Realized P&L
-$3.13K
Unrealized P&L
+$548
Hit rate
55.1%
Resolved
950
Trades
9,970
lifetime
Volume
$109.4K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$11
Open exposure
$6.42K
30 positions
First seen
2026-06-09
last 10-30 02:30
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 109 days
Categories
Other
76% 55% -$2,916
Politics
13% 57% +$445
Sports
9% 49% -$869
Tech
1% 72% +$200
Crypto
0% 83% +$8
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
79 active days in 12wk • peak 81 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +1,188 $1,042 82¢ $980 -$62 09-26 00:32
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? No +1,148 $997 82¢ $941 -$56 10-01 08:26
Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026? No +441 $400 94¢ $415 +$15 09-08 18:56
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +665 $432 60¢ $396 -$36 10-27 21:17
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? No +322 $297 98¢ $316 +$19 09-20 21:38
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +350 $258 88¢ $310 +$52 10-28 13:54
Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship? Yes +2,321 $280 12¢ $290 +$10 09-22 17:33
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting? Yes +287 $165 98¢ $281 +$116 09-29 19:26
Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027? Yes +746 $251 38¢ $280 +$29 10-27 11:40
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +708 $288 34¢ $238 -$50 10-30 02:30
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? No +477 $137 44¢ $210 +$73 10-06 19:23
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +185 $159 96¢ $177 +$18 10-18 01:52
russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026 No +193 $151 88¢ $171 +$20 08-01 09:54
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? No +405 $97 36¢ $146 +$49 10-05 01:30
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No +159 $117 84¢ $133 +$16 08-20 23:26
Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? No +132 $98 95¢ $125 +$27 09-12 20:37
us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157 No +182 $37 60¢ $108 +$71 08-17 01:49
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? Yes +264 $132 37¢ $98 -$35 10-21 18:51
Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +3,471 $13 3¢ $94 +$81 09-26 16:04
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by october 31 20260810151043583 No +90 $72 100¢ $90 +$18 08-13 09:15
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? No +117 $57 74¢ $86 +$29 10-07 01:56
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? Yes +110 $66 70¢ $78 +$12 09-30 21:56
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No +75 $61 96¢ $72 +$11 07-11 17:38
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? Yes +91 $53 78¢ $70 +$17 08-13 22:15
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes +68 $30 99¢ $67 +$37 10-19 14:36
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? Yes +144 $54 40¢ $58 +$4 10-18 05:23
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27? Yes +56 $49 100¢ $56 +$7 10-25 21:26
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No +56 $51 94¢ $53 +$2 07-18 06:00
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +61 $39 72¢ $43 +$5 10-08 01:03
will venezuela recognize israel by december 31 No +50 -$5 87¢ $43 +$48 08-13 19:10