Those-Marines — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$19

Unrealized P&L

+$4

Hit rate

76.1%

Resolved

Trades

193

lifetime

Volume

$66.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$345

Open exposure

$10

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-08 00:29

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

52% 100% +$46

Other

45% 0% $-27

Crypto

3% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

24 active days in 12wk • peak 6 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	-200	$-10	2¢	$-4	+$6	06-12 07:31
Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+20	$2	8¢	$2	$-1	07-02 19:45
Will Microsoft have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+20	$1	8¢	$2	+$0	07-07 12:13
Will Frontier Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31?	Yes	+20	$2	8¢	$1	$-1	06-16 03:21
New COVID variant of concern before 2027?	Yes	+7	$1	14¢	$1	+$0	07-08 00:29

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	5	$5.5K	2,889	2,889	+0	open	—	03-28 18:32
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 3 345	2	$4.4K	2,509	2,509	+0	open	—	03-04 06:38
will russia strike kyiv on february 5 2026	3	$4.3K	2,167	2,167	+0	open	—	02-05 21:58
will russia capture all of myrnohrad by february 28	2	$4.0K	2,044	2,044	+0	open	—	02-05 07:28
russia x ukraine prisoner exchange by february 14 2026	2	$3.9K	1,986	1,986	+0	open	—	02-05 11:25
us strikes iran by february 6 2026 242 933 289 312 673 611 155 294	2	$3.9K	1,956	1,956	+0	open	—	02-06 21:32
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	3	$3.7K	1,910	1,915	-5	open	—	02-04 03:03
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	5	$3.4K	1,859	1,859	+0	open	—	02-28 21:42
Iran leadership change by March 13?	3	$2.4K	1,260	1,260	+0	open	—	03-13 20:23
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	4	$2.4K	1,343	1,343	+0	open	—	02-01 12:37
will trump talk to emmanuel macron in january	2	$2.1K	1,041	1,041	+0	open	—	01-30 16:11
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	3	$1.9K	9,931	1,891	+8,040	open	—	04-08 05:17
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	3	$1.5K	824	824	+0	open	—	01-28 16:39
us strikes iran by february 9 2026 113 751	2	$1.4K	1,471	0	+1,471	open	—	02-09 16:14
will gold close between 4300 and 4400 at the end of 2025 774 377	1	$1.3K	0	1,270	-1,270	open	—	01-01 03:41
will russia capture lyman by february 28 2026	4	$1.2K	234	1,000	-766	open	—	02-28 21:29
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	2	$1.1K	597	597	+0	open	—	04-07 13:20
will russia capture hryshyne by february 28 2026	2	$1.0K	552	552	+0	open	—	02-28 21:40
Fogo FDV above $1B one day after launch?	3	$1.0K	546	546	+0	open	—	01-16 08:40
will grok 4pt20 be released on january 19 2026	1	$1.0K	1,018	0	+1,018	open	—	01-19 06:31
russia strike on kyiv municipality by december 31 684	1	$1000	1,050	0	+1,050	open	—	01-01 17:50
will mara corina machado enter venezuela by january 31 859 245	8	$945	907	907	+0	open	—	01-09 08:42
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	3	$884	521	521	+0	open	—	03-27 08:53
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	2	$830	435	435	+0	open	—	03-13 20:21
us strikes iran by february 24 2026	1	$715	756	0	+756	open	—	02-23 18:02
will russia capture all of stepnohirsk by february 28 2026	5	$669	459	459	+0	open	—	02-20 05:46
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch?	4	$654	423	423	+0	open	—	03-15 10:16
will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	3	$623	330	330	+0	open	—	03-10 17:34
will russia capture all of vovchansk by march 31	2	$610	341	341	+0	open	—	03-07 20:18
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	6	$595	400	400	+0	open	—	02-03 20:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-08 00:29:20	New COVID variant of concern before 2027?	Yes	BUY	7	13¢	$1	0x762c3e…
07-07 12:13:11	Will Microsoft have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	7¢	$1	0xdb65c1…
07-07 11:40:34	Will Microsoft have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	7¢	$1	0x04a5f0…
07-02 19:45:10	Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0x9057e8…
06-16 03:21:51	Will Frontier Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31?	Yes	BUY	14	12¢	$2	0xb48124…
06-15 15:43:15	Will Frontier Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31?	Yes	BUY	6	12¢	$1	0x800b03…
06-12 07:31:19	FaZe roster change Before GTA VI?	No	SELL	6	5¢	$0	0x7b6273…
06-12 07:31:16	Will JetBlue announce bankruptcy by December 31?	Yes	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0x2a1f17…
06-12 07:31:13	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	4¢	$7	0xa0f8b1…
06-11 20:24:01	FaZe roster change Before GTA VI?	No	BUY	6	11¢	$1	0x080bc2…
06-10 20:59:15	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	5¢	$10	0x9e8e17…
06-06 20:46:21	Will JetBlue announce bankruptcy by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0x4f6ba1…
06-06 19:26:09	Will JetBlue announce bankruptcy by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0x247e3f…
06-04 17:20:25	FaZe roster change Before GTA VI?	No	SELL	2	13¢	$0	0xf9ceb2…
06-04 17:20:16	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	SELL	200	98¢	$197	0x1fb5a5…
06-03 05:47:30	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	BUY	200	90¢	$180	0xa74350…
06-02 14:15:08	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	200	16¢	$32	0xdec13e…
05-31 15:03:45	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	200	16¢	$32	0x7cf9c3…
05-29 20:24:52	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	6¢	$12	0x6a0ad2…
05-18 17:56:01	Spurs vs. Thunder	Spurs	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0xcc6607…
05-15 21:09:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	200	5¢	$10	0x5ae38f…
05-15 08:35:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	200	5¢	$10	0xff8c96…
05-12 10:51:48	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	78	32¢	$25	0xb99a9d…
05-12 07:34:08	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	SELL	40	1¢	$1	0x62d740…
05-08 19:25:11	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	29¢	$58	0x948d0b…
05-08 19:24:48	Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations?	Yes	SELL	200	3¢	$6	0xe2d11a…
05-08 19:24:40	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	Yes	SELL	200	3¢	$7	0x3882cf…
05-08 01:14:31	Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations?	Yes	BUY	134	4¢	$5	0xaafd21…
05-08 00:55:59	Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations?	Yes	BUY	30	4¢	$1	0xee0c92…
05-07 21:57:19	Chirayu Rana apologizes for sexual harassment allegations?	Yes	BUY	36	4¢	$1	0xda0171…
05-06 18:45:49	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	7¢	$14	0x9784a2…
05-06 11:11:40	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	Yes	BUY	200	3¢	$6	0xffa0b6…
05-06 06:18:24	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	5¢	$10	0x355477…
05-05 20:01:04	Will Strategy (MSTR) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	200	2¢	$5	0x0dd672…
05-04 15:50:44	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	4¢	$8	0xd2670a…
05-03 16:35:30	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	6¢	$12	0xb65885…
05-03 16:35:28	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	Yes	SELL	200	4¢	$8	0xa04091…
05-02 15:27:20	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	Yes	BUY	200	4¢	$8	0xc090b3…
05-02 12:02:32	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	7¢	$14	0xfe026a…
05-02 11:16:22	Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31?	No	BUY	2	69¢	$1	0x26d110…
05-02 10:32:00	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	BUY	40	57¢	$23	0xd45672…
05-02 08:28:50	Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by May 31?	No	BUY	40	78¢	$31	0x84ccf3…
05-02 08:25:34	Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31?	No	BUY	28	69¢	$19	0xae1cab…
04-08 05:17:45	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	8,040	0¢	$32	0xc0ce99…
04-07 23:24:09	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	SELL	1,891	2¢	$32	0xe95c57…
04-07 13:37:41	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	1,891	96¢	$1,825	0x8aabc6…
04-07 13:20:51	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	SELL	597	95¢	$568	0x560094…
04-06 22:01:23	Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by April 30?	Yes	SELL	100	62¢	$62	0x2b9a09…
04-06 20:51:13	Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by April 30?	Yes	BUY	100	66¢	$66	0xb08ffe…
03-28 18:34:03	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	SELL	167	91¢	$152	0x5d32d5…
03-28 18:32:11	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	SELL	1,989	99¢	$1,977	0x3de559…
03-27 08:53:57	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	SELL	521	97¢	$505	0x166f10…
03-15 10:17:49	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	BUY	597	83¢	$495	0x1ecaa9…
03-15 10:16:25	EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	SELL	200	91¢	$182	0x37a57d…
03-13 20:23:27	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	1,301	96¢	$1,249	0x5c6508…
03-13 20:23:15	Iran leadership change by March 13?	No	SELL	1,260	99¢	$1,249	0x73ebc8…
03-13 20:22:15	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	688	96¢	$660	0x312f0f…
03-13 20:21:51	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	No	SELL	435	99¢	$430	0x39fc1f…
03-13 14:51:05	us forces enter iran by march 14 337	No	SELL	238	97¢	$231	0x6c2ed1…
03-10 19:22:49	Iran leadership change by March 13?	No	BUY	344	94¢	$323	0x19fde9…
03-10 17:34:03	will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	No	SELL	223	98¢	$218	0x51ccda…
03-10 17:33:59	will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	No	SELL	107	98¢	$105	0xb06fe3…
03-10 16:16:31	Iran leadership change by March 13?	No	BUY	916	94¢	$861	0xb23ea0…
03-10 16:16:11	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	SELL	900	96¢	$861	0x2cdca8…
03-09 20:26:37	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	126	62¢	$78	0xc41434…
03-08 17:24:39	will russia capture hryshyne by march 31 2026 299	No	SELL	200	39¢	$78	0x28afac…
03-08 09:55:59	will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	No	BUY	330	91¢	$300	0xb3c2c8…
03-08 09:24:09	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	SELL	230	75¢	$173	0x8d70ef…
03-08 09:08:53	us forces enter iran by march 14 337	No	BUY	238	84¢	$200	0xad29e4…
03-08 09:08:45	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	No	BUY	167	60¢	$100	0x60667a…
03-08 08:31:05	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	900	89¢	$800	0x5f6e9c…
03-07 20:18:09	will russia capture all of vovchansk by march 31	No	SELL	341	91¢	$310	0x2a1cc0…
03-07 20:13:33	will russia capture all of stepnohirsk by march 31 2026 627	No	SELL	239	78¢	$187	0xb13596…
03-07 11:47:29	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	No	BUY	435	92¢	$400	0x734c46…
03-07 11:47:15	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	395	76¢	$300	0xdbd338…
03-07 11:28:57	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	BUY	230	43¢	$100	0x62d42d…
03-04 09:22:53	will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 31 483 852 436 833 347 948	Yes	SELL	300	82¢	$246	0x91bb67…
03-04 06:38:53	will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 3 345	No	SELL	2,509	100¢	$2,501	0x16baf5…
03-03 21:27:41	will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 3 345	No	BUY	2,509	75¢	$1,890	0x235457…
03-03 18:56:33	will russia capture all of vovchansk by march 31	No	BUY	341	88¢	$300	0xc73e74…
03-03 18:53:25	will russia capture all of stepnohirsk by march 31 2026 627	No	BUY	239	84¢	$200	0xe3f035…
03-01 19:19:03	will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 31 483 852 436 833 347 948	Yes	BUY	300	85¢	$255	0x72e0d1…
02-28 21:42:13	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	Yes	SELL	1,561	99¢	$1,547	0x7cf713…
02-28 21:40:47	will russia capture hryshyne by february 28 2026	No	SELL	552	99¢	$547	0x96a57d…
02-28 21:29:57	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	1,071	93¢	$994	0xa54d8f…
02-28 21:29:37	will russia capture lyman by february 28 2026	No	SELL	1,000	99¢	$994	0x14740f…
02-28 21:18:45	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	490	93¢	$457	0xf57ab3…
02-27 08:22:53	will there be at least 1050 measles cases in the us by february 28 2026	Yes	BUY	457	91¢	$414	0xacb1aa…
02-26 10:56:50	will russia capture hryshyne by march 31 2026 299	No	BUY	200	71¢	$142	0xfe83ce…
02-23 18:02:42	us strikes iran by february 24 2026	No	BUY	756	95¢	$715	0x45b964…
02-20 05:46:32	will russia capture all of stepnohirsk by february 28 2026	No	SELL	300	97¢	$291	0x4ebcf0…
02-18 18:16:26	will russia capture all of pokrovsk by february 28	No	BUY	100	83¢	$83	0x931e03…
02-18 17:54:18	will russia capture drobysheve by february 28	No	BUY	551	91¢	$500	0xf0826d…
02-17 11:46:45	Hyperlend FDV above $20M one day after launch?	No	BUY	100	32¢	$32	0xb0476e…
02-13 17:19:27	will russia capture all of stepnohirsk by february 28 2026	No	BUY	300	87¢	$261	0x11542a…
02-13 17:18:03	will russia capture all of stepnohirsk by march 31 2026 627	Yes	SELL	119	34¢	$40	0xb636f5…
02-13 16:06:05	will russia capture lyman by march 31 2026 494	Yes	SELL	212	35¢	$74	0x7d921b…
02-13 08:20:49	another us government shutdown by february 14	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x6d08ae…
02-10 15:43:05	will russia capture all of huliaipole by february 28	Yes	SELL	200	80¢	$160	0x8dc01d…
02-10 15:39:23	will russia capture all of huliaipole by february 28	Yes	BUY	200	73¢	$145	0xf38222…