Watchful-Production — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$35

Unrealized P&L

+$44

Hit rate

35.4%

Resolved

Trades

1,204

lifetime

Volume

$5.26K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$183

6 positions

First seen

2026-03-12

last 06-30 17:39

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

41% 100% +$0

Politics

30% 33% $-35

Crypto

18% 100% +$0

Tech

10% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

68 active days in 12wk • peak 80 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	+101	$77	100¢	$101	+$24	06-16 16:59
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	+235	$33	18¢	$41	+$8	06-23 17:07
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	+40	$15	66¢	$26	+$12	06-15 05:56
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	Anthropic	+8	$6	90¢	$7	+$1	06-25 20:43
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	+7	$3	83¢	$6	+$3	06-28 05:20
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81	Yes	+16	$6	14¢	$2	$-4	06-03 06:39

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	95	$520	622	381	+241	open	—	06-01 09:31
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	53	$369	716	615	+101	open	—	06-16 16:59
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	37	$224	245	265	-19	open	—	04-07 23:07
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	28	$187	196	265	-69	open	—	06-03 21:45
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	33	$182	158	149	+10	open	—	06-02 12:37
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	32	$162	170	0	+170	open	—	04-10 23:17
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026?	34	$116	127	0	+127	open	—	04-21 08:02
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	15	$104	88	43	+45	open	—	04-21 13:47
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	21	$104	1,971	1,963	+7	open	—	06-02 13:06
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	20	$101	110	37	+72	open	—	04-23 18:14
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	20	$101	481	456	+25	open	—	04-27 20:16
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	19	$97	112	56	+56	open	—	04-07 22:54
will 40 44 ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 10 16	50	$95	567	80	+487	open	—	03-24 12:45
will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	31	$87	74	75	-1	open	—	06-21 15:44
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	14	$84	139	117	+22	open	—	05-05 22:46
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	3	$75	63	63	+0	open	—	05-15 17:07
will 60 or more ships transit the strait of hormuz between april 6 april 12	13	$69	72	56	+15	open	—	04-13 20:44
will 45 or more ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 30 april 5	13	$67	76	58	+18	open	—	04-07 13:29
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	11	$65	95	95	+0	open	—	04-19 12:34
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	18	$55	129	129	+0	open	—	04-07 23:03
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	6	$55	27	33	-6	open	—	05-23 01:47
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by March 31?	11	$53	60	0	+60	open	—	04-07 13:27
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	4	$52	39	39	+0	open	—	06-15 06:40
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	11	$50	549	469	+80	open	—	06-02 12:37
will trump say sleepy joe or biden during the white house easter egg roll	8	$48	37	12	+25	open	—	04-06 16:43
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?	13	$46	54	12	+42	open	—	04-07 23:05
will 10 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day april 812	11	$45	80	56	+23	open	—	04-13 19:59
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	11	$44	58	0	+58	open	—	03-24 19:00
will trump say crypto or bitcoin during address to the nation	8	$42	44	0	+44	open	—	04-01 16:15
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	10	$42	78	78	+0	open	—	05-29 19:02

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-30 17:39:13	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x5b6dfa…
06-30 17:38:16	will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	6	20¢	$1	0x256fa9…
06-28 05:20:37	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	BUY	7	43¢	$3	0x2efbd6…
06-27 02:35:05	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	6	8¢	$0	0xa8f457…
06-27 01:53:17	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	4	7¢	$0	0x604737…
06-27 01:50:08	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	4	7¢	$0	0x576875…
06-26 01:36:46	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	17	6¢	$1	0x66bf74…
06-26 01:36:44	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	5	7¢	$0	0x4f68dc…
06-26 01:04:17	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	1	6¢	$0	0x92380a…
06-26 00:30:20	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	0	7¢	$0	0x933a96…
06-26 00:18:29	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	1	7¢	$0	0x3b10bd…
06-26 00:02:53	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	4	7¢	$0	0x6c273e…
06-25 23:55:20	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	1	7¢	$0	0x9b030e…
06-25 23:53:56	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	1	7¢	$0	0x9e8be4…
06-25 23:52:19	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	2	7¢	$0	0x66a5c2…
06-25 23:48:59	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	0	7¢	$0	0xb7165f…
06-25 20:43:38	Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	Anthropic	BUY	8	78¢	$6	0xff1871…
06-23 17:07:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	46	14¢	$6	0x2d2f49…
06-23 13:30:55	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xb1b699…
06-23 13:19:17	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0xeab930…
06-22 14:57:14	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	9	70¢	$6	0x959e67…
06-22 14:55:31	will spacex have 14 launches in june 2026	Yes	BUY	9	71¢	$7	0x60689e…
06-22 13:40:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	46	14¢	$6	0x422b48…
06-22 04:11:31	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	11	55¢	$6	0x70f54e…
06-22 01:58:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	46	14¢	$6	0xf27253…
06-21 16:32:37	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	12	53¢	$6	0x3cb54a…
06-21 15:44:52	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	11	56¢	$6	0x002147…
06-21 15:44:37	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	SELL	36	94¢	$34	0x266118…
06-21 14:56:46	will 40 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	1	53¢	$0	0xa5a9f7…
06-19 09:03:53	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0x9e4312…
06-19 08:46:05	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	7	84¢	$6	0x7593d6…
06-19 08:45:05	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	0	84¢	$0	0xb2d539…
06-19 08:22:23	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	7	84¢	$6	0xd23083…
06-19 07:41:47	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	4	84¢	$3	0xbdeeeb…
06-19 07:37:52	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	1	84¢	$0	0xc0e9bc…
06-19 07:37:44	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	7	84¢	$6	0x311df0…
06-19 07:34:53	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	7	88¢	$6	0x750670…
06-18 17:44:22	will spacex have 14 launches in june 2026	Yes	SELL	6	61¢	$4	0xbba06d…
06-18 08:52:38	will spacex have exactly 13 launches in june 2026	Yes	BUY	14	22¢	$3	0x363ebe…
06-17 15:54:41	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	1	61¢	$0	0x7c5eeb…
06-17 15:52:05	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	2	61¢	$1	0x1652fe…
06-16 16:59:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	7	83¢	$6	0xa05baf…
06-16 16:59:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	7	83¢	$6	0x8f8477…
06-16 16:59:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	7	83¢	$6	0x3ca767…
06-16 16:59:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	7	83¢	$6	0xced6e8…
06-16 16:59:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	7	83¢	$6	0xf71e11…
06-16 16:59:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	7	83¢	$6	0x371eb5…
06-16 16:59:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	7	83¢	$6	0x769da2…
06-16 16:58:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	7	83¢	$6	0x78171f…
06-16 16:58:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	7	83¢	$6	0x53af32…
06-16 16:58:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	7	82¢	$6	0xb0ca16…
06-16 16:58:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	7	82¢	$6	0x970847…
06-16 16:54:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	7	83¢	$6	0x3b99e8…
06-16 16:53:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	7	83¢	$6	0xb468f1…
06-16 16:52:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	2	83¢	$1	0xaf58bd…
06-16 16:49:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	7	83¢	$6	0x11564c…
06-16 16:49:32	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	10	61¢	$6	0x955c9c…
06-16 15:40:22	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	SELL	16	43¢	$7	0xae1dfc…
06-16 15:40:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	551	17¢	$94	0x5cbfc7…
06-16 08:17:43	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	8	17¢	$1	0x5bbb63…
06-16 08:17:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	8	17¢	$1	0x7b29be…
06-16 08:17:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	38	17¢	$6	0xfbcca2…
06-16 08:17:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	8	17¢	$1	0xdfff3c…
06-16 08:17:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	38	17¢	$6	0x54ba5a…
06-16 08:17:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	8	17¢	$1	0xa65146…
06-16 08:17:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	38	17¢	$6	0x4abd81…
06-16 08:17:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	8	17¢	$1	0xabea00…
06-16 08:17:09	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	38	17¢	$6	0xc89311…
06-16 08:17:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	8	17¢	$1	0x199c62…
06-16 08:17:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	38	17¢	$6	0xe596dd…
06-16 08:16:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	8	17¢	$1	0x49a8ac…
06-16 08:16:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	38	17¢	$6	0x8edef0…
06-16 08:16:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	8	17¢	$1	0x599821…
06-16 08:16:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	38	17¢	$6	0x187f51…
06-16 08:16:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	8	17¢	$1	0x75f79a…
06-16 08:16:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	38	17¢	$6	0x2f7e33…
06-16 08:16:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	8	17¢	$1	0x1cf356…
06-16 08:16:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	38	17¢	$6	0x3500a4…
06-16 08:16:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	8	17¢	$1	0x389b0a…
06-16 08:16:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	38	17¢	$6	0x6380a9…
06-16 08:16:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	8	17¢	$1	0x115f82…
06-16 08:16:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	38	17¢	$6	0xe847ca…
06-16 08:16:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	8	17¢	$1	0x0cd23e…
06-16 08:16:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	38	17¢	$6	0x9a989c…
06-16 08:11:37	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	Yes	BUY	16	39¢	$6	0xa595bc…
06-16 07:53:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	64	82¢	$52	0x9bb818…
06-16 07:20:54	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	SELL	39	31¢	$12	0x5bf41a…
06-15 12:03:09	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	7	19¢	$1	0xbe015b…
06-15 11:54:21	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	10	19¢	$2	0xe8feb4…
06-15 09:08:15	will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	No	BUY	3	19¢	$1	0x4c6311…
06-15 08:55:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	8	14¢	$1	0x29c90b…
06-15 08:52:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	10	14¢	$1	0xf5c86d…
06-15 08:26:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	8	14¢	$1	0x0eec58…
06-15 07:58:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	10	14¢	$1	0x748341…
06-15 07:43:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	13	14¢	$2	0xbdb5bd…
06-15 06:40:46	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	39	93¢	$37	0x4d1fab…
06-15 06:30:30	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	BUY	6	22¢	$1	0x057890…
06-15 06:26:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	9	70¢	$6	0xd54cb1…
06-15 06:19:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x027199…
06-15 06:17:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	2	70¢	$2	0x1bfd91…