Insubstantial-Parchment — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

46.6%

Resolved

Trades

749

lifetime

Volume

$2.39K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-10

last 08-14 12:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

44% — —

Politics

33% 33% $-3

Crypto

17% — —

Sports

6% 100% +$0

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

49 active days in 12wk • peak 224 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	24	$111	218	136	+82	open	—	08-12 18:16
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	12	$93	58	47	+11	open	—	04-24 18:48
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	15	$75	54	45	+9	open	—	05-05 14:07
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	16	$73	173	167	+6	open	—	07-07 02:37
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	12	$73	56	66	-10	open	—	05-29 18:48
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	3	$69	105	105	+0	open	—	07-25 02:36
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	10	$44	30	25	+5	open	—	05-11 06:03
will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	8	$40	68	0	+68	open	—	07-01 20:56
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	8	$39	28	25	+3	open	—	08-01 23:34
will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	4	$35	26	15	+11	open	—	08-09 06:50
will trump meet with netanyahu by july 31 2026	5	$34	27	10	+17	open	—	07-24 18:26
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	20	$30	284	85	+199	open	—	08-14 01:46
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	12	$29	17	17	+0	open	—	06-04 16:06
will graham platner drop out by july 8	2	$28	40	14	+26	open	—	07-08 21:13
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	18	$26	287	0	+287	open	—	08-02 06:32
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	6	$26	15	15	+0	open	—	08-11 13:17
fifwc esp aut 2026 07 02 total 1pt5	3	$25	20	10	+10	open	—	07-02 12:12
elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 240 259	2	$23	13	13	+0	open	—	03-19 09:28
Fed rate hike in 2026?	2	$22	66	0	+66	open	—	07-29 19:08
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets	5	$21	12	12	+0	open	—	05-02 03:13
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	1	$20	29	0	+29	open	—	07-08 15:48
will graham platner drop out by july 31	1	$20	22	0	+22	open	—	07-06 21:23
will samuel alito announce his retirement by june 30 2027 20260630164636932 777 232	1	$20	38	0	+38	open	—	07-12 09:25
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	1	$20	222	0	+222	open	—	07-24 13:51
will graham platner drop out by july 17	1	$20	22	0	+22	open	—	07-06 21:23
will lebanon recognize israel by december 31	1	$20	70	0	+70	open	—	07-02 21:29
will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	1	$20	23	0	+23	open	—	07-31 19:36
will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	6	$20	71	0	+71	open	—	07-04 22:56
btc updown 5m 1781922000	5	$20	49	0	+49	open	—	06-20 02:18
uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	1	$20	39	0	+39	open	—	07-31 19:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-14 12:49:04	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xbcf0c0…
08-14 05:06:57	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	No	BUY	8	84¢	$7	0x28f668…
08-14 03:44:54	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	No	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0xe53562…
08-14 03:13:55	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	No	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x8cf410…
08-14 02:48:28	will andrew scott be nominated for best actor at the 99th academy awards	Yes	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x167dab…
08-14 01:46:09	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	40	12¢	$5	0x4c0d6d…
08-14 01:46:06	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	12¢	$1	0x0c577c…
08-14 01:46:04	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	12¢	$1	0x693564…
08-14 01:46:03	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	12¢	$1	0x100dcb…
08-14 01:46:01	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	12¢	$1	0x6580e3…
08-14 01:46:00	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	12¢	$1	0x80bf10…
08-14 01:45:58	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10	12¢	$1	0xa81e7c…
08-14 01:44:58	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	10¢	$0	0x278ac0…
08-12 18:16:28	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	5	82¢	$4	0x156860…
08-11 13:17:40	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0xa8eca4…
08-10 00:50:34	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	4	80¢	$3	0x719d91…
08-10 00:44:54	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x400276…
08-10 00:32:48	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	SELL	5	86¢	$4	0x9bd33b…
08-09 07:17:55	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	47¢	$4	0x228850…
08-09 07:12:12	Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xf89683…
08-09 06:50:57	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x307a33…
08-09 04:23:19	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	11	86¢	$9	0xbb4b6d…
08-09 04:20:34	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0xeaf6f8…
08-08 05:16:48	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	SELL	4	82¢	$3	0x24855d…
08-07 20:09:25	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	4	81¢	$3	0x966f3c…
08-07 20:06:25	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	4	79¢	$3	0x7a4389…
08-06 02:11:26	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	4	76¢	$3	0x89d87c…
08-02 06:32:15	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	9	8¢	$1	0x31ed1c…
08-02 00:02:02	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	No	BUY	79	22¢	$17	0xf92759…
08-01 23:34:26	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	SELL	5	77¢	$4	0x43aa1e…
08-01 23:34:03	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0x5d1387…
08-01 23:34:00	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0x9c79b0…
08-01 17:16:02	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	28	7¢	$2	0xdd071e…
07-31 23:05:17	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	109	9¢	$10	0x97805c…
07-31 22:55:57	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	BUY	28	71¢	$20	0x9c95d2…
07-31 22:46:56	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	47	25¢	$12	0xf63c74…
07-31 22:46:54	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x10779a…
07-31 22:46:53	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xfa4d6d…
07-31 22:46:50	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x03457e…
07-31 22:46:48	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0xddf030…
07-31 22:46:45	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x6286fa…
07-31 22:46:44	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x2328a8…
07-31 22:46:42	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x2ce5f6…
07-31 21:30:41	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xbd9cc3…
07-31 21:30:38	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xef4b0e…
07-31 21:30:38	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x6586fb…
07-31 19:36:59	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	BUY	23	88¢	$20	0x28d642…
07-31 19:24:54	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	BUY	39	50¢	$20	0x63ffde…
07-31 18:18:21	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	70	9¢	$6	0x943a5a…
07-29 19:08:15	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x69ffdf…
07-29 18:50:23	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	62	32¢	$20	0xf10f07…
07-29 14:07:32	Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?	Yes	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0xbc5263…
07-29 13:02:53	Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	Yes	BUY	11	37¢	$4	0xbd89eb…
07-29 13:02:51	Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x4ebf02…
07-29 12:33:47	Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x694ca5…
07-28 22:26:23	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xb278c9…
07-28 22:26:22	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x8674e7…
07-28 22:26:20	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x9e0f60…
07-28 22:26:19	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x7eae0b…
07-28 22:26:16	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x94d86e…
07-28 21:48:17	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	18	9¢	$2	0x771df9…
07-28 21:16:10	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	15	9¢	$1	0x6b9865…
07-28 20:47:08	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x0d93fa…
07-28 20:32:41	Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?	Yes	BUY	38	3¢	$1	0x8dcf84…
07-28 20:21:08	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	15	9¢	$1	0x6114e3…
07-28 19:23:04	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	13	9¢	$1	0x3d02a0…
07-28 19:23:02	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	15	9¢	$1	0xde5814…
07-28 18:07:35	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	22	9¢	$2	0xdc74a7…
07-28 18:07:32	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	15	9¢	$1	0xb365fe…
07-28 17:35:38	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xd9f313…
07-28 17:06:43	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xe555e4…
07-28 16:43:25	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	13	9¢	$1	0x79ed50…
07-27 20:06:18	Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?	Yes	BUY	42	4¢	$2	0x236c94…
07-25 02:36:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	30	48¢	$14	0xc28224…
07-25 00:50:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	75	48¢	$36	0x540b74…
07-24 18:26:36	will trump meet with netanyahu by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x024efe…
07-24 17:51:42	will trump meet with netanyahu by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	5	92¢	$5	0x584718…
07-24 15:26:36	will trump meet with netanyahu by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	7	89¢	$6	0xf4187d…
07-24 14:47:57	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x0125db…
07-24 14:18:12	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	58	28¢	$16	0x7e6a4c…
07-24 14:18:00	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	26	72¢	$18	0x2d04b4…
07-24 14:09:00	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	22	28¢	$6	0x0203fb…
07-24 13:51:30	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	222	9¢	$20	0x1bfe93…
07-24 13:48:36	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	31	28¢	$9	0x28bb61…
07-19 14:59:06	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 btts	Yes	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0x348532…
07-16 19:14:16	Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Yes	BUY	29	15¢	$4	0xbf2cad…
07-16 08:57:37	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	7	42¢	$3	0xa54511…
07-16 08:57:17	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0x96d21e…
07-16 08:56:01	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	2	68¢	$1	0xec2894…
07-16 08:55:46	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	10	87¢	$9	0xf72ec6…
07-15 21:16:55	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	16	6¢	$1	0x9ee4b2…
07-15 05:05:50	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	16	6¢	$1	0xb8d523…
07-15 05:05:47	Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a Presidential run before 2027?	No	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0xc4d344…
07-15 04:54:10	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	16	6¢	$1	0x3442f8…
07-15 03:38:31	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	16	6¢	$1	0x7c7460…
07-15 02:46:56	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	16	6¢	$1	0x6662c1…
07-14 22:06:50	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	16	6¢	$1	0x777eb4…
07-14 22:03:46	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	16	6¢	$1	0xfa395b…
07-14 21:57:40	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	16	6¢	$1	0x38e64c…
07-14 21:51:49	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	16	6¢	$1	0xcbedf3…