Realized P&L
+$7.61K
Unrealized P&L
+$325
Hit rate
67.4%
Resolved
1,855
Trades
9,841
lifetime
Volume
$194.4K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$20
Open exposure
$3.72K
30 positions
First seen
2026-04-08
last 11-01 21:00
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 151 days
Categories
Other
47% 56% +$3,902
Politics
28% 57% +$2,676
Crypto
18% 65% +$385
Tech
4% 59% +$396
Sports
2% 44% +$249
Pop-Culture
0% 67% +$2
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk • peak 162 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? No +702 $686 99¢ $696 +$9 06-19 14:17
Will XRP reach $5.00 by December 31, 2026? No +412 $390 97¢ $400 +$10 06-26 00:02
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? No +379 $366 96¢ $364 -$2 10-30 04:49
Hyperbeat FDV above $300M one day after launch? No +186 $180 98¢ $183 +$3 06-27 17:40
Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027? No +190 $165 88¢ $166 +$1 10-03 04:51
Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028? Yes +514 $32 32¢ $162 +$130 10-03 04:52
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? No +156 $152 100¢ $155 +$4 06-25 01:19
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500? No +142 $109 82¢ $118 +$9 10-30 09:25
Felix Protocol FDV above $2B one day after launch? No +115 $111 98¢ $113 +$2 06-07 09:56
Opensea FDV above $300M one day after launch? No +99 $1 94¢ $93 +$92 10-13 22:26
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? No +95 $87 97¢ $92 +$5 06-27 13:30
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31? No +95 $86 92¢ $87 +$1 10-29 17:53
US imports Russian diesel by November 30? No +190 $36 46¢ $86 +$50 10-23 08:24
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490? Yes +734 $184 11¢ $83 -$101 10-30 08:52
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480? No +95 $74 87¢ $82 +$8 10-29 19:05
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480? Yes +583 $140 13¢ $77 -$63 10-25 09:30
Iran full airspace closure by December 31? Yes +211 $61 36¢ $76 +$15 10-29 00:03
Will Missouri enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027? Yes +460 $58 16¢ $71 +$14 10-31 08:09
ilhan omar federally charged by december 31 2026 Yes +190 $19 37¢ $70 +$51 10-13 16:14
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting? No +75 $21 92¢ $69 +$48 08-28 15:43
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Yes +117 $75 54¢ $63 -$12 09-30 05:59
will ethereum dip to 500 by december 31 2026 from june 8 No +63 $56 99¢ $62 +$6 06-26 07:02
next white house press secretary announced by november 30 2026 No +95 $15 66¢ $62 +$47 10-17 13:07
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026? No +135 $58 46¢ $62 +$4 09-21 15:39
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening week in 2026? No +84 $45 59¢ $49 +$4 09-21 15:39
Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026? No +50 $45 79¢ $40 -$5 08-22 07:26
Papertrade FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes +90 $32 41¢ $37 +$5 10-20 02:20
ink fdv above 100m one day after launch Yes +191 $27 18¢ $34 +$7 10-10 13:59
Surf FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes +47 $28 67¢ $32 +$3 10-30 02:50
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher? No +114 $53 28¢ $32 -$21 10-25 18:47