Realized P&L
+$41
Unrealized P&L
+$1.42K
Hit rate
98.4%
Resolved
6
Trades
14,419
lifetime
Volume
$2.57M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$179
Open exposure
$136.5K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-21 11:59
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 4 days
Categories
Other
58%
Politics
33% 100% +$23
Sports
6% 40% +$18
Crypto
3%
Tech
1%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
82 active days in 12wk • peak 1181 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Trump out as President before 2027? No +29,120 $26,357 92¢ $26.9K +$578 07-16 05:46
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No +26,233 $25,374 96¢ $25.3K $-72 07-20 15:44
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No +21,351 $19,960 95¢ $20.3K +$334 07-19 21:49
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No -15,990 $-14,887 92¢ $-14631 +$256 07-18 13:17
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No -10,994 $-10,218 96¢ $-10538 $-320 07-17 18:59
US military draft authorized in 2026? No -5,844 $-5,503 95¢ $-5572 $-70 06-21 15:01
Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027? No -4,715 $-4,436 96¢ $-4503 $-68 07-20 02:32
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? No -4,287 $-4,099 97¢ $-4156 $-57 06-08 19:48
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Yes -17,709 $-2,903 12¢ $-2037 +$867 06-16 07:25
Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027? No +2,117 $1,851 94¢ $2.0K +$149 07-20 00:20
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.5% or lower before 2027? No +2,029 $1,939 98¢ $2.0K +$57 07-14 16:49
Modi out by December 31, 2026? No -2,092 $-1,966 93¢ $-1942 +$23 07-18 10:13
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? No +1,903 $1,789 96¢ $1.8K +$43 07-14 13:25
Will Alaska Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31? No -1,465 $-1,434 98¢ $-1440 $-7 07-12 19:07
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? No -1,265 $-1,232 98¢ $-1234 $-2 06-30 16:32
Any country withdraws from EU before 2027? No -1,155 $-1,085 97¢ $-1118 $-33 06-25 14:16
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? No +1,176 $1,106 92¢ $1.1K $-22 07-15 10:41
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? No +1,079 $937 86¢ $928 $-9 07-19 01:38
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027? No -1,162 $-947 79¢ $-915 +$33 06-15 16:32
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.75% or higher before 2027? No -963 $-917 95¢ $-914 +$3 07-14 16:46
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? No -924 $-875 96¢ $-889 $-14 05-31 10:31
Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027? No +846 $754 94¢ $799 +$45 07-14 13:14
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes +2,397 $1,203 33¢ $791 $-412 06-30 18:00
Tom Lee charged by December 31? No -820 $-779 94¢ $-775 +$4 07-19 05:55
Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31? No -796 $-767 97¢ $-774 $-7 06-27 17:27
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? No -844 $-815 86¢ $-730 +$84 06-11 18:58
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No +785 $657 86¢ $671 +$14 07-19 23:18
Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027? No +639 $560 92¢ $588 +$28 07-20 18:05
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026? No +602 $591 96¢ $575 $-16 07-06 17:50
Hantavirus vaccine in 2026? No +596 $552 94¢ $563 +$11 07-21 05:40