Realized P&L
-$272
Unrealized P&L
+$16
Hit rate
62.9%
Resolved
317
Trades
2,391
lifetime
Volume
$9.28K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$4
Open exposure
$412
26 positions
First seen
2026-05-07
last 06-30 07:05
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 5 days
Categories
Crypto
71% 46% $-285
Tech
16%
Other
8%
Politics
5% 100% +$11
Sports
0% 100% +$3
Pop-Culture
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
46 active days in 12wk • peak 2037 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Yes -74 $-70 90¢ $-67 +$2 06-08 02:49
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? No +54 $50 100¢ $54 +$4 05-29 05:57
Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? No +57 $50 86¢ $50 $-0 06-18 08:31
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by June 30, 2026? No +37 $34 99¢ $37 +$2 06-14 02:38
Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027? No -30 $-28 92¢ $-28 $-0 06-18 15:13
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? No -25 $-23 100¢ $-25 $-2 06-11 17:11
Will any AI model reach 1550 Coding Arena Score by June 30, 2026? No +24 $15 97¢ $24 +$9 06-11 05:09
Will Viking Therapeutics be acquired before 2027? No -31 $-21 65¢ $-20 +$0 06-22 06:26
Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? Yes +56 $30 30¢ $17 $-13 05-30 00:10
Will Tunisia recognize Israel by June 30? No +15 $15 100¢ $15 +$0 06-07 08:06
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? No +26 $15 57¢ $15 $-0 06-05 02:05
Will any AI model reach 1570 Coding Arena Score by June 30, 2026? No +14 $12 100¢ $14 +$2 06-02 10:34
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026? No +10 $10 99¢ $10 +$0 06-22 06:31
Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026? No -10 $-10 100¢ $-10 $-0 06-11 05:04
Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? No -12 $-6 70¢ $-8 $-2 06-30 07:05
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? No -12 $-15 66¢ $-8 +$7 06-24 06:27
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes +9 $5 41¢ $4 $-1 06-18 09:54
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? No +5 $3 62¢ $3 +$0 06-27 14:10
Will Brown-Forman be acquired before 2027? No +3 $2 84¢ $2 +$1 06-27 13:36
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Yes +68 $-15 $0 +$15 06-27 14:57
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? No +0 $-11 100¢ $0 +$11 06-22 04:28
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? Yes +5 $17 $0 $-17 06-18 14:54
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? Yes +0 $4 10¢ $0 $-4 06-19 11:07
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? No +0 $3 10¢ $0 $-3 06-19 11:10
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026? Yes +0 $-0 $0 +$0 06-11 05:59
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes +0 $-5 $0 +$5 06-14 10:44