Realized P&L
-$920
Unrealized P&L
-$206
Hit rate
0.7%
Resolved
139
Trades
17,216
lifetime
Volume
$817.8K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$48
Open exposure
$1.65K
30 positions
First seen
2026-04-04
last 06-28 17:12
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 32 days
Categories
Other
50% 3% $-513
Politics
31% 8% $-394
Sports
7% 0% $-11
Tech
7% 0%
Crypto
4% 20% $-2
Pop-Culture
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
81 active days in 12wk • peak 621 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No +328 $248 100¢ $327 +$80 06-24 10:36
OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July? No -233 $-200 100¢ $-232 $-32 05-30 00:03
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026? No -128 $-97 88¢ $-113 $-16 06-15 19:27
Will Dune 3 or Avengers: Doomsday gross more on their opening weekend? Avengers: Doomsday +109 $156 88¢ $96 $-60 06-25 11:17
Will Stephen A. Smith announce a Presidential run before 2027? No +93 $83 90¢ $84 +$1 06-13 23:48
Will the US federal government take a stake in TikTok USDS Joint Venture LLC or Bytedance? No +106 $88 76¢ $81 $-7 06-25 22:32
Doug Ford out as PC Party Leader by December 31? No +81 $67 75¢ $61 $-6 06-26 15:17
Will Michel Barnier be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? No -57 $-53 98¢ $-56 $-3 06-09 11:38
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No -58 $-54 97¢ $-56 $-2 06-17 14:29
Will Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? No +110 $67 48¢ $52 $-15 06-25 11:31
Will Matthieu Pigasse be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? No -54 $-43 88¢ $-47 $-4 06-02 02:53
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? Yes +117 $87 38¢ $44 $-42 06-23 17:28
Ostium FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes +187 $46 24¢ $44 $-2 06-26 14:40
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450? Yes +50 $38 80¢ $40 +$2 06-27 07:14
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026? No +40 $41 94¢ $38 $-3 06-02 18:51
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470? Yes -50 $-14 67¢ $-34 $-19 06-08 21:26
Aligned FDV above $1B one day after launch? No +34 $33 85¢ $29 $-4 06-26 02:08
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No -29 $-28 96¢ $-28 $-0 06-27 16:23
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? Yes +298 $30 $25 $-5 06-25 03:23
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? OpenAI +220 $68 11¢ $23 $-45 06-28 16:59
Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026? No -33 $-18 70¢ $-23 $-5 06-09 20:37
Hantavirus vaccine in 2026? Yes +400 $24 $22 $-2 06-10 00:37
Will the Houston Astros clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? No +28 $21 68¢ $19 $-2 06-26 05:42
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes -81 $-15 18¢ $-15 +$0 06-13 22:31
Unit FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes +25 $14 56¢ $14 $-0 06-28 10:40
Will Laurent Wauquiez be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes -400 $-12 $-14 $-1 06-12 11:19
Relay FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes +30 $15 44¢ $13 $-2 06-28 15:59
Neutrl FDV above $20M one day after launch? Yes +20 $15 55¢ $11 $-4 06-25 06:54
Will the San Francisco Giants clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? No +6 $11 95¢ $6 $-6 06-25 03:46
Will Davido perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? No -6 $-5 97¢ $-5 +$0 06-15 19:53