Ample-Instance — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$70.2K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

92.7%

Resolved

Trades

47,115

lifetime

Volume

$16.9M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$359

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-09 18:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

66% 80% +$70,111

Other

32% 67% +$89

Sports

1% — —

Tech

0% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

56 active days in 12wk • peak 562 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	2,053	$2.10M	536,231	1,854,625	-1,318,394	open	—	03-04 17:46
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	568	$1.91M	1,704,542	805,014	+899,528	open	—	03-04 17:59
netanyahu out by march 31 854	62	$664.0K	339,110	339,110	+0	open	—	03-30 22:48
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	720	$593.4K	621,261	404,035	+217,226	open	—	02-28 07:33
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	1,168	$551.3K	1,448,803	1,259,550	+189,253	open	—	01-31 13:03
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	566	$550.5K	922,919	624,604	+298,315	open	—	03-04 16:26
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	873	$423.2K	913,651	25,000	+888,651	open	—	08-09 19:07
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	320	$383.9K	313,658	290,676	+22,982	open	—	03-01 02:39
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	596	$362.6K	318,102	126,666	+191,436	open	—	02-01 04:43
will the us invade venezuela by january 31 2026	134	$330.3K	454,803	111,326	+343,477	open	—	01-09 14:15
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	204	$266.3K	471,143	67,489	+403,654	open	—	02-23 17:39
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?	95	$259.7K	133,913	132,486	+1,427	open	—	05-14 10:22
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	22	$255.8K	63,230	250,000	-186,770	open	—	06-15 01:17
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	205	$244.6K	146,720	118,922	+27,798	open	—	02-20 17:10
us strikes iran by january 23 2026 494 711 798 734 155	172	$237.7K	122,110	127,222	-5,111	open	—	01-24 04:50
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	1,825	$204.9K	630,082	616,827	+13,255	open	—	03-04 16:16
will khamenei leave iran by jan 31 322	119	$195.1K	102,053	101,543	+510	open	—	02-01 03:53
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	388	$186.4K	440,701	8,266	+432,435	open	—	03-08 19:27
another us government shutdown by february 14	850	$165.0K	335,931	202,924	+133,006	open	—	02-13 18:12
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	138	$151.3K	129,442	129,442	+0	open	—	02-28 09:23
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	470	$149.2K	137,966	101,371	+36,596	open	—	08-09 21:08
will the total domestic gross for avatar fire and ash be less than 400m by january 31	125	$139.2K	72,820	80,237	-7,417	open	—	01-30 07:38
nicols maduro seen in public by january 5	102	$134.0K	66,920	69,420	-2,500	open	—	01-04 01:41
us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931	273	$122.6K	114,431	84,718	+29,713	open	—	02-12 19:29
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	726	$122.4K	100,761	53,494	+47,267	open	—	01-31 17:27
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	203	$120.6K	197,220	145,943	+51,277	open	—	01-23 21:23
will khamenei leave iran by march 31 224 161 138 998	225	$119.7K	85,557	45,189	+40,367	open	—	03-01 03:04
Fed rate hike in 2026?	70	$119.4K	252,348	0	+252,348	open	—	08-09 21:10
will the government shutdown last 4 days or more 831	129	$118.6K	355,337	113,863	+241,475	open	—	02-03 00:33
will the government shutdown last 5 days or more	448	$110.4K	462,926	115,119	+347,807	open	—	02-03 21:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-09 22:34:03	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xd550a9…
08-09 22:19:52	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	148	79¢	$117	0x16d9a4…
08-09 21:19:04	Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	271	72¢	$195	0x956774…
08-09 21:10:22	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	43	45¢	$19	0xca0f28…
08-09 21:09:16	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	1,729	45¢	$778	0xfbd576…
08-09 21:09:13	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	454	89¢	$404	0xd8a666…
08-09 21:09:10	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	4,546	89¢	$4,046	0xde3d38…
08-09 21:08:52	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	BUY	7,500	88¢	$6,600	0xbae67f…
08-09 21:06:39	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	SELL	6	86¢	$5	0x421a3f…
08-09 21:05:55	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	9	45¢	$4	0xa887e9…
08-09 21:00:30	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	8	95¢	$7	0x39362d…
08-09 20:46:13	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	SELL	1,999	86¢	$1,719	0xbd8c53…
08-09 20:36:13	Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	200	72¢	$144	0xa63e8e…
08-09 20:36:10	Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	200	72¢	$144	0x3216d0…
08-09 20:31:31	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	No	BUY	4,413	6¢	$265	0xeedea2…
08-09 20:23:36	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	No	BUY	14	6¢	$1	0x1e98ef…
08-09 20:23:18	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x95f336…
08-09 20:23:12	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0x399d23…
08-09 20:21:28	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	10	45¢	$4	0x5d8d65…
08-09 20:19:52	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	46¢	$4	0xd501a2…
08-09 20:13:30	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	389	46¢	$179	0x380f24…
08-09 20:08:03	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	7	95¢	$7	0xedbaf6…
08-09 19:53:30	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	100	95¢	$95	0xccfbb5…
08-09 19:46:27	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	SELL	200	86¢	$172	0x7072d6…
08-09 19:42:36	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	19	79¢	$15	0xf4cc4d…
08-09 19:29:21	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	No	BUY	284	6¢	$17	0x1846f2…
08-09 19:21:16	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	No	BUY	289	6¢	$17	0xa70f16…
08-09 19:15:52	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	8	95¢	$8	0x5d138a…
08-09 19:07:28	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	13,731	16¢	$2,197	0x84713c…
08-09 18:51:43	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	SELL	1	86¢	$1	0xd17150…
08-09 18:47:25	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	147	16¢	$24	0x7dd63c…
08-09 18:28:43	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	97	16¢	$15	0x1554b2…
08-09 18:27:00	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,364	16¢	$218	0xb635ca…
08-09 18:25:03	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	7	79¢	$6	0xe1bcf6…
08-09 18:22:09	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	100	95¢	$95	0x4e4428…
08-09 18:18:21	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x8143dd…
08-09 18:05:25	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	12	95¢	$11	0xe22b1b…
08-09 18:03:01	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	25	45¢	$11	0xa71c21…
08-09 18:02:06	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	45¢	$450	0xa8f47f…
08-09 17:56:21	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	SELL	5,000	92¢	$4,600	0xbe95ab…
08-09 17:48:09	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0x4746f7…
08-09 17:46:42	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	SELL	1,000	86¢	$860	0x8eaa95…
08-09 17:43:31	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	48	79¢	$38	0x92a99e…
08-09 17:35:27	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	80	16¢	$13	0x864faa…
08-09 17:35:12	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,000	16¢	$160	0x986325…
08-09 17:32:52	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	SELL	12	86¢	$10	0x0bfeed…
08-09 17:30:25	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	16¢	$0	0xa7b55e…
08-09 17:13:19	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	4,689	91¢	$4,267	0xd9594f…
08-09 17:06:40	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	12	16¢	$2	0x4740f0…
08-09 17:06:27	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	BUY	355	7¢	$25	0xc72271…
08-09 17:06:00	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	BUY	200	7¢	$14	0x91a8a0…
08-09 17:03:45	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	Yes	SELL	2,811	91¢	$2,558	0x52376b…
08-09 17:03:16	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	147	16¢	$24	0xe6ec1a…
08-09 17:03:16	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	113	16¢	$18	0x1ce154…
08-09 17:03:13	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	147	16¢	$24	0xc283be…
08-09 17:02:21	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	BUY	97	7¢	$7	0xc5eef1…
08-09 17:00:33	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	BUY	258	7¢	$18	0xa4fe82…
08-09 17:00:15	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	BUY	200	7¢	$14	0x1a3312…
08-09 17:00:06	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	SELL	200	86¢	$172	0xffdb58…
08-09 16:59:55	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	BUY	3,890	7¢	$272	0xa0401c…
08-09 16:59:39	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	2,500	16¢	$400	0xb2d366…
08-09 16:59:18	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	SELL	13	86¢	$11	0x7c161f…
08-09 16:57:40	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0xbddf2a…
08-09 16:40:33	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x2eaf1e…
08-09 16:35:55	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	207	79¢	$164	0xa34d51…
08-09 16:35:16	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	132	16¢	$21	0xccf692…
08-09 16:28:22	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	SELL	20	86¢	$17	0x308ef9…
08-09 16:27:52	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	147	16¢	$24	0xef2358…
08-09 16:17:04	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xbcae48…
08-09 16:03:37	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	SELL	7,558	86¢	$6,500	0x3cd2be…
08-09 15:59:55	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	SELL	233	86¢	$201	0x74a4f7…
08-09 15:54:19	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	SELL	2	86¢	$1	0x985147…
08-09 15:53:37	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	SELL	2	86¢	$1	0x0ebce9…
08-09 15:53:16	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	79	45¢	$35	0xe4c746…
08-09 15:53:13	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	33	16¢	$5	0xd80105…
08-09 15:53:13	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	455	16¢	$73	0x73dfab…
08-09 15:53:12	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	278	16¢	$44	0xde9531…
08-09 15:53:12	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	203	16¢	$33	0xbb0bff…
08-09 15:52:51	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	40	79¢	$32	0x477f2e…
08-09 15:50:33	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	SELL	2	86¢	$1	0x908291…
08-09 15:46:00	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	208	16¢	$33	0xb96459…
08-09 15:46:00	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	SELL	2	86¢	$1	0x832ef2…
08-09 15:45:57	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	SELL	2	86¢	$1	0x58a476…
08-09 15:45:55	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	SELL	2	86¢	$1	0x5c89a2…
08-09 15:45:54	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	SELL	2	86¢	$1	0xa2e956…
08-09 15:45:52	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	SELL	2	86¢	$1	0x96b9af…
08-09 15:45:51	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	SELL	2	86¢	$1	0x4186d5…
08-09 15:45:49	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	SELL	2	86¢	$1	0x5459c7…
08-09 15:44:24	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	SELL	6	86¢	$5	0x5abf19…
08-09 15:40:16	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	924	79¢	$730	0xad701b…
08-09 15:37:19	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	11	16¢	$2	0x34b515…
08-09 15:34:04	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	11	16¢	$2	0x176dee…
08-09 15:32:04	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	563	79¢	$445	0xbe1603…
08-09 15:28:25	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	SELL	35	86¢	$30	0x157288…
08-09 15:26:12	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	400	16¢	$64	0x1499a0…
08-09 15:22:45	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	48	16¢	$8	0xc64ce1…
08-09 15:09:49	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x511203…
08-09 15:07:10	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	12	16¢	$2	0x58bc3a…
08-09 14:53:19	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	32	79¢	$25	0xd66436…
08-09 14:50:52	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	SELL	2	86¢	$1	0xaade3b…