Realized P&L
-$204
Unrealized P&L
+$90
Hit rate
36.6%
Resolved
128
Trades
174,892
lifetime
Volume
$356.5K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$2
Open exposure
$413
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 07-20 18:20
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 17 days
Categories
Other
51% 38% $-5
Politics
29% 31% $-234
Crypto
14% 57% +$36
Tech
4% 0% $-1
Sports
1%
Pop-Culture
0%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
82 active days in 12wk • peak 752 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No -100 $-25 44¢ $-44 $-20 06-29 16:32
GRVT FDV above $500M one day after launch? Yes -169 $-36 20¢ $-35 +$1 07-05 20:56
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes +100 $10 26¢ $26 +$16 06-14 21:48
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31? Yes -100 $-34 18¢ $-18 +$16 05-29 23:53
Will Nathalie Arthaud be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? No +100 $10 17¢ $17 +$7 06-17 19:07
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Yes -333 $-22 $-17 +$5 06-24 01:28
Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026? Yes +100 $4 16¢ $16 +$12 06-26 08:47
Will Trump pardon Martin Shkreli before 2027? Yes +100 $7 15¢ $15 +$8 06-03 00:19
Variational FDV above $3B one day after launch? Yes -163 $-15 $-14 +$2 07-04 04:44
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes -301 $-19 $-13 +$6 07-02 23:28
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? Yes -216 $-14 $-13 +$1 07-02 06:01
Brian Armstrong out as Coinbase CEO before 2027? Yes +192 $15 $12 $-3 06-22 04:34
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? No -152 $-11 $-12 $-1 06-18 14:03
Will Utah use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? No -100 $-6 12¢ $-12 $-6 06-30 21:09
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026? Yes -100 $-16 11¢ $-11 +$5 07-13 19:17
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? Yes -100 $-10 11¢ $-11 $-1 06-18 23:01
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027? Yes -100 $-13 11¢ $-11 +$2 06-26 09:53
Will Vilgefortz die during "The Witcher: Season 5"? No +99 $5 11¢ $11 +$6 05-29 20:35
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch before 2027? Yes -101 $-30 10¢ $-10 +$20 06-30 03:31
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? No -89 $-13 12¢ $-10 +$3 06-18 07:47
Will Trump pardon Nicolas Maduro before 2027? Yes +200 $14 $10 $-4 05-28 10:57
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "European Union" before 2027? Yes +100 $7 $9 +$2 05-28 10:24
Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026? Yes +98 $5 $9 +$4 06-17 03:27
Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures? Yes +77 $8 11¢ $9 +$1 06-05 02:10
OKX IPO in 2026? Yes +100 $10 $8 $-2 06-27 03:04
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes -194 $-12 $-8 +$3 06-29 04:49
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? Yes +100 $9 $8 $-1 06-25 04:15
China x Japan military clash before 2027? Yes +120 $10 $8 $-2 07-04 20:11
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes -100 $-10 $-8 +$3 06-30 19:20
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? No -100 $-14 $-8 +$6 06-21 12:59