Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?
open
Total volume
$10,489
$12 in 24h
Trades
364
Unique wallets
91
Liquidity
$18,942
Latest YES mid
4¢
Latest NO mid
96¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-28
last 07-10 08:40
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-16.4¢
(top1%: 0% YES on $19
vs crowd: 16% YES on $4.4K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 13 | $71 | $880 | $809 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 26 | $580 | $811 | $231 |
| 🐟 Fish | 14 | $50 | $223 | $173 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 38 | $22 | $1.8K | $1.8K |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 3 | — | $19 | $19 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 4 | $36 | — | +$36 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 6 | $26 | — | +$26 |
| Median | 9 | $1 | $304 | $303 |
| Below median | 13 | $14 | $89 | $75 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 3 | $13 | — | +$13 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 8 | $93 | $570 | $477 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 5 | $71 | $173 | $102 |
| unranked | 40 | $469 | $2.5K | $2.1K |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | +3,823 | $214 | $638 | 75 | 07-10 08:40 |
| Inconsequential-Platinum 0x5c0a…a2c3 | No | +265 | $251 | $724 | 3 | 06-17 20:54 |
| Inconsequential-Platinum 0x5c0a…a2c3 | Yes | +265 | $14 | $14 | 2 | 06-09 06:03 |
| Weepy-Infusion 0x510b…da8d | Yes | +250 | $11 | $11 | 3 | 07-08 05:54 |
| (anonymous) 0x393d…8fae | Yes | +247 | $10 | $10 | 2 | 07-09 20:04 |
| Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | +177 | $9 | $26 | 6 | 07-09 20:04 |
| (anonymous) 0x2a7e…9dc6 | No | +100 | $96 | $96 | 1 | 07-08 02:50 |
| Fruitful-Heroine 0x1e98…6345 | Yes | +100 | $7 | $53 | 12 | 06-22 09:05 |
| Double-Valley 0xec82…6eaa | Yes | +61 | $6 | $42 | 8 | 06-22 09:05 |
| (anonymous) 0x61e9…d676 | No | +53 | $50 | $50 | 1 | 06-11 08:13 |
| Square-Ore 0x7d58…462d | Yes | +50 | $2 | $8 | 3 | 07-09 20:04 |
| Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | +43 | $41 | $41 | 5 | 07-05 23:19 |
| (anonymous) 0x6cdd…814d | No | +42 | $40 | $78 | 3 | 06-30 12:37 |
| All-Peasant-Drug 0xe907…cff6 | Yes | +38 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-30 22:53 |
| Humming-Macaw 0xfc92…27c9 | Yes | +30 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 05-30 20:34 |
| (anonymous) 0x6553…35e2 | Yes | +30 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 07-09 11:09 |
| Humming-Macaw 0xfc92…27c9 | No | +30 | $29 | $29 | 1 | 05-30 20:34 |
| (anonymous) 0xe63a…0679 | No | +19 | $18 | $18 | 1 | 06-19 13:41 |
| Useless-Smoking 0xf609…e68b | Yes | +1 | $0 | $7 | 2 | 07-08 03:26 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-10 08:40:43 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | BUY | 66 | 4¢ | $2 | 0xba244d… |
| 07-10 08:40:43 | (anonymous) 0xc6d7…4399 | Yes | SELL | 66 | 4¢ | $2 | 0xba244d… |
| 07-10 03:29:41 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 4¢ | $2 | 0xe0f479… |
| 07-10 03:29:41 | Smart-Cork 0x8494…814a | Yes | SELL | 50 | 4¢ | $2 | 0xe0f479… |
| 07-09 22:04:08 | (anonymous) 0xba6c…618b | Yes | SELL | 50 | 4¢ | $2 | 0x097ef2… |
| 07-09 22:04:08 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 4¢ | $2 | 0x097ef2… |
| 07-09 21:06:46 | (anonymous) 0xae7d…058f | Yes | SELL | 50 | 4¢ | $2 | 0xbe1702… |
| 07-09 21:06:46 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | BUY | 43 | 4¢ | $2 | 0xbe1702… |
| 07-09 20:04:52 | Snappy-Rooster 0xc602…7fc1 | Yes | BUY | 127 | 4¢ | $5 | 0xca8549… |
| 07-09 20:04:52 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 127 | 4¢ | $5 | 0xca8549… |
| 07-09 20:04:38 | Mealy-Elbow 0x2a20…89d2 | Yes | SELL | 30 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xe08846… |
| 07-09 20:04:38 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xe08846… |
| 07-09 20:04:14 | Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse 0xe457…5ab3 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xcce4c5… |
| 07-09 20:04:14 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xcce4c5… |
| 07-09 20:04:11 | Smart-Cork 0x8494…814a | Yes | BUY | 50 | 4¢ | $2 | 0x3fd0fa… |
| 07-09 20:04:11 | Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse 0xe457…5ab3 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x3fd0fa… |
| 07-09 20:04:11 | (anonymous) 0x393d…8fae | Yes | BUY | 168 | 4¢ | $7 | 0x3fd0fa… |
| 07-09 20:04:11 | (anonymous) 0xba6c…618b | Yes | BUY | 50 | 4¢ | $2 | 0x3fd0fa… |
| 07-09 20:04:11 | (anonymous) 0x3595…834d | No | SELL | 51 | 96¢ | $49 | 0x3fd0fa… |
| 07-09 20:04:11 | (anonymous) 0xae7d…058f | Yes | BUY | 50 | 4¢ | $2 | 0x3fd0fa… |
| 07-09 20:04:11 | Square-Ore 0x7d58…462d | Yes | BUY | 50 | 4¢ | $2 | 0x3fd0fa… |
| 07-09 20:04:11 | Mealy-Elbow 0x2a20…89d2 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x3fd0fa… |
| 07-09 20:04:11 | Failing-Wedding 0xb8a4…a13b | No | SELL | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0x3fd0fa… |
| 07-09 20:04:11 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 475 | 4¢ | $19 | 0x3fd0fa… |
| 07-09 11:09:19 | (anonymous) 0x6553…35e2 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x5b7ba1… |
| 07-09 11:09:19 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 30 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x5b7ba1… |
| 07-08 22:00:25 | Flamboyant-Porch 0xda20…cb8d | No | SELL | 50 | 95¢ | $48 | 0x5982f2… |
| 07-08 22:00:25 | Disastrous-Bend 0xe000…cbb1 | Yes | SELL | 26 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x5982f2… |
| 07-08 14:29:31 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x7e143a… |
| 07-08 14:29:31 | Disastrous-Bend 0xe000…cbb1 | Yes | SELL | 11 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x7e143a… |
| 07-08 14:29:31 | Bare-Stag 0x2fa8…4359 | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x7e143a… |
| 07-08 11:50:35 | Disastrous-Bend 0xe000…cbb1 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x65a8d1… |
| 07-08 11:50:35 | Flamboyant-Porch 0xda20…cb8d | No | BUY | 50 | 96¢ | $48 | 0x65a8d1… |
| 07-08 11:50:35 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | BUY | 90 | 4¢ | $4 | 0x65a8d1… |
| 07-08 05:54:22 | Weepy-Infusion 0x510b…da8d | Yes | BUY | 180 | 4¢ | $8 | 0x4fa46c… |
| 07-08 05:54:22 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 180 | 4¢ | $8 | 0x4fa46c… |
| 07-08 04:20:01 | Weepy-Infusion 0x510b…da8d | Yes | BUY | 40 | 4¢ | $2 | 0x17dac3… |
| 07-08 04:20:01 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 40 | 4¢ | $2 | 0x17dac3… |
| 07-08 03:40:16 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x791c1a… |
| 07-08 03:40:16 | Weepy-Infusion 0x510b…da8d | Yes | BUY | 30 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x791c1a… |
| 07-08 03:26:38 | (anonymous) 0x393d…8fae | Yes | BUY | 79 | 4¢ | $3 | 0x3ea1ca… |
| 07-08 03:26:38 | Useless-Smoking 0xf609…e68b | Yes | SELL | 79 | 4¢ | $3 | 0x3ea1ca… |
| 07-08 02:56:55 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 80 | 4¢ | $3 | 0x181a3b… |
| 07-08 02:56:55 | Useless-Smoking 0xf609…e68b | Yes | BUY | 80 | 4¢ | $3 | 0x181a3b… |
| 07-08 02:50:59 | Late-Stepbrother 0x0aae…251c | No | SELL | 950 | 96¢ | $909 | 0xc2f60a… |
| 07-08 02:50:59 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 800 | 4¢ | $34 | 0xc2f60a… |
| 07-08 02:50:59 | (anonymous) 0x2a7e…9dc6 | No | BUY | 100 | 96¢ | $96 | 0xc2f60a… |
| 07-08 02:50:59 | Disastrous-Bend 0xe000…cbb1 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xc2f60a… |
| 07-08 02:50:59 | Bare-Stag 0x2fa8…4359 | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xc2f60a… |
| 07-07 20:40:46 | (anonymous) 0x3595…834d | No | SELL | 3 | 96¢ | $3 | 0x2cd8a4… |
| 07-07 20:40:46 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | Yes | SELL | 17 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x2766d4… |
| 07-07 20:40:46 | Disastrous-Bend 0xe000…cbb1 | Yes | BUY | 17 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x2766d4… |
| 07-07 20:40:46 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | Yes | SELL | 3 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x2cd8a4… |
| 07-07 20:40:32 | (anonymous) 0x9de6…e7f0 | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xad7934… |
| 07-07 20:40:32 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | Yes | BUY | 20 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xad7934… |
| 07-07 20:40:32 | Ringed-Grenade 0x2657…42e6 | Yes | SELL | 28 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xad7934… |
| 07-07 20:40:32 | Disastrous-Bend 0xe000…cbb1 | Yes | BUY | 3 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xad7934… |
| 07-06 06:55:14 | (anonymous) 0x9de6…e7f0 | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0xa2975b… |
| 07-06 06:55:14 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xa2975b… |
| 07-05 23:19:47 | Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | BUY | 14 | 96¢ | $13 | 0x4a31d6… |
| 07-05 23:19:47 | Disastrous-Bend 0xe000…cbb1 | Yes | BUY | 14 | 4¢ | $1 | 0x4a31d6… |
| 07-04 22:59:43 | Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3 | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x5c48ba… |
| 07-04 22:59:43 | (anonymous) 0x9de6…e7f0 | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x5c48ba… |
| 07-03 18:09:55 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 80 | 5¢ | $4 | 0x5a4f5d… |
| 07-03 18:09:55 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | SELL | 80 | 95¢ | $76 | 0x5a4f5d… |
| 07-03 09:29:32 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | BUY | 220 | 5¢ | $10 | 0x1b2d9b… |
| 07-03 09:29:32 | Jumbo-Discharge 0x9070…e32c | Yes | SELL | 9 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x1b2d9b… |
| 07-03 09:29:32 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | BUY | 80 | 95¢ | $76 | 0x1b2d9b… |
| 07-03 09:29:32 | Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | Yes | SELL | 60 | 5¢ | $3 | 0x1b2d9b… |
| 07-03 09:29:32 | Disastrous-Bend 0xe000…cbb1 | Yes | SELL | 40 | 5¢ | $2 | 0x1b2d9b… |
| 07-03 09:29:32 | (anonymous) 0x9de6…e7f0 | No | BUY | 5 | 95¢ | $5 | 0x1b2d9b… |
| 07-03 09:29:32 | Failing-Wedding 0xb8a4…a13b | No | BUY | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0x1b2d9b… |
| 07-02 22:51:23 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | BUY | 42 | 4¢ | $2 | 0xbdb1ef… |
| 07-02 22:51:23 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | Yes | SELL | 42 | 4¢ | $2 | 0xbdb1ef… |
| 07-02 22:51:17 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xf562bc… |
| 07-02 22:51:17 | Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse 0xe457…5ab3 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 4¢ | $1 | 0xf562bc… |
| 07-02 22:51:14 | Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse 0xe457…5ab3 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 5¢ | $1 | 0xfb5bc9… |
| 07-02 22:51:14 | (anonymous) 0xe056…00cc | No | SELL | 50 | 95¢ | $48 | 0xfb5bc9… |
| 07-02 22:51:14 | Jumbo-Discharge 0x9070…e32c | Yes | BUY | 9 | 5¢ | $0 | 0xfb5bc9… |
| 07-02 22:51:14 | (anonymous) 0x807c…e9ca | No | SELL | 53 | 95¢ | $50 | 0xfb5bc9… |
| 07-02 22:51:14 | (anonymous) 0x6236…4558 | No | SELL | 53 | 95¢ | $50 | 0xfb5bc9… |
| 07-02 22:51:14 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 228 | 5¢ | $11 | 0xfb5bc9… |
| 07-02 22:51:14 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | Yes | BUY | 42 | 5¢ | $2 | 0xfb5bc9… |
| 06-30 22:53:23 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 38 | 5¢ | $2 | 0xad93f2… |
| 06-30 22:53:23 | All-Peasant-Drug 0xe907…cff6 | Yes | BUY | 38 | 5¢ | $2 | 0xad93f2… |
| 06-30 12:37:28 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | Yes | SELL | 20 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x46f458… |
| 06-30 12:37:28 | (anonymous) 0x6cdd…814d | No | SELL | 20 | 95¢ | $19 | 0x46f458… |
| 06-30 12:37:26 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | Yes | SELL | 20 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x4b4c4b… |
| 06-30 12:37:26 | Creamy-Geology 0xf524…8178 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x4b4c4b… |
| 06-30 12:37:25 | (anonymous) 0xc3fc…484a | Yes | BUY | 40 | 5¢ | $2 | 0x411542… |
| 06-30 12:37:25 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | SELL | 60 | 95¢ | $57 | 0x411542… |
| 06-30 12:37:25 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 100 | 5¢ | $5 | 0x411542… |
| 06-30 12:37:25 | (anonymous) 0xc215…1ac0 | No | SELL | 0 | 95¢ | $0 | 0x411542… |
| 06-30 07:52:19 | (anonymous) 0xc215…1ac0 | No | SELL | 71 | 95¢ | $67 | 0x900d8a… |
| 06-30 07:52:19 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 71 | 5¢ | $4 | 0x900d8a… |
| 06-29 20:15:40 | (anonymous) 0x3b53…879c | No | SELL | 3 | 95¢ | $3 | 0x797f2c… |
| 06-29 20:15:40 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 3 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x797f2c… |
| 06-29 20:06:35 | (anonymous) 0xd52a…c011 | Yes | SELL | 25 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x0df5dd… |
| 06-29 20:06:35 | (anonymous) 0xc215…1ac0 | No | SELL | 25 | 95¢ | $24 | 0x0df5dd… |
| 06-29 20:06:08 | (anonymous) 0xd52a…c011 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x165538… |