Realized P&L
+$102
Unrealized P&L
+$35
Hit rate
67.1%
Resolved
1,138
Trades
20,958
lifetime
Volume
$102.1K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$5
Open exposure
$258
30 positions
First seen
2026-04-04
last 08-31 13:59
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 144 days
Categories
Politics
65% 54% +$67
Other
34% 39% +$26
Tech
1% 67% +$2
Sports
0% 100% +$8
Pop-Culture
0% 33% +$0
Crypto
0% 0% $0
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
10 active days in 12wk • peak 122 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No -41 -$39 98¢ $-40 -$1 08-31 13:45
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No -46 -$40 82¢ $-37 +$3 08-13 16:56
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No -27 -$32 94¢ $-25 +$7 08-15 13:31
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No -22 -$24 96¢ $-21 +$3 08-31 13:51
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No -16 -$3 78¢ $-12 -$9 08-31 13:45
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No -12 -$13 98¢ $-12 +$1 08-31 13:46
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes -11 -$16 92¢ $-10 +$6 08-31 13:45
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes -11 -$15 78¢ $-9 +$6 08-31 13:50
Trump out as President before 2027? No -9 -$8 95¢ $-8 $0 08-31 13:46
Iran leadership change by December 31? No -9 -$9 86¢ $-8 +$1 08-31 13:50
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? No -8 -$8 98¢ $-8 +$0 08-31 13:51
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No -7 -$7 97¢ $-6 +$1 08-31 13:51
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes -6 -$9 96¢ $-6 +$3 08-31 13:44
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes -6 -$8 86¢ $-5 +$3 08-31 13:45
will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt5t by december 31 169 No +8 $6 68¢ $5 $0 07-21 11:49
Iran Nuke before 2027? No -5 -$5 95¢ $-5 +$0 08-31 13:51
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes +7 $3 68¢ $4 +$2 07-11 05:05
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes -11 -$10 38¢ $-4 +$6 08-31 13:53
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes +116 $2 4¢ $4 +$2 07-27 05:14
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes +118 $3 3¢ $3 +$0 07-27 18:01
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes +129 $2 2¢ $3 +$2 07-27 05:07
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes +17 $3 17¢ $3 -$1 07-11 02:58
will samuel alito announce his retirement by june 30 2027 20260630164636932 777 232 No +6 $4 46¢ $3 -$1 07-25 11:45
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes -59 $1 4¢ $-2 -$3 08-31 13:55
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes +66 $1 4¢ $2 +$1 07-27 13:19
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes -12 -$9 18¢ $-2 +$7 08-31 13:52
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year? Yes +16 $5 14¢ $2 -$2 07-12 02:08
Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? Yes +8 $2 27¢ $2 +$0 07-11 06:41
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes -13 -$8 16¢ $-2 +$6 08-31 13:54
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes -15 $4 12¢ $-2 -$6 08-31 13:55