Trustworthy-Crayon — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.29K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

40.8%

Resolved

171

Trades

9,588

lifetime

Volume

$854.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$89

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-05 17:10

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 15 days

Categories

Other

54% 43% $-832

Politics

31% 100% +$57

Sports

14% 41% $-520

Crypto

0% — —

Tech

0% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

66 active days in 12wk • peak 115 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	52	$22.1K	25,476	23,008	+2,468	open	—	05-28 16:41
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	60	$18.6K	11,240	12,702	-1,462	open	—	04-07 07:12
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	132	$12.8K	16,363	16,612	-249	open	—	05-13 16:38
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	95	$12.3K	12,054	11,037	+1,017	open	—	01-30 23:23
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	48	$11.4K	17,432	17,432	+0	open	—	02-05 13:00
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	67	$10.3K	8,344	7,714	+630	open	—	02-05 13:59
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	18	$10.2K	6,331	5,371	+960	open	—	05-25 18:12
will the united states win the most gold medals in the 2026 winter olympics	197	$10.0K	42,893	52,925	-10,032	open	—	02-14 14:41
us strikes iran by january 26 2026 337 214 511	34	$9.6K	5,372	5,372	+0	open	—	01-27 02:22
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	72	$9.6K	7,769	7,891	-122	open	—	01-28 20:49
us forces enter iran by march 7	32	$9.3K	4,483	5,534	-1,051	open	—	03-06 00:32
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	70	$8.4K	5,538	5,915	-377	open	—	05-22 20:44
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	89	$8.3K	5,535	6,663	-1,129	open	—	03-30 11:53
us strikes iran by january 23 2026 494 711 798 734 155	77	$8.0K	7,577	7,949	-371	open	—	01-24 00:22
Will the US strike 5 countries in 2026?	23	$6.9K	4,573	5,018	-444	open	—	03-16 09:35
cbb lou mst 2026 03 21 spread home 4pt5	39	$6.5K	6,688	6,393	+295	open	—	03-21 17:01
us strikes iran by january 18 2026 991	76	$6.1K	5,014	4,096	+917	open	—	01-18 20:23
Will the US strike 4 countries in 2026?	23	$5.8K	3,196	3,877	-680	open	—	03-05 12:48
cbb uk iowast 2026 03 22 spread home 4pt5	56	$5.2K	4,783	6,578	-1,795	open	—	03-22 14:47
us strikes iran by february 6 2026 242 933 289 312 673 611 155 294	33	$4.9K	5,858	5,826	+32	open	—	02-04 19:15
will polymarket mindshare hit 80 277 757 727	35	$4.8K	4,194	4,402	-208	open	—	02-17 10:27
us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931	27	$4.8K	4,326	3,228	+1,098	open	—	02-04 18:27
Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota Twins	4	$4.6K	4,560	4,560	+0	Minnesota Twins	+$0	05-12 21:20
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	30	$4.4K	1,887	4,563	-2,676	open	—	06-01 13:58
cbb utahst vill 2026 03 20 spread away 1pt5	33	$4.4K	4,314	4,314	+0	open	—	03-20 13:34
cbb hofst ala 2026 03 20 spread home 11pt5	3	$4.4K	4,490	4,490	+0	open	—	03-20 07:28
cbb hpnt ark 2026 03 21 spread home 10pt5	19	$4.3K	4,490	4,490	+0	open	—	03-21 13:59
cbb stlou mich 2026 03 21 total 161pt5	22	$4.0K	4,055	4,139	-84	open	—	03-21 14:16
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale?	9	$3.6K	1,950	1,950	+0	open	—	05-27 23:40
cbb tenst iowast 2026 03 20 spread home 24pt5	29	$3.6K	3,750	3,750	+0	open	—	03-20 12:01

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-05 17:10:53	Will US unemployment reach at least 10.0% in 2026?	Yes	SELL	226	2¢	$5	0x7eb166…
08-05 07:34:08	Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	7	44¢	$3	0xa92d88…
08-05 07:33:59	Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,290	45¢	$584	0x5759ec…
08-04 16:13:20	will polymarket mindshare hit 90 by december 31 20260630144203050	Yes	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0xe288aa…
08-04 07:56:11	will ukraine re enter kamianske by september 30	Yes	SELL	38	36¢	$14	0x65079a…
08-03 23:05:42	will ukraine re enter kamianske by september 30	Yes	SELL	31	41¢	$13	0x0faa9b…
08-03 23:05:38	will ukraine re enter kamianske by september 30	Yes	SELL	130	40¢	$52	0xc61991…
08-02 21:28:09	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	No	SELL	290	98¢	$283	0x0d7272…
08-02 09:50:06	mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by august 31 2026 20260722051644333	Yes	BUY	177	7¢	$12	0x373c26…
08-02 09:42:20	mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by august 31 2026 20260722051644333	Yes	BUY	223	7¢	$16	0x1b1d41…
08-01 23:30:08	mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by august 31 2026 20260722051644333	Yes	BUY	200	7¢	$14	0x08a097…
08-01 23:23:33	mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by august 31 2026 20260722051644333	Yes	BUY	32	7¢	$2	0xabf476…
08-01 23:09:11	Abstract FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	SELL	107	87¢	$93	0x03098f…
08-01 23:08:44	Abstract FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	SELL	802	85¢	$681	0x124898…
08-01 23:08:32	Abstract FDV above $600M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	347	22¢	$76	0xa67ad3…
08-01 23:08:30	Abstract FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	546	34¢	$186	0x0bc241…
08-01 22:51:00	mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by august 31 2026 20260722051644333	Yes	BUY	1,000	10¢	$96	0x3afd92…
08-01 18:59:51	Will Steve Bannon announce a presidential run before 2027?	No	SELL	100	92¢	$92	0x198195…
08-01 13:20:12	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	No	BUY	90	98¢	$88	0x6dc21e…
08-01 13:07:29	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	No	BUY	50	97¢	$48	0x4325da…
08-01 13:07:23	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	No	BUY	50	97¢	$48	0x4c315e…
08-01 13:07:17	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	No	BUY	50	97¢	$48	0x6d7beb…
08-01 13:07:11	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	No	BUY	50	97¢	$48	0x66315a…
07-30 15:06:03	Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	14	89¢	$12	0x3a5c97…
07-29 21:54:35	Will Steve Bannon announce a presidential run before 2027?	No	SELL	10	92¢	$9	0x5d2192…
07-29 19:31:44	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	635	8¢	$50	0x784212…
07-29 18:56:08	Will US unemployment reach at least 10.0% in 2026?	Yes	SELL	69	3¢	$2	0x77b281…
07-29 15:30:20	trump renames ice to nice by july 31 20260626165335822	No	BUY	21	99¢	$20	0xb9adab…
07-29 13:27:53	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	35	8¢	$3	0x133320…
07-29 10:45:50	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10,209	7¢	$716	0xf54150…
07-28 22:06:08	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,000	9¢	$94	0x523bcb…
07-28 13:43:14	Will Treg Taylor advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?	No	SELL	22	91¢	$20	0x686ff2…
07-27 23:47:58	Will Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	66	90¢	$59	0x81cdcd…
07-27 23:47:22	Will Tom Brady announce a presidential run before 2027?	No	SELL	18	97¢	$17	0xe897dc…
07-27 23:47:09	Will Steve Bannon announce a presidential run before 2027?	No	SELL	90	92¢	$83	0xd7f71d…
07-27 23:45:54	Will Marjorie Taylor Greene announce a presidential run before 2027?	No	SELL	259	92¢	$238	0xb9d5d8…
07-27 16:03:16	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	No	BUY	67	90¢	$60	0x2102bd…
07-27 14:21:30	Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	89¢	$18	0xd6e8cc…
07-25 23:56:36	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	300	80¢	$239	0xf4442b…
07-25 21:17:06	will polymarket mindshare hit 90 by december 31 20260630144203050	Yes	BUY	278	12¢	$34	0xae5bd3…
07-25 15:20:27	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	No	SELL	358	95¢	$339	0x785d47…
07-25 10:22:25	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	100	76¢	$76	0x1751ab…
07-25 10:22:13	Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?	No	BUY	200	76¢	$152	0x685b2a…
07-23 13:28:27	Will Treg Taylor advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?	No	BUY	4	82¢	$3	0xfac315…
07-23 13:28:25	Will Treg Taylor advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?	No	BUY	8	82¢	$7	0xda047c…
07-23 13:28:24	Will Treg Taylor advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?	No	BUY	48	82¢	$39	0x42cf7b…
07-22 13:04:37	will lesil mcguire advance from the 2026 alaska governor primary election	No	BUY	73	97¢	$71	0x389fd2…
07-22 08:15:03	Will Treg Taylor advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?	No	SELL	40	81¢	$32	0xa4d2e9…
07-22 08:13:51	Will Treg Taylor advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?	No	BUY	90	80¢	$72	0x3c1898…
07-22 08:12:34	Will Treg Taylor advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?	No	BUY	390	80¢	$312	0xc075ee…
07-22 08:09:39	Will Adam Crum advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?	No	SELL	13	94¢	$12	0x627e84…
07-22 07:04:07	mykhailo fedorov reinstated as ukrainian defense minister by july 31 2026 20260716190353339	Yes	BUY	458	11¢	$48	0xfe8fda…
07-22 01:15:03	Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?	No	SELL	30	93¢	$28	0x600032…
07-22 00:23:09	Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027?	No	SELL	30	93¢	$28	0xbd6134…
07-21 19:50:54	Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	22	91¢	$20	0xca8515…
07-21 15:47:06	Will Adam Schiff be arrested before 2027?	No	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0x027933…
07-21 15:42:15	Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	46	89¢	$41	0xa9f2f0…
07-20 05:14:39	jos luis rodrguez zapatero sentenced to prison	No	BUY	58	92¢	$53	0xd45d36…
07-18 21:09:30	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	No	BUY	176	81¢	$142	0xe02d79…
07-18 17:30:07	ukraine election called by december 31 2026	No	SELL	30	83¢	$25	0xb687a2…
07-18 08:20:48	ukraine election called by december 31 2026	No	SELL	202	83¢	$168	0x3ca15b…
07-16 19:10:53	Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027?	No	SELL	210	85¢	$178	0xcac657…
07-16 07:04:46	ukraine election called by december 31 2026	No	BUY	274	81¢	$222	0xde8aaa…
07-14 08:08:16	jos luis rodrguez zapatero sentenced to prison	Yes	SELL	62	8¢	$5	0x83b1c6…
07-12 17:51:19	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	387	4¢	$16	0xbc26a4…
07-12 17:45:50	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	13	4¢	$1	0x5c2d1b…
07-12 12:00:49	Will Dune 3 or Avengers: Doomsday gross more on their opening weekend?	Avengers: Doomsday	SELL	5	83¢	$4	0x95119a…
07-12 07:49:23	Will Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	66	82¢	$54	0x4f48aa…
07-11 13:29:40	Will Dune 3 or Avengers: Doomsday gross more on their opening weekend?	Avengers: Doomsday	SELL	204	83¢	$169	0xc6a27d…
07-10 15:24:55	Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?	No	SELL	14	89¢	$12	0x23022b…
07-10 15:24:47	Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?	No	SELL	50	89¢	$44	0x423114…
07-09 12:23:47	Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027?	No	SELL	80	85¢	$68	0x1d52f2…
07-09 12:14:56	Will Dune 3 or Avengers: Doomsday gross more on their opening weekend?	Avengers: Doomsday	BUY	139	82¢	$113	0x526698…
07-09 01:13:35	Will Dune 3 or Avengers: Doomsday gross more on their opening weekend?	Avengers: Doomsday	BUY	70	85¢	$60	0x8c64ba…
07-07 14:58:34	will graham platner drop out by july 31 281 424 921	Yes	BUY	105	96¢	$100	0x8bf18d…
07-07 14:57:11	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	700	6¢	$44	0x2d3c32…
07-06 20:09:32	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,874	6¢	$109	0x74958f…
07-06 10:54:28	will ukraine re enter kamianske by september 30	Yes	BUY	100	56¢	$56	0xb6187e…
07-05 12:47:46	will ukraine re enter kamianske by september 30	Yes	BUY	99	56¢	$56	0xbb5a60…
07-05 12:23:04	ukraine election called by december 31 2026	No	SELL	208	84¢	$175	0xeb6936…
07-05 08:08:44	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	No	BUY	215	43¢	$92	0xd8d9cc…
07-05 08:08:17	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	420	6¢	$25	0x538a2c…
07-05 01:20:02	Will Mathilde Panot announce their candidacy for the 2027 French presidential election in 2026?	No	BUY	32	97¢	$31	0x69f75e…
07-05 01:00:23	Will Barack Obama be arrested before 2027?	Yes	SELL	282	4¢	$11	0x3aebc1…
07-04 01:34:20	ukraine election called by december 31 2026	No	SELL	1	84¢	$1	0x1f2cd7…
07-03 19:35:35	Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?	No	BUY	50	87¢	$44	0x70e092…
07-03 19:35:29	Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?	No	BUY	14	87¢	$12	0x2cfd2d…
07-03 10:53:25	ukraine election called by december 31 2026	No	SELL	58	84¢	$49	0x29f08f…
07-02 15:07:23	Blue wave in 2026?	No	SELL	94	25¢	$23	0xd03a28…
07-02 15:06:05	Will Marjorie Taylor Greene announce a presidential run before 2027?	No	BUY	268	87¢	$233	0xaf3758…
07-02 15:05:43	Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson announce a Presidential run before 2027?	No	SELL	100	99¢	$99	0x4bc017…
07-02 08:48:53	Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	71	87¢	$62	0x83c0c7…
07-01 19:27:28	Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	87¢	$1	0x178f2f…
07-01 06:57:32	ukraine election called by december 31 2026	No	BUY	267	83¢	$222	0x977c0b…
06-30 00:18:25	jos luis rodrguez zapatero sentenced to prison	Yes	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0x3f9435…
06-29 02:54:10	Blue wave in 2026?	No	SELL	4	28¢	$1	0xfd7fa0…
06-28 17:55:04	Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30?	No	BUY	254	98¢	$249	0xfc3a65…
06-27 11:53:55	Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	BUY	16	73¢	$12	0x5d3506…
06-27 11:53:13	Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	BUY	21	71¢	$15	0x8fc982…
06-27 11:49:43	Abstract FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	30	92¢	$28	0xc206a4…