Realized P&L
+$41
Unrealized P&L
+$2.02K
Hit rate
98.4%
Resolved
6
Trades
13,624
lifetime
Volume
$2.30M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$169
Open exposure
$125.6K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-30 18:23
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 4 days
Categories
Other
59%
—
—
Politics
31%
100%
+$23
Sports
6%
40%
+$18
Crypto
3%
—
—
Tech
1%
—
—
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
82 active days in 12wk
• peak 1181 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | -15,244 | $-14,235 | 86¢ | $-13186 | +$1,049 | 06-30 17:54 | |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | No | +10,986 | $10,817 | 100¢ | $11.0K | +$158 | 06-23 19:55 | |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | -10,559 | $-9,976 | 95¢ | $-10005 | $-28 | 06-25 15:38 | |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? | No | +9,010 | $8,901 | 100¢ | $9.0K | +$73 | 06-30 16:59 | |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? | No | -8,025 | $-7,996 | 100¢ | $-8017 | $-21 | 06-23 17:35 | |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | +8,508 | $7,836 | 94¢ | $8.0K | +$131 | 06-11 23:50 | |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? | No | +6,470 | $6,449 | 100¢ | $6.5K | +$14 | 06-29 20:09 | |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? | No | -6,299 | $-6,244 | 100¢ | $-6293 | $-49 | 06-07 15:57 | |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | +6,384 | $5,396 | 92¢ | $5.8K | +$445 | 06-30 15:25 | |
| US military draft authorized in 2026? | No | -5,844 | $-5,503 | 92¢ | $-5374 | +$129 | 06-21 15:01 | |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? | No | -4,991 | $-4,886 | 100¢ | $-4966 | $-81 | 06-10 18:11 | |
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? | No | -4,287 | $-4,099 | 95¢ | $-4088 | +$12 | 06-08 19:48 | |
| Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027? | No | +4,385 | $4,020 | 92¢ | $4.1K | +$37 | 06-29 08:05 | |
| Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027? | No | -3,711 | $-3,476 | 94¢ | $-3469 | +$7 | 06-29 04:36 | |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? | No | -3,190 | $-3,167 | 100¢ | $-3187 | $-20 | 06-10 00:26 | |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? | No | -2,653 | $-2,642 | 100¢ | $-2650 | $-8 | 06-21 13:48 | |
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | Yes | -17,709 | $-2,903 | 15¢ | $-2568 | +$335 | 06-16 07:25 | |
| Modi out by December 31, 2026? | No | -2,134 | $-2,005 | 93¢ | $-1987 | +$18 | 06-21 21:07 | |
| Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? | No | +1,947 | $1,937 | 100¢ | $1.9K | +$8 | 06-29 17:50 | |
| Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? | No | -1,866 | $-1,860 | 100¢ | $-1860 | $-1 | 06-26 17:52 | |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? | No | -1,779 | $-1,765 | 100¢ | $-1777 | $-12 | 06-01 12:11 | |
| Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027? | No | +1,711 | $1,593 | 94¢ | $1.6K | +$6 | 06-27 04:18 | |
| Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30? | No | +1,279 | $1,264 | 99¢ | $1.3K | +$5 | 06-16 23:14 | |
| Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? | No | -1,265 | $-1,232 | 98¢ | $-1240 | $-8 | 06-30 16:32 | |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | No | +1,107 | $1,080 | 100¢ | $1.1K | +$26 | 06-14 18:06 | |
| Any country withdraws from EU before 2027? | No | -1,155 | $-1,085 | 94¢ | $-1091 | $-6 | 06-25 14:16 | |
| Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027? | Yes | +2,397 | $1,203 | 42¢ | $1.0K | $-196 | 06-30 18:00 | |
| Xi Jinping out by June 30? | No | -929 | $-923 | 100¢ | $-928 | $-5 | 06-06 21:14 | |
| Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? | No | -924 | $-875 | 95¢ | $-879 | $-4 | 05-31 10:31 | |
| Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? | No | -878 | $-879 | 100¢ | $-877 | +$2 | 06-12 02:47 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| netanyahu out by march 31 854 | 108 | $276.9K | 173,833 | 109,801 | +64,032 | open | — | 04-02 23:36 |
| trump out as president by march 31 | 152 | $122.6K | 63,498 | 64,169 | -671 | open | — | 03-15 15:22 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | 291 | $116.3K | 63,977 | 53,744 | +10,233 | open | — | 04-29 01:11 |
| will israel nuke iran by january 31 | 108 | $97.5K | 55,600 | 42,369 | +13,231 | open | — | 01-31 20:49 |
| Trump out as President by April 30? | 73 | $75.3K | 41,038 | 35,098 | +5,941 | open | — | 04-29 17:34 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | 121 | $68.4K | 32,359 | 43,275 | -10,916 | open | — | 06-30 15:25 |
| will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026 | 120 | $45.2K | 22,665 | 23,503 | -838 | open | — | 03-14 13:07 |
| ilhan omar town hall attack staged | 124 | $44.7K | 30,850 | 14,738 | +16,112 | open | — | 02-26 19:45 |
| will the iranian regime fall by march 31 | 169 | $38.5K | 21,830 | 21,995 | -165 | open | — | 03-30 23:45 |
| Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | 502 | $36.5K | 21,221 | 21,515 | -294 | open | — | 04-28 09:04 |
| us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165 | 203 | $33.7K | 31,623 | 31,005 | +618 | open | — | 01-08 18:48 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | 24 | $30.0K | 8,925 | 24,169 | -15,244 | open | — | 06-30 17:54 |
| will silver si hit low 40 by end of february 776 791 516 257 572 135 547 179 | 6 | $26.4K | 8,073 | 18,353 | -10,279 | open | — | 02-27 19:44 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | 1,195 | $26.2K | 12,637 | 15,292 | -2,655 | open | — | 06-25 15:38 |
| will solana reach 130 in february 2026 | 27 | $25.2K | 15,775 | 9,445 | +6,330 | open | — | 02-27 22:12 |
| will the iranian regime fall by january 31 | 53 | $25.1K | 15,513 | 11,877 | +3,636 | open | — | 01-31 19:20 |
| will tsla reach 503 in february | 10 | $24.5K | 12,267 | 12,250 | +17 | open | — | 02-27 21:01 |
| will tsla reach 533 in february | 16 | $23.8K | 11,930 | 11,930 | +0 | open | — | 02-27 20:05 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | 233 | $21.6K | 25,313 | 23,714 | +1,599 | open | — | 01-15 00:13 |
| Netanyahu out by April 30? | 94 | $21.5K | 14,860 | 7,106 | +7,754 | open | — | 04-29 00:56 |
| will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926 | 162 | $20.5K | 19,353 | 19,353 | +0 | open | — | 03-25 21:56 |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30? | 80 | $20.1K | 17,432 | 3,824 | +13,608 | open | — | 04-29 17:34 |
| will gold gc hit high 6000 by end of february 957 635 788 121 773 745 586 | 15 | $19.6K | 9,814 | 9,814 | +0 | open | — | 02-27 20:54 |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | 21 | $19.1K | 10,278 | 9,771 | +507 | open | — | 06-15 00:10 |
| will the us invade venezuela by january 31 2026 | 84 | $19.1K | 18,924 | 8,001 | +10,924 | open | — | 01-27 00:58 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31 | 230 | $18.5K | 15,093 | 14,355 | +738 | open | — | 01-15 00:13 |
| Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? | 43 | $18.0K | 9,342 | 8,938 | +404 | open | — | 04-16 20:13 |
| will silver si hit high 140 by end of february 384 774 953 735 356 | 8 | $17.4K | 11,369 | 6,141 | +5,227 | open | — | 02-26 16:13 |
| us recognizes machado as leader of venezuela by january 31 | 289 | $17.2K | 14,150 | 3,241 | +10,909 | open | — | 01-31 19:56 |
| Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by January 31, 2026? | 30 | $15.0K | 14,170 | 1,076 | +13,094 | open | — | 01-31 18:16 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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