Realized P&L
-$27
Unrealized P&L
-$4
Hit rate
60.7%
Resolved
33
Trades
6,843
lifetime
Volume
$28.6K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$4
Open exposure
$441
30 positions
First seen
2026-04-04
last 06-09 18:34
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 12 days
Categories
Politics
66% 17% $-26
Other
33% 14% $-2
Tech
1%
Crypto
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
54 active days in 12wk • peak 925 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No -128 $-120 93¢ $-119 +$1 06-07 01:33
Trump out as President by June 30? No -48 $-47 99¢ $-48 $-0 06-09 03:26
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No -39 $-34 86¢ $-34 +$0 06-07 03:04
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No -24 $-22 95¢ $-23 $-0 06-08 14:06
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No +19 $19 97¢ $19 +$0 06-04 20:30
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election? No +16 $11 100¢ $16 +$5 06-05 01:57
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No -16 $-15 98¢ $-16 $-0 06-09 00:35
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No +14 $14 99¢ $14 +$0 06-07 01:30
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? No -12 $-12 99¢ $-12 $-0 06-09 15:18
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Yes +11 $11 100¢ $11 +$0 06-08 20:55
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No +11 $10 90¢ $10 $-0 06-08 10:35
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes +46 $16 20¢ $9 $-6 06-09 17:27
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? No +9 $9 99¢ $9 +$0 06-07 18:21
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes +39 $9 20¢ $8 $-1 06-02 15:08
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes +11 $8 68¢ $8 $-0 06-09 00:14
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No -7 $-7 99¢ $-7 $-0 06-09 21:17
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? No -7 $-7 98¢ $-7 $-0 06-08 20:33
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No -7 $-6 86¢ $-6 $-0 06-09 14:06
Epstein client list released by June 30? No -6 $-6 98¢ $-6 $-0 06-07 17:42
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No +7 $6 95¢ $6 +$0 06-04 11:48
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No -6 $-6 96¢ $-6 $-0 06-09 23:35
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No -9 $-5 62¢ $-6 $-1 06-01 22:48
Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? No -6 $-6 98¢ $-6 +$0 06-04 23:52
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes +6 $4 100¢ $6 +$2 06-04 20:59
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No +9 $8 64¢ $6 $-2 06-04 22:40
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? No -8 $-5 63¢ $-5 $-0 06-03 11:13
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No -6 $-5 94¢ $-5 $-0 05-28 12:13
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No -5 $-5 97¢ $-5 $-0 06-07 20:18
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No -5 $-5 88¢ $-5 +$0 06-08 23:41
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No +5 $4 94¢ $4 +$0 06-07 02:38