Ample-Instance — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$70.2K

Unrealized P&L

+$812

Hit rate

92.7%

Resolved

Trades

43,022

lifetime

Volume

$14.9M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$347

Open exposure

$5.72K

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-09 16:12

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

66% 80% +$70,111

Other

32% 67% +$89

Sports

1% — —

Tech

1% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

44 active days in 12wk • peak 515 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes		+34,936	$4,275	15¢	$5.1K	+$791	06-09 16:12
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+867	$633	76¢	$655	+$22	06-08 21:58

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	2,053	$2.10M	536,231	1,854,625	-1,318,394	open	—	03-04 17:46
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	568	$1.91M	1,704,542	805,014	+899,528	open	—	03-04 17:59
netanyahu out by march 31 854	62	$664.0K	339,110	339,110	+0	open	—	03-30 22:48
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	720	$593.4K	621,261	404,035	+217,226	open	—	02-28 07:33
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	1,168	$551.3K	1,448,803	1,259,550	+189,253	open	—	01-31 13:03
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	566	$550.5K	922,919	624,604	+298,315	open	—	03-04 16:26
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	320	$383.9K	313,658	290,676	+22,982	open	—	03-01 02:39
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	596	$362.6K	318,102	126,666	+191,436	open	—	02-01 04:43
will the us invade venezuela by january 31 2026	134	$330.3K	454,803	111,326	+343,477	open	—	01-09 14:15
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	204	$266.3K	471,143	67,489	+403,654	open	—	02-23 17:39
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?	95	$259.7K	133,913	132,486	+1,427	open	—	05-14 10:22
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	205	$244.6K	146,720	118,922	+27,798	open	—	02-20 17:10
us strikes iran by january 23 2026 494 711 798 734 155	172	$237.7K	122,110	127,222	-5,111	open	—	01-24 04:50
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	1,825	$204.9K	630,082	616,827	+13,255	open	—	03-04 16:16
will khamenei leave iran by jan 31 322	119	$195.1K	102,053	101,543	+510	open	—	02-01 03:53
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	388	$186.4K	440,701	8,266	+432,435	open	—	03-08 19:27
another us government shutdown by february 14	850	$165.0K	335,931	202,924	+133,006	open	—	02-13 18:12
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	138	$151.3K	129,442	129,442	+0	open	—	02-28 09:23
will the total domestic gross for avatar fire and ash be less than 400m by january 31	125	$139.2K	72,820	80,237	-7,417	open	—	01-30 07:38
nicols maduro seen in public by january 5	102	$134.0K	66,920	69,420	-2,500	open	—	01-04 01:41
us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931	273	$122.6K	114,431	84,718	+29,713	open	—	02-12 19:29
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	726	$122.4K	100,761	53,494	+47,267	open	—	01-31 17:27
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	203	$120.6K	197,220	145,943	+51,277	open	—	01-23 21:23
will khamenei leave iran by march 31 224 161 138 998	225	$119.7K	85,557	45,189	+40,367	open	—	03-01 03:04
will the government shutdown last 4 days or more 831	129	$118.6K	355,337	113,863	+241,475	open	—	02-03 00:33
will the government shutdown last 5 days or more	448	$110.4K	462,926	115,119	+347,807	open	—	02-03 21:44
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	407	$102.1K	149,586	97,724	+51,862	open	—	02-28 07:33
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	137	$99.5K	58,719	53,346	+5,373	open	—	01-29 10:23
us strikes iran by january 29 2026 183 883 657 383 499	11	$97.3K	49,482	49,482	+0	open	—	01-30 03:57
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	47	$96.1K	60,537	49,346	+11,190	open	—	02-28 06:20

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-09 16:12:51	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	102	13¢	$13	0x5aa8c3…
06-09 14:06:12	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4,163	13¢	$541	0x9664ae…
06-09 12:57:45	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	425	13¢	$55	0xae5af9…
06-09 10:19:36	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	927	13¢	$120	0x1c3148…
06-09 10:07:01	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	13¢	$1	0x85f4c6…
06-09 09:48:13	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	13¢	$0	0xf252f2…
06-09 09:24:31	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	13¢	$5	0xd0eec7…
06-09 09:07:43	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	29	13¢	$4	0xc09d79…
06-09 09:07:34	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	13¢	$5	0x5eed20…
06-09 08:26:58	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	46	13¢	$6	0xa60e23…
06-09 07:53:57	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	504	13¢	$66	0x593c39…
06-09 07:29:13	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	13¢	$10	0x80b644…
06-09 06:47:22	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	13¢	$13	0x8a4d87…
06-09 06:44:58	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	13¢	$10	0x1b9f28…
06-09 06:14:24	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	13¢	$1	0x6950ea…
06-09 05:38:13	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	13¢	$1	0x992959…
06-09 05:05:58	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	75	13¢	$10	0xd867ae…
06-09 02:11:18	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	555	13¢	$72	0x3d96fc…
06-09 01:19:55	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	13¢	$2	0x486951…
06-08 23:37:42	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	140	13¢	$18	0x05449c…
06-08 22:42:40	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	13¢	$2	0xa0aed0…
06-08 22:30:49	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	13¢	$0	0xb3a62a…
06-08 21:58:46	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	73¢	$13	0xccc7b5…
06-08 20:58:21	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	13¢	$6	0x6705fe…
06-08 20:38:28	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	345	13¢	$45	0xdb2044…
06-08 20:33:52	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	13¢	$1	0xa17628…
06-08 20:26:33	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	13¢	$1	0x819ac2…
06-08 20:13:58	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	13¢	$1	0x42477a…
06-08 20:13:55	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	73¢	$1	0xc0bb93…
06-08 20:01:00	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	208	13¢	$27	0x2a009f…
06-08 19:29:00	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	13¢	$1	0x936f1c…
06-08 19:16:10	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x806722…
06-08 19:14:51	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	13¢	$1	0x1ac431…
06-08 19:14:16	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	201	13¢	$26	0xcac4a2…
06-08 19:02:34	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5,152	13¢	$670	0x30ccc9…
06-08 19:02:34	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	115	13¢	$15	0x2dbcaf…
06-08 19:02:34	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	13¢	$2	0x12d93f…
06-08 18:54:45	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	130	13¢	$17	0x3929ba…
06-08 18:17:49	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	13¢	$3	0x6a40ce…
06-08 17:49:01	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	13¢	$5	0x591455…
06-08 16:20:45	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	166	13¢	$22	0xbc6691…
06-08 15:12:58	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	85	13¢	$11	0xb892e6…
06-08 15:00:28	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,920	13¢	$510	0xfcefc8…
06-08 14:30:57	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	73¢	$0	0xd09404…
06-08 14:30:55	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	73¢	$0	0x0b765a…
06-08 14:30:54	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	73¢	$0	0x8378b9…
06-08 13:03:03	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	11¢	$2	0xae37a7…
06-08 12:52:12	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	11¢	$2	0x303708…
06-08 12:47:27	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x2b82fb…
06-08 12:40:55	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	11¢	$2	0xacbbaf…
06-08 12:29:52	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	11¢	$2	0x9f7744…
06-08 12:18:43	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	11¢	$2	0xad39ac…
06-08 12:06:10	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	11¢	$2	0xb489bc…
06-08 11:54:39	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	11¢	$2	0x68ead9…
06-08 11:41:45	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	11¢	$2	0xfcb862…
06-08 11:29:03	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	11¢	$2	0xe4a9e4…
06-08 11:18:24	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	11¢	$0	0x0a8bcc…
06-08 11:16:03	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	11¢	$2	0xfb41bb…
06-08 11:03:30	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	11¢	$2	0x250821…
06-08 11:00:57	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	37	73¢	$27	0x19f33d…
06-08 10:50:28	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	11¢	$2	0x0749eb…
06-08 10:45:54	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5,348	11¢	$588	0x86d88c…
06-08 10:37:31	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	11¢	$2	0x5b3779…
06-08 10:34:33	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	11¢	$3	0xb6ca8f…
06-08 10:25:09	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	11¢	$2	0x4d080a…
06-08 10:24:55	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	78	73¢	$57	0x1f5813…
06-08 10:23:42	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	11¢	$1	0x7af3d0…
06-08 10:12:22	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	11¢	$2	0x090f3f…
06-08 10:09:42	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	11¢	$2	0xe456dd…
06-08 10:00:42	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	11¢	$2	0xb32135…
06-08 09:50:10	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	11¢	$2	0xfc769c…
06-08 09:47:46	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	11¢	$0	0x434df8…
06-08 09:38:07	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	11¢	$2	0xbdd0e8…
06-08 09:25:54	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	11¢	$2	0x460870…
06-08 09:24:30	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	748	11¢	$82	0x61b568…
06-08 09:13:37	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	11¢	$2	0x505504…
06-08 09:01:57	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	11¢	$2	0x415b6c…
06-08 08:50:21	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	11¢	$2	0xa09f11…
06-08 08:48:45	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	999	11¢	$110	0x1eb7de…
06-08 08:37:49	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	11¢	$2	0x9fc2fc…
06-08 08:26:46	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	11¢	$2	0x5364f4…
06-08 08:15:58	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	11¢	$2	0xe565f0…
06-08 08:05:06	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	11¢	$2	0xece9ce…
06-08 07:54:18	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	11¢	$2	0x1427d3…
06-08 07:42:39	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	11¢	$2	0x540ffd…
06-08 07:32:31	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	11¢	$2	0x759098…
06-08 07:22:07	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	11¢	$2	0x4ffb98…
06-08 07:11:58	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	11¢	$2	0x550064…
06-08 07:00:54	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	11¢	$1	0xd2953d…
06-08 06:54:43	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	11¢	$1	0xcbdd17…
06-08 06:49:55	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	11¢	$1	0x6d0709…
06-08 06:49:12	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	110	73¢	$80	0x5d3d39…
06-08 06:46:42	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	11¢	$1	0x943482…
06-08 06:42:27	Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	620	73¢	$453	0x3d7468…
06-08 05:47:39	starmer out by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xe51fcd…
06-08 05:42:18	starmer out by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x168b6f…
06-08 05:36:25	starmer out by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0xa55c00…
06-08 05:35:01	starmer out by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	2	36¢	$1	0x86d1a6…
06-08 05:34:39	starmer out by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0xd27a28…
06-08 05:34:31	starmer out by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	126	36¢	$45	0x323af6…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71	486	$2.88M	55,112	06-09 15:33
Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71	474	$58.1K	14,112	06-01 12:04
Faraway-Seaside 0xf0b0…8cab	461	$1.06M	93,781	06-01 00:29
Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3	457	$417.5K	4,029	06-08 20:26
Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418	444	$52.2M	80,750	06-09 14:06
(anonymous) 0xd6ee…37a2	428	$495.7K	45,556	04-01 19:08
(anonymous) 0xca8f…d963	423	$143.8K	54,177	04-24 05:08
(anonymous) 0x9474…5091	383	$42.4K	25,183	06-01 13:52