Will Microsoft have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
open
Total volume
$2,666
Trades
81
Unique wallets
22
Liquidity
$2,391
Latest YES mid
8¢
Latest NO mid
92¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-28
last 07-17 03:54
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-10.7¢
(top1%: 0% YES on $582
vs crowd: 11% YES on $1.7K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 5 | $44 | $600 | $556 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 11 | $66 | $836 | $770 |
| 🐟 Fish | 4 | $68 | $46 | +$21 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 2 | $1 | $17 | $15 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 1 | — | $582 | $582 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 3 | $51 | — | +$51 |
| Median | 2 | $1 | $46 | $45 |
| Below median | 4 | $48 | $35 | +$13 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 1 | $4 | — | +$4 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 6 | $28 | $800 | $771 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 2 | $15 | $18 | $3 |
| unranked | 3 | $32 | $18 | +$14 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Productive-Brooch 0x34af…bd55 | No | +597 | $542 | $884 | 9 | 07-17 03:54 |
| Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | +164 | $15 | $15 | 2 | 07-07 06:31 |
| Haunting-Rubric 0xdb40…3612 | Yes | +150 | $10 | $38 | 7 | 07-07 06:32 |
| Straight-Hunting 0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | +127 | $6 | $37 | 11 | 07-10 19:21 |
| (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | +63 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 07-07 06:31 |
| Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | +50 | $7 | $55 | 7 | 07-10 19:21 |
| Evil-Ejector 0x8394…8d66 | No | +50 | $46 | $46 | 3 | 07-12 16:36 |
| Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | Yes | +40 | $3 | $3 | 2 | 07-07 06:32 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | +20 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 07-07 06:31 |
| Those-Marines 0xa2d1…d015 | Yes | +20 | $1 | $1 | 2 | 07-07 12:13 |
| Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | No | +20 | $18 | $18 | 1 | 06-04 02:55 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | +20 | $18 | $18 | 1 | 06-11 09:25 |
| Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | +10 | $3 | $67 | 8 | 07-14 12:19 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-17 03:54:07 | Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 7¢ | $1 | 0x16cb4d… |
| 07-17 03:54:07 | Productive-Brooch 0x34af…bd55 | No | SELL | 20 | 93¢ | $19 | 0x16cb4d… |
| 07-16 23:49:11 | (anonymous) 0xc71b…e265 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 7¢ | $1 | 0x432f03… |
| 07-16 23:49:11 | Productive-Brooch 0x34af…bd55 | No | SELL | 20 | 93¢ | $19 | 0x432f03… |
| 07-14 12:19:31 | Productive-Brooch 0x34af…bd55 | No | SELL | 90 | 93¢ | $84 | 0x36b612… |
| 07-14 12:19:31 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | SELL | 90 | 7¢ | $6 | 0x36b612… |
| 07-12 16:36:05 | Evil-Ejector 0x8394…8d66 | No | BUY | 10 | 93¢ | $9 | 0xf9920f… |
| 07-12 16:36:05 | Productive-Brooch 0x34af…bd55 | No | SELL | 10 | 93¢ | $9 | 0xf9920f… |
| 07-12 16:31:58 | Productive-Brooch 0x34af…bd55 | No | SELL | 20 | 93¢ | $19 | 0xbf6ee1… |
| 07-12 16:31:58 | Evil-Ejector 0x8394…8d66 | No | BUY | 20 | 93¢ | $19 | 0xbf6ee1… |
| 07-12 16:11:58 | Productive-Brooch 0x34af…bd55 | No | SELL | 20 | 93¢ | $19 | 0xa1b5b8… |
| 07-12 16:11:58 | Evil-Ejector 0x8394…8d66 | No | BUY | 20 | 93¢ | $19 | 0xa1b5b8… |
| 07-10 19:21:13 | Productive-Brooch 0x34af…bd55 | No | SELL | 4 | 93¢ | $4 | 0xd98469… |
| 07-10 19:21:13 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | SELL | 100 | 7¢ | $7 | 0xd98469… |
| 07-10 19:21:13 | Straight-Hunting 0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | BUY | 96 | 7¢ | $7 | 0xd98469… |
| 07-07 12:13:11 | Those-Marines 0xa2d1…d015 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 7¢ | $1 | 0xdb65c1… |
| 07-07 12:13:11 | Straight-Hunting 0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | BUY | 4 | 7¢ | $0 | 0xdb65c1… |
| 07-07 12:13:11 | (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | SELL | 14 | 7¢ | $1 | 0xdb65c1… |
| 07-07 11:40:34 | Those-Marines 0xa2d1…d015 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 7¢ | $1 | 0x04a5f0… |
| 07-07 11:40:34 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | SELL | 30 | 7¢ | $2 | 0x04a5f0… |
| 07-07 11:40:34 | Straight-Hunting 0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 7¢ | $1 | 0x04a5f0… |
| 07-07 06:32:37 | Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | Yes | BUY | 20 | 8¢ | $2 | 0xd76c64… |
| 07-07 06:32:37 | Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 8¢ | $2 | 0xd76c64… |
| 07-07 06:32:37 | Productive-Brooch 0x34af…bd55 | No | BUY | 187 | 92¢ | $172 | 0xd76c64… |
| 07-07 06:32:37 | (anonymous) 0x54c6…e5c2 | Yes | BUY | 14 | 8¢ | $1 | 0xd76c64… |
| 07-07 06:32:37 | Haunting-Rubric 0xdb40…3612 | Yes | BUY | 133 | 8¢ | $11 | 0xd76c64… |
| 07-07 06:31:55 | Haunting-Rubric 0xdb40…3612 | Yes | BUY | 17 | 8¢ | $1 | 0xeeae42… |
| 07-07 06:31:55 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | Yes | SELL | 100 | 8¢ | $8 | 0xeeae42… |
| 07-07 06:31:55 | (anonymous) 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | BUY | 63 | 8¢ | $5 | 0xeeae42… |
| 07-07 06:31:55 | Straight-Hunting 0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 8¢ | $2 | 0xeeae42… |
| 07-07 06:31:52 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | BUY | 124 | 9¢ | $11 | 0x9c0739… |
| 07-07 06:31:52 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | BUY | 80 | 9¢ | $7 | 0x9c0739… |
| 07-07 06:31:52 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | Yes | BUY | 100 | 9¢ | $9 | 0x9c0739… |
| 07-07 06:31:52 | Straight-Hunting 0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 9¢ | $2 | 0x9c0739… |
| 07-07 06:31:52 | Productive-Brooch 0x34af…bd55 | No | BUY | 594 | 91¢ | $541 | 0x9c0739… |
| 07-07 06:31:52 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | BUY | 150 | 9¢ | $14 | 0x9c0739… |
| 07-07 06:31:52 | Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | Yes | BUY | 20 | 9¢ | $2 | 0x9c0739… |
| 07-07 06:31:52 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | BUY | 20 | 9¢ | $2 | 0x9c0739… |
| 07-07 06:31:52 | Tangible-Fuel 0x6f67…102c | No | SELL | 20 | 91¢ | $18 | 0x9c0739… |
| 06-11 09:26:30 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 10¢ | $2 | 0xc5d33b… |
| 06-11 09:26:30 | Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse 0xe457…5ab3 | No | SELL | 20 | 90¢ | $18 | 0xc5d33b… |
| 06-11 09:25:16 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | BUY | 40 | 10¢ | $4 | 0xaadbe7… |
| 06-11 09:25:16 | Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse 0xe457…5ab3 | No | BUY | 20 | 90¢ | $18 | 0xaadbe7… |
| 06-11 09:25:16 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | BUY | 20 | 90¢ | $18 | 0xaadbe7… |
| 06-11 08:31:55 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | SELL | 50 | 10¢ | $5 | 0xb800ec… |
| 06-11 08:31:55 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 10¢ | $5 | 0xb800ec… |
| 06-04 09:03:42 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | BUY | 60 | 10¢ | $6 | 0xb323eb… |
| 06-04 09:03:42 | Straight-Hunting 0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | SELL | 60 | 10¢ | $6 | 0xb323eb… |
| 06-04 02:56:52 | Straight-Hunting 0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | SELL | 21 | 10¢ | $2 | 0x18387d… |
| 06-04 02:56:52 | Pointless-Casket 0x081a…66d0 | No | SELL | 21 | 90¢ | $19 | 0x18387d… |
| 06-04 02:56:09 | Thunderous-Casserole 0x3860…7877 | No | SELL | 18 | 90¢ | $16 | 0x88d6dd… |
| 06-04 02:56:09 | Straight-Hunting 0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | SELL | 18 | 10¢ | $2 | 0x88d6dd… |
| 06-04 02:55:45 | Straight-Hunting 0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | SELL | 54 | 10¢ | $5 | 0xf961b9… |
| 06-04 02:55:45 | Strong-Visual 0x168f…9e00 | No | SELL | 54 | 90¢ | $49 | 0xf961b9… |
| 06-04 02:55:40 | Pointless-Casket 0x081a…66d0 | No | BUY | 21 | 91¢ | $19 | 0xb065b3… |
| 06-04 02:55:40 | Amazing-Pad 0x758b…0a1c | No | BUY | 20 | 91¢ | $18 | 0xb065b3… |
| 06-04 02:55:40 | Impartial-Harmonize 0xb89f…1c44 | No | SELL | 639 | 91¢ | $582 | 0xb065b3… |
| 06-04 02:55:40 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | SELL | 140 | 9¢ | $13 | 0xb065b3… |
| 06-04 02:55:40 | Haunting-Rubric 0xdb40…3612 | Yes | SELL | 112 | 9¢ | $10 | 0xb065b3… |
| 06-04 02:55:40 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | SELL | 42 | 9¢ | $4 | 0xb065b3… |
| 06-04 02:55:40 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | SELL | 230 | 9¢ | $21 | 0xb065b3… |
| 06-04 02:55:40 | Tangible-Fuel 0x6f67…102c | No | BUY | 20 | 91¢ | $18 | 0xb065b3… |
| 06-04 02:55:40 | Strong-Visual 0x168f…9e00 | No | BUY | 54 | 91¢ | $50 | 0xb065b3… |
| 05-28 06:43:38 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | BUY | 21 | 9¢ | $2 | 0x5ff4d2… |
| 05-28 06:43:38 | Haunting-Rubric 0xdb40…3612 | Yes | SELL | 41 | 9¢ | $4 | 0x5ff4d2… |
| 05-28 06:43:38 | (anonymous) 0xc71b…e265 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 9¢ | $2 | 0x5ff4d2… |
| 05-28 06:24:48 | Pointless-Casket 0x081a…66d0 | Yes | SELL | 55 | 8¢ | $4 | 0xe54454… |
| 05-28 06:24:48 | Haunting-Rubric 0xdb40…3612 | Yes | BUY | 55 | 8¢ | $4 | 0xe54454… |
| 05-28 04:36:46 | Thunderous-Casserole 0x3860…7877 | No | BUY | 18 | 92¢ | $17 | 0xf1b378… |
| 05-28 04:36:46 | Haunting-Rubric 0xdb40…3612 | Yes | BUY | 18 | 8¢ | $1 | 0xf1b378… |
| 05-28 04:35:52 | Haunting-Rubric 0xdb40…3612 | Yes | BUY | 80 | 8¢ | $6 | 0x2f771b… |
| 05-28 04:35:52 | Straight-Hunting 0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | BUY | 100 | 8¢ | $8 | 0x2f771b… |
| 05-28 04:35:52 | Strong-Visual 0x168f…9e00 | Yes | SELL | 200 | 8¢ | $16 | 0x2f771b… |
| 05-28 04:35:38 | Impartial-Harmonize 0xb89f…1c44 | No | BUY | 639 | 91¢ | $582 | 0x99faaf… |
| 05-28 04:35:38 | Ambitious-Society 0x3659…0451 | Yes | BUY | 140 | 9¢ | $13 | 0x99faaf… |
| 05-28 04:35:38 | Pointless-Casket 0x081a…66d0 | Yes | BUY | 55 | 9¢ | $5 | 0x99faaf… |
| 05-28 04:35:38 | Strong-Visual 0x168f…9e00 | Yes | BUY | 200 | 9¢ | $18 | 0x99faaf… |
| 05-28 04:35:38 | Straight-Hunting 0x66a1…80d9 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 9¢ | $2 | 0x99faaf… |
| 05-28 04:35:38 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | BUY | 40 | 9¢ | $4 | 0x99faaf… |
| 05-28 04:35:38 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | BUY | 21 | 9¢ | $2 | 0x99faaf… |
| 05-28 04:35:38 | Tight-Email 0x8a21…fec3 | Yes | BUY | 140 | 9¢ | $13 | 0x99faaf… |