Thunderous-Casserole 0x386045…2b7877
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Realized P&L
-$4
Unrealized P&L
+$11
Hit rate
18.6%
Resolved
4
Trades
522
lifetime
Volume
$4.17K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$8
Open exposure
$276
23 positions
First seen
2026-04-19
last 06-11 03:12
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 3 days
Categories
Other
42% 0% $-10
Tech
34% 100% +$5
Politics
22% 50% +$1
Crypto
1% — —
Pop-Culture
1% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
48 active days in 12wk • peak 36 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026? Yes +62 $52 91¢ $57 +$5 06-07 04:04
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? No +51 $42 93¢ $47 +$5 05-28 02:03
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? No +44 $40 92¢ $40 +$0 06-05 23:28
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No -36 $-30 84¢ $-30 +$0 06-10 11:29
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No +27 $17 88¢ $24 +$7 06-02 19:17
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Yes +24 $20 84¢ $20 +$0 06-07 03:59
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? No -18 $-17 96¢ $-18 $-1 05-29 05:57
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No +11 $13 88¢ $10 $-3 05-29 15:13
Jacob Elordi and Olivia Jade confirmed relationship by June 30? No +10 $10 98¢ $10 +$0 06-05 05:20
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? Yes +10 $5 36¢ $4 $-2 06-04 03:32
Will any AI model reach 1550 Coding Arena Score by June 30, 2026? No +3 $2 90¢ $2 +$0 06-10 10:25
Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? No +4 $2 44¢ $2 $-0 05-30 00:09
Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark? No +3 $2 72¢ $2 +$0 05-31 15:20
Will OpenAI GPT score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No +2 $1 87¢ $2 +$0 05-31 15:18
Will Meta have a #1 AI model by June 30? No -2 $-2 99¢ $-2 $-0 06-01 07:25
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026? No +2 $2 81¢ $1 $-0 06-01 23:50
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026? No +16 $3 9¢ $1 $-2 06-07 04:02
Will Nvidia have a #1 AI model by June 30? No +1 $1 99¢ $1 +$0 06-01 23:10
100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30? No -1 $-1 99¢ $-1 +$0 06-06 05:29
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? No +3 $1 39¢ $1 +$0 06-11 02:44
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? No -1 $-0 16¢ $-0 +$0 06-07 04:00
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes -2 $-0 6¢ $-0 +$0 05-30 13:06
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026? Yes +2 $1 2¢ $0 $-1 06-09 01:37