Obedient-Population — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$56

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

55.4%

Resolved

366

Trades

47,580

lifetime

Volume

$69.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-11

last 08-13 02:20

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 23 days

Categories

Other

47% 21% +$7

Politics

27% 21% $-6

Crypto

19% 29% $-49

Tech

6% 0% $-5

Sports

1% 0% $-3

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

81 active days in 12wk • peak 218 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	421	$680	5,596	6,093	-498	open	—	07-27 01:24
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	180	$625	8,098	8,143	-45	open	—	05-29 20:40
netanyahu out by march 31 854	242	$590	9,313	9,313	+0	open	—	03-30 10:47
will bitcoin dip to 55k in march 2026	203	$563	6,371	6,371	+0	open	—	03-30 19:20
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	111	$539	4,971	4,945	+26	Yes	+$32	05-08 12:19
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	170	$475	7,599	7,548	+51	open	—	05-12 07:43
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	116	$463	4,951	4,951	+0	open	—	06-28 22:58
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	193	$452	8,177	8,059	+119	open	—	03-29 05:04
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	120	$413	4,229	4,129	+100	Yes	+$6	04-28 06:14
will crude oil cl hit high 150 by end of march 138 937 747	139	$380	6,082	5,967	+114	open	—	03-30 11:59
Xi Jinping out before 2027?	69	$376	2,869	2,869	+0	open	—	07-26 22:24
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	118	$376	3,890	3,877	+12	open	—	04-28 05:56
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	108	$363	2,776	2,776	+0	open	—	04-28 09:42
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	191	$336	8,200	7,905	+295	open	—	04-27 19:53
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	94	$335	4,500	4,600	-100	open	—	05-13 16:18
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	134	$320	6,324	6,324	+0	open	—	04-27 12:30
will crude oil cl hit high 180 by end of march 692	141	$313	6,081	6,053	+28	open	—	03-29 20:14
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?	50	$311	2,500	2,300	+200	open	—	06-12 18:08
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	232	$307	8,620	8,750	-130	open	—	05-29 21:42
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	85	$303	3,547	3,492	+54	open	—	07-27 10:19
will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	183	$297	7,760	7,651	+108	open	—	03-30 06:13
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	161	$295	6,350	6,151	+199	open	—	04-27 01:11
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?	60	$290	2,439	2,521	-82	open	—	04-30 09:59
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	102	$280	3,975	3,975	+0	open	—	03-04 18:47
GTA VI released before June 2026?	273	$273	8,613	8,673	-60	open	—	05-31 07:49
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	165	$269	6,914	6,731	+183	open	—	03-30 02:15
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	196	$265	8,049	7,971	+78	open	—	04-28 10:34
will bitcoin reach 85k in march 2026	113	$254	4,337	4,404	-67	open	—	03-31 07:22
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	55	$252	2,259	2,159	+100	open	—	05-01 09:07
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	58	$247	2,607	2,486	+121	open	—	02-21 18:52

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-13 02:20:40	Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	59	5¢	$3	0x04b0ea…
08-12 05:55:15	Will BNB reach $1600 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	6¢	$0	0x6576ff…
08-12 04:37:04	Will BNB reach $1600 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	6¢	$0	0x98d6fc…
08-12 02:57:24	Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	100	6¢	$6	0xf334f2…
08-11 20:53:01	Will BNB reach $1600 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	6¢	$0	0xec3562…
08-11 12:39:30	Will BNB reach $1600 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	6¢	$0	0x74917f…
08-11 11:01:24	Will BNB reach $1600 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	6¢	$0	0xb50989…
08-11 10:04:58	Will BNB reach $1600 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	6¢	$0	0x2dfaa2…
08-11 03:54:40	Will BNB reach $1600 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	6¢	$0	0xadba34…
08-10 14:00:15	Will BNB reach $1600 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	6¢	$0	0x5bf2bb…
08-10 11:57:03	Will BNB reach $1600 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	32	6¢	$2	0x3792b9…
08-08 18:15:16	spacex ipo officially added to sp 500 in 2026 20260608202834697	Yes	SELL	100	4¢	$4	0x6684a5…
08-07 03:54:00	Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	6¢	$6	0x6406b0…
08-06 15:42:48	Will Nebraska use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	5	20¢	$1	0x3556ea…
08-06 15:32:24	Will Nebraska use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	51	20¢	$10	0xbc929f…
08-05 12:29:35	Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?	No	SELL	8	3¢	$0	0x44e783…
08-05 12:28:54	Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?	No	SELL	9	3¢	$0	0x120bf7…
08-05 12:27:59	Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?	No	SELL	8	3¢	$0	0x696ff0…
08-05 10:04:41	Anduril IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	100	8¢	$8	0x67244b…
08-04 19:12:20	Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?	No	SELL	1	3¢	$0	0x014e71…
08-04 14:29:44	Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?	No	SELL	32	3¢	$1	0x48090f…
08-04 14:29:44	Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?	No	SELL	41	3¢	$1	0x01dbe2…
08-04 02:57:20	Will Ventuals launch a token by September 30 2026?	Yes	SELL	21	1¢	$0	0x5e8cd8…
08-01 18:43:45	Puffpaw FDV above $400M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	100	9¢	$9	0x03fcec…
08-01 12:00:35	will ethereum dip to 500 by december 31 2026 from june 8	Yes	SELL	100	3¢	$3	0x356eb9…
07-31 20:05:05	Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?	Yes	SELL	100	2¢	$2	0x305556…
07-31 18:13:08	Hyperbeat FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	29	15¢	$4	0xe7502d…
07-31 13:58:53	netanyahu out by july 31	Yes	SELL	100	0¢	$0	0x125bcb…
07-31 13:06:57	Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?	Yes	SELL	100	2¢	$2	0x5ede28…
07-30 22:42:50	Hyperbeat FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	10	15¢	$1	0x55ca4e…
07-30 13:30:00	Will Uber ask Travis Kalanick back by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	100	8¢	$8	0x0fbab1…
07-30 04:55:33	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	Yes	SELL	40	2¢	$1	0x45e968…
07-30 02:25:47	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	Yes	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0xbf5758…
07-30 01:21:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	44	0¢	$0	0x1ebc55…
07-30 01:15:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	52	0¢	$0	0xb67dcd…
07-30 01:14:32	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	Yes	BUY	20	3¢	$1	0x04ad54…
07-30 01:14:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	1	0¢	$0	0x45b347…
07-30 01:13:14	tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	Yes	SELL	60	4¢	$2	0xad21a9…
07-30 01:03:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	3	0¢	$0	0xf6c6c0…
07-30 00:58:41	Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	11¢	$1	0x03f7ad…
07-29 22:09:05	Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	11¢	$0	0x0977a2…
07-29 22:07:09	Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	11¢	$2	0x69002a…
07-29 20:20:30	Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	3¢	$0	0x8e092e…
07-29 20:16:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0xd9bc71…
07-29 20:05:48	Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	11¢	$0	0x6aff8c…
07-29 15:29:17	Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	7¢	$7	0xf17e70…
07-29 13:04:39	Will OpenAI announce a computer (Laptop/Desktop) in 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	8¢	$1	0xb7e3b5…
07-29 10:55:39	OpenAI acquired before 2027?	Yes	BUY	12	4¢	$0	0xd172a6…
07-29 10:46:32	will ethereum dip to 700 by december 31 2026 from june 8	Yes	SELL	87	6¢	$6	0x3eb2d5…
07-28 22:23:46	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	SELL	94	9¢	$8	0x58da6a…
07-28 21:53:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	100	0¢	$0	0x83028e…
07-28 16:40:26	UK Recession in 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	3¢	$0	0xccb94b…
07-28 16:27:14	GTA 6 launch postponed again?	Yes	SELL	100	11¢	$11	0xf171a8…
07-28 15:57:17	Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	11¢	$11	0x200aa3…
07-28 15:35:07	putin out as president of russia by august 31 2026	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x5afc85…
07-28 15:30:26	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 7 2026	Yes	SELL	100	2¢	$2	0xe1dd1f…
07-28 14:53:41	netanyahu out by july 31	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x6f0338…
07-28 13:27:58	Will OpenAI announce a phone in 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	2¢	$2	0x1bd42e…
07-28 12:59:31	will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 7 2026	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x3e7d50…
07-28 11:39:41	Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	31	2¢	$1	0x930e46…
07-28 11:33:20	Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	69	2¢	$1	0x2d0d5a…
07-28 08:21:52	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	SELL	6	9¢	$1	0x2d9fb0…
07-28 07:06:45	gemini 4pt0 released by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	100	1¢	$1	0xf61191…
07-28 06:53:28	Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	4¢	$0	0x4f410b…
07-28 03:37:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x7a6cac…
07-28 01:22:13	Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026?	Yes	SELL	83	4¢	$3	0x0da6f9…
07-27 21:43:07	Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0xdca2bc…
07-27 18:24:45	Ethereum all time high by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0x763122…
07-27 16:21:06	putin out as president of russia by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	105	0¢	$0	0xa82fa5…
07-27 12:34:27	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	100	0¢	$0	0x1ec6d3…
07-27 10:19:06	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?	Yes	SELL	79	3¢	$2	0x744890…
07-27 09:47:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x74aae2…
07-27 05:14:33	Ventuals FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0xddad91…
07-27 01:24:31	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	4¢	$4	0xe9c161…
07-26 23:15:15	EU dissolves before 2027?	Yes	SELL	170	2¢	$4	0xeffb1b…
07-26 22:24:34	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	106	5¢	$5	0x91e786…
07-26 21:58:46	Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x7ecece…
07-26 20:56:25	Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	2¢	$2	0xd3f31f…
07-26 13:29:01	Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	6¢	$6	0x95a32d…
07-26 08:51:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	200	1¢	$1	0x506720…
07-26 06:57:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	66	1¢	$0	0xf7c910…
07-26 06:29:10	Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	3¢	$0	0x0517f6…
07-26 05:35:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	65	1¢	$0	0x3c0d37…
07-26 05:21:51	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x6fc694…
07-26 05:17:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	34	1¢	$0	0x44dd0d…
07-26 02:25:10	will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 30 2026	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0xca97f0…
07-26 02:03:15	will the next google gemini pro model be released by july 30 2026	Yes	BUY	4	0¢	$0	0x15f73b…
07-26 00:07:15	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0xec3033…
07-25 23:35:51	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	100	1¢	$1	0xbb5dcb…
07-25 21:49:39	netanyahu out by july 31	Yes	SELL	100	0¢	$0	0xdea679…
07-25 21:23:33	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x9f7bdf…
07-25 20:31:40	Will BMO fail by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x426145…
07-25 19:45:33	will openais valuation hit high 4pt0t by december 31 643	Yes	SELL	72	2¢	$2	0x86961b…
07-25 19:19:07	Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xb843cf…
07-25 19:04:27	Will any FaZe member come out as a furry by July 31?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x9f9a6a…
07-25 18:39:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xf593c5…
07-25 18:23:16	spacex ipo officially added to sp 500 in 2026 20260608202834697	Yes	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0x2829e1…
07-25 15:59:54	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	Yes	SELL	100	8¢	$8	0x51d9b0…
07-25 15:50:36	Xi Jinping out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	6	5¢	$0	0xd6c23f…
07-25 15:22:54	putin out as president of russia by september 30 2026	Yes	SELL	8	4¢	$0	0xbe42e7…