Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.5% or lower before 2027?
open
Total volume
$1,171
$111 in 24h
Trades
49
Unique wallets
25
Liquidity
$7,776
Latest YES mid
5¢
Latest NO mid
95¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-28
last 07-10 22:02
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-2.4¢
(top1%: 0% YES on $19
vs crowd: 2% YES on $636)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐬 Dolphin | 6 | $10 | $48 | $38 |
| 🐟 Fish | 3 | $2 | $20 | $18 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 16 | $3 | $553 | $550 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 1 | — | $19 | $19 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 2 | $5 | — | +$5 |
| Median | 3 | — | $130 | $130 |
| Below median | 1 | — | — | +— |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 4 | $8 | — | +$8 |
| unranked | 14 | $3 | $472 | $469 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (anonymous) 0x7410…f96f | No | +195 | $186 | $186 | 2 | 07-07 05:51 |
| (anonymous) 0xf22b…7eab | Yes | +100 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 06-29 13:32 |
| Superior-Format 0x7ab6…fa77 | Yes | +88 | $4 | $4 | 2 | 07-07 05:51 |
| (anonymous) 0x1128…70b9 | No | +53 | $51 | $51 | 2 | 06-29 13:32 |
| Profitable-Punishment 0x5739…b180 | Yes | +51 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-29 14:41 |
| (anonymous) 0xca22…96ec | No | +50 | $48 | $48 | 2 | 06-29 14:41 |
| (anonymous) 0x1e77…712e | No | +42 | $40 | $40 | 2 | 06-29 20:06 |
| (anonymous) 0x7ca5…82de | No | +25 | $24 | $72 | 2 | 07-10 22:02 |
| (anonymous) 0xad99…dbab | No | +21 | $20 | $20 | 1 | 07-02 05:15 |
| (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | +7 | $0 | $1 | 2 | 07-07 05:51 |
| (anonymous) 0xb2ca…cf4d | Yes | +5 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 06-25 14:50 |
| (anonymous) 0x40c7…b1e8 | Yes | +3 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 06-25 14:50 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-10 22:02:23 | (anonymous) 0x69fb…1e56 | No | SELL | 13 | 95¢ | $12 | 0x3813f0… |
| 07-10 22:02:23 | (anonymous) 0xdb2d…1dc7 | Yes | SELL | 91 | 5¢ | $4 | 0x3813f0… |
| 07-10 22:02:23 | (anonymous) 0xc041…3bec | No | SELL | 53 | 95¢ | $51 | 0x3813f0… |
| 07-10 22:02:23 | (anonymous) 0x7ca5…82de | No | SELL | 25 | 95¢ | $24 | 0x3813f0… |
| 07-07 05:51:44 | Superior-Format 0x7ab6…fa77 | Yes | BUY | 14 | 5¢ | $1 | 0xc0a830… |
| 07-07 05:51:44 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | SELL | 9 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x58e4f0… |
| 07-07 05:51:44 | (anonymous) 0x7410…f96f | No | BUY | 58 | 95¢ | $56 | 0x58e4f0… |
| 07-07 05:51:44 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 6 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x58e4f0… |
| 07-07 05:51:44 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 14 | 5¢ | $1 | 0xc0a830… |
| 07-07 05:51:44 | Superior-Format 0x7ab6…fa77 | Yes | BUY | 73 | 5¢ | $3 | 0x58e4f0… |
| 07-07 05:49:01 | Wretched-Outrigger 0x96e8…d240 | No | SELL | 100 | 95¢ | $95 | 0xdfbd5e… |
| 07-07 05:49:01 | (anonymous) 0xf587…222b | No | SELL | 37 | 95¢ | $35 | 0xdfbd5e… |
| 07-07 05:49:01 | (anonymous) 0x7410…f96f | No | BUY | 137 | 95¢ | $130 | 0xdfbd5e… |
| 07-02 05:15:10 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | BUY | 16 | 5¢ | $1 | 0xf9813d… |
| 07-02 05:15:10 | (anonymous) 0xad99…dbab | No | BUY | 21 | 95¢ | $20 | 0xf9813d… |
| 07-02 05:15:10 | (anonymous) 0xf587…222b | No | SELL | 5 | 95¢ | $5 | 0xf9813d… |
| 06-29 20:06:32 | (anonymous) 0xd52a…c011 | Yes | SELL | 41 | 5¢ | $2 | 0x62843f… |
| 06-29 20:06:32 | (anonymous) 0x69fb…1e56 | No | SELL | 41 | 95¢ | $39 | 0x62843f… |
| 06-29 20:06:05 | (anonymous) 0x1e77…712e | No | BUY | 16 | 95¢ | $15 | 0x039988… |
| 06-29 20:06:05 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 26 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x039988… |
| 06-29 20:06:05 | (anonymous) 0xd52a…c011 | Yes | BUY | 41 | 5¢ | $2 | 0x039988… |
| 06-29 14:41:31 | (anonymous) 0x1e77…712e | No | BUY | 26 | 95¢ | $25 | 0x8f3abe… |
| 06-29 14:41:31 | (anonymous) 0xca22…96ec | No | BUY | 25 | 95¢ | $23 | 0x8f3abe… |
| 06-29 14:41:31 | Profitable-Punishment 0x5739…b180 | Yes | BUY | 51 | 5¢ | $2 | 0x8f3abe… |
| 06-29 13:32:26 | (anonymous) 0xf22b…7eab | Yes | BUY | 100 | 5¢ | $5 | 0xccb8d3… |
| 06-29 13:32:26 | (anonymous) 0x1128…70b9 | No | BUY | 33 | 95¢ | $31 | 0xccb8d3… |
| 06-29 13:32:26 | (anonymous) 0xf587…222b | No | BUY | 42 | 95¢ | $40 | 0xccb8d3… |
| 06-29 13:32:26 | (anonymous) 0xca22…96ec | No | BUY | 25 | 95¢ | $24 | 0xccb8d3… |
| 06-25 14:50:50 | Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | Yes | SELL | 30 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x1a67fa… |
| 06-25 14:50:50 | (anonymous) 0xe94c…3969 | No | SELL | 22 | 95¢ | $21 | 0x1a67fa… |
| 06-25 14:50:50 | (anonymous) 0xb2ca…cf4d | Yes | BUY | 5 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x1a67fa… |
| 06-25 14:50:50 | (anonymous) 0x40c7…b1e8 | Yes | BUY | 3 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x1a67fa… |
| 06-22 15:25:53 | Wretched-Outrigger 0x96e8…d240 | No | BUY | 20 | 95¢ | $19 | 0x8dd505… |
| 06-22 15:25:53 | (anonymous) 0xe94c…3969 | No | SELL | 20 | 95¢ | $19 | 0x8dd505… |
| 06-20 09:41:49 | (anonymous) 0x69fb…1e56 | No | BUY | 10 | 95¢ | $9 | 0xf00f3f… |
| 06-20 09:41:49 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | SELL | 30 | 95¢ | $29 | 0xf00f3f… |
| 06-20 09:41:49 | (anonymous) 0x1128…70b9 | No | BUY | 20 | 95¢ | $19 | 0xf00f3f… |
| 06-20 03:06:13 | (anonymous) 0x69fb…1e56 | No | BUY | 44 | 95¢ | $42 | 0x22833e… |
| 06-20 03:06:13 | Starchy-Deviation 0x8a55…3923 | No | SELL | 94 | 95¢ | $90 | 0x22833e… |
| 06-20 03:06:13 | (anonymous) 0x7ca5…82de | No | BUY | 50 | 95¢ | $48 | 0x22833e… |
| 06-11 08:59:33 | Fitting-Diploma 0x4fb1…5d3a | No | SELL | 2 | 95¢ | $2 | 0x70213e… |
| 06-11 08:59:33 | (anonymous) 0xe94c…3969 | No | SELL | 8 | 95¢ | $8 | 0x70213e… |
| 06-11 08:59:33 | Robust-Fox 0xdc17…c4ab | Yes | SELL | 10 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x70213e… |
| 06-09 06:48:18 | Wretched-Outrigger 0x96e8…d240 | No | SELL | 30 | 95¢ | $29 | 0xe79377… |
| 06-09 06:48:18 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | BUY | 30 | 95¢ | $29 | 0xe79377… |
| 05-28 02:14:17 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 5¢ | $1 | 0xa37d8e… |
| 05-28 02:14:17 | Fitting-Diploma 0x4fb1…5d3a | No | SELL | 49 | 95¢ | $47 | 0xa37d8e… |
| 05-28 02:14:17 | Wretched-Outrigger 0x96e8…d240 | No | SELL | 20 | 95¢ | $19 | 0xa37d8e… |
| 05-28 02:14:17 | Starchy-Deviation 0x8a55…3923 | No | BUY | 94 | 95¢ | $90 | 0xa37d8e… |