Thunderous-Casserole 0x386045…2b7877
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Realized P&L
-$4
Unrealized P&L
+$14
Hit rate
18.6%
Resolved
4
Trades
662
lifetime
Volume
$5.24K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$8
Open exposure
$260
17 positions
First seen
2026-04-19
last 07-02 05:28
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 3 days
Categories
Other
48% 0% $-10
Tech
32% 100% +$5
Politics
18% 50% +$1
Crypto
1% — —
Pop-Culture
1% — —
Sports
1% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
68 active days in 12wk • peak 36 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450? Yes +126 $93 82¢ $103 +$10 07-01 13:38
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? No -36 $-35 97¢ $-35 $-0 06-23 20:25
Will any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? No +35 $28 90¢ $32 +$4 06-27 04:19
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No -36 $-30 86¢ $-31 $-1 06-10 11:29
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? No +27 $19 66¢ $18 $-1 06-20 01:58
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? No +22 $15 70¢ $16 +$1 07-01 03:01
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? No +8 $2 62¢ $5 +$3 06-23 17:28
Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? No +7 $4 64¢ $4 +$0 06-27 14:23
Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? No +6 $3 55¢ $3 $-0 06-27 14:26
Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? No +4 $2 70¢ $3 +$1 05-30 00:09
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450? No +16 $3 18¢ $3 +$0 07-01 13:55
Will any AI model reach 1540 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? No +2 $2 90¢ $2 $-0 06-27 04:18
Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? Yes +4 $3 36¢ $1 $-1 06-27 04:35
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Korea" before 2027? No +1 $1 79¢ $1 $-0 06-23 20:15
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31? Yes +6 $2 18¢ $1 $-1 06-29 15:19
Will any AI model reach 1550 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? Yes +2 $1 45¢ $1 +$0 06-29 00:13
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes -9 $-1 0¢ $-0 +$1 06-15 15:05