Realized P&L
+$16.2K
Unrealized P&L
+$8.50K
Hit rate
90.4%
Resolved
557
Trades
24,666
lifetime
Volume
$4.14M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$168
Open exposure
$183.0K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-30 01:54
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 101 days
Categories
Other
58% 77% +$7,007
Politics
33% 85% +$5,497
Sports
5% 60% +$3,182
Crypto
3% 91% +$376
Tech
2% 100% +$108
Pop-Culture
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
85 active days in 12wk • peak 247 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No +15,197 $13,651 97¢ $14.8K +$1,129 10-29 17:37
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? No -14,469 -$13,858 99¢ $-14325 -$467 05-20 17:34
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026? No +15,159 $14,276 93¢ $14.1K -$216 10-28 16:26
New pandemic in 2026? No +12,729 $12,029 97¢ $12.3K +$273 10-28 10:51
Iran Nuke before 2027? No +11,717 $11,160 95¢ $11.1K -$34 10-30 00:09
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No +11,420 $10,406 97¢ $11.1K +$694 10-29 23:17
US recession by end of 2026? No +11,399 $7,167 93¢ $10.6K +$3,433 10-28 23:22
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No +8,362 $8,386 94¢ $7.8K -$568 10-29 13:02
OpenAI IPO before 2027? No +8,016 $7,755 97¢ $7.8K +$1 10-26 01:19
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? No -6,698 -$6,321 98¢ $-6594 -$273 06-08 19:48
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? No +6,543 $5,793 95¢ $6.2K +$432 10-30 00:29
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No +5,386 $4,269 97¢ $5.2K +$977 10-28 19:48
will anthropics valuation hit low 800b by december 31 957 743 No +5,016 $4,778 95¢ $4.8K -$1 10-22 15:41
Modi out by December 31, 2026? No +4,942 $4,763 97¢ $4.8K +$11 10-29 17:49
US military draft authorized in 2026? No -4,868 -$4,579 97¢ $-4720 -$141 10-20 18:42
Will Hillary Clinton be arrested before 2027? No — +4,186 $4,033 95¢ $4.0K -$42 10-29 17:54
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? Yes +6,038 $4,843 66¢ $4.0K -$888 10-27 20:11
JD Vance out as VP by December 31? No +3,948 $3,614 96¢ $3.8K +$168 10-29 17:48
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026? No +3,762 $3,256 96¢ $3.6K +$375 10-25 23:34
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027? No +3,594 $3,494 98¢ $3.5K +$20 10-29 17:39
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31? No +3,564 $3,366 98¢ $3.5K +$117 10-28 17:19
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No +3,156 $2,620 94¢ $3.0K +$330 10-16 10:22
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes +2,994 $2,818 98¢ $2.9K +$104 10-30 00:27
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No +2,900 $2,404 97¢ $2.8K +$420 10-29 17:42
Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026? No -3,216 -$2,323 86¢ $-2766 -$442 09-26 14:52
Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027? No +2,849 $2,335 97¢ $2.8K +$417 10-28 19:54
Trump out as President before 2027? No -2,749 -$3,512 96¢ $-2642 +$870 10-22 09:02
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes -6,360 -$2,491 40¢ $-2538 -$46 08-14 06:39
Will Iran legalize gay marriage? No -2,585 -$2,535 98¢ $-2532 +$4 10-20 16:54
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Yes -25,924 -$4,309 10¢ $-2463 +$1,846 06-16 07:25