Realized P&L
+$41
Unrealized P&L
+$351
Hit rate
98.4%
Resolved
6
Trades
11,316
lifetime
Volume
$2.06M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$182
Open exposure
$80.8K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 06-10 00:26
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 4 days
Categories
Other
60%
—
—
Politics
29%
100%
+$23
Sports
7%
40%
+$18
Crypto
3%
—
—
Tech
1%
—
—
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
82 active days in 12wk
• peak 280 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | +9,436 | $8,432 | 90¢ | $8.4K | +$13 | 06-07 07:05 | |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | No | +7,949 | $7,811 | 99¢ | $7.9K | +$50 | 06-09 20:21 | |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | +8,306 | $7,650 | 92¢ | $7.6K | $-0 | 06-09 19:03 | |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? | No | -6,299 | $-6,244 | 99¢ | $-6264 | $-21 | 06-07 15:57 | |
| Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027? | No | +5,613 | $5,169 | 92¢ | $5.2K | +$23 | 06-09 19:42 | |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? | No | +5,016 | $4,917 | 99¢ | $5.0K | +$50 | 06-09 00:36 | |
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? | No | -4,287 | $-4,099 | 95¢ | $-4084 | +$16 | 06-08 19:48 | |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? | No | -4,037 | $-3,950 | 97¢ | $-3930 | +$20 | 06-06 17:29 | |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | +3,925 | $3,670 | 93¢ | $3.6K | $-26 | 06-06 10:43 | |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | No | +3,415 | $3,359 | 99¢ | $3.4K | +$31 | 06-07 01:11 | |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | No | +3,571 | $3,332 | 95¢ | $3.4K | +$45 | 06-04 00:35 | |
| Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June? | No | -3,190 | $-3,167 | 99¢ | $-3168 | $-1 | 06-10 00:26 | |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | No | +2,020 | $1,983 | 98¢ | $2.0K | +$6 | 06-09 19:32 | |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | +2,000 | $1,820 | 92¢ | $1.8K | +$10 | 06-06 08:32 | |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? | No | -1,779 | $-1,765 | 100¢ | $-1776 | $-11 | 06-01 12:11 | |
| Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027? | No | -1,693 | $-1,578 | 92¢ | $-1566 | +$12 | 06-06 21:01 | |
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | Yes | -8,740 | $-1,378 | 16¢ | $-1355 | +$24 | 06-08 08:55 | |
| Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? | No | -1,166 | $-1,161 | 99¢ | $-1159 | +$2 | 06-09 11:35 | |
| Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027? | No | -1,141 | $-929 | 82¢ | $-938 | $-9 | 06-08 06:10 | |
| Xi Jinping out by June 30? | No | -929 | $-923 | 99¢ | $-923 | $-0 | 06-06 21:14 | |
| Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? | No | -1,031 | $-987 | 89¢ | $-915 | +$72 | 06-05 01:41 | |
| Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? | No | -924 | $-875 | 96¢ | $-882 | $-7 | 05-31 10:31 | |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? | No | -877 | $-839 | 93¢ | $-812 | +$27 | 06-05 17:40 | |
| Any country withdraws from EU before 2027? | No | -855 | $-804 | 94¢ | $-799 | +$4 | 06-08 17:51 | |
| Hantavirus vaccine in 2026? | No | +817 | $766 | 94¢ | $768 | +$2 | 06-09 16:37 | |
| Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31? | No | -711 | $-685 | 94¢ | $-671 | +$14 | 06-07 19:26 | |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? | No | +668 | $651 | 98¢ | $651 | +$0 | 06-07 18:32 | |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? | No | -634 | $-632 | 100¢ | $-633 | $-1 | 06-05 17:39 | |
| Tom Lee charged by December 31? | No | -667 | $-634 | 94¢ | $-630 | +$3 | 06-08 07:42 | |
| Will Barack Obama be arrested before 2027? | No | +564 | $539 | 96¢ | $542 | +$4 | 06-05 20:28 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| netanyahu out by march 31 854 | 108 | $276.9K | 173,833 | 109,801 | +64,032 | open | — | 04-02 23:36 |
| trump out as president by march 31 | 152 | $122.6K | 63,498 | 64,169 | -671 | open | — | 03-15 15:22 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | 291 | $116.3K | 63,977 | 53,744 | +10,233 | open | — | 04-29 01:11 |
| will israel nuke iran by january 31 | 108 | $97.5K | 55,600 | 42,369 | +13,231 | open | — | 01-31 20:49 |
| Trump out as President by April 30? | 73 | $75.3K | 41,038 | 35,098 | +5,941 | open | — | 04-29 17:34 |
| will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026 | 120 | $45.2K | 22,665 | 23,503 | -838 | open | — | 03-14 13:07 |
| ilhan omar town hall attack staged | 124 | $44.7K | 30,850 | 14,738 | +16,112 | open | — | 02-26 19:45 |
| will the iranian regime fall by march 31 | 169 | $38.5K | 21,830 | 21,995 | -165 | open | — | 03-30 23:45 |
| Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | 502 | $36.5K | 21,221 | 21,515 | -294 | open | — | 04-28 09:04 |
| us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165 | 203 | $33.7K | 31,623 | 31,005 | +618 | open | — | 01-08 18:48 |
| will silver si hit low 40 by end of february 776 791 516 257 572 135 547 179 | 6 | $26.4K | 8,073 | 18,353 | -10,279 | open | — | 02-27 19:44 |
| will solana reach 130 in february 2026 | 27 | $25.2K | 15,775 | 9,445 | +6,330 | open | — | 02-27 22:12 |
| will the iranian regime fall by january 31 | 53 | $25.1K | 15,513 | 11,877 | +3,636 | open | — | 01-31 19:20 |
| will tsla reach 503 in february | 10 | $24.5K | 12,267 | 12,250 | +17 | open | — | 02-27 21:01 |
| will tsla reach 533 in february | 16 | $23.8K | 11,930 | 11,930 | +0 | open | — | 02-27 20:05 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | 233 | $21.6K | 25,313 | 23,714 | +1,599 | open | — | 01-15 00:13 |
| Netanyahu out by April 30? | 94 | $21.5K | 14,860 | 7,106 | +7,754 | open | — | 04-29 00:56 |
| will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926 | 162 | $20.5K | 19,353 | 19,353 | +0 | open | — | 03-25 21:56 |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30? | 80 | $20.1K | 17,432 | 3,824 | +13,608 | open | — | 04-29 17:34 |
| will gold gc hit high 6000 by end of february 957 635 788 121 773 745 586 | 15 | $19.6K | 9,814 | 9,814 | +0 | open | — | 02-27 20:54 |
| will the us invade venezuela by january 31 2026 | 84 | $19.1K | 18,924 | 8,001 | +10,924 | open | — | 01-27 00:58 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31 | 230 | $18.5K | 15,093 | 14,355 | +738 | open | — | 01-15 00:13 |
| Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? | 43 | $18.0K | 9,342 | 8,938 | +404 | open | — | 04-16 20:13 |
| will silver si hit high 140 by end of february 384 774 953 735 356 | 8 | $17.4K | 11,369 | 6,141 | +5,227 | open | — | 02-26 16:13 |
| us recognizes machado as leader of venezuela by january 31 | 289 | $17.2K | 14,150 | 3,241 | +10,909 | open | — | 01-31 19:56 |
| Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by January 31, 2026? | 30 | $15.0K | 14,170 | 1,076 | +13,094 | open | — | 01-31 18:16 |
| will crude oil cl hit high 180 by end of march 692 | 128 | $14.9K | 12,115 | 12,115 | +0 | open | — | 03-27 05:02 |
| will bitcoin dip to 35k in february 2026 579 178 738 | 2 | $14.9K | 7,496 | 7,496 | +0 | open | — | 02-25 15:07 |
| US strike on Cuba by January 31? | 73 | $13.7K | 11,177 | 5,201 | +5,977 | open | — | 01-30 19:33 |
| russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026 | 31 | $13.4K | 6,963 | 6,963 | +0 | open | — | 01-08 23:33 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | 351 | $29.1K | 16,424 | 06-09 23:12 |
| Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | 335 | $1.65M | 30,001 | 06-10 01:34 |
| Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | 315 | $28.5K | 6,033 | 06-10 00:21 |
| Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | 292 | $313.8K | 3,130 | 06-09 03:33 |
| Straight-Wrinkle 0x8765…ed81 | 269 | $10.1K | 3,923 | 03-27 21:25 |
| Faraway-Seaside 0xf0b0…8cab | 247 | $491.3K | 40,589 | 06-01 05:11 |
| (anonymous) 0xca8f…d963 | 245 | $79.9K | 34,525 | 04-26 14:49 |
| (anonymous) 0xd6ee…37a2 | 220 | $253.2K | 21,402 | 03-28 20:45 |