Realized P&L
-$412
Unrealized P&L
-$15
Hit rate
50.3%
Resolved
583
Trades
1,263
lifetime
Volume
$4.90K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$4
Open exposure
$76
30 positions
First seen
2026-03-15
last 10-24 23:45
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 140 days
Categories
Other
45% 41% -$233
Politics
37% 35% -$89
Sports
10% 46% -$71
Crypto
5% 58% +$2
Tech
3% 33% -$21
Pop-Culture
0% 0% -$1
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
19 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes -86 -$5 43¢ $-37 -$32 06-11 08:28
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026? Yes -205 -$6 7¢ $-14 -$8 06-11 09:21
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No +6 $5 94¢ $5 +$1 06-18 07:32
Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? Yes -10 -$3 37¢ $-4 -$1 06-14 09:00
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes +9 $5 32¢ $3 -$2 06-13 08:21
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026? Yes -10 -$3 21¢ $-2 +$1 06-11 08:28
Iran Nuke before 2027? Yes -33 -$3 5¢ $-2 +$1 06-10 02:46
Record crypto liquidation in 2026? Yes -25 -$2 6¢ $-1 +$0 06-10 02:46
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch before 2027? Yes -10 -$1 14¢ $-1 -$1 06-11 09:17
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? Yes -71 -$14 2¢ $-1 +$13 05-11 09:31
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.75% or higher before 2027? Yes -10 -$1 6¢ $-1 $0 06-11 09:05
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes -10 $0 5¢ $-1 $0 06-11 08:57
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Yes -10 $0 5¢ $-0 $0 06-11 08:57
Will the Republicans win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026? Yes -10 $0 4¢ $-0 +$0 06-11 08:58
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes -10 -$1 4¢ $-0 +$0 06-11 08:57
Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026? Yes -4 -$1 10¢ $-0 +$0 06-09 21:09
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? Yes -10 $0 4¢ $-0 +$0 06-10 02:45
Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes -10 $0 3¢ $-0 $0 06-11 09:17
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? Yes -10 -$1 3¢ $-0 +$1 06-11 08:28
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? Yes -10 -$1 3¢ $-0 +$0 06-11 08:57
Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower? Yes -160 -$8 0¢ $-0 +$8 04-28 17:31
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.5% or lower before 2027? Yes -10 $0 2¢ $-0 +$0 06-11 08:59
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? Yes +67 $1 0¢ $0 -$1 10-05 11:22
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes -10 $0 2¢ $-0 +$0 06-11 08:57
Fed emergency rate cut before 2027? Yes -10 -$1 2¢ $-0 +$0 06-11 09:17
Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes -36 -$1 0¢ $-0 +$1 06-10 02:45
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day? Yes -10 -$1 1¢ $-0 +$1 06-11 08:28
Brex IPO before 2027? Yes -10 $0 1¢ $-0 +$0 06-11 08:57
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes -10 $0 0¢ $-0 +$0 06-11 08:58
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes -10 $0 0¢ $-0 +$0 06-11 08:58