…
10-28 11:42:32	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $335 Week of October 26 2026?	No	BUY	20	44¢	$9	0x6bfcb2…
10-28 11:37:07	Will Dallas Mavericks advance to the Western Conference Finals in the 2027 NBA Playoffs?	Yes	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0x8dd377…
10-28 11:14:05	Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?	No	SELL	100	95¢	$95	0x66be61…
10-28 11:13:50	Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2027?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x5b90b2…
10-28 10:58:58	Will the Republican Party win the KS-02 House seat?	No	SELL	6	20¢	$1	0x8b21fc…
10-28 10:58:55	Will the Republican Party win the KS-02 House seat?	No	BUY	6	21¢	$1	0x9eef42…
10-28 10:54:44	Abstract FDV above $400M one day after launch?	No	SELL	90	96¢	$86	0xe08a6d…
10-28 10:54:35	Abstract FDV above $400M one day after launch?	No	BUY	90	97¢	$87	0x3db7e6…
10-28 10:53:05	Will Republicans hold 47–49 Senate seats and 193–207 House seats after the 2026 midterms?	Yes	SELL	20	26¢	$5	0x929c38…
10-28 10:52:37	Will Republicans hold 47–49 Senate seats and 193–207 House seats after the 2026 midterms?	Yes	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0x9a80a0…
10-28 10:38:01	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-22 House election by 30% or more?	Yes	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0xb72632…
10-28 10:28:29	Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher?	Yes	SELL	50	56¢	$28	0x3d6fc1…
10-28 09:15:50	Will Ivory Coast win AFCON 2027 qualifying Group C?	Yes	SELL	20	72¢	$14	0xa8ad8c…
10-28 09:15:46	Will Ivory Coast win AFCON 2027 qualifying Group C?	Yes	SELL	0	72¢	$0	0x67cb83…
10-28 09:15:44	Will Ivory Coast win AFCON 2027 qualifying Group C?	Yes	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0xa67866…
10-28 09:15:44	Will Ivory Coast win AFCON 2027 qualifying Group C?	Yes	BUY	0	75¢	$0	0x3cdd44…
10-28 09:05:41	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $120 in October?	Yes	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0xded591…
10-28 09:04:55	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $120 in October?	Yes	BUY	20	1¢	$0	0x9a580d…
10-28 08:58:50	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Michigan Secretary of State election?	Yes	SELL	20	84¢	$17	0x57dd99…
10-28 08:58:38	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Michigan Secretary of State election?	Yes	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0x303d78…
10-28 08:57:53	Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?	No	SELL	100	94¢	$94	0xe497b3…
10-28 08:57:52	Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?	No	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0x814577…
10-28 08:54:38	Will "Babydoll – Dominic Fike" be the #2 song for 2026?	No	SELL	42	13¢	$6	0xe33767…
10-28 08:54:05	Will "Babydoll – Dominic Fike" be the #2 song for 2026?	No	BUY	42	13¢	$6	0x44adf8…
10-28 08:46:26	IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?	No	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0x4684da…
10-28 08:34:40	Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	100	90¢	$90	0x2114a0…
10-28 08:34:38	Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	91¢	$91	0x5e07b7…
10-28 08:23:17	Will Waymo launch in Boston, MA by December 31 2026?	Yes	SELL	51	2¢	$1	0xf9e368…
10-28 08:23:16	Will Waymo launch in Boston, MA by December 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	51	3¢	$2	0x378d5e…
10-28 08:18:47	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Connecticut gubernatorial election by 10%-15%?	Yes	SELL	20	24¢	$5	0x2b3671…
10-28 08:18:46	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Connecticut gubernatorial election by 10%-15%?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0xa2cb01…
10-28 07:58:43	Will OpenRouter process between 185T and 195T tokens the week of October 26?	Yes	SELL	24	42¢	$10	0xeb079f…
10-28 07:58:43	Will OpenRouter process between 185T and 195T tokens the week of October 26?	Yes	SELL	20	42¢	$8	0x5d1c39…
10-28 07:11:28	Will Fredrik Gulbrandsen score the most goals in the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League?	Yes	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0x507d73…
10-28 06:45:17	Will Benfica win the 2026-27 Primeira Liga Championship?	Yes	SELL	89	29¢	$26	0xd47cd9…
10-28 06:45:11	Will Benfica win the 2026-27 Primeira Liga Championship?	Yes	BUY	50	30¢	$15	0xa71320…
10-28 06:45:11	Will Benfica win the 2026-27 Primeira Liga Championship?	Yes	BUY	39	30¢	$12	0x363dee…
10-28 06:28:19	Will the Los Angeles Rams have more than 9.5 wins during the 2026 NFL season?	No	SELL	20	48¢	$10	0x4e9092…
10-28 06:27:52	Will the Los Angeles Rams have more than 9.5 wins during the 2026 NFL season?	No	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xd65882…
10-28 06:10:28	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 RI-02 House election by 25%-30%?	No	SELL	20	79¢	$16	0x805b20…
10-28 05:35:53	Extended listed on Coinbase within 30 days of TGE?	No	SELL	2	58¢	$1	0x17ef48…
10-28 05:35:52	Extended listed on Coinbase within 30 days of TGE?	No	BUY	30	64¢	$19	0x7c0fcc…
10-28 05:24:08	Will Movistar KOI Make the Worlds 2026 Grand Final?	Yes	SELL	50	1¢	$1	0xe0df61…
10-28 05:23:49	Will Movistar KOI Make the Worlds 2026 Grand Final?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xde2c37…
10-28 05:21:52	Will StandX launch a token by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	90	2¢	$2	0xc3568b…
10-28 05:21:50	Will StandX launch a token by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	90	3¢	$3	0x392a06…
10-28 04:57:11	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Yes	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0x45c4cc…
10-28 04:56:40	Will "GTA VI: The Album" first week sales be at least 200k?	No	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0xc1a593…
10-28 04:56:35	Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0x737160…
10-28 04:38:04	Will Cheryl Fuller win the next Central Coast mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	17	70¢	$12	0x6889fa…
10-28 04:35:28	Will the Democratic Party win the CA-05 House seat?	Yes	SELL	100	6¢	$6	0xcdeebc…
10-28 04:35:22	Will the Democratic Party win the CA-05 House seat?	Yes	BUY	100	7¢	$7	0x158b33…
10-28 04:31:46	Will Cheryl Fuller win the next Central Coast mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	33	70¢	$23	0xe9eec5…