Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.25% or lower before 2027?
open
Total volume
$8,825
Trades
227
Unique wallets
67
Liquidity
$4,667
Latest YES mid
4¢
Latest NO mid
96¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-30
last 08-09 08:46
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-2.5¢
(top1%: 0% YES on $1.3K
vs crowd: 3% YES on $4.2K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 7 | $12 | $1.7K | $1.7K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 19 | $48 | $878 | $830 |
| 🐟 Fish | 15 | $41 | $702 | $661 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 26 | $5 | $722 | $717 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 1 | — | $1.3K | $1.3K |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 1 | — | $234 | $234 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 5 | $12 | $72 | $60 |
| Median | 4 | — | $1 | $1 |
| Below median | 10 | $2 | $504 | $503 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 4 | $9 | $9 | +$0 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 6 | $29 | $76 | $47 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 3 | $10 | $231 | $221 |
| unranked | 33 | $45 | $1.6K | $1.6K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nice-Perennial 0xcdb1…276c | No | +657 | $620 | $2,024 | 2 | 08-08 18:02 |
| (anonymous) 0xf17d…6f86 | No | +408 | $392 | $392 | 4 | 07-26 00:56 |
| (anonymous) 0xbada…d874 | No | +182 | $175 | $293 | 5 | 08-01 11:59 |
| (anonymous) 0xd0de…2ef6 | No | +100 | $96 | $135 | 5 | 07-22 21:39 |
| (anonymous) 0xc7fb…8eb0 | No | +70 | $67 | $67 | 1 | 07-13 17:22 |
| Unlucky-Comparison 0xd883…4fd7 | No | +60 | $55 | $55 | 3 | 07-08 02:56 |
| (anonymous) 0x1fc9…e985 | No | +57 | $54 | $54 | 1 | 07-25 01:28 |
| (anonymous) 0x3aa9…ae2c | No | +50 | $48 | $48 | 1 | 07-08 02:51 |
| Misguided-Proposal 0x7f97…6aaf | No | +50 | $48 | $48 | 3 | 08-01 11:59 |
| Rude-Ecology 0x7ac4…4f44 | Yes | +26 | $1 | $9 | 2 | 08-07 18:10 |
| Purple-Yarn 0x7c9e…db3d | Yes | +22 | $1 | $10 | 3 | 07-08 02:51 |
| Pointless-Casket 0x081a…66d0 | No | +22 | $21 | $21 | 1 | 05-31 15:20 |
| (anonymous) 0xfd06…a977 | Yes | +20 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 08-08 06:28 |
| Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | +20 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 08-08 06:29 |
| (anonymous) 0xb9a6…a9a1 | No | +17 | $16 | $85 | 4 | 08-08 06:28 |
| Mundane-Airbag 0xa3af…b7a6 | No | +9 | $9 | $9 | 1 | 08-08 09:25 |
| (anonymous) 0x2af1…d858 | No | +5 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 08-02 18:06 |
| (anonymous) 0x184b…67b2 | No | +4 | $4 | $7 | 5 | 08-01 11:59 |
| Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | +1 | $0 | $447 | 8 | 08-09 08:46 |
| Courteous-Cloak 0x3e6e…99ea | Yes | +1 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 08-08 06:28 |
| (anonymous) 0x572c…4360 | No | +1 | $0 | $2 | 2 | 08-08 18:02 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-09 08:46:24 | (anonymous) 0xdfc1…0bd1 | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x78ac8b… |
| 08-09 08:46:24 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | BUY | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x78ac8b… |
| 08-08 18:02:24 | (anonymous) 0x2354…46e5 | No | SELL | 40 | 97¢ | $39 | 0x6a1a95… |
| 08-08 18:02:24 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | BUY | 40 | 97¢ | $39 | 0x6a1a95… |
| 08-08 18:02:22 | (anonymous) 0x572c…4360 | No | SELL | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0x7d6f10… |
| 08-08 18:02:22 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | BUY | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0x7d6f10… |
| 08-08 18:02:21 | (anonymous) 0x2354…46e5 | No | BUY | 20 | 98¢ | $20 | 0x666d69… |
| 08-08 18:02:21 | Nice-Perennial 0xcdb1…276c | No | SELL | 720 | 97¢ | $702 | 0x666d69… |
| 08-08 18:02:21 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 640 | 2¢ | $16 | 0x666d69… |
| 08-08 18:02:21 | Frightening-Rainmaker 0x43fd…59d3 | Yes | SELL | 40 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x666d69… |
| 08-08 09:25:16 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | BUY | 9 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xfc52a1… |
| 08-08 09:25:16 | Mundane-Airbag 0xa3af…b7a6 | No | BUY | 9 | 98¢ | $9 | 0xfc52a1… |
| 08-08 06:29:18 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | BUY | 600 | 2¢ | $12 | 0x5d961a… |
| 08-08 06:29:18 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | Yes | SELL | 600 | 2¢ | $12 | 0x5d961a… |
| 08-08 06:29:15 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | BUY | 40 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x260865… |
| 08-08 06:29:15 | (anonymous) 0xc0b6…d8a1 | Yes | SELL | 60 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x260865… |
| 08-08 06:29:15 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x260865… |
| 08-08 06:28:49 | (anonymous) 0xc0b6…d8a1 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x96c6b8… |
| 08-08 06:28:49 | Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse 0xe457…5ab3 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x96c6b8… |
| 08-08 06:28:45 | Courteous-Cloak 0x3e6e…99ea | Yes | BUY | 1 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x80d5da… |
| 08-08 06:28:45 | (anonymous) 0x572c…4360 | No | BUY | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0x80d5da… |
| 08-08 06:28:42 | (anonymous) 0x9de6…e7f0 | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xa89a02… |
| 08-08 06:28:42 | Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse 0xe457…5ab3 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xa89a02… |
| 08-08 06:28:42 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | SELL | 145 | 96¢ | $139 | 0xa89a02… |
| 08-08 06:28:42 | (anonymous) 0x8439…8dae | No | SELL | 59 | 96¢ | $57 | 0xa89a02… |
| 08-08 06:28:42 | (anonymous) 0x4f58…07bc | No | SELL | 42 | 96¢ | $40 | 0xa89a02… |
| 08-08 06:28:42 | (anonymous) 0xffbf…0824 | No | SELL | 62 | 96¢ | $60 | 0xa89a02… |
| 08-08 06:28:42 | (anonymous) 0xb9a6…a9a1 | No | SELL | 2 | 96¢ | $2 | 0xa89a02… |
| 08-08 06:28:42 | (anonymous) 0xeb63…3ba1 | No | SELL | 57 | 96¢ | $55 | 0xa89a02… |
| 08-08 06:28:42 | (anonymous) 0xfd06…a977 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xa89a02… |
| 08-08 06:28:42 | (anonymous) 0xc0b6…d8a1 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xa89a02… |
| 08-08 06:28:42 | Forthright-Dash 0x5309…05ae | No | SELL | 56 | 96¢ | $54 | 0xa89a02… |
| 08-08 06:28:42 | Frightening-Rainmaker 0x43fd…59d3 | Yes | BUY | 40 | 4¢ | $2 | 0xa89a02… |
| 08-08 06:28:42 | (anonymous) 0xecf2…c477 | No | SELL | 52 | 96¢ | $50 | 0xa89a02… |
| 08-08 06:28:42 | (anonymous) 0x76a1…71d8 | No | SELL | 42 | 96¢ | $40 | 0xa89a02… |
| 08-08 06:28:42 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | BUY | 19 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xa89a02… |
| 08-08 06:28:42 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | Yes | BUY | 600 | 4¢ | $24 | 0xa89a02… |
| 08-08 06:28:42 | (anonymous) 0xfb99…3587 | No | SELL | 53 | 96¢ | $51 | 0xa89a02… |
| 08-08 06:28:42 | Nice-Perennial 0xcdb1…276c | No | BUY | 1,377 | 96¢ | $1,322 | 0xa89a02… |
| 08-07 20:01:46 | (anonymous) 0xfba5…27a6 | No | SELL | 53 | 96¢ | $51 | 0xcf5115… |
| 08-07 20:01:46 | (anonymous) 0xb9a6…a9a1 | No | SELL | 34 | 96¢ | $33 | 0xcf5115… |
| 08-07 20:01:46 | (anonymous) 0x474d…b95b | No | SELL | 58 | 96¢ | $56 | 0xcf5115… |
| 08-07 20:01:46 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | BUY | 145 | 96¢ | $139 | 0xcf5115… |
| 08-07 18:10:21 | Rude-Ecology 0x7ac4…4f44 | Yes | SELL | 74 | 5¢ | $4 | 0x603035… |
| 08-07 18:10:21 | Weepy-Infusion 0x510b…da8d | No | SELL | 74 | 95¢ | $70 | 0x603035… |
| 08-02 18:06:50 | Sardonic-Cue 0x8a7b…782f | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x06bb69… |
| 08-02 18:06:50 | (anonymous) 0x2af1…d858 | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x06bb69… |
| 08-01 11:59:57 | Sardonic-Cue 0x8a7b…782f | No | SELL | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0xa3f04b… |
| 08-01 11:59:57 | (anonymous) 0xbada…d874 | No | BUY | 62 | 96¢ | $59 | 0xf720a2… |
| 08-01 11:59:57 | Sardonic-Cue 0x8a7b…782f | No | SELL | 62 | 96¢ | $59 | 0xf720a2… |
| 08-01 11:59:57 | Misguided-Proposal 0x7f97…6aaf | No | BUY | 17 | 96¢ | $16 | 0xf06543… |
| 08-01 11:59:57 | (anonymous) 0x184b…67b2 | No | BUY | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0xa3f04b… |
| 08-01 11:59:57 | Sardonic-Cue 0x8a7b…782f | No | SELL | 17 | 96¢ | $16 | 0xf06543… |
| 08-01 11:15:24 | Sardonic-Cue 0x8a7b…782f | No | SELL | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x81b2b2… |
| 08-01 11:15:24 | Misguided-Proposal 0x7f97…6aaf | No | BUY | 17 | 96¢ | $16 | 0xac6cdd… |
| 08-01 11:15:24 | (anonymous) 0x184b…67b2 | No | BUY | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x81b2b2… |
| 08-01 11:15:24 | Sardonic-Cue 0x8a7b…782f | No | SELL | 17 | 96¢ | $16 | 0xac6cdd… |
| 08-01 11:15:23 | (anonymous) 0xbada…d874 | No | BUY | 62 | 96¢ | $59 | 0x823a44… |
| 08-01 11:15:23 | Sardonic-Cue 0x8a7b…782f | No | SELL | 62 | 96¢ | $59 | 0x823a44… |
| 07-31 18:16:53 | (anonymous) 0xdfc1…0bd1 | No | BUY | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x6b413a… |
| 07-31 18:16:53 | Sardonic-Cue 0x8a7b…782f | No | SELL | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x6b413a… |
| 07-31 18:15:06 | Sardonic-Cue 0x8a7b…782f | No | SELL | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0xa6cd95… |
| 07-31 18:15:06 | (anonymous) 0x184b…67b2 | No | BUY | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0xa6cd95… |
| 07-31 18:15:06 | Sardonic-Cue 0x8a7b…782f | No | SELL | 58 | 96¢ | $56 | 0xd64dba… |
| 07-31 18:15:06 | (anonymous) 0xbada…d874 | No | BUY | 58 | 96¢ | $56 | 0xd64dba… |
| 07-31 10:34:09 | (anonymous) 0xecf2…c477 | No | BUY | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x7d833a… |
| 07-31 10:34:09 | (anonymous) 0xbada…d874 | No | SELL | 62 | 95¢ | $59 | 0x7d833a… |
| 07-31 10:34:09 | (anonymous) 0x184b…67b2 | No | SELL | 2 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x4ef7fe… |
| 07-31 10:34:09 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | BUY | 2 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x4ef7fe… |
| 07-31 10:34:09 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | No | BUY | 61 | 95¢ | $58 | 0x7d833a… |
| 07-28 01:28:07 | Sardonic-Cue 0x8a7b…782f | No | SELL | 6 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x8aaa63… |
| 07-28 01:28:07 | All-Peasant-Drug 0xe907…cff6 | Yes | SELL | 190 | 4¢ | $8 | 0x8aaa63… |
| 07-26 18:54:55 | Weepy-Infusion 0x510b…da8d | No | SELL | 2 | 95¢ | $2 | 0x1b7e7b… |
| 07-26 18:54:55 | (anonymous) 0xecf2…c477 | No | BUY | 2 | 95¢ | $2 | 0x1b7e7b… |
| 07-26 00:56:13 | (anonymous) 0xf17d…6f86 | No | BUY | 46 | 96¢ | $44 | 0xa2af46… |
| 07-26 00:56:13 | Sardonic-Cue 0x8a7b…782f | No | SELL | 46 | 96¢ | $44 | 0xa2af46… |
| 07-26 00:43:21 | (anonymous) 0xf17d…6f86 | No | BUY | 82 | 96¢ | $79 | 0x0aa233… |
| 07-26 00:43:21 | Sardonic-Cue 0x8a7b…782f | No | SELL | 82 | 96¢ | $79 | 0x0aa233… |
| 07-25 19:19:43 | Sardonic-Cue 0x8a7b…782f | No | SELL | 2 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x053452… |
| 07-25 19:19:43 | Sardonic-Cue 0x8a7b…782f | No | SELL | 62 | 96¢ | $60 | 0x1138ff… |
| 07-25 19:19:43 | Misguided-Proposal 0x7f97…6aaf | No | BUY | 17 | 96¢ | $16 | 0xd7c09d… |
| 07-25 19:19:43 | (anonymous) 0x184b…67b2 | No | BUY | 2 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x053452… |
| 07-25 19:19:43 | Sardonic-Cue 0x8a7b…782f | No | SELL | 17 | 96¢ | $16 | 0xd7c09d… |
| 07-25 19:19:43 | (anonymous) 0xbada…d874 | No | BUY | 62 | 96¢ | $60 | 0x1138ff… |
| 07-25 01:28:07 | (anonymous) 0xecf2…c477 | No | BUY | 49 | 95¢ | $47 | 0x87455a… |
| 07-25 01:28:07 | (anonymous) 0x1fc9…e985 | No | BUY | 57 | 95¢ | $54 | 0x87455a… |
| 07-25 01:28:07 | (anonymous) 0x76a1…71d8 | No | BUY | 42 | 95¢ | $40 | 0x87455a… |
| 07-25 01:28:07 | All-Peasant-Drug 0xe907…cff6 | Yes | BUY | 190 | 5¢ | $10 | 0x87455a… |
| 07-25 01:28:07 | (anonymous) 0x4f58…07bc | No | BUY | 42 | 95¢ | $40 | 0x87455a… |
| 07-22 21:39:30 | (anonymous) 0xd0de…2ef6 | No | BUY | 100 | 96¢ | $96 | 0xd614b2… |
| 07-22 21:39:30 | Sardonic-Cue 0x8a7b…782f | No | SELL | 100 | 96¢ | $96 | 0xd614b2… |
| 07-22 21:31:24 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | SELL | 10 | 5¢ | $0 | 0xfdde1f… |
| 07-22 21:31:24 | (anonymous) 0xd0de…2ef6 | No | SELL | 10 | 95¢ | $10 | 0xfdde1f… |
| 07-22 21:29:19 | Sardonic-Cue 0x8a7b…782f | No | SELL | 10 | 96¢ | $10 | 0xabc7bc… |
| 07-22 21:29:19 | (anonymous) 0xd0de…2ef6 | No | BUY | 10 | 96¢ | $10 | 0xabc7bc… |
| 07-22 21:27:43 | (anonymous) 0xd0de…2ef6 | No | SELL | 10 | 95¢ | $10 | 0x703b28… |
| 07-22 21:27:43 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | SELL | 10 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x703b28… |
| 07-22 21:20:22 | (anonymous) 0xd0de…2ef6 | No | BUY | 10 | 96¢ | $10 | 0x56d69b… |
| 07-22 21:20:22 | Sardonic-Cue 0x8a7b…782f | No | SELL | 10 | 96¢ | $10 | 0x56d69b… |
| 07-21 09:33:00 | (anonymous) 0xf17d…6f86 | No | BUY | 76 | 96¢ | $73 | 0x249594… |