Realized P&L
+$543
Unrealized P&L
+$69.9K
Hit rate
74.3%
Resolved
780
Trades
68,059
lifetime
Volume
$23.0M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$337
Open exposure
$1.52M
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-28 12:56
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 169 days
Categories
Politics
58%
60%
+$143,890
Other
40%
61%
+$67,216
Sports
1%
35%
-$207,495
Tech
1%
62%
-$5,057
Pop-Culture
0%
68%
+$1,850
Crypto
0%
50%
+$140
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk
• peak 1087 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | +746,919 | $554,329 | 80¢ | $593.8K | +$39,471 | 10-12 17:24 | |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? | No | +167,386 | $122,109 | 86¢ | $143.1K | +$21,006 | 10-27 18:05 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | Yes | +671,618 | $124,458 | 20¢ | $137.7K | +$13,224 | 09-18 18:05 | |
| No one announced as next James Bond? | No | +155,795 | $117,169 | 78¢ | $121.6K | +$4,429 | 10-16 15:30 | |
| Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? | No | +73,103 | $59,124 | 96¢ | $70.4K | +$11,311 | 08-10 13:38 | |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | -81,100 | -$62,348 | 78¢ | $-63420 | -$1,072 | 08-25 18:29 | |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? | No | +58,885 | $52,740 | 94¢ | $55.1K | +$2,406 | 10-21 04:46 | |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | -51,801 | -$37,501 | 97¢ | $-50040 | -$12,539 | 08-12 11:53 | |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Yes | +30,154 | $16,059 | 100¢ | $30.2K | +$14,094 | 10-15 13:49 | |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | +28,652 | $22,441 | 84¢ | $24.0K | +$1,584 | 08-23 06:27 | |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | +25,000 | $22,525 | 91¢ | $22.6K | +$112 | 08-26 21:20 | |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | +22,500 | $19,065 | 85¢ | $19.0K | -$30 | 08-29 08:25 | |
| No one announced as next James Bond? | Yes | +71,014 | $15,339 | 22¢ | $15.6K | +$248 | 09-30 12:45 | |
| Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? | Yes | +416,539 | $54,786 | 4¢ | $15.2K | -$39,582 | 09-15 20:51 | |
| Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? | Yes | +14,071 | $12,488 | 96¢ | $13.5K | +$963 | 10-15 13:47 | |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Yes | -67,263 | -$16,553 | 18¢ | $-12242 | +$4,311 | 10-27 18:02 | |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | No | +14,381 | $7,136 | 80¢ | $11.5K | +$4,369 | 08-15 20:24 | |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | No | +17,729 | $5,771 | 64¢ | $11.4K | +$5,664 | 08-25 21:44 | |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | +220,536 | $9,511 | 5¢ | $11.1K | +$1,626 | 05-11 11:30 | |
| Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? | No | +11,316 | $8,257 | 96¢ | $10.9K | +$2,629 | 08-20 01:13 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? | Yes | +68,287 | $14,964 | 16¢ | $10.6K | -$4,380 | 10-28 12:56 | |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | -9,366 | -$8,898 | 96¢ | $-8992 | -$94 | 08-10 01:46 | |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? | No | +15,272 | $5,651 | 57¢ | $8.7K | +$3,054 | 10-08 21:14 | |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | Yes | +24,238 | $15,526 | 36¢ | $8.6K | -$6,922 | 09-14 18:51 | |
| Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | Yes | +23,132 | $6,671 | 36¢ | $8.4K | +$1,772 | 09-24 11:08 | |
| Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? | Yes | +9,789 | $8,123 | 85¢ | $8.3K | +$197 | 10-05 18:35 | |
| will samuel alito announce his retirement by june 30 2027 20260630164636932 777 232 | Yes | +15,540 | $5,787 | 52¢ | $8.1K | +$2,294 | 10-21 09:16 | |
| Anthropic IPO before 2027? | Yes | +8,330 | $6,668 | 96¢ | $8.0K | +$1,287 | 09-06 17:13 | |
| russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026 | Yes | +56,634 | $9,844 | 14¢ | $7.9K | -$1,915 | 09-03 11:42 | |
| Callum Turner announced as next James Bond? | No | +8,956 | $6,906 | 82¢ | $7.3K | +$420 | 10-27 18:07 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | 2,053 | $2.10M | 536,231 | 1,854,625 | -1,318,394 | Yes | +$93,179 | 03-04 17:46 |
| Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | 568 | $1.91M | 1,704,542 | 805,014 | +899,528 | No | +$6,364 | 03-04 17:59 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 2,287 | $1.30M | 1,843,537 | 425,000 | +1,418,537 | open | — | 10-12 17:24 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | 1,480 | $694.8K | 874,499 | 268,664 | +605,835 | No | -$69,525 | 09-16 13:07 |
| netanyahu out by march 31 854 | 62 | $664.0K | 339,110 | 339,110 | +0 | No | +$12,824 | 03-30 22:48 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 589 | $631.0K | 760,754 | 206,136 | +554,618 | Yes | -$18,880 | 09-16 17:48 |
| us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761 | 720 | $593.4K | 621,261 | 404,035 | +217,226 | Yes | -$31,459 | 02-28 07:33 |
| will there be another us government shutdown by january 31 | 1,168 | $551.3K | 1,448,803 | 1,259,550 | +189,253 | Yes | +$2,413 | 01-31 13:03 |
| Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? | 566 | $550.5K | 922,919 | 624,604 | +298,315 | No | +$29,637 | 03-04 16:26 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting? | 50 | $548.2K | 551,197 | 0 | +551,197 | No | +$3,007 | 07-28 15:35 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | 31 | $530.7K | 334,139 | 320,909 | +13,230 | Yes | +$8,711 | 06-15 01:17 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28 | 320 | $383.9K | 313,658 | 290,676 | +22,982 | Yes | +$58,296 | 03-01 02:39 |
| us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165 | 596 | $362.6K | 318,102 | 126,666 | +191,436 | No | +$40,462 | 02-01 04:43 |
| us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045 | 531 | $336.3K | 303,801 | 142,694 | +161,107 | Yes | +$51,081 | 08-12 07:07 |
| will the us invade venezuela by january 31 2026 | 134 | $330.3K | 454,803 | 111,326 | +343,477 | No | +$9,722 | 01-09 14:15 |
| No one announced as next James Bond? | 154 | $282.6K | 197,627 | 100,000 | +97,627 | Yes | +$11,821 | 06-29 12:57 |
| Starmer out by February 28, 2026? | 204 | $266.3K | 471,143 | 67,489 | +403,654 | No | +$36,558 | 02-23 17:39 |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | 630 | $260.9K | 797,023 | 307,381 | +489,642 | open | — | 09-15 20:51 |
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? | 97 | $259.7K | 133,913 | 132,535 | +1,378 | No | +$3,726 | 05-14 10:22 |
| us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553 | 205 | $244.6K | 146,720 | 118,922 | +27,798 | No | +$7,997 | 02-20 17:10 |
| us strikes iran by january 23 2026 494 711 798 734 155 | 172 | $237.7K | 122,110 | 127,222 | -5,111 | No | +$5,409 | 01-24 04:50 |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? | 236 | $222.0K | 378,308 | 75,693 | +302,616 | Yes | -$7,880 | 08-28 11:29 |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | 1,825 | $204.9K | 630,082 | 616,827 | +13,255 | No | -$6,466 | 03-04 16:16 |
| will khamenei leave iran by jan 31 322 | 119 | $195.1K | 102,053 | 101,543 | +510 | No | +$6,948 | 02-01 03:53 |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? | 388 | $186.4K | 440,701 | 8,266 | +432,435 | Yes | -$775 | 03-08 19:27 |
| another us government shutdown by february 14 | 850 | $165.0K | 335,931 | 202,924 | +133,006 | No | -$15,959 | 02-13 18:12 |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? | 67 | $153.5K | 187,114 | 14,534 | +172,581 | open | — | 10-27 18:05 |
| will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting | 138 | $151.3K | 129,442 | 129,442 | +0 | No | +$1,819 | 02-28 09:23 |
| will the total domestic gross for avatar fire and ash be less than 400m by january 31 | 125 | $139.2K | 72,820 | 80,237 | -7,417 | Yes | +$4,760 | 01-30 07:38 |
| nicols maduro seen in public by january 5 | 102 | $134.0K | 66,920 | 69,420 | -2,500 | Yes | +$1,231 | 01-04 01:41 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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