Watchful-Production — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$35

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

35.4%

Resolved

Trades

1,364

lifetime

Volume

$6.65K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-12

last 08-10 11:19

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

48% 100% +$0

Politics

27% 33% $-35

Crypto

15% 100% +$0

Tech

10% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

67 active days in 12wk • peak 46 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	38	$809	1,690	1,655	+35	open	—	08-04 15:28
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	95	$520	622	381	+241	open	—	06-01 09:31
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	53	$369	716	615	+101	open	—	06-16 16:59
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	37	$224	245	265	-19	open	—	04-07 23:07
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	28	$187	196	265	-69	open	—	06-03 21:45
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	33	$182	158	149	+10	open	—	06-02 12:37
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	32	$162	170	0	+170	open	—	04-10 23:17
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026?	34	$116	127	0	+127	open	—	04-21 08:02
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	22	$108	422	83	+339	open	—	08-10 08:49
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	15	$104	88	43	+45	open	—	04-21 13:47
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	21	$104	1,971	1,963	+7	open	—	06-02 13:06
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	20	$101	110	37	+72	open	—	04-23 18:14
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	20	$101	481	456	+25	open	—	04-27 20:16
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	19	$97	112	56	+56	open	—	04-07 22:54
will 40 44 ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 10 16	50	$95	567	80	+487	open	—	03-24 12:45
will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	31	$87	74	75	-1	open	—	06-21 15:44
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	14	$84	139	117	+22	open	—	05-05 22:46
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	3	$75	63	63	+0	open	—	05-15 17:07
will 60 or more ships transit the strait of hormuz between april 6 april 12	13	$69	72	56	+15	open	—	04-13 20:44
will 45 or more ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 30 april 5	13	$67	76	58	+18	open	—	04-07 13:29
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	11	$65	95	95	+0	open	—	04-19 12:34
will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 31	14	$62	61	40	+21	open	—	07-17 09:41
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	18	$55	129	129	+0	open	—	04-07 23:03
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	6	$55	27	33	-6	open	—	05-23 01:47
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by March 31?	11	$53	60	0	+60	open	—	04-07 13:27
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	4	$52	39	39	+0	open	—	06-15 06:40
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	11	$50	549	469	+80	open	—	06-02 12:37
will trump say sleepy joe or biden during the white house easter egg roll	8	$48	37	12	+25	open	—	04-06 16:43
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	13	$46	54	12	+42	open	—	04-07 23:05
will 10 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day april 812	11	$45	80	56	+23	open	—	04-13 19:59

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-10 11:19:03	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 31 2026 339	No	BUY	13	47¢	$6	0x9a03c4…
08-10 08:50:39	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	No	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0x0940bd…
08-10 08:49:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	12	52¢	$6	0xdc2c9f…
08-06 12:16:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	16	38¢	$6	0x505357…
08-05 14:32:06	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	33	18¢	$6	0x962fdb…
08-05 14:20:57	will wti reach 85 in august 2026	Yes	BUY	18	34¢	$6	0x4874b7…
08-05 13:22:44	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8	76¢	$6	0x966863…
08-05 12:56:33	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8	76¢	$6	0x703d8d…
08-05 12:15:53	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	Yes	BUY	55	12¢	$7	0xa59e68…
08-05 08:47:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	16	39¢	$6	0x075856…
08-05 04:57:06	will wti dip to 65 in august 2026	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x4dc167…
08-05 04:14:18	will wti dip to 65 in august 2026	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x6d2243…
08-05 03:40:36	will wti reach 90 in august 2026	Yes	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0xcedb9f…
08-05 03:09:24	will wti reach 90 in august 2026	Yes	BUY	33	19¢	$6	0x56e54e…
08-05 00:51:27	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by august 31	Yes	BUY	55	5¢	$3	0x509564…
08-04 15:28:12	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	SELL	7	94¢	$6	0xa73e8c…
08-04 15:28:05	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x43d2c8…
08-04 15:26:45	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	SELL	288	72¢	$208	0xfd6504…
08-04 15:24:18	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	SELL	15	69¢	$10	0x417127…
08-04 15:22:39	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	SELL	555	52¢	$288	0x0c8399…
08-04 12:28:15	Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	9	69¢	$6	0xa10e25…
08-04 11:24:06	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	SELL	77	3¢	$3	0x4d298b…
08-03 16:10:53	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	SELL	25	3¢	$1	0x2baa12…
08-01 21:33:00	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	SELL	34	4¢	$2	0x38d31e…
07-31 13:03:24	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	SELL	85	3¢	$2	0xa76454…
07-30 18:12:06	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	BUY	313	1¢	$4	0x257190…
07-30 13:59:21	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	BUY	170	1¢	$2	0xba480a…
07-30 08:01:48	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	BUY	78	2¢	$1	0x11859b…
07-30 06:50:48	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	BUY	154	1¢	$2	0xfa5cc8…
07-29 18:17:35	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	SELL	23	4¢	$1	0x539beb…
07-28 13:10:01	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	BUY	217	2¢	$5	0x433e04…
07-28 13:09:55	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	BUY	286	2¢	$6	0x9fae89…
07-28 04:32:30	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	BUY	27	3¢	$1	0x3fe922…
07-27 18:06:10	will trump say hell 7 times during michigan remarks 20260724162420354	Yes	BUY	2	72¢	$1	0xdfa6df…
07-27 17:09:00	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	SELL	69	16¢	$11	0x7e4c01…
07-27 17:01:43	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	SELL	35	12¢	$4	0x02b14b…
07-27 16:48:16	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	SELL	8	12¢	$1	0xbf107e…
07-27 15:42:03	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	No	SELL	10	8¢	$1	0xe2ca16…
07-26 21:15:48	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 31 20260718000915875	No	BUY	10	59¢	$6	0x7fb61c…
07-26 18:07:48	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	SELL	51	9¢	$5	0x454bf0…
07-26 09:03:06	us announces end of iranian blockade by july 31 2026 20260713152715082 212	No	BUY	8	76¢	$6	0xccf3b5…
07-26 08:57:28	us announces end of iranian blockade by july 31 2026 20260713152715082 212	No	BUY	8	76¢	$6	0x8b3da0…
07-26 00:43:39	us announces end of iranian blockade by july 31 2026 20260713152715082 212	No	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0xa956be…
07-25 22:57:24	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0xc50859…
07-25 22:57:22	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	BUY	144	4¢	$6	0xa91261…
07-25 22:56:51	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	BUY	11	5¢	$1	0xd2ebb0…
07-25 16:24:31	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	BUY	23	5¢	$1	0x510371…
07-25 16:24:04	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	BUY	19	5¢	$1	0x1bd915…
07-25 14:43:30	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	BUY	15	5¢	$1	0x3509f6…
07-25 14:31:04	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	BUY	58	5¢	$3	0xc0261c…
07-25 13:45:27	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	BUY	16	6¢	$1	0xc7bad4…
07-25 13:44:43	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	BUY	29	6¢	$2	0x57b2e5…
07-25 12:02:42	will the total us effective tariff rate for q2 be at least 7 20260722202131838	Yes	BUY	9	71¢	$7	0x4b62bb…
07-23 20:13:45	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	BUY	16	39¢	$6	0x83bed1…
07-23 18:25:55	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	BUY	16	39¢	$6	0x9129aa…
07-23 17:25:00	will the next claude opus model be released by july 23 2026	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xae1c5f…
07-23 17:24:03	will the next claude opus model be released by july 23 2026	No	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x7b0845…
07-23 17:10:24	will the next claude opus model be released by july 23 2026	No	BUY	9	71¢	$6	0xbae72f…
07-23 17:02:22	will the next claude opus model be released by july 23 2026	No	BUY	8	81¢	$6	0x1a99ad…
07-22 02:11:03	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	SELL	13	49¢	$6	0x0a8891…
07-20 08:32:27	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	BUY	8	14¢	$1	0xcab077…
07-19 13:09:16	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	BUY	22	15¢	$3	0xcdb9ca…
07-18 17:14:52	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	BUY	50	13¢	$6	0xff9532…
07-18 17:14:42	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 2	Yes	BUY	14	44¢	$6	0x2d3fc8…
07-18 06:00:36	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	7	91¢	$6	0x124f9c…
07-17 18:22:18	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	Yes	BUY	33	9¢	$3	0xb16e8c…
07-17 09:41:33	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 31	Yes	SELL	8	90¢	$7	0x5435d1…
07-17 04:48:28	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 31	Yes	SELL	5	83¢	$4	0x2b447b…
07-17 01:07:49	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	SELL	28	10¢	$3	0x7b4fee…
07-17 00:56:08	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 31	Yes	SELL	1	76¢	$1	0xe262a4…
07-17 00:54:28	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 31	Yes	SELL	5	82¢	$4	0xe53990…
07-17 00:43:58	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 17 20260713194332727	Yes	BUY	177	1¢	$2	0x69fb27…
07-16 23:52:20	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 17 20260713194332727	Yes	SELL	38	6¢	$2	0x23fe97…
07-16 23:18:14	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 17 20260713194332727	Yes	BUY	154	3¢	$5	0x9c101d…
07-16 02:07:01	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	2	76¢	$2	0x42888b…
07-15 00:14:52	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	BUY	29	21¢	$6	0x7fdbef…
07-15 00:12:35	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	7	81¢	$5	0x8c540a…
07-15 00:09:04	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	7	81¢	$6	0x2378fe…
07-14 23:45:05	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	8	81¢	$6	0xc0f89d…
07-13 23:50:20	us charges hormuz fees by july 17 2026 20260713155039898	No	BUY	6	95¢	$6	0x234518…
07-13 23:26:55	us charges hormuz fees by july 31 2026 20260713151243233	No	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0x2240a3…
07-13 22:32:46	NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0xa66c87…
07-13 20:15:35	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	15	40¢	$6	0xd7c051…
07-13 19:39:28	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	4	40¢	$2	0x00470c…
07-13 19:30:22	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xbc42b0…
07-12 20:19:53	will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase july 7 13	No	BUY	7	90¢	$6	0xa77ac9…
07-12 17:51:59	will the united states send warships through the strait of hormuz by july 31 2026 20260701001952741	Yes	BUY	17	31¢	$5	0xd2dbfc…
07-12 14:32:31	will microstrategy announce selling any bitcoin july 7 13	No	BUY	7	82¢	$6	0x324d2b…
07-12 11:22:52	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	13	46¢	$6	0xc58656…
07-12 11:08:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	17	37¢	$6	0x765517…
07-12 00:34:04	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	Yes	SELL	5	51¢	$2	0x22b1a5…
07-12 00:28:38	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	Yes	SELL	8	46¢	$3	0x30776f…
07-12 00:27:40	will the us announce a blockade on iran by august 31	Yes	SELL	6	48¢	$3	0xfd26c6…
07-12 00:05:14	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	Yes	SELL	10	34¢	$3	0x363893…
07-12 00:02:11	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	Yes	SELL	8	34¢	$3	0xdf412c…
07-11 23:40:28	will microstrategy announce selling any bitcoin july 7 13	No	BUY	7	89¢	$6	0x9c9257…
07-11 22:44:22	will spacex starship flight test 13 launch by july 15 20260708222654005	No	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0x28dfec…
07-11 22:19:08	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	11	58¢	$6	0xc22856…
07-11 22:17:08	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	SELL	16	9¢	$1	0xe8d362…
07-11 22:15:59	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	Yes	SELL	45	9¢	$4	0xe4720c…