Spirited-Motorcar — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$83.9K

Unrealized P&L

+$23.7K

Hit rate

87.2%

Resolved

568

Trades

6,748

lifetime

Volume

$946.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$140

Open exposure

$51.3K

30 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-28 13:54

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 177 days

Categories

Politics

39% 72% +$17,804

Other

36% 75% +$37,225

Crypto

18% 88% +$19,682

Tech

7% 86% +$9,203

Sports

0% 100% +$14

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

54 active days in 12wk • peak 253 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	+33,691	$6,474	88¢	$29.8K	+$23,343	10-28 13:54
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+5,000	$3,747	84¢	$4.2K	+$428	07-19 18:52
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	+2,572	$1,891	88¢	$2.3K	+$372	08-20 23:26
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by november 30 20260810151158765	No	+2,222	$1,511	94¢	$2.1K	+$578	08-11 19:51
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by october 31 20260810151043583	No	+1,800	$1,334	100¢	$1.8K	+$464	08-13 09:15
russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	+1,595	$1,324	90¢	$1.4K	+$104	08-21 10:30
Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	+1,200	$1,008	86¢	$1.0K	+$30	08-19 00:32
Iran leadership change by November 30?	No	+1,050	$956	92¢	$971	+$16	08-24 10:49
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	-1,038	-$492	92¢	$-955	-$463	05-25 21:50
us announces end of iranian blockade by december 31 2026 20260727171803489 375 949 645 919 269 157	No	+1,510	$303	57¢	$867	+$564	08-17 01:49
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	+666	$619	95¢	$633	+$13	08-21 03:35
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	No	+600	$358	97¢	$584	+$226	07-11 17:38
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	Anthropic	+500	$390	98¢	$489	+$99	06-25 20:43
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?	Yes	+678	$358	72¢	$489	+$131	10-16 21:47
Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?	No	+481	$404	98¢	$471	+$67	08-23 10:33
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	+450	$392	94¢	$425	+$33	07-06 00:51
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?	No	+506	$335	82¢	$417	+$82	05-29 10:18
will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	No	+417	$367	98¢	$407	+$41	06-11 06:24
will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	No	+418	-$132	92¢	$385	+$517	08-13 19:10
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	+400	$360	96¢	$382	+$22	07-18 06:00
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	No	+326	$289	98¢	$321	+$32	04-28 23:46
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	+657	$418	48¢	$312	-$105	10-26 13:58
Will SpaceX have 200 or more launches in 2026?	No	+303	$276	96¢	$291	+$15	04-29 13:04
Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?	No	+97	$62	99¢	$96	+$34	04-28 13:03
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81	Yes	+4,656	$2,166	2¢	$86	-$2,080	06-03 05:45
Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?	Yes	+3,914	$741	1¢	$49	-$692	09-20 20:36
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	+400	$60	8¢	$30	-$30	07-20 09:25
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+200	$108	8¢	$16	-$92	05-25 21:50
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	+30	$4	52¢	$16	+$12	07-05 08:47
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	+148	$25	8¢	$13	-$13	08-10 17:15

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	300	$95.8K	106,608	74,995	+31,613	No	+$9,373	06-03 21:45
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	193	$84.6K	64,688	47,880	+16,809	Yes	+$4,602	03-08 16:35
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	150	$39.2K	53,506	29,593	+23,914	Yes	+$4,904	06-01 09:31
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	82	$35.3K	54,735	21,044	+33,691	open	—	10-28 13:54
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by March 31?	18	$16.8K	17,011	0	+17,011	No	+$217	04-07 13:39
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?	76	$15.7K	25,126	25,126	+0	Yes	+$13,379	08-04 15:35
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	29	$14.8K	12,260	9,990	+2,271	Yes	-$1,902	09-15 20:54
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	57	$14.3K	15,000	1,000	+14,000	Yes	+$40	04-06 22:14
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	27	$12.6K	19,194	7,184	+12,010	No	+$176	06-02 13:06
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	15	$12.5K	13,246	0	+13,246	No	+$791	02-27 11:01
us strikes iran by february 9 2026 113 751	24	$12.3K	13,049	0	+13,049	No	+$798	02-08 23:05
will openai have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 562	16	$10.3K	5,303	5,534	-231	No	+$256	03-11 19:03
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	128	$9.6K	11,199	0	+11,199	No	+$1,566	02-13 07:35
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	4	$9.2K	9,000	269	+8,731	Yes	-$5	01-31 23:49
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	17	$9.1K	8,942	636	+8,306	Yes	+$249	04-21 15:22
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	5	$8.8K	8,866	236	+8,631	Yes	+$82	03-01 01:41
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	40	$8.6K	13,359	7,439	+5,919	Yes	-$1,608	02-28 07:18
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	69	$8.2K	8,873	3,832	+5,041	No	+$1,207	06-25 12:42
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	78	$8.1K	11,715	5,735	+5,980	Yes	+$3,611	04-07 23:07
will cdu win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	43	$7.6K	18,503	9,725	+8,777	Yes	+$458	03-09 18:34
will the greens win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	60	$7.3K	8,979	2,907	+6,071	No	+$902	03-09 13:58
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	320	$7.1K	47,292	0	+47,292	No	-$7,051	06-10 23:51
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	15	$6.8K	9,000	9,000	+0	No	-$1,064	04-19 12:34
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	41	$6.7K	7,141	0	+7,141	No	+$399	04-10 23:17
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	35	$6.7K	9,427	0	+9,427	Yes	+$2,753	03-17 04:09
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	18	$6.0K	4,820	1,798	+3,022	Yes	+$189	06-23 13:19
us strikes iran by february 18 2026	4	$5.9K	6,200	0	+6,200	No	+$291	02-18 19:08
us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931	12	$5.6K	6,141	0	+6,141	No	+$517	02-10 07:25
us strikes iran by february 11 2026 664	4	$5.4K	5,500	0	+5,500	No	+$55	02-11 05:11
microstrategy announces 1000 btc purchase january 20 26	2	$5.3K	5,369	0	+5,369	Yes	+$50	01-20 13:01

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 13:54:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	4,655	89¢	$4,143	0x83c181…
10-28 13:04:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	100	89¢	$89	0x18ff02…
10-28 12:11:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	7	89¢	$7	0x4cec7e…
10-28 12:11:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	2	89¢	$2	0xe6e795…
10-28 09:28:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	235	89¢	$209	0x53b4ac…
10-26 20:14:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	4,000	88¢	$3,520	0x4c1ab3…
10-26 13:58:30	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xf3aeed…
10-26 13:58:30	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xd98206…
10-26 13:58:30	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xce65c4…
10-26 13:58:30	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xa2ad60…
10-26 13:58:30	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x9fd50c…
10-26 13:58:30	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x8c38b8…
10-26 13:58:30	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	1	63¢	$0	0x3f4ec4…
10-26 13:58:29	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xef8e86…
10-26 13:58:29	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xeb50d4…
10-26 13:58:29	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xc5fa0c…
10-26 13:58:29	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xc3a247…
10-26 13:58:29	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x91c529…
10-26 13:58:29	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x919516…
10-26 13:58:29	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x87f114…
10-26 13:58:29	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x76f2a5…
10-26 13:58:29	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x6c7ccd…
10-26 13:58:29	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x339829…
10-26 13:58:29	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x1487ea…
10-26 13:58:27	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xfa1969…
10-26 13:58:27	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	80	63¢	$50	0xcb59ae…
10-26 13:58:27	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xcb48c9…
10-26 13:58:27	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x85d080…
10-26 13:58:27	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x82530b…
10-26 13:58:27	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x7e43ee…
10-26 13:58:27	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x7151ef…
10-26 13:58:27	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x2d3e15…
10-26 13:58:27	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x1ca2ae…
10-26 13:58:27	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x19eb41…
10-26 13:58:27	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x0adae5…
10-26 13:58:27	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x0a81a8…
10-26 08:18:42	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	74	63¢	$46	0xc291a6…
10-25 21:55:23	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	BUY	357	64¢	$229	0x4648fa…
10-22 22:08:44	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	SELL	400	44¢	$176	0xee645c…
10-22 18:46:39	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	SELL	500	2¢	$12	0xcb4bea…
10-22 12:03:23	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	SELL	702	41¢	$288	0x441e72…
10-22 12:02:27	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	SELL	35	41¢	$14	0xb4f599…
10-22 12:01:15	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	SELL	37	41¢	$15	0xa08312…
10-22 10:53:11	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	SELL	5	41¢	$2	0xe0759f…
10-22 10:40:08	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	SELL	5	41¢	$2	0xc0ddd0…
10-22 09:38:32	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	SELL	15	41¢	$6	0x5d259b…
10-21 20:15:59	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	SELL	114	20¢	$23	0xb37cfb…
10-21 20:13:11	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	SELL	48	24¢	$12	0xbee7ef…
10-21 20:12:45	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	SELL	16	26¢	$4	0xc2abca…
10-21 19:24:41	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	SELL	1,500	6¢	$98	0xb8fed8…
10-21 19:04:51	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	1,464	24¢	$351	0x44bc8c…
10-21 19:04:24	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	24	24¢	$6	0x5fc226…
10-21 19:04:14	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	SELL	800	6¢	$52	0xfd152b…
10-21 19:04:14	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	14	24¢	$3	0x7af0be…
10-21 19:03:30	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	SELL	415	24¢	$100	0x2b97e2…
10-20 16:31:27	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	BUY	5,000	6¢	$295	0xaa79fd…
10-20 11:33:27	Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18?	No	BUY	510	2¢	$10	0x8db445…
10-20 11:14:00	Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18?	No	BUY	1,000	5¢	$50	0xd03815…
10-19 23:50:47	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	SELL	1,221	8¢	$99	0xe3307d…
10-19 18:33:14	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	BUY	11	7¢	$1	0xaff248…
10-19 18:30:11	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	BUY	378	10¢	$40	0xebb994…
10-19 18:27:35	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	BUY	1,148	10¢	$121	0xafd7bc…
10-19 18:26:54	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	No	BUY	74	10¢	$8	0x6a3956…
10-19 18:25:59	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	767	38¢	$292	0x458095…
10-19 18:25:24	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	1,917	22¢	$422	0x397489…
10-19 18:25:21	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	27	38¢	$10	0xe17df4…
10-19 18:25:12	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	695	78¢	$542	0x5b55e3…
10-19 18:25:03	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	6	38¢	$2	0x2373eb…
10-19 17:25:29	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	71	47¢	$33	0xf9c20b…
10-19 17:25:21	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	14	47¢	$7	0x2a65f1…
10-19 17:25:09	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	17	47¢	$8	0xbe23c1…
10-19 17:24:15	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	0	47¢	$0	0xde443d…
10-19 17:24:08	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0xf512e6…
10-19 17:23:30	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	130	47¢	$61	0x042169…
10-19 17:23:23	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	12	47¢	$6	0xfa16c6…
10-19 17:22:39	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	15	47¢	$7	0x75a0ed…
10-19 17:22:17	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	40	47¢	$19	0xbecee7…
10-19 17:21:03	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	23	47¢	$11	0xd85e0f…
10-19 17:20:21	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	27	47¢	$13	0xb377c3…
10-19 17:19:12	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	17	47¢	$8	0x7f7023…
10-19 17:19:08	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	BUY	15	47¢	$7	0xc878dc…
10-19 16:43:33	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	731	64¢	$468	0xb166d6…
10-19 16:42:56	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	5	66¢	$3	0xef6de5…
10-19 16:42:56	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	5	66¢	$3	0x91cdc5…
10-19 16:41:54	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	64	66¢	$42	0x3018bb…
10-19 14:36:53	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,313	70¢	$924	0xb9771d…
10-19 11:40:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	1,400	86¢	$1,204	0xfe59f0…
10-19 11:40:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0xf92e22…
10-18 10:29:26	Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18?	No	BUY	168	89¢	$150	0x7ff9f4…
10-16 21:47:08	Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?	Yes	SELL	4	82¢	$3	0x707a04…
10-13 15:45:39	Gemini 4.0 released by October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,098	96¢	$1,059	0x56790e…
10-13 03:01:47	Gemini 4.0 released by October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	127	89¢	$113	0xa8ac67…
10-13 03:01:45	Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	93¢	$25	0x91eed0…
10-11 06:01:45	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	Yes	BUY	800	96¢	$769	0x4db1c8…
10-11 06:01:32	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	1,500	78¢	$1,170	0x2a99f3…
10-09 18:27:43	Will Katie Zacharia be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	BUY	333	98¢	$326	0x0e40f6…
10-09 18:26:02	Will Katie Zacharia be the next White House Press Secretary?	Yes	BUY	67	98¢	$66	0x64a77c…
10-07 20:14:17	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?	No	BUY	120	83¢	$100	0xc8ba35…
10-07 12:01:07	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?	No	BUY	40	81¢	$32	0xb8aa07…
10-07 10:44:03	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?	No	BUY	11	81¢	$9	0x521b0f…