Watchful-Production — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.80K

Unrealized P&L

+$247

Hit rate

70.1%

Resolved

341

Trades

2,658

lifetime

Volume

$11.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$352

21 positions

First seen

2026-03-12

last 10-28 13:54

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 120 days

Categories

Other

60% 68% +$1,503

Politics

19% 59% +$18

Crypto

13% 84% +$151

Tech

8% 79% +$124

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

43 active days in 12wk • peak 23 trades/day

Open positions (21) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	No	+77	$54	90¢	$70	+$16	09-12 08:27
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	+51	-$155	94¢	$48	+$204	10-28 13:54
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	+50	$39	90¢	$45	+$6	08-18 00:02
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+32	$25	92¢	$30	+$4	07-16 02:07
will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	+24	$21	99¢	$23	+$2	06-11 06:24
us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	No	+30	$6	76¢	$23	+$17	08-17 01:49
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	No	+16	$16	98¢	$16	+$0	08-16 16:05
russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	+14	$12	93¢	$13	+$1	08-21 10:30
Iran leadership change by November 30?	No	+13	$12	98¢	$13	+$1	08-24 10:49
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by november 30 20260810151158765	No	+9	$6	99¢	$9	+$3	08-11 19:51
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	Anthropic	+8	$6	98¢	$8	+$2	06-25 20:43
Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?	No	+7	$6	98¢	$7	+$1	08-23 10:33
Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026?	No	+13	$7	50¢	$7	+$0	07-10 20:45
Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	+7	$6	94¢	$7	+$1	08-19 00:32
will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	No	+7	-$14	94¢	$7	+$21	08-13 19:10
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	+7	$6	97¢	$6	+$0	07-18 06:00
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	+26	$17	24¢	$6	-$11	10-26 13:58
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	-7	-$3	97¢	$-6	-$4	05-25 15:32
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	+6	$6	97¢	$6	+$0	08-21 03:35
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	+15	$3	8¢	$1	-$1	08-10 17:14
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81	Yes	+38	$17	1¢	$0	-$17	06-03 06:39

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?	41	$815	1,690	1,685	+5	Yes	+$728	08-04 15:28
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	109	$690	794	863	-69	No	-$67	06-03 21:45
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	99	$539	681	381	+300	Yes	+$98	06-01 09:31
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	154	$475	5,349	0	+5,349	No	-$475	06-10 23:51
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	48	$416	526	474	+51	open	—	10-28 13:54
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	54	$370	718	615	+103	No	+$25	06-16 16:59
will wti reach 90 in august 2026	81	$252	472	60	+412	No	+$191	08-21 01:56
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	37	$224	245	265	-19	Yes	+$16	04-07 23:07
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	34	$188	169	149	+20	No	+$114	06-02 12:37
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1520?	31	$180	220	0	+220	No	+$39	09-03 20:38
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	32	$162	170	0	+170	No	+$8	04-10 23:17
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	24	$136	161	106	+55	Yes	+$4	09-15 21:03
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026?	34	$116	127	0	+127	Yes	+$11	04-21 08:02
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	115	$115	1,153	523	+630	No	-$78	07-14 19:38
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	22	$113	122	37	+84	Yes	+$8	04-30 15:58
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	15	$104	88	43	+45	Yes	+$10	04-21 13:47
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	21	$104	1,971	1,963	+7	No	+$62	06-02 13:06
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	20	$101	481	456	+25	No	+$64	04-27 20:16
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	19	$97	112	56	+56	Yes	+$24	04-07 22:54
will 40 44 ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 10 16	50	$95	567	80	+487	No	-$65	03-24 12:45
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?	21	$93	128	29	+99	No	+$12	05-19 23:56
will 20 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by june 30 2026	32	$87	75	75	+0	Yes	+$5	06-21 15:44
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1510?	14	$85	136	0	+136	No	+$50	09-03 19:52
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	14	$84	139	117	+22	No	+$6	05-05 22:46
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?	22	$82	434	0	+434	No	+$352	09-05 10:11
us announces end of iranian blockade by september 30 2026 20260727171615364 722 649 646 561 213 644	34	$81	192	0	+192	No	+$111	08-12 14:23
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?	6	$79	73	73	+0	Yes	+$48	08-12 21:24
Will fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?	7	$78	73	69	+4	Yes	+$44	08-04 15:52
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	13	$78	555	492	+63	No	-$5	06-02 12:37
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	3	$75	63	63	+0	No	+$51	05-15 17:07

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 13:54:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	62	88¢	$55	0x59d63b…
10-28 13:04:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0xd2f8af…
10-28 12:11:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	0	88¢	$0	0x586033…
10-28 12:11:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	7	89¢	$7	0x4cec7e…
10-28 09:28:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	3	88¢	$3	0xc04e8f…
10-26 20:14:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	54	88¢	$47	0xb91ac6…
10-26 13:58:27	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	9	64¢	$6	0x7c9f7d…
10-26 11:10:20	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0x3e14ed…
10-25 21:55:23	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	9	65¢	$6	0x97d1e7…
10-22 22:10:14	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	SELL	12	43¢	$5	0xd0ab55…
10-22 18:46:44	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	SELL	15	2¢	$0	0xd38ff6…
10-22 12:04:57	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	SELL	15	40¢	$6	0x69ebc3…
10-22 12:03:29	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	SELL	16	40¢	$6	0x9ced52…
10-22 12:02:29	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	SELL	2	40¢	$1	0xf8a48f…
10-22 12:01:15	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	SELL	2	40¢	$1	0x280193…
10-22 10:53:12	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	SELL	0	40¢	$0	0xa6bcad…
10-22 09:38:33	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	SELL	1	40¢	$0	0x9406ae…
10-21 20:12:47	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	SELL	0	25¢	$0	0x2f9a4a…
10-21 19:25:27	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	SELL	43	6¢	$3	0x5f3096…
10-21 19:04:51	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	21	23¢	$5	0x7465b8…
10-21 19:04:26	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	0	23¢	$0	0x5bf932…
10-21 19:04:15	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	SELL	23	6¢	$1	0x8854a3…
10-21 19:03:32	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	6	23¢	$1	0xe7a6d4…
10-20 16:31:36	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	BUY	102	6¢	$6	0x792569…
10-20 12:58:48	Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18?	No	BUY	32	3¢	$1	0x3b03a2…
10-20 12:53:03	Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18?	No	BUY	22	3¢	$1	0xf401c5…
10-20 11:36:24	Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18?	No	BUY	2	3¢	$0	0xbbd582…
10-20 11:31:17	Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18?	No	BUY	110	6¢	$7	0x092df6…
10-20 11:21:51	Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18?	No	BUY	1	6¢	$0	0x4b7c88…
10-19 23:50:48	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	SELL	82	8¢	$6	0x2cb04e…
10-19 18:30:12	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	BUY	42	11¢	$4	0xc25f12…
10-19 18:30:11	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	BUY	57	11¢	$6	0xebb994…
10-19 18:27:35	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	BUY	8	11¢	$1	0xafd7bc…
10-19 18:27:26	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	16	39¢	$6	0x4bb050…
10-19 18:27:00	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	BUY	49	11¢	$5	0xdf4fc6…
10-19 18:26:57	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	BUY	5	11¢	$1	0x0331ca…
10-19 18:25:26	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	10	25¢	$2	0xfadb56…
10-19 18:25:26	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	18	23¢	$4	0x40ae48…
10-19 18:25:21	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x10b242…
10-19 18:25:12	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	4	78¢	$3	0x8d98a4…
10-19 17:25:30	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	8	47¢	$4	0x8d2162…
10-19 17:24:08	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xf81abc…
10-19 17:23:33	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	13	48¢	$6	0x2f8c31…
10-19 17:21:05	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	3	48¢	$1	0x05b134…
10-19 17:20:23	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	3	48¢	$1	0x2f1271…
10-19 16:43:33	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	4	64¢	$3	0xa536c0…
10-19 14:36:53	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	44	70¢	$31	0xed6db0…
10-19 11:40:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	7	87¢	$6	0x504b1e…
10-18 10:29:27	Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18?	No	BUY	7	90¢	$6	0x1aada6…
10-13 15:45:40	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	97¢	$6	0xf46b34…
10-13 03:01:48	Gemini 4.0 released by October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	91¢	$6	0x70c316…
10-13 03:01:47	Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	94¢	$3	0x69bd81…
10-11 23:17:35	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?	No	BUY	7	83¢	$6	0xffce43…
10-11 06:01:47	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	Yes	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0x96a0a7…
10-11 06:01:33	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	8	78¢	$6	0xe41651…
10-09 18:27:43	Will Katie Zacharia be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	BUY	6	97¢	$6	0x3d25f1…
10-09 18:27:43	Will Katie Zacharia be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0x0e40f6…
10-07 10:44:03	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?	No	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x521b0f…
10-07 04:25:06	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?	No	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x2494b3…
10-06 18:14:11	0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by October 31?	Yes	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0x29caf7…
10-05 03:31:34	0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by October 31?	Yes	BUY	9	23¢	$2	0x425d79…
10-02 18:49:14	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	60¢	$4	0x15629a…
10-02 15:39:39	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0x9ce0db…
10-02 13:23:33	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	60¢	$4	0x6c223c…
10-02 12:32:23	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	61¢	$4	0xc769d5…
10-01 16:49:14	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	53¢	$0	0x0b7799…
09-30 20:42:03	Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	59	6¢	$3	0x26d93b…
09-30 20:16:50	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	53¢	$6	0x1e352c…
09-30 20:11:32	Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	6¢	$1	0x27f012…
09-30 20:11:02	Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	52	6¢	$3	0x84d1a6…
09-30 20:09:30	Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	16	14¢	$2	0x504739…
09-30 20:08:53	Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	15¢	$2	0x95cdea…
09-30 20:08:48	Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	25¢	$7	0x0eff85…
09-30 20:08:47	Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	15¢	$0	0xe2f77c…
09-30 14:06:53	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	120	0¢	$0	0xd411c7…
09-30 11:41:53	Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	7	62¢	$4	0xc00494…
09-30 11:41:53	Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0xb8cf31…
09-30 11:27:45	Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	6	63¢	$4	0xbc7fc7…
09-30 11:27:24	Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	9	63¢	$6	0x768609…
09-30 09:30:35	Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	9	66¢	$6	0x0aec1d…
09-30 06:05:29	0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by October 31?	Yes	BUY	27	23¢	$6	0xd929a5…
09-29 12:22:08	0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by September 30?	No	BUY	6	88¢	$6	0xc4c5e2…
09-28 17:27:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	8	76¢	$6	0x24f56c…
09-28 17:14:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	2	75¢	$2	0x738e4b…
09-28 17:14:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	10	75¢	$8	0x45ac18…
09-28 15:49:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	12	77¢	$9	0x520ea2…
09-28 15:48:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	2	77¢	$2	0x4d9a6f…
09-28 15:48:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	9	77¢	$7	0x64e346…
09-28 14:05:36	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?	No	BUY	7	87¢	$6	0x6387e1…
09-28 14:05:32	Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?	No	BUY	10	64¢	$6	0x55dcd9…
09-28 12:10:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	6	77¢	$5	0xab92e4…
09-28 12:08:27	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	0	77¢	$0	0x519747…
09-28 12:08:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	8	77¢	$6	0xe67638…
09-28 12:08:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	5	77¢	$3	0x9b923d…
09-23 16:00:05	Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	28¢	$5	0xd3a9b5…
09-23 16:00:05	Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x314a61…
09-22 00:58:28	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in September?	No	BUY	6	94¢	$6	0x41e4f3…
09-21 02:23:08	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	Yes	BUY	50	13¢	$6	0x0f18bb…
09-20 03:06:45	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	Yes	BUY	46	14¢	$6	0xb8bea5…
09-20 02:44:28	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	Yes	BUY	12	14¢	$2	0x9b291d…