Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.75% or higher before 2027?
open
Total volume
$3,565
Trades
125
Unique wallets
48
Liquidity
$2,059
Latest YES mid
5¢
Latest NO mid
95¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-29
last 08-13 17:39
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-1.9¢
(top1%: 0% YES on $55
vs crowd: 2% YES on $1.6K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 7 | $0 | $196 | $196 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 10 | $5 | $167 | $162 |
| 🐟 Fish | 6 | $7 | $483 | $476 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 25 | $18 | $720 | $702 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 4 | — | $55 | $55 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 7 | $11 | $150 | $139 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 2 | — | $140 | $140 |
| Median | 7 | — | $137 | $137 |
| Below median | 3 | $4 | — | +$4 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 3 | $0 | $1 | $1 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 2 | $0 | $17 | $17 |
| unranked | 20 | $15 | $1.1K | $1.1K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (anonymous) 0x82e9…b34c | No | +500 | $476 | $476 | 1 | 07-14 16:46 |
| Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | +158 | $5 | $7 | 6 | 08-09 01:10 |
| (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | +84 | $3 | $8 | 27 | 08-13 17:39 |
| Fixed-Eaglet 0xe53c…e569 | No | +75 | $74 | $226 | 4 | 08-09 01:10 |
| (anonymous) 0x5b68…72c7 | No | +58 | $56 | $56 | 2 | 07-31 13:26 |
| Nice-Perennial 0xcdb1…276c | No | +58 | $55 | $55 | 2 | 08-12 21:31 |
| Enchanting-Cable 0x84a2…c7cf | Yes | +46 | $2 | $2 | 3 | 08-08 06:34 |
| (anonymous) 0x5a0d…3078 | No | +46 | $45 | $59 | 2 | 08-12 21:40 |
| (anonymous) 0xb275…6cb2 | Yes | +42 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 07-28 13:15 |
| (anonymous) 0x0970…b44f | No | +37 | $36 | $36 | 1 | 08-13 17:39 |
| (anonymous) 0xf22b…7eab | Yes | +19 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-24 05:24 |
| Unlucky-Comparison 0xd883…4fd7 | No | +18 | $17 | $17 | 4 | 06-08 10:15 |
| Lone-Dibble 0x6eae…1916 | No | +2 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 08-05 05:54 |
| (anonymous) 0x572c…4360 | No | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 08-08 06:34 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-13 17:39:49 | Quick-Witted-Cook 0x7be4…8477 | Yes | SELL | 19 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xa4ff71… |
| 08-13 17:39:49 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xa4ff71… |
| 08-13 17:39:49 | (anonymous) 0x0970…b44f | No | BUY | 37 | 96¢ | $36 | 0xa4ff71… |
| 08-13 17:39:49 | (anonymous) 0xd990…749e | No | SELL | 66 | 96¢ | $64 | 0xa4ff71… |
| 08-13 17:12:28 | (anonymous) 0x46b1…428c | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xd384b2… |
| 08-13 17:12:28 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xd384b2… |
| 08-13 07:14:21 | (anonymous) 0x46b1…428c | No | SELL | 2 | 95¢ | $2 | 0x7ae9e0… |
| 08-13 07:14:21 | Quick-Witted-Cook 0x7be4…8477 | Yes | SELL | 2 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x7ae9e0… |
| 08-12 21:40:57 | (anonymous) 0x46b1…428c | No | BUY | 7 | 97¢ | $7 | 0xcec400… |
| 08-12 21:40:57 | (anonymous) 0x5a0d…3078 | No | SELL | 7 | 97¢ | $7 | 0xcec400… |
| 08-12 21:31:48 | Quick-Witted-Cook 0x7be4…8477 | Yes | BUY | 21 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x633b6d… |
| 08-12 21:31:48 | Nice-Perennial 0xcdb1…276c | No | BUY | 21 | 95¢ | $20 | 0x633b6d… |
| 08-10 18:10:37 | Punctual-Sand 0x21d0…ce91 | No | BUY | 101 | 97¢ | $97 | 0x39a16b… |
| 08-10 18:10:37 | (anonymous) 0x931e…8547 | No | SELL | 49 | 97¢ | $47 | 0x39a16b… |
| 08-10 18:10:37 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | BUY | 7 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x39a16b… |
| 08-09 01:10:37 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 40 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xb09d1b… |
| 08-09 01:10:37 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | BUY | 4 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xb09d1b… |
| 08-09 01:10:37 | Fixed-Eaglet 0xe53c…e569 | No | BUY | 50 | 96¢ | $49 | 0xb09d1b… |
| 08-09 01:07:49 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xdafa1b… |
| 08-09 01:07:49 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 40 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xdafa1b… |
| 08-09 01:07:49 | Fixed-Eaglet 0xe53c…e569 | No | BUY | 52 | 96¢ | $50 | 0xdafa1b… |
| 08-08 22:55:03 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 40 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xa37f75… |
| 08-08 22:55:03 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | BUY | 0 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xa37f75… |
| 08-08 22:55:03 | Fixed-Eaglet 0xe53c…e569 | No | BUY | 53 | 96¢ | $51 | 0xa37f75… |
| 08-08 06:34:06 | (anonymous) 0x572c…4360 | No | BUY | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0x2f6e9d… |
| 08-08 06:34:06 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x2f6e9d… |
| 08-08 06:34:03 | Enchanting-Cable 0x84a2…c7cf | Yes | BUY | 30 | 5¢ | $2 | 0xf7fb8f… |
| 08-08 06:34:03 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 5¢ | $0 | 0xf7fb8f… |
| 08-08 06:34:03 | Nice-Perennial 0xcdb1…276c | No | BUY | 37 | 95¢ | $35 | 0xf7fb8f… |
| 08-05 09:30:17 | Enchanting-Cable 0x84a2…c7cf | Yes | BUY | 13 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xda1fd1… |
| 08-05 09:30:17 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 13 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xda1fd1… |
| 08-05 05:54:18 | Lone-Dibble 0x6eae…1916 | No | BUY | 2 | 96¢ | $2 | 0xa82542… |
| 08-05 05:54:18 | Enchanting-Cable 0x84a2…c7cf | Yes | BUY | 2 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xa82542… |
| 07-31 13:26:21 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 18 | 3¢ | $1 | 0xde535c… |
| 07-31 13:26:21 | (anonymous) 0x5b68…72c7 | No | BUY | 18 | 97¢ | $17 | 0xde535c… |
| 07-31 13:26:18 | (anonymous) 0x5b68…72c7 | No | BUY | 40 | 97¢ | $39 | 0xf10ca4… |
| 07-31 13:26:18 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | BUY | 40 | 3¢ | $1 | 0xf10ca4… |
| 07-29 21:23:30 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | SELL | 14 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xa0bf47… |
| 07-29 21:23:30 | (anonymous) 0x931e…8547 | No | BUY | 18 | 95¢ | $17 | 0xa0bf47… |
| 07-29 21:23:30 | Immaterial-Advantage 0xf85f…9800 | Yes | SELL | 86 | 4¢ | $4 | 0xa0bf47… |
| 07-29 21:23:30 | (anonymous) 0x2fa8…52ed | No | SELL | 117 | 96¢ | $112 | 0xa0bf47… |
| 07-29 21:08:18 | (anonymous) 0x0ce6…67ad | No | SELL | 54 | 96¢ | $51 | 0x9f686a… |
| 07-29 21:08:18 | Charming-Grape 0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | BUY | 10 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x9f686a… |
| 07-29 21:08:18 | (anonymous) 0x1baf…6e38 | No | SELL | 20 | 96¢ | $19 | 0x9f686a… |
| 07-29 21:08:18 | (anonymous) 0x3a6d…df6a | No | SELL | 16 | 96¢ | $16 | 0x9f686a… |
| 07-29 21:08:18 | (anonymous) 0x2fa8…52ed | No | BUY | 117 | 96¢ | $113 | 0x9f686a… |
| 07-29 21:08:18 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | BUY | 7 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x9f686a… |
| 07-29 16:21:23 | (anonymous) 0x3a6d…df6a | No | SELL | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0xdf0e3e… |
| 07-29 16:21:23 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | SELL | 6 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xdf0e3e… |
| 07-28 13:15:59 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | SELL | 11 | 5¢ | $0 | 0xfe4a70… |
| 07-28 13:15:59 | (anonymous) 0xb275…6cb2 | Yes | BUY | 42 | 5¢ | $2 | 0xfe4a70… |
| 07-28 13:15:59 | (anonymous) 0x931e…8547 | No | BUY | 31 | 95¢ | $30 | 0xfe4a70… |
| 07-27 20:05:16 | Punctual-Sand 0x21d0…ce91 | No | SELL | 2 | 96¢ | $2 | 0x543bf0… |
| 07-27 20:05:16 | (anonymous) 0x3a6d…df6a | No | SELL | 34 | 96¢ | $32 | 0x543bf0… |
| 07-27 20:05:16 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | BUY | 9 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x543bf0… |
| 07-27 20:05:16 | (anonymous) 0x912c…c28e | Yes | SELL | 45 | 4¢ | $2 | 0x543bf0… |
| 07-27 20:05:13 | (anonymous) 0x5be6…c003 | No | SELL | 18 | 95¢ | $18 | 0x415723… |
| 07-27 20:05:13 | Punctual-Sand 0x21d0…ce91 | No | SELL | 153 | 96¢ | $147 | 0x415723… |
| 07-27 20:05:13 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | BUY | 7 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x415723… |
| 07-27 20:05:13 | Ample-Instance 0x9d84…1344 | Yes | SELL | 284 | 4¢ | $13 | 0x415723… |
| 07-27 20:05:13 | (anonymous) 0x3a04…0ede | No | SELL | 50 | 95¢ | $48 | 0x415723… |
| 07-27 20:05:13 | (anonymous) 0x40d2…2dfb | No | SELL | 55 | 95¢ | $52 | 0x415723… |
| 07-23 16:36:46 | (anonymous) 0x5be6…c003 | No | SELL | 34 | 95¢ | $33 | 0xa31699… |
| 07-23 16:36:46 | (anonymous) 0x8e42…a043 | Yes | SELL | 34 | 5¢ | $2 | 0xa31699… |
| 07-18 17:28:40 | (anonymous) 0x8e42…a043 | Yes | BUY | 34 | 5¢ | $2 | 0x5a91c5… |
| 07-18 17:28:40 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 34 | 5¢ | $2 | 0x5a91c5… |
| 07-14 20:51:53 | (anonymous) 0x2462…8051 | No | SELL | 43 | 95¢ | $41 | 0xaf13fd… |
| 07-14 20:51:53 | Squiggly-Waiting 0x23ed…aebc | Yes | SELL | 51 | 5¢ | $2 | 0xaf13fd… |
| 07-14 20:51:53 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | BUY | 9 | 5¢ | $0 | 0xaf13fd… |
| 07-14 16:46:25 | (anonymous) 0x82e9…b34c | No | BUY | 500 | 95¢ | $476 | 0x3bfca2… |
| 07-14 16:46:25 | (anonymous) 0x40d2…2dfb | No | BUY | 55 | 95¢ | $52 | 0x3bfca2… |
| 07-14 16:46:25 | Double-Valley 0xec82…6eaa | Yes | SELL | 46 | 5¢ | $2 | 0x3bfca2… |
| 07-14 16:46:25 | Punctual-Sand 0x21d0…ce91 | No | SELL | 601 | 95¢ | $572 | 0x3bfca2… |
| 07-13 13:25:38 | (anonymous) 0x2462…8051 | No | SELL | 9 | 95¢ | $8 | 0x495f94… |
| 07-13 13:25:38 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | SELL | 9 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x495f94… |
| 07-13 13:24:14 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 45 | 95¢ | $43 | 0x1a0fb7… |
| 07-13 13:24:14 | (anonymous) 0xee67…67a6 | Yes | SELL | 47 | 5¢ | $2 | 0x1a0fb7… |
| 07-13 13:24:14 | (anonymous) 0x2462…8051 | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x1a0fb7… |
| 06-30 09:16:13 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | BUY | 9 | 6¢ | $1 | 0xa1d22b… |
| 06-30 09:16:13 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 9 | 6¢ | $1 | 0xa1d22b… |
| 06-24 05:24:11 | (anonymous) 0xf22b…7eab | Yes | BUY | 19 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x3684a8… |
| 06-24 05:24:11 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 19 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x3684a8… |
| 06-22 00:49:29 | Wilted-Employ 0x1a96…9797 | No | SELL | 1 | 93¢ | $1 | 0x97ec2f… |
| 06-22 00:49:29 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 7¢ | $0 | 0x97ec2f… |
| 06-22 00:48:26 | Wilted-Employ 0x1a96…9797 | No | BUY | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0xbd773d… |
| 06-22 00:48:26 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0xbd773d… |
| 06-11 19:24:37 | Thorny-Counselling 0x2a18…5351 | No | SELL | 41 | 94¢ | $39 | 0x45b783… |
| 06-11 19:24:37 | Blind-Simplification 0x51b4…89b8 | Yes | SELL | 99 | 5¢ | $5 | 0x45b783… |
| 06-11 19:24:37 | (anonymous) 0x8738…e1c5 | No | SELL | 12 | 94¢ | $12 | 0x45b783… |
| 06-11 19:24:37 | Double-Valley 0xec82…6eaa | Yes | BUY | 46 | 4¢ | $2 | 0x45b783… |
| 06-11 19:15:52 | Blind-Simplification 0x51b4…89b8 | Yes | BUY | 99 | 7¢ | $7 | 0x50e089… |
| 06-11 19:15:52 | (anonymous) 0x1baf…6e38 | No | BUY | 20 | 93¢ | $18 | 0x50e089… |
| 06-11 19:15:52 | (anonymous) 0x0ce6…67ad | No | BUY | 54 | 93¢ | $50 | 0x50e089… |
| 06-11 19:15:52 | Double-Valley 0xec82…6eaa | Yes | SELL | 20 | 7¢ | $1 | 0x50e089… |
| 06-11 19:15:52 | Fruitful-Heroine 0x1e98…6345 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 7¢ | $0 | 0x50e089… |
| 06-11 15:18:31 | Grizzled-Strudel 0xb980…73b0 | Yes | SELL | 30 | 6¢ | $2 | 0xdeeae6… |
| 06-11 15:18:31 | (anonymous) 0x8738…e1c5 | No | SELL | 30 | 94¢ | $28 | 0xdeeae6… |
| 06-11 13:07:24 | Terrible-Ordinary 0x0a6d…1d0a | No | SELL | 41 | 94¢ | $39 | 0x01e580… |
| 06-11 13:07:24 | Thorny-Counselling 0x2a18…5351 | No | BUY | 41 | 94¢ | $39 | 0x01e580… |
| 06-11 09:05:42 | Robust-Fox 0xdc17…c4ab | Yes | SELL | 10 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x5368bb… |