Insubstantial-Parchment — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

46.6%

Resolved

Trades

665

lifetime

Volume

$2.10K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-10

last 07-25 02:36

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

43% — —

Politics

31% 33% $-3

Crypto

19% — —

Sports

7% 100% +$0

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

47 active days in 12wk • peak 224 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	12	$93	58	47	+11	open	—	04-24 18:48
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	15	$75	54	45	+9	open	—	05-05 14:07
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	16	$73	173	167	+6	open	—	07-07 02:37
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	12	$73	56	66	-10	open	—	05-29 18:48
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	11	$71	138	111	+27	open	—	07-24 14:47
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	3	$69	105	105	+0	open	—	07-25 02:36
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	10	$44	30	25	+5	open	—	05-11 06:03
will donald trump publicly insult benjamin netanyahu by june 30 2026	8	$40	68	0	+68	open	—	07-01 20:56
will trump meet with netanyahu by july 31 2026	5	$34	27	10	+17	open	—	07-24 18:26
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 7 2026	12	$29	17	17	+0	open	—	06-04 16:06
will graham platner drop out by july 8	2	$28	40	14	+26	open	—	07-08 21:13
fifwc esp aut 2026 07 02 total 1pt5	3	$25	20	10	+10	open	—	07-02 12:12
elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 240 259	2	$23	13	13	+0	open	—	03-19 09:28
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets	5	$21	12	12	+0	open	—	05-02 03:13
will samuel alito announce his retirement by june 30 2027 20260630164636932 777 232	1	$20	38	0	+38	open	—	07-12 09:25
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	1	$20	29	0	+29	open	—	07-08 15:48
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	1	$20	222	0	+222	open	—	07-24 13:51
will lebanon recognize israel by december 31	1	$20	70	0	+70	open	—	07-02 21:29
will graham platner drop out by july 17	1	$20	22	0	+22	open	—	07-06 21:23
will graham platner drop out by july 31	1	$20	22	0	+22	open	—	07-06 21:23
will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	1	$20	26	0	+26	open	—	07-01 10:36
will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	6	$20	71	0	+71	open	—	07-04 22:56
btc updown 5m 1781922000	5	$20	49	0	+49	open	—	06-20 02:18
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30?	8	$18	10	10	-0	open	—	06-14 13:06
fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 total 2pt5	3	$18	25	0	+25	open	—	07-11 22:21
nba playoffs will president trump attend the nba finals	8	$18	11	11	+0	open	—	06-08 14:50
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website?	5	$16	15	15	+0	open	—	05-09 12:35
elon musk of tweets march 9 march 11 140 164	2	$14	49	49	+0	open	—	03-11 02:39
deepseek v4 released by april 24	3	$13	15	0	+15	open	—	04-24 03:38
Will Putin visit China by May 31?	3	$13	10	5	+5	open	—	05-13 04:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-27 20:06:18	Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?	Yes	BUY	42	4¢	$2	0x236c94…
07-25 02:36:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	30	48¢	$14	0xc28224…
07-25 00:50:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	75	48¢	$36	0x540b74…
07-24 18:26:36	will trump meet with netanyahu by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x024efe…
07-24 17:51:42	will trump meet with netanyahu by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	5	92¢	$5	0x584718…
07-24 15:26:36	will trump meet with netanyahu by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	7	89¢	$6	0xf4187d…
07-24 14:47:57	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x0125db…
07-24 14:18:12	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	58	28¢	$16	0x7e6a4c…
07-24 14:18:00	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	26	72¢	$18	0x2d04b4…
07-24 14:09:00	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	22	28¢	$6	0x0203fb…
07-24 13:51:30	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	222	9¢	$20	0x1bfe93…
07-24 13:48:36	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	31	28¢	$9	0x28bb61…
07-19 14:59:06	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 btts	Yes	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0x348532…
07-16 19:14:16	Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Yes	BUY	29	15¢	$4	0xbf2cad…
07-16 08:57:37	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	7	42¢	$3	0xa54511…
07-16 08:57:17	fifwc esp arg 2026 07 19 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0x96d21e…
07-16 08:56:01	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	2	68¢	$1	0xec2894…
07-16 08:55:46	fifwc fra eng 2026 07 18 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	10	87¢	$9	0xf72ec6…
07-15 21:16:55	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	16	6¢	$1	0x9ee4b2…
07-15 05:05:50	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	16	6¢	$1	0xb8d523…
07-15 05:05:47	Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce a Presidential run before 2027?	No	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0xc4d344…
07-15 04:54:10	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	16	6¢	$1	0x3442f8…
07-15 03:38:31	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	16	6¢	$1	0x7c7460…
07-15 02:46:56	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	16	6¢	$1	0x6662c1…
07-14 22:06:50	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	16	6¢	$1	0x777eb4…
07-14 22:03:46	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	16	6¢	$1	0xfa395b…
07-14 21:57:40	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	16	6¢	$1	0x38e64c…
07-14 21:51:49	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	16	6¢	$1	0xcbedf3…
07-14 19:12:17	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 btts	Yes	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0xda65bc…
07-13 09:46:32	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	64	18¢	$11	0x626901…
07-13 09:46:31	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x059932…
07-13 09:35:05	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x8b3e39…
07-13 09:32:13	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xa9cb5f…
07-13 09:29:20	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x32d472…
07-13 09:26:31	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	25	18¢	$4	0x9202c2…
07-12 15:42:40	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 team to advance	England	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x1074c0…
07-12 15:40:10	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	7	43¢	$3	0x45b1fe…
07-12 15:39:52	fifwc eng arg 2026 07 15 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	10	69¢	$7	0xd59995…
07-12 09:25:23	will samuel alito announce his retirement by june 30 2027 20260630164636932 777 232	Yes	BUY	38	52¢	$20	0x2b61a6…
07-12 03:46:59	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xccf7d0…
07-12 03:46:40	fifwc fra esp 2026 07 14 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	10	77¢	$8	0xfb1983…
07-12 03:03:05	fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 team to advance	Switzerland	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x794d2e…
07-12 02:38:44	fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 total 3pt5	Over	SELL	24	17¢	$4	0x00bb92…
07-12 01:06:52	fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 first half total 0pt5	Over	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x8f9298…
07-12 01:02:17	fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 total 3pt5	Over	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0x13ceac…
07-12 01:01:25	fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 team total away 0pt5	Over	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x862dee…
07-12 01:00:35	fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 btts	Yes	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x80f5ce…
07-11 22:22:26	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 total 3pt5	Over	BUY	6	38¢	$2	0x916ab7…
07-11 22:21:55	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	10	75¢	$8	0x28b96e…
07-11 22:20:38	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	11	76¢	$8	0xcc89a5…
07-11 11:30:31	fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0x84e6c8…
07-08 21:13:28	will graham platner drop out by july 8	Yes	SELL	14	63¢	$9	0x50df9b…
07-08 19:10:01	Will Sabrina Carpenter perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	Yes	BUY	17	11¢	$2	0x87c912…
07-08 19:09:59	Will Sabrina Carpenter perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xb93dfe…
07-08 18:42:52	will graham platner drop out by july 8	Yes	BUY	40	47¢	$19	0xc05b13…
07-08 15:48:59	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	29	70¢	$20	0x278d66…
07-08 13:03:05	fifwc arg che 2026 07 11 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	7	43¢	$3	0xe1fa07…
07-08 04:41:02	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 team to advance	England	BUY	10	66¢	$7	0xd5e1e5…
07-07 19:34:44	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0xcff5ef…
07-07 19:30:25	fifwc nor eng 2026 07 11 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0x814742…
07-07 19:24:31	fifwc esp bel 2026 07 10 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0xff8b59…
07-07 19:24:04	fifwc esp bel 2026 07 10 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	10	77¢	$8	0xb752a7…
07-07 19:23:04	fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	5	49¢	$3	0xd62d58…
07-07 02:37:10	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	73	24¢	$18	0xe8c836…
07-07 02:34:44	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	5	23¢	$1	0xfa4c5f…
07-07 02:31:46	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	12	22¢	$3	0x94af15…
07-07 01:12:11	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x7ff70b…
07-06 22:39:02	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	78	16¢	$12	0xe53e51…
07-06 22:29:53	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	31	25¢	$8	0x142de4…
07-06 22:25:38	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	SELL	31	25¢	$8	0xc1eda1…
07-06 22:24:05	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0x693f03…
07-06 22:23:31	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	66	20¢	$13	0xeed85a…
07-06 21:26:34	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x70689e…
07-06 21:26:31	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x3e9f02…
07-06 21:26:29	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x910d69…
07-06 21:23:26	will graham platner drop out by july 31	Yes	BUY	22	90¢	$20	0x81aa8c…
07-06 21:23:25	will graham platner drop out by july 17	Yes	BUY	22	89¢	$20	0xca401f…
07-06 21:10:34	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x7599df…
07-06 17:01:58	fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	10	73¢	$7	0x4c60d3…
07-05 04:56:14	fifwc che col 2026 07 07 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	8	40¢	$3	0xe59639…
07-05 04:55:44	fifwc che col 2026 07 07 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	10	67¢	$7	0x7531d3…
07-05 04:54:28	fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	5	48¢	$3	0x3caf7b…
07-05 04:53:35	fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	10	73¢	$7	0x3834e1…
07-05 04:51:50	fifwc usa bel 2026 07 06 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	3	56¢	$2	0x7e501d…
07-05 04:51:20	fifwc usa bel 2026 07 06 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0x1f1882…
07-05 04:50:19	fifwc prt esp 2026 07 06 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0xa867d0…
07-05 04:49:49	fifwc prt esp 2026 07 06 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0x1e3ee7…
07-05 04:48:40	fifwc mex eng 2026 07 05 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	8	40¢	$3	0xfe2bee…
07-05 04:47:35	fifwc mex eng 2026 07 05 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	10	68¢	$7	0x324ea1…
07-04 22:56:59	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	Yes	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x141edb…
07-04 22:56:56	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	Yes	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x7fe6af…
07-04 03:44:16	fifwc bra nor 2026 07 05 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	3	56¢	$2	0x91ec24…
07-04 03:43:22	fifwc bra nor 2026 07 05 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0x1480a5…
07-04 03:42:28	fifwc par fra 2026 07 04 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0x391a8c…
07-04 03:41:25	fifwc par fra 2026 07 04 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	10	82¢	$8	0xb4fb6d…
07-04 03:39:37	fifwc can mar 2026 07 04 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	7	43¢	$3	0xac9d01…
07-04 03:38:46	fifwc can mar 2026 07 04 total 1pt5	Over	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0x8f9dc6…
07-03 16:58:29	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	Yes	BUY	45	28¢	$13	0x4d6827…
07-03 16:39:28	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x233e6f…
07-03 16:27:31	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xad2546…