Realized P&L
+$41
Unrealized P&L
+$1.42K
Hit rate
98.4%
Resolved
6
Trades
14,425
lifetime
Volume
$2.57M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$179
Open exposure
$136.7K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-21 17:58
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 4 days
Categories
Other
58%
—
—
Politics
33%
100%
+$23
Sports
6%
40%
+$18
Crypto
3%
—
—
Tech
1%
—
—
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
82 active days in 12wk
• peak 1181 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump out as President before 2027? | No | +29,120 | $26,357 | 92¢ | $26.9K | +$578 | 07-16 05:46 | |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | No | +26,233 | $25,374 | 96¢ | $25.3K | $-72 | 07-20 15:44 | |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | No | +21,351 | $19,960 | 95¢ | $20.3K | +$334 | 07-19 21:49 | |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | No | -15,990 | $-14,887 | 92¢ | $-14631 | +$256 | 07-18 13:17 | |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | No | -10,994 | $-10,218 | 96¢ | $-10538 | $-320 | 07-17 18:59 | |
| US military draft authorized in 2026? | No | -5,844 | $-5,503 | 95¢ | $-5572 | $-70 | 06-21 15:01 | |
| Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027? | No | -4,715 | $-4,436 | 96¢ | $-4503 | $-68 | 07-20 02:32 | |
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? | No | -4,287 | $-4,099 | 97¢ | $-4156 | $-57 | 06-08 19:48 | |
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | Yes | -17,709 | $-2,903 | 12¢ | $-2037 | +$867 | 06-16 07:25 | |
| Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027? | No | +2,117 | $1,851 | 94¢ | $2.0K | +$149 | 07-20 00:20 | |
| Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.5% or lower before 2027? | No | +2,029 | $1,939 | 98¢ | $2.0K | +$57 | 07-14 16:49 | |
| Modi out by December 31, 2026? | No | -2,092 | $-1,966 | 91¢ | $-1913 | +$53 | 07-18 10:13 | |
| Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? | No | +1,903 | $1,789 | 96¢ | $1.8K | +$43 | 07-14 13:25 | |
| Will Alaska Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31? | No | -1,465 | $-1,434 | 98¢ | $-1440 | $-7 | 07-12 19:07 | |
| Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? | No | -1,265 | $-1,232 | 97¢ | $-1233 | $-1 | 06-30 16:32 | |
| Any country withdraws from EU before 2027? | No | -1,155 | $-1,085 | 97¢ | $-1116 | $-30 | 06-25 14:16 | |
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? | No | +1,176 | $1,106 | 91¢ | $1.1K | $-34 | 07-15 10:41 | |
| Tom Lee charged by December 31? | No | -1,056 | $-1,003 | 94¢ | $-997 | +$5 | 07-21 17:58 | |
| Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027? | No | -1,162 | $-947 | 79¢ | $-915 | +$33 | 06-15 16:32 | |
| Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.75% or higher before 2027? | No | -963 | $-917 | 95¢ | $-914 | +$3 | 07-14 16:46 | |
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? | No | +1,079 | $937 | 84¢ | $907 | $-30 | 07-19 01:38 | |
| Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? | No | -924 | $-875 | 96¢ | $-889 | $-14 | 05-31 10:31 | |
| Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027? | No | +846 | $754 | 94¢ | $799 | +$45 | 07-14 13:14 | |
| Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027? | Yes | +2,397 | $1,203 | 33¢ | $791 | $-412 | 06-30 18:00 | |
| Adam Back confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31? | No | -796 | $-767 | 97¢ | $-774 | $-7 | 06-27 17:27 | |
| Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures? | No | -844 | $-815 | 87¢ | $-731 | +$84 | 06-11 18:58 | |
| Will GameStop acquire eBay? | No | +785 | $657 | 86¢ | $671 | +$14 | 07-19 23:18 | |
| Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027? | No | +639 | $560 | 92¢ | $588 | +$28 | 07-20 18:05 | |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026? | No | +602 | $591 | 96¢ | $575 | $-16 | 07-06 17:50 | |
| Hantavirus vaccine in 2026? | No | +596 | $552 | 94¢ | $563 | +$11 | 07-21 05:40 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| netanyahu out by march 31 854 | 108 | $276.9K | 173,833 | 109,801 | +64,032 | open | — | 04-02 23:36 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | 170 | $130.7K | 79,898 | 63,079 | +16,820 | open | — | 07-16 05:46 |
| trump out as president by march 31 | 152 | $122.6K | 63,498 | 64,169 | -671 | open | — | 03-15 15:22 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | 291 | $116.3K | 63,977 | 53,744 | +10,233 | open | — | 04-29 01:11 |
| will israel nuke iran by january 31 | 108 | $97.5K | 55,600 | 42,369 | +13,231 | open | — | 01-31 20:49 |
| Trump out as President by April 30? | 73 | $75.3K | 41,038 | 35,098 | +5,941 | open | — | 04-29 17:34 |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | 28 | $61.1K | 44,812 | 18,579 | +26,233 | open | — | 07-20 15:44 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | 1,296 | $57.0K | 28,594 | 31,482 | -2,888 | open | — | 07-17 18:59 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | 69 | $56.7K | 23,593 | 39,583 | -15,990 | open | — | 07-18 13:17 |
| will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026 | 120 | $45.2K | 22,665 | 23,503 | -838 | open | — | 03-14 13:07 |
| ilhan omar town hall attack staged | 124 | $44.7K | 30,850 | 14,738 | +16,112 | open | — | 02-26 19:45 |
| will the iranian regime fall by march 31 | 169 | $38.5K | 21,830 | 21,995 | -165 | open | — | 03-30 23:45 |
| Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? | 502 | $36.5K | 21,221 | 21,515 | -294 | open | — | 04-28 09:04 |
| us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165 | 203 | $33.7K | 31,623 | 31,005 | +618 | open | — | 01-08 18:48 |
| will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026 | 50 | $27.9K | 21,324 | 10,184 | +11,141 | open | — | 07-19 09:23 |
| will silver si hit low 40 by end of february 776 791 516 257 572 135 547 179 | 6 | $26.4K | 8,073 | 18,353 | -10,279 | open | — | 02-27 19:44 |
| will solana reach 130 in february 2026 | 27 | $25.2K | 15,775 | 9,445 | +6,330 | open | — | 02-27 22:12 |
| will the iranian regime fall by january 31 | 53 | $25.1K | 15,513 | 11,877 | +3,636 | open | — | 01-31 19:20 |
| will tsla reach 503 in february | 10 | $24.5K | 12,267 | 12,250 | +17 | open | — | 02-27 21:01 |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? | 22 | $24.0K | 22,330 | 3,292 | +19,038 | open | — | 07-19 21:49 |
| will tsla reach 533 in february | 16 | $23.8K | 11,930 | 11,930 | +0 | open | — | 02-27 20:05 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | 233 | $21.6K | 25,313 | 23,714 | +1,599 | open | — | 01-15 00:13 |
| Netanyahu out by April 30? | 94 | $21.5K | 14,860 | 7,106 | +7,754 | open | — | 04-29 00:56 |
| will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926 | 162 | $20.5K | 19,353 | 19,353 | +0 | open | — | 03-25 21:56 |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30? | 80 | $20.1K | 17,432 | 3,824 | +13,608 | open | — | 04-29 17:34 |
| jd vance out as vp by december 31 | 21 | $20.0K | 13,192 | 8,397 | +4,794 | open | — | 07-16 00:12 |
| will gold gc hit high 6000 by end of february 957 635 788 121 773 745 586 | 15 | $19.6K | 9,814 | 9,814 | +0 | open | — | 02-27 20:54 |
| will the us invade venezuela by january 31 2026 | 84 | $19.1K | 18,924 | 8,001 | +10,924 | open | — | 01-27 00:58 |
| Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027? | 85 | $19.0K | 11,983 | 8,482 | +3,501 | open | — | 07-20 00:20 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31 | 230 | $18.5K | 15,093 | 14,355 | +738 | open | — | 01-15 00:13 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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