Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?
open
Total volume
$14,663
$12 in 24h
Trades
694
Unique wallets
148
Liquidity
$18,942
Latest YES mid
2¢
Latest NO mid
98¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-28
last 08-02 19:53
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
+71.4¢
(top1%: 89% YES on $166
vs crowd: 17% YES on $6.5K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 19 | $235 | $1.6K | $1.4K |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 36 | $674 | $1.2K | $500 |
| 🐟 Fish | 25 | $140 | $250 | $110 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 68 | $69 | $2.4K | $2.3K |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 5 | $147 | $19 | +$128 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 8 | $57 | — | +$57 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 8 | $36 | $87 | $51 |
| Median | 17 | $16 | $505 | $489 |
| Below median | 21 | $43 | $259 | $216 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 6 | $27 | $19 | +$7 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 10 | $141 | $622 | $481 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 6 | $74 | $800 | $726 |
| unranked | 67 | $577 | $3.1K | $2.5K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ample-Instance 0x9d84…1344 | Yes | +7,172 | $145 | $145 | 20 | 08-02 19:53 |
| (anonymous) 0xf17d…6f86 | Yes | +814 | $15 | $15 | 6 | 07-27 11:51 |
| Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | +555 | $12 | $12 | 2 | 08-02 19:53 |
| (anonymous) 0x64e8…b506 | Yes | +491 | $11 | $11 | 3 | 07-31 14:57 |
| (anonymous) 0x44b7…2e99 | Yes | +455 | $10 | $10 | 2 | 07-30 16:11 |
| (anonymous) 0xa3de…111a | Yes | +433 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 07-27 20:04 |
| (anonymous) 0xaa06…1e0f | Yes | +398 | $11 | $11 | 3 | 07-30 16:11 |
| Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | +377 | $12 | $29 | 7 | 07-24 04:48 |
| (anonymous) 0xd990…749e | Yes | +367 | $4 | $4 | 1 | 07-24 04:48 |
| Weepy-Infusion 0x510b…da8d | Yes | +317 | $14 | $21 | 8 | 07-31 15:24 |
| Inconsequential-Platinum 0x5c0a…a2c3 | No | +265 | $251 | $724 | 3 | 06-17 20:54 |
| Inconsequential-Platinum 0x5c0a…a2c3 | Yes | +265 | $14 | $14 | 2 | 06-09 06:03 |
| Amused-Sight-Bend 0x6365…eba8 | Yes | +227 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 07-28 20:31 |
| (anonymous) 0x3669…b4bd | Yes | +163 | $4 | $4 | 2 | 07-29 14:05 |
| (anonymous) 0x5533…51ba | Yes | +127 | $1 | $12 | 4 | 08-02 07:44 |
| Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | No | +127 | $124 | $435 | 5 | 07-23 15:12 |
| (anonymous) 0xbada…d874 | Yes | +124 | $2 | $24 | 20 | 08-01 11:59 |
| Insubstantial-Parchment 0x025d…5b22 | Yes | +120 | $4 | $4 | 3 | 07-29 14:07 |
| (anonymous) 0xb275…6cb2 | Yes | +118 | $4 | $4 | 2 | 07-31 13:52 |
| (anonymous) 0x6553…35e2 | Yes | +115 | $3 | $3 | 9 | 07-29 14:05 |
| (anonymous) 0xd0de…2ef6 | Yes | +105 | $2 | $5 | 3 | 07-22 21:39 |
| Immaterial-Advantage 0xf85f…9800 | Yes | +96 | $4 | $6 | 2 | 07-31 10:48 |
| (anonymous) 0x2a7e…9dc6 | No | +66 | $63 | $129 | 2 | 08-01 07:03 |
| (anonymous) 0x2d41…8c3d | No | +58 | $57 | $57 | 2 | 07-30 16:11 |
| (anonymous) 0x9233…b022 | No | +56 | $55 | $55 | 1 | 07-21 09:33 |
| (anonymous) 0x77cd…5df0 | No | +55 | $54 | $54 | 1 | 07-21 11:24 |
| (anonymous) 0x61e9…d676 | No | +53 | $50 | $50 | 1 | 06-11 08:13 |
| (anonymous) 0x8883…df82 | No | +52 | $51 | $51 | 1 | 07-22 22:15 |
| (anonymous) 0xf399…6bf5 | No | +52 | $51 | $51 | 1 | 07-21 11:24 |
| (anonymous) 0x0adf…41ed | No | +52 | $51 | $51 | 1 | 07-22 22:14 |
| Left-Cobweb 0x5d55…7cba | Yes | +50 | $1 | $1 | 2 | 07-21 05:43 |
| (anonymous) 0x8f4d…fe7f | No | +50 | $48 | $48 | 1 | 07-16 08:53 |
| Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | +43 | $41 | $41 | 5 | 07-05 23:19 |
| (anonymous) 0x6cdd…814d | No | +42 | $40 | $78 | 3 | 06-30 12:37 |
| (anonymous) 0x0b85…addd | No | +41 | $40 | $40 | 1 | 07-26 00:43 |
| (anonymous) 0x18a4…5341 | No | +41 | $40 | $40 | 2 | 07-26 00:56 |
| All-Peasant-Drug 0xe907…cff6 | Yes | +38 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-30 22:53 |
| (anonymous) 0x8c5f…3a5c | No | +35 | $34 | $34 | 1 | 07-30 16:11 |
| Small-Pompom 0x9d73…216b | No | +34 | $33 | $33 | 1 | 07-27 20:06 |
| (anonymous) 0x6ce8…7670 | Yes | +30 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-27 20:04 |
| Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | +30 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-28 20:26 |
| Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | +30 | $29 | $146 | 6 | 07-29 14:05 |
| Humming-Macaw 0xfc92…27c9 | Yes | +30 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-30 20:34 |
| Humming-Macaw 0xfc92…27c9 | No | +30 | $29 | $29 | 1 | 05-30 20:34 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +25 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-28 20:27 |
| (anonymous) 0xe63a…0679 | No | +19 | $18 | $18 | 1 | 06-19 13:41 |
| Bare-Stag 0x2fa8…4359 | No | +14 | $14 | $46 | 8 | 07-12 02:56 |
| Miserly-Innovation 0xac8f…3bc4 | Yes | +6 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 07-27 18:37 |
| (anonymous) 0xe936…e32a | Yes | +6 | $0 | $2 | 3 | 07-13 16:45 |
| Idle-Pineapple 0x5fa5…b7a7 | Yes | +5 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 07-28 00:25 |
| (anonymous) 0x861e…36f6 | Yes | +5 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 08-02 19:53 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 19:53:53 | (anonymous) 0x270b…e632 | Yes | SELL | 296 | 2¢ | $6 | 0x2a5a90… |
| 08-02 19:53:53 | Ample-Instance 0x9d84…1344 | Yes | BUY | 296 | 2¢ | $6 | 0x2a5a90… |
| 08-02 19:53:51 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | BUY | 545 | 2¢ | $12 | 0x8c5ea1… |
| 08-02 19:53:51 | Gullible-Hammer 0x8fce…2566 | Yes | SELL | 1,025 | 2¢ | $22 | 0x8c5ea1… |
| 08-02 19:53:51 | (anonymous) 0x861e…36f6 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x8c5ea1… |
| 08-02 19:53:51 | Ample-Instance 0x9d84…1344 | Yes | BUY | 179 | 2¢ | $4 | 0x8c5ea1… |
| 08-02 19:53:51 | (anonymous) 0x270b…e632 | Yes | BUY | 296 | 2¢ | $7 | 0x8c5ea1… |
| 08-02 07:47:53 | Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x4c7382… |
| 08-02 07:47:53 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x4c7382… |
| 08-02 07:44:51 | (anonymous) 0x5533…51ba | Yes | BUY | 127 | 2¢ | $3 | 0x8ad76f… |
| 08-02 07:44:51 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 127 | 2¢ | $3 | 0x8ad76f… |
| 08-02 04:59:48 | Ample-Instance 0x9d84…1344 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xdfec4d… |
| 08-02 04:59:48 | (anonymous) 0x206b…80c2 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xdfec4d… |
| 08-01 18:49:53 | (anonymous) 0x96ac…8316 | Yes | SELL | 1 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xf47308… |
| 08-01 18:49:53 | Ample-Instance 0x9d84…1344 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xf47308… |
| 08-01 11:59:57 | (anonymous) 0x184b…67b2 | Yes | BUY | 53 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xc25f0a… |
| 08-01 11:59:57 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 53 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xc25f0a… |
| 08-01 11:59:56 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 64 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xe4ee6f… |
| 08-01 11:59:56 | (anonymous) 0xbada…d874 | Yes | BUY | 64 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xe4ee6f… |
| 08-01 11:15:24 | (anonymous) 0xbada…d874 | Yes | BUY | 66 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xe3d684… |
| 08-01 11:15:24 | Square-Ore 0x7d58…462d | Yes | SELL | 50 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xe3d684… |
| 08-01 11:15:24 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 16 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xe3d684… |
| 08-01 07:03:56 | (anonymous) 0x2a7e…9dc6 | No | SELL | 34 | 98¢ | $33 | 0xdda324… |
| 08-01 07:03:56 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 230 | 2¢ | $5 | 0xdda324… |
| 08-01 07:03:56 | Square-Ore 0x7d58…462d | Yes | BUY | 50 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xdda324… |
| 08-01 07:03:56 | Gullible-Hammer 0x8fce…2566 | Yes | BUY | 146 | 2¢ | $3 | 0xdda324… |
| 07-31 20:05:05 | Obedient-Population 0x6c37…d40f | Yes | SELL | 100 | 2¢ | $2 | 0x305556… |
| 07-31 20:05:05 | Rude-Ecology 0x7ac4…4f44 | Yes | SELL | 160 | 2¢ | $4 | 0x305556… |
| 07-31 20:05:05 | Gullible-Hammer 0x8fce…2566 | Yes | BUY | 260 | 2¢ | $6 | 0x305556… |
| 07-31 19:57:38 | Gullible-Hammer 0x8fce…2566 | Yes | BUY | 457 | 2¢ | $10 | 0x71015d… |
| 07-31 19:57:38 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 457 | 2¢ | $10 | 0x71015d… |
| 07-31 19:56:57 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 162 | 2¢ | $4 | 0xe9cf3d… |
| 07-31 19:56:57 | Gullible-Hammer 0x8fce…2566 | Yes | BUY | 162 | 2¢ | $4 | 0xe9cf3d… |
| 07-31 18:15:06 | (anonymous) 0x184b…67b2 | Yes | BUY | 55 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xc74c39… |
| 07-31 18:15:06 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 60 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xc47276… |
| 07-31 18:15:06 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 55 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xc74c39… |
| 07-31 18:15:06 | (anonymous) 0xbada…d874 | Yes | BUY | 60 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xc47276… |
| 07-31 15:24:47 | Weepy-Infusion 0x510b…da8d | Yes | BUY | 95 | 2¢ | $2 | 0x5a449e… |
| 07-31 15:24:47 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 95 | 2¢ | $2 | 0x5a449e… |
| 07-31 15:24:35 | Weepy-Infusion 0x510b…da8d | Yes | SELL | 50 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x534183… |
| 07-31 15:24:35 | Ample-Instance 0x9d84…1344 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x534183… |
| 07-31 14:57:12 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 227 | 2¢ | $5 | 0xdbc7a6… |
| 07-31 14:57:12 | (anonymous) 0x64e8…b506 | Yes | BUY | 227 | 2¢ | $5 | 0xdbc7a6… |
| 07-31 14:33:20 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 400 | 2¢ | $8 | 0xbc2235… |
| 07-31 14:33:20 | Ample-Instance 0x9d84…1344 | Yes | BUY | 400 | 2¢ | $8 | 0xbc2235… |
| 07-31 13:52:47 | (anonymous) 0xb275…6cb2 | Yes | BUY | 43 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xf4a0d7… |
| 07-31 13:52:47 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 43 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xf4a0d7… |
| 07-31 10:48:20 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 4 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xb75b09… |
| 07-31 10:48:20 | (anonymous) 0xbada…d874 | Yes | BUY | 64 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x1a6107… |
| 07-31 10:48:20 | (anonymous) 0x184b…67b2 | Yes | BUY | 55 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xb75b09… |
| 07-31 10:48:20 | Immaterial-Advantage 0xf85f…9800 | Yes | SELL | 51 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xb75b09… |
| 07-31 10:48:20 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 64 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x1a6107… |
| 07-31 10:34:57 | (anonymous) 0xbada…d874 | Yes | SELL | 67 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xb3f5d7… |
| 07-31 10:34:57 | Ample-Instance 0x9d84…1344 | Yes | BUY | 67 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xb3f5d7… |
| 07-31 10:34:09 | Ample-Instance 0x9d84…1344 | Yes | BUY | 65 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x1ca3bb… |
| 07-31 10:34:09 | (anonymous) 0xbada…d874 | Yes | SELL | 65 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x1ca3bb… |
| 07-31 10:34:09 | Ample-Instance 0x9d84…1344 | Yes | BUY | 65 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x245427… |
| 07-31 10:34:09 | (anonymous) 0xbada…d874 | Yes | SELL | 65 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x245427… |
| 07-31 10:34:08 | Ample-Instance 0x9d84…1344 | Yes | BUY | 39 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x094e94… |
| 07-31 10:34:08 | Ample-Instance 0x9d84…1344 | Yes | BUY | 45 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x7822b4… |
| 07-31 10:34:08 | (anonymous) 0xbada…d874 | Yes | SELL | 39 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x094e94… |
| 07-31 10:34:08 | (anonymous) 0xbada…d874 | Yes | SELL | 45 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x7822b4… |
| 07-31 10:06:27 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 82 | 2¢ | $2 | 0x25a821… |
| 07-31 10:06:27 | (anonymous) 0x64e8…b506 | Yes | BUY | 82 | 2¢ | $2 | 0x25a821… |
| 07-31 09:47:00 | Ample-Instance 0x9d84…1344 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x691ace… |
| 07-31 09:47:00 | (anonymous) 0x1fa3…f36d | Yes | SELL | 50 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x691ace… |
| 07-31 04:17:23 | (anonymous) 0x64e8…b506 | Yes | BUY | 182 | 2¢ | $4 | 0xd88d0c… |
| 07-31 04:17:23 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 182 | 2¢ | $4 | 0xd88d0c… |
| 07-31 01:57:00 | (anonymous) 0x1fa3…f36d | Yes | BUY | 50 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x2dc154… |
| 07-31 01:57:00 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 50 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x2dc154… |
| 07-30 20:00:45 | Weepy-Infusion 0x510b…da8d | Yes | SELL | 120 | 2¢ | $3 | 0x85ed43… |
| 07-30 20:00:45 | Ample-Instance 0x9d84…1344 | Yes | BUY | 120 | 2¢ | $3 | 0x85ed43… |
| 07-30 18:50:32 | Frightening-Rainmaker 0x43fd…59d3 | No | SELL | 75 | 98¢ | $73 | 0x3d2883… |
| 07-30 18:50:32 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 75 | 2¢ | $2 | 0x3d2883… |
| 07-30 16:11:50 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 227 | 2¢ | $5 | 0x042a28… |
| 07-30 16:11:50 | (anonymous) 0x44b7…2e99 | Yes | BUY | 227 | 2¢ | $5 | 0x042a28… |
| 07-30 16:11:48 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 17 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x461c9c… |
| 07-30 16:11:48 | (anonymous) 0xaa06…1e0f | Yes | BUY | 60 | 2¢ | $1 | 0x461c9c… |
| 07-30 16:11:48 | (anonymous) 0x8c5f…3a5c | No | BUY | 35 | 98¢ | $34 | 0x461c9c… |
| 07-30 16:11:48 | (anonymous) 0x2d41…8c3d | No | BUY | 8 | 98¢ | $8 | 0x461c9c… |
| 07-30 16:11:44 | Ample-Instance 0x9d84…1344 | Yes | BUY | 396 | 2¢ | $8 | 0x721230… |
| 07-30 16:11:44 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 396 | 2¢ | $8 | 0x721230… |
| 07-30 15:50:48 | Silver-Stool 0xb924…0803 | No | SELL | 50 | 98¢ | $49 | 0x07f238… |
| 07-30 15:50:48 | (anonymous) 0x2d41…8c3d | No | BUY | 50 | 98¢ | $49 | 0x07f238… |
| 07-30 06:51:09 | (anonymous) 0xfbf7…c485 | Yes | SELL | 116 | 2¢ | $2 | 0x2b5405… |
| 07-30 06:51:09 | Ample-Instance 0x9d84…1344 | Yes | BUY | 116 | 2¢ | $2 | 0x2b5405… |
| 07-29 20:30:38 | Young-Melon 0x8768…dd9b | No | SELL | 904 | 98¢ | $883 | 0x7c0f64… |
| 07-29 20:30:38 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 904 | 2¢ | $22 | 0x7c0f64… |
| 07-29 18:35:23 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 1,925 | 2¢ | $40 | 0xee9d1e… |
| 07-29 18:35:23 | Ample-Instance 0x9d84…1344 | Yes | BUY | 1,925 | 2¢ | $40 | 0xee9d1e… |
| 07-29 14:07:32 | Insubstantial-Parchment 0x025d…5b22 | Yes | BUY | 40 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xbc5263… |
| 07-29 14:07:32 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 40 | 2¢ | $1 | 0xbc5263… |
| 07-29 14:05:39 | Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse 0xe457…5ab3 | No | SELL | 20 | 98¢ | $20 | 0xcc4b49… |
| 07-29 14:05:39 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xcc4b49… |
| 07-29 14:05:36 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 14 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x060a76… |
| 07-29 14:05:36 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 30 | 98¢ | $29 | 0x060a76… |
| 07-29 14:05:36 | Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse 0xe457…5ab3 | No | BUY | 20 | 98¢ | $20 | 0x060a76… |
| 07-29 14:05:36 | (anonymous) 0x3669…b4bd | Yes | BUY | 64 | 2¢ | $2 | 0x060a76… |
| 07-29 14:05:05 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 924 | 2¢ | $19 | 0xc16aeb… |
| 07-29 14:05:05 | (anonymous) 0x6553…35e2 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 2¢ | $0 | 0xc16aeb… |