Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.75% or higher before 2027?
open
Total volume
$2,339
Trades
63
Unique wallets
33
Liquidity
$2,059
Latest YES mid
5¢
Latest NO mid
95¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-29
last 07-23 16:36
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
YES holders
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 5 | — | $44 | $44 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 9 | $5 | $17 | $12 |
| 🐟 Fish | 3 | — | $476 | $476 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 16 | $9 | $466 | $456 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 1 | — | — | +— |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 5 | $2 | — | +$2 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 3 | $1 | $43 | $41 |
| Median | 4 | — | $100 | $100 |
| Below median | 1 | — | — | +— |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 3 | $0 | $1 | $1 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 2 | $0 | $17 | $17 |
| unranked | 14 | $11 | $841 | $831 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (anonymous) 0x82e9…b34c | No | +500 | $476 | $476 | 1 | 07-14 16:46 |
| (anonymous) 0x3a6d…df6a | No | +56 | $54 | $54 | 1 | 06-08 10:15 |
| (anonymous) 0x40d2…2dfb | No | +55 | $52 | $52 | 1 | 07-14 16:46 |
| (anonymous) 0x0ce6…67ad | No | +54 | $50 | $50 | 1 | 06-11 19:15 |
| (anonymous) 0x5a0d…3078 | No | +53 | $52 | $52 | 1 | 05-29 21:27 |
| (anonymous) 0x3a04…0ede | No | +50 | $48 | $48 | 1 | 06-04 19:46 |
| (anonymous) 0x1baf…6e38 | No | +20 | $18 | $18 | 1 | 06-11 19:15 |
| (anonymous) 0xf22b…7eab | Yes | +19 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-24 05:24 |
| (anonymous) 0x5be6…c003 | No | +18 | $17 | $82 | 2 | 07-23 16:36 |
| Unlucky-Comparison 0xd883…4fd7 | No | +18 | $17 | $17 | 4 | 06-08 10:15 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-23 16:36:46 | (anonymous) 0x8e42…a043 | Yes | SELL | 34 | 5¢ | $2 | 0xa31699… |
| 07-23 16:36:46 | (anonymous) 0x5be6…c003 | No | SELL | 34 | 95¢ | $33 | 0xa31699… |
| 07-18 17:28:40 | (anonymous) 0x8e42…a043 | Yes | BUY | 34 | 5¢ | $2 | 0x5a91c5… |
| 07-18 17:28:40 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 34 | 5¢ | $2 | 0x5a91c5… |
| 07-14 20:51:53 | Squiggly-Waiting 0x23ed…aebc | Yes | SELL | 51 | 5¢ | $2 | 0xaf13fd… |
| 07-14 20:51:53 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | BUY | 9 | 5¢ | $0 | 0xaf13fd… |
| 07-14 20:51:53 | (anonymous) 0x2462…8051 | No | SELL | 43 | 95¢ | $41 | 0xaf13fd… |
| 07-14 16:46:25 | Punctual-Sand 0x21d0…ce91 | No | SELL | 601 | 95¢ | $572 | 0x3bfca2… |
| 07-14 16:46:25 | (anonymous) 0x40d2…2dfb | No | BUY | 55 | 95¢ | $52 | 0x3bfca2… |
| 07-14 16:46:25 | Double-Valley 0xec82…6eaa | Yes | SELL | 46 | 5¢ | $2 | 0x3bfca2… |
| 07-14 16:46:25 | (anonymous) 0x82e9…b34c | No | BUY | 500 | 95¢ | $476 | 0x3bfca2… |
| 07-13 13:25:38 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | SELL | 9 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x495f94… |
| 07-13 13:25:38 | (anonymous) 0x2462…8051 | No | SELL | 9 | 95¢ | $8 | 0x495f94… |
| 07-13 13:24:14 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 45 | 95¢ | $43 | 0x1a0fb7… |
| 07-13 13:24:14 | (anonymous) 0x2462…8051 | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x1a0fb7… |
| 07-13 13:24:14 | (anonymous) 0xee67…67a6 | Yes | SELL | 47 | 5¢ | $2 | 0x1a0fb7… |
| 06-30 09:16:13 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | BUY | 9 | 6¢ | $1 | 0xa1d22b… |
| 06-30 09:16:13 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 9 | 6¢ | $1 | 0xa1d22b… |
| 06-24 05:24:11 | (anonymous) 0xf22b…7eab | Yes | BUY | 19 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x3684a8… |
| 06-24 05:24:11 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 19 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x3684a8… |
| 06-22 00:49:29 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 7¢ | $0 | 0x97ec2f… |
| 06-22 00:49:29 | Wilted-Employ 0x1a96…9797 | No | SELL | 1 | 93¢ | $1 | 0x97ec2f… |
| 06-22 00:48:26 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0xbd773d… |
| 06-22 00:48:26 | Wilted-Employ 0x1a96…9797 | No | BUY | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0xbd773d… |
| 06-11 19:24:37 | Double-Valley 0xec82…6eaa | Yes | BUY | 46 | 4¢ | $2 | 0x45b783… |
| 06-11 19:24:37 | Thorny-Counselling 0x2a18…5351 | No | SELL | 41 | 94¢ | $39 | 0x45b783… |
| 06-11 19:24:37 | Blind-Simplification 0x51b4…89b8 | Yes | SELL | 99 | 5¢ | $5 | 0x45b783… |
| 06-11 19:24:37 | (anonymous) 0x8738…e1c5 | No | SELL | 12 | 94¢ | $12 | 0x45b783… |
| 06-11 19:15:52 | (anonymous) 0x1baf…6e38 | No | BUY | 20 | 93¢ | $18 | 0x50e089… |
| 06-11 19:15:52 | (anonymous) 0x0ce6…67ad | No | BUY | 54 | 93¢ | $50 | 0x50e089… |
| 06-11 19:15:52 | Fruitful-Heroine 0x1e98…6345 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 7¢ | $0 | 0x50e089… |
| 06-11 19:15:52 | Blind-Simplification 0x51b4…89b8 | Yes | BUY | 99 | 7¢ | $7 | 0x50e089… |
| 06-11 19:15:52 | Double-Valley 0xec82…6eaa | Yes | SELL | 20 | 7¢ | $1 | 0x50e089… |
| 06-11 15:18:31 | Grizzled-Strudel 0xb980…73b0 | Yes | SELL | 30 | 6¢ | $2 | 0xdeeae6… |
| 06-11 15:18:31 | (anonymous) 0x8738…e1c5 | No | SELL | 30 | 94¢ | $28 | 0xdeeae6… |
| 06-11 13:07:24 | Terrible-Ordinary 0x0a6d…1d0a | No | SELL | 41 | 94¢ | $39 | 0x01e580… |
| 06-11 13:07:24 | Thorny-Counselling 0x2a18…5351 | No | BUY | 41 | 94¢ | $39 | 0x01e580… |
| 06-11 09:05:42 | Robust-Fox 0xdc17…c4ab | Yes | SELL | 10 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x5368bb… |
| 06-11 09:05:42 | (anonymous) 0x8738…e1c5 | No | SELL | 10 | 94¢ | $9 | 0x5368bb… |
| 06-10 13:53:33 | (anonymous) 0xee67…67a6 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 7¢ | $0 | 0xcc35e8… |
| 06-10 13:53:33 | (anonymous) 0x1b23…1259 | No | SELL | 5 | 93¢ | $5 | 0xcc35e8… |
| 06-10 13:52:18 | Fruitful-Heroine 0x1e98…6345 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 6¢ | $0 | 0xf1e4b3… |
| 06-10 13:52:18 | (anonymous) 0x1b23…1259 | No | BUY | 5 | 94¢ | $5 | 0xf1e4b3… |
| 06-10 06:20:09 | Terrible-Ordinary 0x0a6d…1d0a | No | SELL | 52 | 94¢ | $49 | 0xb4c15c… |
| 06-10 06:20:09 | (anonymous) 0x8738…e1c5 | No | BUY | 52 | 94¢ | $49 | 0xb4c15c… |
| 06-08 10:15:46 | Charming-Grape 0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | SELL | 18 | 7¢ | $1 | 0xe0b45d… |
| 06-08 10:15:46 | Fixed-Eaglet 0xe53c…e569 | No | SELL | 80 | 95¢ | $76 | 0xe0b45d… |
| 06-08 10:15:46 | Unlucky-Comparison 0xd883…4fd7 | No | BUY | 0 | 93¢ | $0 | 0xe0b45d… |
| 06-08 10:15:46 | (anonymous) 0x3a6d…df6a | No | BUY | 56 | 96¢ | $54 | 0xe0b45d… |
| 06-05 19:37:55 | Unlucky-Comparison 0xd883…4fd7 | No | BUY | 6 | 94¢ | $6 | 0x815742… |
| 06-05 19:37:55 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 45 | 94¢ | $43 | 0x815742… |
| 06-05 19:37:55 | (anonymous) 0x2462…8051 | No | BUY | 53 | 94¢ | $50 | 0x815742… |
| 06-05 19:37:55 | Punctual-Sand 0x21d0…ce91 | No | SELL | 110 | 94¢ | $104 | 0x815742… |
| 06-04 19:46:27 | (anonymous) 0x3a04…0ede | No | BUY | 50 | 95¢ | $48 | 0xcf7f7a… |
| 06-04 19:46:27 | (anonymous) 0x5be6…c003 | No | BUY | 53 | 95¢ | $50 | 0xcf7f7a… |
| 06-04 19:46:27 | Punctual-Sand 0x21d0…ce91 | No | SELL | 253 | 95¢ | $241 | 0xcf7f7a… |
| 06-04 19:46:27 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 52 | 3¢ | $2 | 0xcf7f7a… |
| 06-04 19:46:27 | Unlucky-Comparison 0xd883…4fd7 | No | BUY | 6 | 94¢ | $6 | 0xcf7f7a… |
| 06-04 19:46:27 | Bouncy-Saving 0xb41e…11fd | Yes | SELL | 20 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xcf7f7a… |
| 06-03 07:49:50 | (anonymous) 0x8ee2…bb25 | No | SELL | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0xf16e7d… |
| 06-03 07:49:50 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xf16e7d… |
| 05-29 21:27:58 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | BUY | 53 | 3¢ | $1 | 0xa580ba… |
| 05-29 21:27:58 | (anonymous) 0x5a0d…3078 | No | BUY | 53 | 97¢ | $52 | 0xa580ba… |