Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.5% or lower before 2027?
open
Total volume
$5,853
$111 in 24h
Trades
92
Unique wallets
42
Liquidity
$7,776
Latest YES mid
2¢
Latest NO mid
98¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-28
last 07-28 07:30
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-1.2¢
(top1%: 0% YES on $19
vs crowd: 1% YES on $3.5K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 2 | — | $1.9K | $1.9K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 9 | $12 | $255 | $243 |
| 🐟 Fish | 6 | $14 | $493 | $479 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 25 | $15 | $763 | $748 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 1 | — | $19 | $19 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 5 | $12 | $1.9K | $1.9K |
| Median | 4 | $0 | $130 | $130 |
| Below median | 4 | $2 | $35 | $33 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 5 | $12 | — | +$12 |
| unranked | 23 | $15 | $1.3K | $1.3K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Punctual-Sand 0x21d0…ce91 | No | +2,029 | $1,939 | $1,939 | 1 | 07-14 16:49 |
| (anonymous) 0x82e9…b34c | No | +516 | $493 | $493 | 3 | 07-15 14:30 |
| (anonymous) 0x393d…8fae | Yes | +215 | $10 | $10 | 2 | 07-11 16:53 |
| (anonymous) 0x7410…f96f | No | +195 | $186 | $186 | 2 | 07-07 05:51 |
| Weepy-Infusion 0x510b…da8d | Yes | +138 | $3 | $3 | 3 | 07-28 07:30 |
| Rude-Ecology 0x7ac4…4f44 | Yes | +100 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 07-14 16:49 |
| Obedient-Population 0x6c37…d40f | Yes | +100 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 07-14 16:49 |
| (anonymous) 0xf22b…7eab | Yes | +100 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-29 13:32 |
| Another-Parenting 0xbb2e…5bbf | No | +88 | $84 | $84 | 1 | 07-15 21:30 |
| Superior-Format 0x7ab6…fa77 | Yes | +88 | $4 | $4 | 2 | 07-07 05:51 |
| Profitable-Punishment 0x5739…b180 | Yes | +51 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-29 14:41 |
| (anonymous) 0x86ae…a071 | No | +51 | $50 | $50 | 1 | 07-28 07:30 |
| (anonymous) 0xb3ca…1a85 | No | +50 | $48 | $48 | 1 | 07-11 16:28 |
| (anonymous) 0x0c11…8168 | No | +50 | $48 | $48 | 1 | 07-11 16:28 |
| Silver-Stool 0xb924…0803 | Yes | +44 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 07-14 16:49 |
| (anonymous) 0x1e77…712e | No | +41 | $39 | $41 | 3 | 07-26 18:54 |
| (anonymous) 0xaf91…c94f | No | +35 | $35 | $35 | 1 | 07-23 21:33 |
| (anonymous) 0xb115…04df | No | +30 | $30 | $30 | 1 | 07-28 07:30 |
| (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | +10 | $1 | $3 | 8 | 07-28 07:30 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-28 07:30:16 | Weepy-Infusion 0x510b…da8d | Yes | BUY | 89 | 2¢ | $2 | 0x3a298c… |
| 07-28 07:30:16 | (anonymous) 0x86ae…a071 | No | BUY | 51 | 98¢ | $50 | 0x3a298c… |
| 07-28 07:30:16 | (anonymous) 0xb115…04df | No | BUY | 30 | 98¢ | $30 | 0x3a298c… |
| 07-28 07:30:16 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | SELL | 7 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x3a298c… |
| 07-26 18:54:55 | (anonymous) 0x1e77…712e | No | SELL | 1 | 99¢ | $1 | 0x464dda… |
| 07-26 18:54:55 | Weepy-Infusion 0x510b…da8d | Yes | SELL | 1 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x464dda… |
| 07-23 21:33:00 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | SELL | 8 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xe3e060… |
| 07-23 21:33:00 | (anonymous) 0xaf91…c94f | No | BUY | 35 | 98¢ | $35 | 0xe3e060… |
| 07-23 21:33:00 | Weepy-Infusion 0x510b…da8d | Yes | BUY | 50 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xe3e060… |
| 07-15 21:30:14 | Wretched-Outrigger 0x96e8…d240 | No | SELL | 12 | 96¢ | $11 | 0x6cd00c… |
| 07-15 21:30:14 | Another-Parenting 0xbb2e…5bbf | No | BUY | 88 | 96¢ | $84 | 0x6cd00c… |
| 07-15 21:30:14 | (anonymous) 0xf683…99e9 | No | SELL | 53 | 96¢ | $51 | 0x6cd00c… |
| 07-15 21:30:14 | (anonymous) 0xf320…9dfc | No | SELL | 23 | 96¢ | $22 | 0x6cd00c… |
| 07-15 14:30:14 | Wretched-Outrigger 0x96e8…d240 | No | SELL | 158 | 96¢ | $151 | 0xc57e99… |
| 07-15 14:30:14 | (anonymous) 0x82e9…b34c | No | BUY | 158 | 96¢ | $151 | 0xc57e99… |
| 07-14 17:13:22 | (anonymous) 0xabf2…83ed | No | SELL | 52 | 96¢ | $49 | 0xbfd51d… |
| 07-14 17:13:22 | (anonymous) 0x82e9…b34c | No | BUY | 258 | 96¢ | $246 | 0xbfd51d… |
| 07-14 17:13:22 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xbfd51d… |
| 07-14 17:13:22 | Wretched-Outrigger 0x96e8…d240 | No | SELL | 200 | 96¢ | $191 | 0xbfd51d… |
| 07-14 16:49:41 | (anonymous) 0xca22…96ec | No | SELL | 50 | 95¢ | $48 | 0x0b04cd… |
| 07-14 16:49:41 | (anonymous) 0xad99…dbab | No | SELL | 21 | 95¢ | $20 | 0x0b04cd… |
| 07-14 16:49:41 | Silver-Stool 0xb924…0803 | Yes | BUY | 44 | 4¢ | $2 | 0x0b04cd… |
| 07-14 16:49:41 | Wretched-Outrigger 0x96e8…d240 | No | SELL | 200 | 96¢ | $191 | 0x0b04cd… |
| 07-14 16:49:41 | Obedient-Population 0x6c37…d40f | Yes | BUY | 100 | 4¢ | $4 | 0x0b04cd… |
| 07-14 16:49:41 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | BUY | 26 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x0b04cd… |
| 07-14 16:49:41 | Rude-Ecology 0x7ac4…4f44 | Yes | BUY | 100 | 4¢ | $4 | 0x0b04cd… |
| 07-14 16:49:41 | Punctual-Sand 0x21d0…ce91 | No | BUY | 2,029 | 96¢ | $1,939 | 0x0b04cd… |
| 07-14 16:49:41 | (anonymous) 0x7ca5…82de | No | SELL | 25 | 95¢ | $24 | 0x0b04cd… |
| 07-14 16:49:41 | (anonymous) 0x1128…70b9 | No | SELL | 53 | 95¢ | $51 | 0x0b04cd… |
| 07-14 16:49:41 | Sardonic-Cue 0x8a7b…782f | No | SELL | 1,010 | 96¢ | $966 | 0x0b04cd… |
| 07-13 06:41:34 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | SELL | 100 | 95¢ | $95 | 0x69ecb9… |
| 07-13 06:41:34 | (anonymous) 0x82e9…b34c | No | BUY | 100 | 95¢ | $95 | 0x69ecb9… |
| 07-12 12:09:11 | (anonymous) 0x40c7…b1e8 | Yes | SELL | 3 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x6641d9… |
| 07-12 12:09:11 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | SELL | 3 | 95¢ | $3 | 0x6641d9… |
| 07-12 12:08:07 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | SELL | 5 | 95¢ | $5 | 0x5f3dc4… |
| 07-12 12:08:07 | (anonymous) 0xb2ca…cf4d | Yes | SELL | 5 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x5f3dc4… |
| 07-11 16:53:38 | (anonymous) 0x393d…8fae | Yes | BUY | 31 | 5¢ | $2 | 0xe0508b… |
| 07-11 16:53:38 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | BUY | 31 | 95¢ | $30 | 0xe0508b… |
| 07-11 16:28:55 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | BUY | 22 | 95¢ | $21 | 0xfe08c5… |
| 07-11 16:28:55 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | SELL | 7 | 5¢ | $0 | 0xfe08c5… |
| 07-11 16:28:55 | (anonymous) 0xb3ca…1a85 | No | BUY | 50 | 95¢ | $48 | 0xfe08c5… |
| 07-11 16:28:55 | (anonymous) 0x393d…8fae | Yes | BUY | 184 | 5¢ | $9 | 0xfe08c5… |
| 07-11 16:28:55 | (anonymous) 0x0c11…8168 | No | BUY | 50 | 95¢ | $48 | 0xfe08c5… |
| 07-10 22:02:23 | (anonymous) 0xdb2d…1dc7 | Yes | SELL | 91 | 5¢ | $4 | 0x3813f0… |
| 07-10 22:02:23 | (anonymous) 0x7ca5…82de | No | SELL | 25 | 95¢ | $24 | 0x3813f0… |
| 07-10 22:02:23 | (anonymous) 0xc041…3bec | No | SELL | 53 | 95¢ | $51 | 0x3813f0… |
| 07-10 22:02:23 | (anonymous) 0x69fb…1e56 | No | SELL | 13 | 95¢ | $12 | 0x3813f0… |
| 07-07 05:51:44 | Superior-Format 0x7ab6…fa77 | Yes | BUY | 73 | 5¢ | $3 | 0x58e4f0… |
| 07-07 05:51:44 | Superior-Format 0x7ab6…fa77 | Yes | BUY | 14 | 5¢ | $1 | 0xc0a830… |
| 07-07 05:51:44 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 6 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x58e4f0… |
| 07-07 05:51:44 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | SELL | 9 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x58e4f0… |
| 07-07 05:51:44 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 14 | 5¢ | $1 | 0xc0a830… |
| 07-07 05:51:44 | (anonymous) 0x7410…f96f | No | BUY | 58 | 95¢ | $56 | 0x58e4f0… |
| 07-07 05:49:01 | (anonymous) 0xf587…222b | No | SELL | 37 | 95¢ | $35 | 0xdfbd5e… |
| 07-07 05:49:01 | (anonymous) 0x7410…f96f | No | BUY | 137 | 95¢ | $130 | 0xdfbd5e… |
| 07-07 05:49:01 | Wretched-Outrigger 0x96e8…d240 | No | SELL | 100 | 95¢ | $95 | 0xdfbd5e… |
| 07-02 05:15:10 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | BUY | 16 | 5¢ | $1 | 0xf9813d… |
| 07-02 05:15:10 | (anonymous) 0xad99…dbab | No | BUY | 21 | 95¢ | $20 | 0xf9813d… |
| 07-02 05:15:10 | (anonymous) 0xf587…222b | No | SELL | 5 | 95¢ | $5 | 0xf9813d… |
| 06-29 20:06:32 | (anonymous) 0xd52a…c011 | Yes | SELL | 41 | 5¢ | $2 | 0x62843f… |
| 06-29 20:06:32 | (anonymous) 0x69fb…1e56 | No | SELL | 41 | 95¢ | $39 | 0x62843f… |
| 06-29 20:06:05 | (anonymous) 0xd52a…c011 | Yes | BUY | 41 | 5¢ | $2 | 0x039988… |
| 06-29 20:06:05 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 26 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x039988… |
| 06-29 20:06:05 | (anonymous) 0x1e77…712e | No | BUY | 16 | 95¢ | $15 | 0x039988… |
| 06-29 14:41:31 | Profitable-Punishment 0x5739…b180 | Yes | BUY | 51 | 5¢ | $2 | 0x8f3abe… |
| 06-29 14:41:31 | (anonymous) 0xca22…96ec | No | BUY | 25 | 95¢ | $23 | 0x8f3abe… |
| 06-29 14:41:31 | (anonymous) 0x1e77…712e | No | BUY | 26 | 95¢ | $25 | 0x8f3abe… |
| 06-29 13:32:26 | (anonymous) 0xca22…96ec | No | BUY | 25 | 95¢ | $24 | 0xccb8d3… |
| 06-29 13:32:26 | (anonymous) 0xf22b…7eab | Yes | BUY | 100 | 5¢ | $5 | 0xccb8d3… |
| 06-29 13:32:26 | (anonymous) 0x1128…70b9 | No | BUY | 33 | 95¢ | $31 | 0xccb8d3… |
| 06-29 13:32:26 | (anonymous) 0xf587…222b | No | BUY | 42 | 95¢ | $40 | 0xccb8d3… |
| 06-25 14:50:50 | Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | Yes | SELL | 30 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x1a67fa… |
| 06-25 14:50:50 | (anonymous) 0xb2ca…cf4d | Yes | BUY | 5 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x1a67fa… |
| 06-25 14:50:50 | (anonymous) 0xe94c…3969 | No | SELL | 22 | 95¢ | $21 | 0x1a67fa… |
| 06-25 14:50:50 | (anonymous) 0x40c7…b1e8 | Yes | BUY | 3 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x1a67fa… |
| 06-22 15:25:53 | (anonymous) 0xe94c…3969 | No | SELL | 20 | 95¢ | $19 | 0x8dd505… |
| 06-22 15:25:53 | Wretched-Outrigger 0x96e8…d240 | No | BUY | 20 | 95¢ | $19 | 0x8dd505… |
| 06-20 09:41:49 | (anonymous) 0x69fb…1e56 | No | BUY | 10 | 95¢ | $9 | 0xf00f3f… |
| 06-20 09:41:49 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | SELL | 30 | 95¢ | $29 | 0xf00f3f… |
| 06-20 09:41:49 | (anonymous) 0x1128…70b9 | No | BUY | 20 | 95¢ | $19 | 0xf00f3f… |
| 06-20 03:06:13 | (anonymous) 0x7ca5…82de | No | BUY | 50 | 95¢ | $48 | 0x22833e… |
| 06-20 03:06:13 | Starchy-Deviation 0x8a55…3923 | No | SELL | 94 | 95¢ | $90 | 0x22833e… |
| 06-20 03:06:13 | (anonymous) 0x69fb…1e56 | No | BUY | 44 | 95¢ | $42 | 0x22833e… |
| 06-11 08:59:33 | Fitting-Diploma 0x4fb1…5d3a | No | SELL | 2 | 95¢ | $2 | 0x70213e… |
| 06-11 08:59:33 | Robust-Fox 0xdc17…c4ab | Yes | SELL | 10 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x70213e… |
| 06-11 08:59:33 | (anonymous) 0xe94c…3969 | No | SELL | 8 | 95¢ | $8 | 0x70213e… |
| 06-09 06:48:18 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | BUY | 30 | 95¢ | $29 | 0xe79377… |
| 06-09 06:48:18 | Wretched-Outrigger 0x96e8…d240 | No | SELL | 30 | 95¢ | $29 | 0xe79377… |
| 05-28 02:14:17 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 5¢ | $1 | 0xa37d8e… |
| 05-28 02:14:17 | Fitting-Diploma 0x4fb1…5d3a | No | SELL | 49 | 95¢ | $47 | 0xa37d8e… |
| 05-28 02:14:17 | Starchy-Deviation 0x8a55…3923 | No | BUY | 94 | 95¢ | $90 | 0xa37d8e… |
| 05-28 02:14:17 | Wretched-Outrigger 0x96e8…d240 | No | SELL | 20 | 95¢ | $19 | 0xa37d8e… |