Trustworthy-Crayon — Polymarket

Realized P&L (24h)

-$52

Unrealized P&L

-$331

Hit rate

61.9%

Resolved (24h)

Trades (24h)

11,741 lifetime

Volume (24h)

$1.07M lifetime

Avg / trade

$92

Open exposure

$3.74K

27 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 11-05 19:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 170 days

Categories

Other

56% 46% -$5,481

Politics

32% 59% -$4,256

Sports

11% 36% -$94

Crypto

1% 31% -$27

Tech

0% 80% +$63

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$18

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

58 active days in 12wk • peak 25 trades/day

Open positions (27) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027?	No	-899	-$747	95¢	$-852	-$105	07-16 19:10
Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	Yes	-696	-$488	100¢	$-693	-$204	09-17 19:41
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?	Yes	-727	-$350	82¢	$-599	-$249	09-17 20:14
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	No	+440	$294	96¢	$424	+$130	08-05 07:34
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?	Yes	-4,014	-$526	7¢	$-281	+$245	11-05 19:09
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?	No	-258	-$222	94¢	$-244	-$22	04-28 20:47
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?	Yes	-326	-$213	64¢	$-210	+$2	05-07 18:53
Will Mamdani raise the minimum wage to $30 before 2027?	No	-134	-$112	95¢	$-127	-$15	05-29 00:14
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT?	Yes	-99	-$8	98¢	$-96	-$88	07-02 15:08
Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31?	No	-93	-$78	97¢	$-90	-$12	09-19 13:20
Will the US strike 9 countries in 2026?	Yes	-765	-$247	8¢	$-60	+$187	09-17 20:14
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?	No	-20	-$19	98¢	$-20	-$1	05-07 18:48
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+440	$223	4¢	$16	-$207	06-01 07:03
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.75% or higher before 2027?	No	-7	-$7	98¢	$-7	$0	05-07 18:12
Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" before 2027?	No	-7	-$7	96¢	$-7	$0	10-22 06:18
Will the US strike 13 countries in 2026?	Yes	-2,578	-$75	0¢	$-6	+$69	09-17 20:15
will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	Yes	-291	$241	1¢	$-3	-$244	06-19 03:01
Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by December 31?	No	+3	$2	97¢	$3	+$0	10-04 01:35
Will the US strike 14 countries in 2026?	Yes	-1,178	-$48	0¢	$-2	+$45	05-26 23:02
Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?	Yes	-494	-$119	0¢	$-2	+$117	09-17 19:41
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by 16% or more?	Yes	+86	$3	1¢	$1	-$2	06-11 10:44
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by December 31, 2026?	No	+0	-$7	95¢	$0	+$7	06-20 00:00
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	No	+0	-$6	76¢	$0	+$6	06-28 08:06
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	+0	$0	99¢	$0	+$0	06-14 14:31
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	+0	-$8	100¢	$0	+$8	06-28 22:53
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	+0	-$1	90¢	$0	+$1	04-28 22:03
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?	Yes	+0	$0	10¢	$0	$0	04-28 20:28

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	56	$23.9K	25,496	25,676	-180	No	-$158	05-28 16:41
US forces enter Iran by December 31?	60	$18.6K	11,240	12,702	-1,462	Yes	+$1,353	04-07 07:12
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	62	$15.6K	19,991	18,447	+1,544	Yes	+$1,238	05-29 15:19
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	150	$13.1K	10,617	25,341	-14,724	Yes	-$7,204	10-31 18:23
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	132	$12.8K	16,363	16,612	-249	No	-$3	05-13 16:38
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	95	$12.3K	12,054	11,037	+1,017	No	+$220	01-30 23:23
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	48	$11.4K	17,432	17,432	+0	Yes	-$281	02-05 13:00
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	23	$11.1K	6,331	6,331	+0	No	+$282	05-25 18:12
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	67	$10.3K	8,344	7,714	+630	Yes	+$655	02-05 13:59
will the united states win the most gold medals in the 2026 winter olympics	197	$10.0K	42,893	52,925	-10,032	No	+$142	02-14 14:41
us strikes iran by january 26 2026 337 214 511	34	$9.6K	5,372	5,372	+0	No	+$47	01-27 02:22
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	72	$9.6K	7,769	7,891	-122	Yes	+$62	01-28 20:49
us forces enter iran by march 7	32	$9.3K	4,483	5,534	-1,051	No	+$36	03-06 00:32
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	27	$8.6K	7,755	7,755	+0	Yes	-$528	05-29 10:52
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	70	$8.4K	5,538	5,915	-377	No	+$736	05-22 20:44
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	89	$8.3K	5,535	6,663	-1,129	No	+$65	03-30 11:53
us strikes iran by january 23 2026 494 711 798 734 155	77	$8.0K	7,577	7,949	-371	No	+$85	01-24 00:22
Will the US strike 5 countries in 2026?	23	$6.9K	4,573	5,018	-444	No	+$213	03-16 09:35
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	41	$6.5K	4,563	4,563	+0	Yes	-$434	06-01 13:58
cbb lou mst 2026 03 21 spread home 4pt5	39	$6.5K	6,688	6,393	+295	Michigan State Spartans	-$44	03-21 17:01
us strikes iran by january 18 2026 991	76	$6.1K	5,014	4,096	+917	No	-$24	01-18 20:23
Will the US strike 4 countries in 2026?	23	$5.8K	3,196	3,877	-680	No	+$196	03-05 12:48
cbb uk iowast 2026 03 22 spread home 4pt5	56	$5.2K	4,783	6,578	-1,795	Iowa State Cyclones	+$826	03-22 14:47
us strikes iran by february 6 2026 242 933 289 312 673 611 155 294	33	$4.9K	5,858	5,826	+32	No	+$67	02-04 19:15
will polymarket mindshare hit 80 277 757 727	35	$4.8K	4,194	4,402	-208	Yes	+$1,514	02-17 10:27
us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931	27	$4.8K	4,326	3,228	+1,098	No	+$467	02-04 18:27
Will the Republican Party win the SC-03 House seat?	6	$4.7K	2,543	2,543	+0	Yes	+$25	07-31 01:26
Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota Twins	4	$4.6K	4,560	4,560	+0	Minnesota Twins	+$0	05-12 21:20
cbb utahst vill 2026 03 20 spread away 1pt5	33	$4.4K	4,314	4,314	+0	Utah State Aggies	+$0	03-20 13:34
cbb hofst ala 2026 03 20 spread home 11pt5	3	$4.4K	4,490	4,490	+0	Alabama Crimson Tide	+$0	03-20 07:28

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-05 19:09:22	Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1,465	7¢	$107	0xe30eb3…
11-05 08:28:36	Will Mamdani raise the minimum wage to $30 before 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0x10f8bc…
11-04 15:02:18	Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?	Yes	SELL	225	9¢	$20	0x55cdb9…
11-04 15:01:10	Will the Alaska 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	No	SELL	1	3¢	$0	0x4654db…
11-04 15:01:03	Will the Alaska 2026 Senate race be within 5%?	No	SELL	282	5¢	$14	0x04f2b0…
11-03 08:46:46	Blue tsunami in 2026?	Yes	SELL	133	67¢	$89	0x96f2f7…
11-03 08:46:12	Will the Democratic Party win the TX-35 House seat?	Yes	SELL	206	73¢	$150	0xc70f48…
11-03 08:44:03	Will the Democratic Party win the TX-34 House seat?	Yes	SELL	106	89¢	$95	0x0e3060…
11-03 08:43:33	Will the Republican Party win the TN-09 House seat?	No	SELL	624	19¢	$116	0xff7b63…
11-03 08:43:28	Will the Democratic Party win the TN-09 House seat?	Yes	SELL	535	18¢	$98	0xa83512…
11-01 17:25:45	Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	351	15¢	$53	0xbe1ff9…
11-01 17:24:54	Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	17	15¢	$3	0x402dc4…
11-01 17:05:33	Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	125	15¢	$19	0xa639a2…
11-01 16:50:09	Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	940	15¢	$141	0x5e0822…
11-01 00:44:58	Will Hillary Clinton be arrested before 2027?	No	SELL	228	98¢	$224	0x1027fd…
11-01 00:44:43	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	229	98¢	$223	0x1ddc54…
10-31 23:02:01	Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	159	10¢	$16	0x2b9610…
10-31 23:01:43	Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	64	10¢	$6	0xe153e9…
10-31 20:31:55	Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	10¢	$0	0x3a4b4f…
10-31 20:20:09	Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	10¢	$3	0xa619ab…
10-31 19:05:55	Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	220	10¢	$22	0xa1d155…
10-31 19:01:45	Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	118	10¢	$12	0xfda16b…
10-31 19:00:16	Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	126	10¢	$13	0x4892f3…
10-31 18:23:43	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	838	49¢	$410	0x41b200…
10-31 18:16:25	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	41	49¢	$20	0xcfec78…
10-31 18:12:13	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	14	49¢	$7	0x4cf0a4…
10-31 17:41:19	Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	1	10¢	$0	0xf67d6a…
10-31 17:41:19	Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	387	10¢	$39	0x27bc2f…
10-31 17:39:16	Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	196	10¢	$20	0x3307be…
10-31 17:30:45	Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	175	10¢	$18	0x6dfa8f…
10-31 17:06:48	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	13	49¢	$6	0xf200e9…
10-31 16:56:34	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	41	49¢	$20	0xee6676…
10-31 16:46:31	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	41	49¢	$20	0x28c334…
10-31 16:35:58	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	41	49¢	$20	0xad71fb…
10-31 16:25:45	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	41	49¢	$20	0x99fce1…
10-31 15:48:01	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	197	49¢	$97	0x0b7a03…
10-31 14:56:15	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	4,000	49¢	$1,960	0x571395…
10-31 12:19:12	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	20	49¢	$10	0x0e803e…
10-31 12:18:09	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	54	49¢	$27	0xc51a9c…
10-31 12:18:09	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	54	49¢	$27	0xb755c6…
10-31 12:17:58	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	1,340	49¢	$657	0xbe2b90…
10-29 21:12:21	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	BUY	229	96¢	$220	0xc8fe97…
10-27 05:29:12	Will Hillary Clinton be arrested before 2027?	No	BUY	228	97¢	$222	0x296f24…
10-26 13:39:53	Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	486	10¢	$49	0xa49f55…
10-26 13:39:39	Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	300	6¢	$18	0x41f64d…
10-26 13:39:11	Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	5,623	6¢	$343	0xece79a…
10-26 11:03:45	Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	267	82¢	$219	0x7812d5…
10-26 11:03:24	Will Buffalo Bills win the 2026 AFC East?	Yes	SELL	42	70¢	$29	0x315c22…
10-26 11:02:15	Will the Colorado Avalanche be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?	No	SELL	133	89¢	$119	0xdd6756…
10-26 11:01:17	Will the Republican Party win the FL-22 House seat?	Yes	SELL	119	38¢	$45	0x737092…
10-26 10:55:09	Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	400	71¢	$284	0xc2a8a6…
10-26 10:55:06	Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	100	71¢	$71	0x768089…
10-26 10:54:35	Will the Republican Party win the MO-03 House seat?	Yes	SELL	129	94¢	$122	0x9bb191…
10-26 10:54:35	Will the Republican Party win the MO-03 House seat?	Yes	SELL	301	94¢	$283	0x074493…
10-26 10:54:05	Will the Republican Party win the FL-26 House seat?	Yes	SELL	468	81¢	$377	0xbded8b…
10-22 06:18:20	Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" before 2027?	No	SELL	7	95¢	$7	0xa81af5…
10-19 09:43:00	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	3,271	40¢	$1,308	0x9ff5d1…
10-19 03:00:11	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	1,000	40¢	$400	0xfd491a…
10-19 02:35:32	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	115	40¢	$46	0x4e4ad6…
10-18 19:34:05	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	12	40¢	$5	0xbec933…
10-18 07:28:38	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	21	40¢	$8	0xa0c648…
10-18 05:33:18	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	100	40¢	$40	0xa5a714…
10-18 03:54:14	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	500	40¢	$200	0x80b2be…
10-18 02:55:38	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	250	40¢	$100	0x9b678b…
10-18 02:40:35	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	50	40¢	$20	0x3cdf32…
10-17 21:31:20	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0x12e9f4…
10-17 18:50:35	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	240	40¢	$96	0xeebc9e…
10-17 18:27:21	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	185	40¢	$74	0x9128a1…
10-13 16:32:18	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	3	40¢	$1	0xccb9f0…
10-13 12:06:23	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	262	40¢	$105	0x57dbf0…
10-13 12:05:07	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	2	40¢	$1	0xf0c850…
10-13 12:04:50	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	336	40¢	$134	0x6f4f07…
10-13 12:04:50	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	20	40¢	$8	0x290d3a…
10-13 12:04:49	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	20	40¢	$8	0xbfca19…
10-13 04:30:38	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	320	37¢	$118	0xbf77a6…
10-13 04:30:12	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	23	37¢	$8	0x0a19d2…
10-12 11:24:56	Will Crystal Palace win the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League Championship?	No	SELL	8	93¢	$7	0xf3d780…
10-11 10:59:39	Will Ryan Gosling be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	20	63¢	$13	0x892f06…
10-11 10:52:05	Will Ryan Gosling be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	20	63¢	$13	0x4d9cd9…
10-11 09:12:00	Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?	Yes	SELL	563	18¢	$101	0xe9166b…
10-10 18:29:30	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	3	39¢	$1	0x5c269b…
10-10 17:11:04	Will a Republican Party candidate win the 2026 WA-10 House election?	No	SELL	300	35¢	$105	0xbcfcb8…
10-10 01:23:34	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	64	39¢	$25	0xfd0c0c…
10-09 13:29:58	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	100	39¢	$39	0x661f41…
10-08 20:43:47	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	11	39¢	$4	0xbf8e6d…
10-08 19:56:30	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	3	39¢	$1	0x03a064…
10-08 13:48:29	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	10	39¢	$4	0xdb330c…
10-08 09:27:39	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	191	39¢	$75	0x7fb5ec…
10-07 05:17:03	Will the Republican Party win the MO-04 House seat?	Yes	SELL	801	93¢	$745	0xb7bc4e…
10-07 03:07:06	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	4	39¢	$2	0x31e169…
10-07 00:27:27	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Montana Senate election by 21% or more?	Yes	SELL	81	8¢	$7	0xc0e024…
10-07 00:27:02	Will the Republican Party win the CA-34 House seat?	No	BUY	460	100¢	$460	0x4fa1f0…
10-07 00:26:41	Will the Republican Party win the NM-03 House seat?	Yes	SELL	119	1¢	$2	0x6d9e89…
10-07 00:26:32	Will the Republican Party win the NY-05 House seat?	Yes	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0x6fbfe0…
10-07 00:25:56	Will the Republican Party win the IL-10 House seat?	Yes	SELL	50	1¢	$1	0xd0a72e…
10-07 00:25:39	Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	75	5¢	$4	0x04b5fd…
10-06 23:33:04	Will a Republican Party candidate win the 2026 WA-10 House election?	No	BUY	300	25¢	$75	0x139a0f…
10-06 21:34:44	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	3	39¢	$1	0x12e935…
10-06 17:48:44	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	220	39¢	$86	0xde5234…
10-06 15:56:15	Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	250	39¢	$98	0xe162b8…