Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.25% or lower before 2027?
open
Total volume
$4,155
Trades
126
Unique wallets
45
Liquidity
$4,667
Latest YES mid
4¢
Latest NO mid
96¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-30
last 07-21 05:43
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 4 | $2 | $192 | $190 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 15 | $34 | $528 | $495 |
| 🐟 Fish | 13 | $16 | $364 | $348 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 13 | $2 | $567 | $566 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✅ Top 10% | 5 | $12 | $72 | $60 |
| Median | 3 | — | — | +— |
| Below median | 9 | $2 | $456 | $455 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 1 | $6 | — | +$6 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 7 | $31 | $76 | $45 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 2 | — | $192 | $192 |
| unranked | 18 | $3 | $855 | $852 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (anonymous) 0xf17d…6f86 | No | +204 | $196 | $196 | 1 | 07-21 05:43 |
| Rude-Ecology 0x7ac4…4f44 | Yes | +100 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 05-30 21:30 |
| Weepy-Infusion 0x510b…da8d | No | +76 | $71 | $71 | 2 | 07-08 02:57 |
| (anonymous) 0xc7fb…8eb0 | No | +70 | $67 | $67 | 1 | 07-13 17:22 |
| (anonymous) 0xffbf…0824 | No | +62 | $59 | $59 | 1 | 07-08 02:51 |
| Unlucky-Comparison 0xd883…4fd7 | No | +60 | $55 | $55 | 3 | 07-08 02:56 |
| (anonymous) 0x8439…8dae | No | +59 | $56 | $56 | 1 | 07-08 02:51 |
| (anonymous) 0xeb63…3ba1 | No | +57 | $54 | $54 | 1 | 07-08 02:51 |
| Forthright-Dash 0x5309…05ae | No | +56 | $53 | $53 | 1 | 07-08 02:51 |
| (anonymous) 0xb9a6…a9a1 | No | +53 | $50 | $50 | 2 | 07-08 02:51 |
| (anonymous) 0xfb99…3587 | No | +53 | $50 | $50 | 1 | 07-08 02:51 |
| (anonymous) 0x3aa9…ae2c | No | +50 | $48 | $48 | 1 | 07-08 02:51 |
| Purple-Yarn 0x7c9e…db3d | Yes | +22 | $1 | $10 | 3 | 07-08 02:51 |
| Pointless-Casket 0x081a…66d0 | No | +22 | $21 | $21 | 1 | 05-31 15:20 |
| (anonymous) 0x9de6…e7f0 | No | +5 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 07-08 02:51 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-21 05:43:43 | Sardonic-Cue 0x8a7b…782f | No | SELL | 204 | 96¢ | $196 | 0x3ebb29… |
| 07-21 05:43:43 | (anonymous) 0xf17d…6f86 | No | BUY | 204 | 96¢ | $196 | 0x3ebb29… |
| 07-15 14:46:23 | (anonymous) 0x255e…fed1 | No | SELL | 0 | 95¢ | $0 | 0x05a4eb… |
| 07-15 14:46:23 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | SELL | 0 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x05a4eb… |
| 07-15 14:46:22 | (anonymous) 0xc71b…e265 | Yes | SELL | 81 | 4¢ | $3 | 0x5a0487… |
| 07-15 14:46:22 | Sardonic-Cue 0x8a7b…782f | No | SELL | 81 | 96¢ | $78 | 0x5a0487… |
| 07-14 19:07:26 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | SELL | 0 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x21d75f… |
| 07-14 19:07:26 | Flamboyant-Porch 0xda20…cb8d | No | SELL | 0 | 95¢ | $0 | 0x21d75f… |
| 07-13 17:22:53 | (anonymous) 0x255e…fed1 | No | SELL | 1 | 95¢ | $1 | 0x31cb1b… |
| 07-13 17:22:53 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | SELL | 1 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x31cb1b… |
| 07-13 17:22:52 | (anonymous) 0xc7fb…8eb0 | No | BUY | 70 | 96¢ | $67 | 0xd29c77… |
| 07-13 17:22:52 | Sardonic-Cue 0x8a7b…782f | No | SELL | 70 | 96¢ | $67 | 0xd29c77… |
| 07-13 06:27:16 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | SELL | 0 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x3dfb89… |
| 07-13 06:27:16 | Smart-Cork 0x8494…814a | No | SELL | 0 | 95¢ | $0 | 0x3dfb89… |
| 07-12 10:03:25 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | SELL | 0 | 5¢ | $0 | 0xfb242b… |
| 07-12 10:03:25 | (anonymous) 0xae7d…058f | No | SELL | 0 | 95¢ | $0 | 0xfb242b… |
| 07-09 12:43:02 | Disastrous-Bend 0xe000…cbb1 | Yes | SELL | 38 | 5¢ | $2 | 0xce248b… |
| 07-09 12:43:02 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | SELL | 17 | 5¢ | $1 | 0xce248b… |
| 07-09 12:43:02 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | SELL | 56 | 95¢ | $53 | 0xce248b… |
| 07-08 14:30:23 | (anonymous) 0x255e…fed1 | No | SELL | 0 | 94¢ | $0 | 0xaa545e… |
| 07-08 14:30:23 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | SELL | 0 | 6¢ | $0 | 0xaa545e… |
| 07-08 14:30:19 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | SELL | 1 | 6¢ | $0 | 0xfb53c8… |
| 07-08 14:30:19 | (anonymous) 0x474a…c816 | No | SELL | 1 | 94¢ | $1 | 0xfb53c8… |
| 07-08 14:30:17 | (anonymous) 0x255e…fed1 | No | SELL | 0 | 94¢ | $0 | 0xe108e0… |
| 07-08 14:30:17 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | SELL | 0 | 6¢ | $0 | 0xe108e0… |
| 07-08 14:30:14 | Canine-Biplane 0x4435…786f | Yes | SELL | 30 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xb4a513… |
| 07-08 14:30:14 | Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse 0xe457…5ab3 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x58c75f… |
| 07-08 14:30:14 | Sardonic-Cue 0x8a7b…782f | No | SELL | 20 | 96¢ | $19 | 0x58c75f… |
| 07-08 14:30:14 | Sardonic-Cue 0x8a7b…782f | No | SELL | 30 | 96¢ | $29 | 0xb4a513… |
| 07-08 14:30:08 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | SELL | 28 | 95¢ | $26 | 0x667455… |
| 07-08 14:30:08 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | BUY | 21 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x667455… |
| 07-08 14:30:08 | Late-Stepbrother 0x0aae…251c | No | SELL | 91 | 95¢ | $86 | 0x667455… |
| 07-08 14:30:08 | Canine-Biplane 0x4435…786f | Yes | BUY | 30 | 5¢ | $2 | 0x667455… |
| 07-08 14:30:08 | Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse 0xe457…5ab3 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x667455… |
| 07-08 14:30:08 | Disastrous-Bend 0xe000…cbb1 | Yes | SELL | 190 | 5¢ | $9 | 0x667455… |
| 07-08 11:57:01 | Late-Stepbrother 0x0aae…251c | No | SELL | 25 | 95¢ | $24 | 0x41b73f… |
| 07-08 11:57:01 | (anonymous) 0x601f…76ad | Yes | SELL | 25 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x41b73f… |
| 07-08 06:47:53 | Late-Stepbrother 0x0aae…251c | No | SELL | 9 | 95¢ | $9 | 0xed328d… |
| 07-08 06:47:53 | Weepy-Infusion 0x510b…da8d | Yes | SELL | 9 | 5¢ | $0 | 0xed328d… |
| 07-08 06:42:13 | Weepy-Infusion 0x510b…da8d | Yes | SELL | 57 | 5¢ | $3 | 0x9aa0cd… |
| 07-08 06:42:13 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 45 | 95¢ | $43 | 0x9aa0cd… |
| 07-08 06:42:13 | Late-Stepbrother 0x0aae…251c | No | SELL | 12 | 95¢ | $11 | 0x9aa0cd… |
| 07-08 06:00:49 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | BUY | 21 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x829790… |
| 07-08 06:00:49 | Weepy-Infusion 0x510b…da8d | Yes | SELL | 21 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x829790… |
| 07-08 03:05:32 | (anonymous) 0x601f…76ad | Yes | BUY | 14 | 6¢ | $1 | 0xc7a906… |
| 07-08 03:05:32 | Sardonic-Cue 0x8a7b…782f | No | BUY | 14 | 94¢ | $13 | 0xc7a906… |
| 07-08 03:03:01 | (anonymous) 0xae7d…058f | No | SELL | 49 | 93¢ | $45 | 0xfcb2b6… |
| 07-08 03:03:01 | Sardonic-Cue 0x8a7b…782f | No | BUY | 152 | 93¢ | $142 | 0xfcb2b6… |
| 07-08 03:03:01 | (anonymous) 0x601f…76ad | Yes | BUY | 12 | 7¢ | $1 | 0xfcb2b6… |
| 07-08 03:03:01 | Flamboyant-Porch 0xda20…cb8d | No | SELL | 50 | 93¢ | $46 | 0xfcb2b6… |
| 07-08 03:03:01 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | SELL | 42 | 93¢ | $39 | 0xfcb2b6… |
| 07-08 02:57:59 | (anonymous) 0xae7d…058f | No | SELL | 1 | 93¢ | $1 | 0x40e131… |
| 07-08 02:57:59 | (anonymous) 0x474a…c816 | No | BUY | 1 | 93¢ | $1 | 0x40e131… |
| 07-08 02:57:56 | (anonymous) 0xcb58…ccd0 | No | SELL | 30 | 90¢ | $27 | 0x02434a… |
| 07-08 02:57:56 | Sardonic-Cue 0x8a7b…782f | No | BUY | 30 | 90¢ | $27 | 0x02434a… |
| 07-08 02:57:53 | Smart-Cork 0x8494…814a | No | SELL | 50 | 93¢ | $46 | 0x3e5f4e… |
| 07-08 02:57:53 | Weepy-Infusion 0x510b…da8d | No | BUY | 50 | 93¢ | $46 | 0x3e5f4e… |
| 07-08 02:57:22 | Mealy-Elbow 0x2a20…89d2 | No | SELL | 30 | 91¢ | $27 | 0x384557… |
| 07-08 02:57:22 | Sardonic-Cue 0x8a7b…782f | No | BUY | 13 | 90¢ | $11 | 0x384557… |
| 07-08 02:57:22 | Kind-Senator 0x4b91…982d | Yes | SELL | 17 | 9¢ | $2 | 0x384557… |
| 07-08 02:56:55 | Kind-Senator 0x4b91…982d | Yes | SELL | 80 | 9¢ | $7 | 0x4c8503… |
| 07-08 02:56:55 | Reckless-Bracket 0x9eda…6e19 | No | SELL | 80 | 91¢ | $73 | 0x4c8503… |
| 07-08 02:56:32 | Sardonic-Cue 0x8a7b…782f | No | BUY | 1 | 91¢ | $1 | 0x46b3f9… |
| 07-08 02:56:32 | Unlucky-Comparison 0xd883…4fd7 | No | BUY | 20 | 91¢ | $18 | 0x46b3f9… |
| 07-08 02:56:32 | Kind-Senator 0x4b91…982d | Yes | SELL | 3 | 9¢ | $0 | 0x46b3f9… |
| 07-08 02:56:32 | (anonymous) 0xc8a2…c9b6 | No | SELL | 50 | 92¢ | $46 | 0x46b3f9… |
| 07-08 02:56:32 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 26 | 8¢ | $2 | 0x46b3f9… |
| 07-08 02:56:07 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 26 | 6¢ | $2 | 0xece00a… |
| 07-08 02:56:07 | Weepy-Infusion 0x510b…da8d | No | BUY | 26 | 94¢ | $24 | 0xece00a… |
| 07-08 02:55:58 | Late-Stepbrother 0x0aae…251c | No | SELL | 402 | 92¢ | $371 | 0x67d7e5… |
| 07-08 02:55:58 | (anonymous) 0xae7d…058f | No | BUY | 50 | 92¢ | $46 | 0x67d7e5… |
| 07-08 02:55:58 | Flamboyant-Porch 0xda20…cb8d | No | BUY | 50 | 92¢ | $46 | 0x67d7e5… |
| 07-08 02:55:58 | Reckless-Bracket 0x9eda…6e19 | No | BUY | 80 | 92¢ | $74 | 0x67d7e5… |
| 07-08 02:55:58 | Unlucky-Comparison 0xd883…4fd7 | No | BUY | 20 | 92¢ | $18 | 0x67d7e5… |
| 07-08 02:55:58 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | SELL | 22 | 7¢ | $2 | 0x67d7e5… |
| 07-08 02:55:58 | (anonymous) 0xc8a2…c9b6 | No | BUY | 50 | 92¢ | $46 | 0x67d7e5… |
| 07-08 02:55:58 | Smart-Cork 0x8494…814a | No | BUY | 50 | 92¢ | $46 | 0x67d7e5… |
| 07-08 02:55:58 | Mealy-Elbow 0x2a20…89d2 | No | BUY | 30 | 92¢ | $28 | 0x67d7e5… |
| 07-08 02:55:58 | (anonymous) 0xcb58…ccd0 | No | BUY | 30 | 92¢ | $28 | 0x67d7e5… |
| 07-08 02:51:35 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | No | SELL | 10 | 93¢ | $10 | 0x0facbd… |
| 07-08 02:51:35 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | SELL | 10 | 7¢ | $1 | 0x0facbd… |
| 07-08 02:51:34 | Purple-Yarn 0x7c9e…db3d | Yes | SELL | 75 | 6¢ | $4 | 0x597946… |
| 07-08 02:51:34 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | BUY | 45 | 94¢ | $42 | 0x597946… |
| 07-08 02:51:34 | Disastrous-Bend 0xe000…cbb1 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x597946… |
| 07-08 02:51:34 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | No | SELL | 140 | 94¢ | $131 | 0x597946… |
| 07-08 02:51:19 | Fruitful-Heroine 0x1e98…6345 | Yes | SELL | 82 | 5¢ | $4 | 0x45429f… |
| 07-08 02:51:19 | Disastrous-Bend 0xe000…cbb1 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x45429f… |
| 07-08 02:51:19 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | BUY | 125 | 95¢ | $119 | 0x45429f… |
| 07-08 02:51:19 | (anonymous) 0x9de6…e7f0 | No | BUY | 5 | 95¢ | $5 | 0x45429f… |
| 07-08 02:51:19 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | No | BUY | 150 | 95¢ | $142 | 0x45429f… |
| 07-08 02:51:19 | (anonymous) 0xfb99…3587 | No | BUY | 53 | 95¢ | $50 | 0x45429f… |
| 07-08 02:51:19 | (anonymous) 0xb9a6…a9a1 | No | BUY | 17 | 95¢ | $16 | 0x45429f… |
| 07-08 02:51:19 | (anonymous) 0xffbf…0824 | No | BUY | 62 | 95¢ | $59 | 0x45429f… |
| 07-08 02:51:19 | (anonymous) 0x3aa9…ae2c | No | BUY | 50 | 95¢ | $48 | 0x45429f… |
| 07-08 02:51:19 | (anonymous) 0xeb63…3ba1 | No | BUY | 57 | 95¢ | $54 | 0x45429f… |
| 07-08 02:51:19 | Late-Stepbrother 0x0aae…251c | No | SELL | 768 | 95¢ | $730 | 0x45429f… |
| 07-08 02:51:19 | Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | Yes | SELL | 13 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x45429f… |
| 07-08 02:51:19 | (anonymous) 0x8439…8dae | No | BUY | 59 | 95¢ | $56 | 0x45429f… |
| 07-08 02:51:19 | Forthright-Dash 0x5309…05ae | No | BUY | 56 | 95¢ | $53 | 0x45429f… |
| 07-07 11:34:10 | (anonymous) 0xb9a6…a9a1 | No | BUY | 36 | 95¢ | $34 | 0x7ef5db… |